纸浆价格数据 | | 2026年2月27日 | | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2026年2月27日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5470 | -1.08% | 0. 40% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5250 | 0.00% | 0.00% | | (元/吨) | SP2609 | 5312 | -0.97% | 0. 49% | (元/吨) | 针叶浆俄针 | 5100 | 0. 00% | 0. 99% | | | SP2605 | 5246 | -1.24% | 0. 15% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4600 | 0. 00% | 0. 44% | | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | 外盘报价 | 智利银星 | 710 | 710 | 0.00% | 进口成本 | 智利银星 | 5802 | 5802 | 0.00% | | (美元/吨) | 智利明星 | 600 ...

太阳纸业（002078.SZ）2025 年业绩快报点评 Q4 盈利环比改善，龙头α属性凸显 glmszqdatemark 太阳纸业发布 2025 年业绩快报： 2025 年公司实现营收 391.84 亿元（同比- 3.79%），归母净利润 32.58 亿元（同比+5.05%），扣非归母净利润 32.00 亿元 （同比-1.07%）；其中 Q4 公司实现营收 102.48 亿元（同比+5.10%），归母净利 润 7.58 亿元（同比+18.01%），扣非归母净利润 7.29 亿元（同比+13.29%）。 南宁新产能投产，2025Q4 收入同比/环比分别增加 5.10%/4.33%。价：25Q4 双胶纸/铜版纸/箱板纸/瓦楞纸/阔叶浆（内盘）/针叶浆（内盘）吨均价环比分别 变动-3.26%/-8.42%/+7.34%/+16.56%/+6.65%/-4.71%，文化纸价格承压，废 纸成本支撑下箱板瓦楞纸价格走强。量：广西基地2条高档包装纸（南宁园区PM11 和 PM12）、4 条生活用纸生产线（南宁园区 PM16、PM17、PM18 和 PM19）、 40 万吨特种纸（南宁园区 PM9）、35 万吨化学浆、15 ...

$$\mathbb{H}\quad{\overline{{\exists k}}}$$ | 第一部分 前言概要 2 | | | --- | --- | | 第二部分 基本面情况 3 | | | 一、纸浆期货与现货价格走势回顾 3 | | | 二、纸浆供应：进口高位、国产提升、库存上涨 5 | | | 三、纸浆需求：文化纸延续清淡，包装纸稳健支撑，生活用纸逐步复苏 | ...7 | | 四、文化纸行情回顾 8 | | | 五、文化纸供需宽松，库存持续高企，压制市场： | 10 | | 六、文化纸需求分析：进出口平稳，下游消费受假期扰动回落 | 11 | | 第三部分 后市展望及策略推荐 | 13 | | 一、纸浆基本面综合分析： | 13 | | 二、纸浆期货策略分析： | 13 | | 三、双胶纸基本面综合分析： | 13 | | 四、双胶纸策略分析： | 14 | | 免责声明 | 15 | 造纸板块 3 月月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 造纸板块研发报告 成本支撑，节后补库，浆价边际改善 高成本 VS 高库存，双胶纸反弹乏力 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 2 月纸浆市场"成本支撑与高库存、弱需求 ...

本好告中的偏息均源于公开可获得的资料，固贸制货力求准确可靠，但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性假任何保证。本报告不有成个人投资建议。也未针对个别投资者帮辣的投资目标， 免 责 声 務状況或需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的值何意见或建议是否符合其特定成况，相比投资，责任自负、本报告仅向榜定客户推进、未经国贸期货授权许可，任何引用、转载以及向第三 IDE 万传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险、入市需谨慎。 ITCE 贸期货 IICE超越 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 数据 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心。 杨璐琳 纸浆价格数据 | | 2026年2月26日 | | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2026年2月26日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5530 | -0. 18% | 1.88% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5350 | 0.00% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (2689.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook based on performance metrics and market conditions [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Nine Dragons Paper achieved a revenue of 37.221 billion yuan for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.966 billion yuan, which is a significant increase of 318.8% year-on-year [1]. - The company's sales volume reached 12.4 million tons during the reporting period, with an average price of 3002 yuan per ton, reflecting increases of 100 thousand tons and 66 yuan per ton year-on-year, respectively [2]. - The report emphasizes the synergy between pulp and paper operations, which has contributed to profit recovery, with a notable increase in profitability despite rising costs [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2025, total revenue is projected at 63.241 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6%. By FY2026, revenue is expected to rise to 71.392 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 13% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.767 billion yuan for FY2025, with a substantial increase to 4.039 billion yuan in FY2026, indicating a growth rate of 135% [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.38 yuan in FY2025 to 0.86 yuan in FY2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 7.48 and 9.35, respectively [5]. Product Segment Analysis - The report details that the cultural paper segment saw a revenue increase of 40.9% year-on-year, while the white card paper sales surged by 133.3% [2]. - The pricing for boxboard and corrugated paper increased, contributing to improved average prices and profitability [2]. - The company is expected to enhance its pulp self-sufficiency, which will support profitability in pressured product categories, particularly as new production capacities come online [3]. Capacity and Future Outlook - As of December 2025, the company's design capacity for paper production reached 25.4 million tons, with raw material capacity at 8.2 million tons [3]. - Future expansions include the production of chemical pulp, with new capacities expected to come online in Chongqing and Tianjin in Q4 2026, and further expansions planned for Beihai and Dongguan in 2027 [3]. - Capital expenditures are anticipated to decrease to 11 billion yuan in FY26 from 12.8 billion yuan in the previous year, easing mid-term depreciation and interest expense pressures [3].

