投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纸浆周报（SP)】 纸浆交易逻辑转向"弱需求"，考虑1-5反套 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-11-24 杨璐琳 从业资格证号：F3042528 投资咨询证号：Z0015194 王新博 从业资格证号： 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 F03134647 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 纸浆交易逻辑转向"弱需求"，考虑1-5反套 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 智利Arauco公司10月针叶浆银星报价680美元/吨，阔叶浆明星报价540美元/吨，本色浆金星报价590美元/吨，进口报价总体表现为针叶 | 供给 | 偏空 | | | 浆下降，阔叶浆上涨的情况；2025年10月中国纸浆产量为208.4万吨，环比上涨10.2%，纸浆供给端较为宽松。 | | | | | 需求 | 中性偏多 | 主要木浆用纸产量基本保持稳定，白卡纸价格出现明显上涨且有去库的趋势，生活用纸价格略有上涨，其余纸种保持稳定。 | | | 截 ...

4 纸浆成本利润 5 纸浆价格与价差 2 0 2 5 . 1 1 . 2 4 纸浆周报 中泰期货股份有限公司 高萍 从业资格号：F3002581 交易咨询证号：Z0012806 CONTENTS 1 纸浆综述 目 2 纸浆平衡表解析 录 3 纸浆供需解析 能化分析师：高萍 从业资格号：F3002581 交易咨询证号：Z0012806 数据来源：隆众资讯，中泰期货整理 Part 1 纸浆综述 1.1 纸浆综述——供给端 | | 项目 | 单位 | 2025年10月 | 2025年9月 | 环比 | 累计同比 | 预估下周/月 | 综述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/14 | | | (根据三方数据线性预估) | | | 国产 | 阔叶浆产量 | 万吨 | 23.00 | 22.90 | 0.10 | -0.87% | 持稳 | | | （周） | | | | | | | | | | | 化机浆产量 | 万吨 | 23.70 | 23.60 | 0.10 | | | | ...

纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/24 SP主力合约收盘价： 5228.00 | 日期 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5228.00 | 5298.00 | 5396.00 | 5408.00 | 5474.00 | | 折美元价 | 650.10 | 650.10 | 662.95 | 664.17 | 673.11 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -1.32125% | -1.81616% | -0.22189% | -1.20570% | -0.10949% | | 山东银星基差 | 262 | 212 | 154 | 142 | 76 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 272 | 212 | 144 | 132 | 76 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

纸浆早报 SP主力合约收盘价： 5298.00 | 日期 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/17 | 2025/11/14 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5298.00 | 5396.00 | 5408.00 | 5474.00 | 5480.00 | | 折美元价 | 662.95 | 662.95 | 664.17 | 673.11 | 674.24 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -1.81616% | -0.22189% | -1.20570% | -0.10949% | -0.97579% | | 山东银星基差 | 212 | 154 | 142 | 76 | 70 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 212 | 144 | 132 | 76 | 70 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 金狮 | CFR | 78 ...

Group 1: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on November 19, 2025, was 5396.00, with a change of -0.22189% from the previous day [3]. - The closing prices and related data from November 13 - 19, 2025, are presented, showing price fluctuations and changes in basis and dollar - converted prices [3]. Group 2: Import Profitability - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import profit for Canadian Golden Lion pulp is - 136.75, for Canadian Lion pulp is - 425.04, and for Chilean Silver Star pulp is 16.68 [4]. - The calculation is based on port dollar prices, Shandong region RMB prices, and the previous day's exchange rate of 7.11 [4]. Group 3: Pulp and Paper Price Averages - From November 13 - 19, 2025, the national and Shandong region average prices of different types of pulp (coniferous, broad - leaf, etc.) remained unchanged [4]. - The prices of cultural paper, packaging paper, and living paper also showed no change during this period [4]. Group 4: Profit Margin Estimates - The profit margin estimates for different types of paper (double - offset, double - copper, etc.) remained stable from November 14 - 19, 2025 [4]. Group 5: Price Spreads - The price spreads between different types of pulp (coniferous - broadleaf, coniferous -本色, etc.) are presented, with some showing minor changes from November 13 - 19, 2025 [4].

