7 狗 在 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITCE贸期货 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心 杨璐琳 | | 工不可为农/求干印尼方;十个尼日后了工不可为扣不定去工同公庄的坑外。 | | --- | --- | | | 策略: 纸浆当前受"强供给"和"弱需求"交易逻辑拉扯，近期宏观情绪偏强，05合约预计在5400-5700元/吨区间偏 | | 强震荡。 | | | | 在 去 去 再放音中仍局却被广公开了得到了，回数据的交流的值。但不让人情感的距离处于整个时间。不在看内取个发展。本代音内容就没发出了，们 务状况或需要、投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其标定就况，据此投资。责任自负。本报告仅同特定客户推进，未经国贸期货报政许可，任何引用、转载以及向第三 | | H | 方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险，入市需谨慎。 | | ITG 国贸期货 | | | | 世界500强投资企业 | | | 国贸期货有限公司 | | | 流的衍生品综合服务商 | 入 期 市 市 官 方 网 服 热 转 ...

| 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 加拿大 | 金狮 | CFR | 780 | 6300 | 69.01 | | | 雄狮 | CFR | 730 | 5590 | -246.05 | | 智利 | 银星 | CFR信用证 90天 | 700 | 5590 | -9.09 | 注：上一日汇率 - 6.99 美元价格以及人民币价格均采用卓创数据，以13%增值税计算 | 日期 | | | 全国均价 | | | | 山东地区均价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 针叶浆 | 阔叶浆 | 本色浆 | 化机浆 | 针叶浆 | 阔叶浆 | 本色浆 | 化机浆 | | 2025/12/30 | 6073.75 | 4810.75 | 5415.00 | 3686.25 | 6245.00 | 4775.00 | 5400.00 | 3600.00 | | 2025/12/31 | 6073.7 ...

近些年，国内物价总体呈现"相对稳定"的格局。数据显示，根据国家统计局数据，2025年1-11月全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比与上年同期持平，即增 长0%。与此同时，像房子、车子、房租、电子产品、小家电、猪肉等商品的价格却在持续下跌。不过，有业内人士表示：2026年初，新一轮"涨价潮"要 来，这5样东西可能要涨，早看早准备。 第一，蔬菜瓜果价格持续大涨 在进入到2026年之后，国内蔬菜瓜果的价格在不断上涨。番茄的价格从之前的4.5元/斤，涨到现在8元/斤。青菜的价格从过去的2.5元/斤，涨到了现在5-6元/ 斤。菠菜的价格从之前的5-6元/斤，涨到了现在8元多/斤。再看水果价格也涨幅惊人，好一点的红富士苹果从6-7元/斤，涨到了现在的10-12元。香蕉的价格 也从2.5元/斤，涨到现在的3.8元//斤。很多家庭主妇表示：现在生活成本又上升了。 导致2026年初蔬菜瓜果价格上涨的原因主要有三个：①随着冬季的到来，蔬菜生长缓慢，产量出现明显下滑，涨价也就在所难免。②很多蔬菜瓜果都要进行 长途运输，而现在运输成本上升，以及蔬菜瓜果中途的损耗，从而推动了价格上涨。③像元旦、春节期间，各地居民对蔬菜瓜果的需求呈现上升 ...

纸浆价格数据 | 2026年1月6日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2026年1月6日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SP2601 5528 期货价格 | 1.02% | -0. 65% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5600 | 0. 00% | 0.00% | | SP2609 5648 (元/吨) | 1.55% | -0. 25% | (元/吨) | 针叶浆俄针 | 5400 | 0. 00% | 0. 00% | | SP2605 5612 | 1. 48% | -0. 32% | | 阔叶浆金色 | 4720 | 0. 43% | 1.07% | | 本期价格 智利银星 700 | 上期价格 680 | 月环比 2. 94% | | 智利银星 | 本期价格 5721 | 上期价格 5559 | 月环比 2.91% | | 外盘报价 日西金色 560 (美元/吨) | 540 | 3. 70% | 进口成本 | 巴西金鱼 | 4587 | 4425 | 3.66% | | 智利金星 620 ...

纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/07 SP主力合约收盘价： 5612.00 | 日期 | 2026/01/06 | 2026/01/05 | 2025/12/31 | 2025/12/30 | 2025/12/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5612.00 | 5530.00 | 5532.00 | 5568.00 | 5510.00 | | 折美元价 | 702.51 | 692.18 | 691.61 | 696.05 | 686.78 | | 距上一日涨跌 | 1.48282% | -0.03615% | -0.64655% | 1.05263% | -2.13144% | | 山东银星基差 | -22 | 35 | 58 | 22 | 80 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | -22 | 30 | 28 | -8 | 50 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 加 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 07 日 纸浆：震荡偏强 20260107 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.612 | 5, 530 | +82 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.614 | 5.544 | +70 | | | | 成交量(手) | 374.040 | 223. 450 | +150. 590 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量(手) | 220, 737 | 213, 721 | +7.016 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 131, 054 | 115. 576 | +15, 478 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -23.717 | -23.560 | -157 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | -12 | 70 | -82 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) | -892 | -830 | -62 | | | 月差 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 06 日 纸浆：宽幅震荡 20260106 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.530 | 5, 532 | -2 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.544 | - | - | | | | 成交量(手) | 223. 450 | 258. 678 | -35. 228 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量(手) | 213, 721 | 206. 636 | +7.085 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 115,576 | 104. 487 | +11.089 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -23,560 | -23, 481 | -79 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | 70 | ୧୫ | +2 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) | -830 | -832 | +2 | | | 月差 | SP03-SP05 ...

纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/06 SP主力合约收盘价： 5530.00 | 日期 | 2026/01/05 | 2025/12/31 | 2025/12/30 | 2025/12/29 | 2025/12/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5530.00 | 5532.00 | 5568.00 | 5510.00 | 5630.00 | | 折美元价 | 692.18 | 691.61 | 696.05 | 686.78 | 702.06 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -0.03615% | -0.64655% | 1.05263% | -2.13144% | 0.46395% | | 山东银星基差 | 35 | 58 | 22 | 80 | -40 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 30 | 28 | -8 | 50 | -70 | | 日期 | | | 全国均价 | | | | 山东地区均价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 针叶浆 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Pulp is currently pulled by the trading logic of "strong supply" and "weak demand", lacking a clear short - term direction. The 05 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On January 5, 2026, SP2601 futures price was 5472 yuan/ton, up 0.22% day - on - day and down 1.08% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5562 yuan/ton, down 0.14% day - on - day and down 1.56% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5530 yuan/ton, down 0.04% day - on - day and down 1.32% week - on - week [6] - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5600 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Coniferous pulp was 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4700 yuan/ton, up 0.64% day - on - day and week - on - week [6] - **Foreign Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star's foreign quote was 700 dollars/ton, up 2.94% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 560 dollars/ton, up 3.70% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [6] - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star's import cost was 5721 yuan/ton, up 2.91% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4587 yuan/ton, up 3.66% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In November 2025, coniferous pulp import volume was 72.5 tons, up 4.92% month - on - month compared to October; broadleaf pulp import volume was 176.5 tons, up 33.92% month - on - month [6] - **Shipment Volume**: The pulp shipment volume to China in November 2025 was 178 thousand tons, up 3.00% month - on - month [6] - **Domestic Production**: The broadleaf pulp production of 25 countries showed fluctuations from November 2025 to December 2025; the chemi - mechanical pulp production was relatively stable [6] - **Inventory Data**: Pulp port inventory and futures delivery warehouse inventory also fluctuated during the period from November 2025 to December 2025. As of January 4, 2026, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 199.7 tons, up 9.1 tons from the previous period, a 4.8% increase [6] - **Finished Paper Production**: The production of various finished papers such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard also fluctuated during the same period [6] Supply, Demand and Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: Suzano announced a full - scale price increase for global broadleaf pulp in January 2026. Goldfish broadleaf pulp increased by 20 dollars in Asia and 120 dollars in Europe and North America [6] - **Demand**: The pulp demand has been stable recently. The price of tissue paper has risen slightly, while the prices of other paper products are stable, and the production of major wood - pulp papers is stable [6] - **Inventory**: As of January 4, 2026, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports has shifted to a cumulative inventory trend, ending the continuous five - week destocking phenomenon [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Pulp has intense competition between the "strong supply" and "weak demand" narratives recently, and is highly volatile due to market macro funds. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - Futures prices of SP2601, SP2609, and SP2605 on December 31, 2025, were 5460 yuan/ton, 5570 yuan/ton, and 5532 yuan/ton respectively, with daily decreases of 0.66%, 0.61%, and 0.65%, and weekly decreases of 1.66%, 1.59%, and 1.57% [6] - Spot prices of coniferous pulp Silver Star, Russian Needle, and broadleaf pulp Golden were 5600 yuan/ton, 5400 yuan/ton, and 4700 yuan/ton respectively on December 31, 2025, with the Golden having a daily and weekly increase of 0.64% [6] - Foreign offers of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 700 dollars/ton, 560 dollars/ton, and 620 dollars/ton respectively, with monthly increases of 2.94%, 3.70%, and 0.00% [6] - Import costs of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 5721 yuan/ton, 4587 yuan/ton, and 5073 yuan/ton respectively, with monthly increases of 2.91%, 3.66%, and 0.00% [6] Pulp Fundamental Data - In November 2025, imports of coniferous pulp were 72.5 tons, a 4.92% increase from October; imports of broadleaf pulp were 176.5 tons, a 33.92% increase from October [6] - The pulp shipment volume to China in November 2025 was 178 thousand tons, a 3.00% increase [6] - National production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp in different weeks from November 13 to December 25, 2025, showed certain fluctuations [6] - As of December 25, 2025, pulp port inventory was 190.6 tons, a decrease of 8.7 tons from the previous period, a 4.4% decrease; futures delivery warehouse inventory was 10.1 tons [6] - Production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard in different weeks from November 13 to December 25, 2025, also showed certain fluctuations [6] Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Suzano announced a full - scale price increase for global broadleaf pulp in January 2026, with a 20 - dollar increase in Asia and a 120 - dollar increase in Europe and North America for Golden broadleaf pulp [6] - The demand side remains weak. Among mainstream wood - pulp papers, the price of cultural paper continues to decline, while tissue paper and white cardboard have a slight increase [6] - As of December 25, 2025, the sample inventory of China's main pulp ports was 190.6 tons, showing a de - stocking trend for five consecutive weeks [6]