Core Viewpoint - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) is committed to integrating deeply into the economic and social development of Sichuan, focusing on energy efficiency, clean energy supply, and technological innovation to support the construction of a national natural gas production base and contribute to local modernization efforts [6][7]. Group 1: Corporate Commitment and Achievements - Sinopec is the largest refining company globally and the largest supplier of refined oil and petrochemical products in China [6]. - The company has made significant contributions to Sichuan's economy, including paying over 20 billion yuan in taxes and investing 84.27 million yuan in community support [7]. - Sinopec has established numerous initiatives, such as "Love Station" and "Driver's Home," to enhance community welfare and support local education and industry [7]. Group 2: Technological Innovation and Energy Supply - Sinopec has focused on technological innovation to enhance oil and gas exploration and development, achieving a geological gas reserve of over 300 billion cubic meters [6]. - The company has increased its gas supply capacity from 3.5 billion cubic meters per year to 7 billion cubic meters per year, enhancing its energy supply network [6]. - Sinopec has developed a comprehensive energy service model, transitioning from a single oil supplier to a multi-energy service provider, including hydrogen and electricity [6]. Group 3: Environmental Responsibility and Green Development - Sinopec has implemented green enterprise actions and energy efficiency improvement plans, focusing on clean production and resource recycling [6]. - The company has achieved a sulfur recovery rate of over 99.93% and has established the first "waste-free" oil depot in Sichuan [7]. - Sinopec has received multiple honors for its environmental efforts, including being recognized as a national-level green factory [7]. Group 4: Community Engagement and Social Responsibility - Sinopec has actively engaged in community support, including educational assistance and agricultural product procurement, benefiting local farmers [7]. - The company has played a crucial role in energy supply during emergencies and major events, ensuring resource availability for local communities [7]. - Sinopec's initiatives have led to significant reductions in deforestation and carbon emissions, showcasing its commitment to sustainable development [7].

纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/19 | 日期 | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/17 | 2025/11/14 | 2025/11/13 | 2025/11/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5408.00 | 5474.00 | 5480.00 | 5534.00 | 5482.00 | | 折美元价 | 673.11 | 673.11 | 674.24 | 681.44 | 672.93 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -1.20570% | -0.10949% | -0.97579% | 0.94856% | -0.03647% | | 山东银星基差 | 142 | 76 | 70 | 31 | 58 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 132 | 76 | 70 | 66 | 83 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 加拿大 | 金狮 | CFR | 78 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the pulp futures market has shown a recovery since November, with prices rising over 9% from a low of 5042 yuan/ton to above 5550 yuan/ton, driven by seasonal demand and cautious purchasing behavior from paper mills [1] - UPM and Metsa reported losses in their paper businesses for the first half of the year, while Sodra's pulp business faced an operating loss of 220 million Swedish Krona in Q2, reflecting a general downturn in the pulp and paper industry [1] - The supply-demand balance for pulp is currently weak, with cautious purchasing from paper mills leading to low inventory levels, which may trigger a replenishment cycle if demand improves [1] Group 2 - The downstream paper market shows mixed signals, with white card paper prices stabilizing and recovering to May levels after a decline during the third quarter, supported by price increases from leading paper companies [2] - The demand for consumer paper remains stable, with a notable increase in exports of consumer paper by 20% to 30%, which is expected to maintain overall demand confidence in the last two months of the year [2] - The cultural paper segment, particularly double glue paper, faces challenges from digital alternatives, declining birth rates, and reduced demand for traditional print media, leading to a subdued market outlook [2][3] Group 3 - The current downturn in double glue paper is attributed to issues on the supply, inventory, and profit fronts, with a total inventory of 1.8813 million tons, marking a 7.66% year-on-year increase [3] - Despite plans from several paper companies to raise double glue paper prices by 200 yuan/ton, the price increase is driven by profit pressure rather than actual demand improvement, making it difficult for downstream acceptance [3] - Overall, while the pulp demand outlook remains optimistic with the start of the double glue paper bidding season, supply pressures persist, and overseas production cuts have not significantly impacted the market [3]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Group 2: Report's Core View - The supply of pulp is bearish as Chile's Arauco company's import quotes show a decline in softwood pulp and an increase in hardwood pulp, and China's pulp production in October 2025 rose by 10.2% month - on - month [4] - The demand is neutral to bullish as the production of major wood - pulp papers is basically stable, the price of white cardboard has increased significantly with a de - stocking trend, and other paper types remain stable [4] - The inventory is bearish as of November 13, 2025, China's mainstream port pulp inventory reached 211.0 tons, up 5.1% month - on - month after a narrow de - stocking last period [4] - The investment view is to wait and see. The pulp 01 futures have a delivery profit, and there is limited room for further increase. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy can be closed [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Chile's Arauco company's October quotes show softwood pulp decline and hardwood pulp increase. China's pulp production in October 2025 was 208.4 tons, up 10.2% month - on - month, indicating a relatively loose supply [4] - **Demand**: Major wood - pulp paper production is stable, white cardboard price rises with de - stocking trend, and other paper types are stable [4] - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, port inventory is 211.0 tons, up 10.2 tons from the previous period, a 5.1% month - on - month increase, changing from de - stocking to high - level inventory accumulation [4] - **Investment and Trading Strategy**: The pulp 01 futures have a delivery profit with limited upside. Close the 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy. For single - side trading, focus on old and new warehouse receipt situations; no specific arbitrage strategy is provided [4] PART TWO: Futures and Spot Market Review - **Market Trend**: Pulp prices fluctuated at a high level this week. Hardwood pulp spot prices rose significantly, and deliverable softwood pulp maintained a positive basis. The pulp futures price has exceeded the import cost of deliverable softwood pulp, limiting further increase and increasing the probability of warehouse receipt registration [8] - **Spot Price**: Softwood pulp silver star price is 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; softwood pulp cloth needle price is 4980 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; hardwood pulp goldfish price is 4400 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton week - on - week [17] - **External Quotes**: In October, Chile's Arauco company's softwood pulp silver star quote was 680 dollars/ton, and hardwood pulp star quote was 540 dollars/ton [20] - **Position**: As of November 14, 2025, the total pulp futures contract position was 345935, up 1.37% from last week; the main contract position was 173670 hands, up 1.10% from last week [25] PART THREE: Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In September, pulp and wood chip imports increased. In October, total pulp imports were 295.20 tons, up 11.27% year - on - year; softwood pulp imports were 69.10 tons, up 12.54% year - on - year; hardwood pulp imports were 135.60 tons, up 7.79% year - on - year [6] - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, port pulp inventory was 211.0 tons, up 10.2 tons from the previous period, a 5.1% month - on - month increase. Overseas pulp mill inventory days decreased, with 46 days at the end of September [4][41] - **Downstream Demand**: In October 2025, paper product production increased month - on - month. Double - offset paper production was 76.46 tons, up 4.8% month - on - month; copperplate paper production was 39.42 tons, up 2.4% month - on - month; household paper production was 86.06 tons, up 0.9% month - on - month; white cardboard production was 107.62 tons, up 1% month - on - month [49] - **Double - Offset Paper**: As of November 13, 2025, total double - offset paper inventory was 189.93 tons, up 0.38% week - on - week. Production was 20.88 tons, up 0.05 tons week - on - week. Production cost was 4988 yuan/ton, up 1.7% week - on - week, and gross profit was - 345 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton week - on - week [63][67][71] - **Overseas Demand**: In October 2025, European softwood pulp inventory days were 26, unchanged month - on - month; hardwood pulp inventory days were 27, down 1 day month - on - month. As of August 2025, US paper product capacity utilization was 82.52%, down 0.29% month - on - month, and the inventory - sales ratio in July was 1.02, down 0.04 month - on - month [74] PART FOUR: Pulp Futures Valuation - **Basis and Spread**: As of November 14, 2025, the Shandong Russian needle basis was - 500 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan/ton from last week; the Shandong silver star basis was 20 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan/ton from last week. The 12 - 1 month spread was - 566 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan/ton from last week [83] - **Import Profit**: As of November 14, 2025, softwood pulp import profit was 57 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton week - on - week; hardwood pulp import profit was 188 yuan/ton, up 151 yuan/ton week - on - week [87]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 26-year Russian needle pulp. The futures price may be priced based on Russian needle pulp and high-quality softwood pulp. The current futures price is close to the import cost of the delivery product, and the room for further increase is limited. It is recommended to close the 12 - 1 reverse spread position [10] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 16, 2025, SP2601 was 5480, down 0.98% day - on - day and up 1.59% week - on - week; SP2511 was 4900, down 0.12% day - on - day and up 0.41% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5462, down 0.73% day - on - day and up 1.19% week - on - week [5] - **Spot Prices**: On November 16, 2025, the spot price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5550, unchanged day - on - day and up 0.91% week - on - week; that of Russian Needle was 5400, unchanged day - on - day and up 5.88% week - on - week; that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4400, unchanged day - on - day and up 3.53% week - on - week [5] - **Foreign Quotes**: The quotes of Chilean Silver Star and Brazilian Goldfish were 680 and 530 dollars respectively, down 2.86% and up 3.92% month - on - month; that of Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [5] - **Import Costs**: The import costs of Chilean Silver Star and Brazilian Goldfish were 5559 and 4344 respectively, down 2.83% and up 3.87% month - on - month; that of Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month - on - month [5] 2. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of knitting pulp was 69.1 tons, up 12.54% month - on - month; that of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in different periods. The pulp shipment volume in China in September 2025 was 187 tons, up 13.50% [5] - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 211 tons, up 6.1% from the previous period; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.2 tons [5] - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard also fluctuated in different periods [5] 3. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 16, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 500 with a quantile level of 0.951; that of Silver Star was 650 with a quantile level of 0.88 [5] - **Import Profit**: On November 16, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 9 with a quantile level of 0.594; that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 56 with a quantile level of 0.704 [5]