IICE超越 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 数据 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心。 杨璐琳 纸浆价格数据 | | 2026年2月25日 | | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2026年2月25日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5540 | -0. 25% | 2. 29% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5350 | 0.00% | 1.90% | | (元/吨) | SP2609 | 5400 | 0.07% | 2. 86% | (元/吨) | 针叶浆俄针 | 5150 | 0. 00% | 1.98% | | | SP2605 | 5348 | 0. 15% | 2. 81% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4600 | 0. 00% | 0. 44% | | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | 外盘报价 | 智利 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Pulp futures lack a clear trading logic before the holiday, and the spot market transactions are stagnant, so it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents 3.1 Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices (Yuan/ton) on February 11, 2026**: SP2601 was 5428 with a daily increase of 0.22% and a weekly decrease of 1.67%; SP2609 was 5280 with a daily increase of 0.57% and a weekly decrease of 1.75%; SP2605 was 5236 with a daily increase of 0.65% and a weekly decrease of 1.65% [5]. - **Spot Prices (Yuan/ton) on February 11, 2026**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5250 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1.32%; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5050 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.98%; Hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4580 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.43% [5]. - **Outer - plate Quotes (US dollars/ton)**: Chilean Silver Star was 710, up 1.43% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 590, up 3.51% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620, with no month - on - month change [5]. - **Import Costs (Yuan/ton)**: Chilean Silver Star was 5802, up 1.42% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4830, up 3.47% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, with no month - on - month change [5]. 3.2 Pulp Fundamental Data - **Import Volume (10,000 tons)**: In December 2025, coniferous pulp was 77.8, up 7.31% month - on - month compared to November; hardwood pulp was 135.2, down 23.40% month - on - month compared to November [5]. - **Pulp Shipment Volume to China (1000 tons) in November 2025**: It was 178, up 3.00% month - on - month [5]. - **Domestic Production Volume (10,000 tons)**: Hardwood pulp production volume from January 8 - February 5, 2026, fluctuated around 24 - 25.2; Chemimechanical pulp production volume fluctuated around 23.7 - 23.9 [5]. - **Pulp Port Inventory (10,000 tons)**: As of February 5, 2026, it was 218.2, up 1.3 from the previous period and 0.6% higher month - on - month. The inventory has been increasing for five consecutive weeks [5]. - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory (10,000 tons)**: As of February 5, 2026, it was 14.2 [5]. - **Finished Paper Production Volume (10,000 tons)**: From January 8 - February 5, 2026, double - offset paper production volume fluctuated around 18.7 - 21.1; coated paper production volume fluctuated around 8.3 - 8.5; tissue paper production volume fluctuated around 28.66 - 29.87; kraft linerboard production volume fluctuated around 33.1 - 38.4 [5]. 3.3 Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - **Supply Side**: In February, Chile's Arauco Company's coniferous pulp offer was 710 US dollars/ton, unchanged; hardwood pulp Star's offer was 600 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton; natural pulp Venus's offer was 620 US dollars/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Demand Side**: The pulp demand has been stable recently, the finished paper price is stable, and the production volume has increased slightly this week [5]. - **Inventory Side**: As of February 5, 2026, the inventory of Chinese mainstream pulp ports continued to increase, and the port sample inventory has been in an increasing trend for five consecutive weeks [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp supply side has recent disturbances again, but the demand side shows weakness. Pulp lacks a clear trading logic and is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On February 10, 2026, SP2601 was 5416 yuan/ton with a 0.04% daily and -0.88% weekly change; SP2609 was 5250 yuan/ton with a 0.04% daily and -1.39% weekly change; SP2605 was 5202 yuan/ton with a 0.04% daily and -1.40% weekly change [5] - **Spot Prices**: On February 10, 2026, the spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5250 yuan/ton with no daily change and a -1.32% weekly change; Russian coniferous pulp was 5050 yuan/ton with no daily change and a -0.98% weekly change; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4580 yuan/ton with no daily change and a -0.43% weekly change [5] - **Outer - plate Quotes**: The outer - plate quote of Chilean Silver Star in February 2026 was 710 dollars/ton, up 1.43% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 590 dollars/ton, up 3.51% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, with no change [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5802 yuan/ton, up 1.42% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4830 yuan/ton, up 3.47% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton, with no change [5] Supply Data - **Import Volume**: In December 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 77.8 tons, up 7.31% month - on - month compared to November 2025; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 135.2 tons, down 23.40% month - on - month compared to November 2025 [5] - **Domestic Production**: As of February 5, 2026, the domestic production of broadleaf pulp was 24.9 tons; the production of chemimechanical pulp was 23.9 tons [5] - **Shipments to China**: In November 2025, the pulp shipments to China were 178 thousand tons, up 3.00% [5] Inventory Data - **Port Inventory**: As of February 5, 2026, the pulp port inventory was 218.2 tons, up 1.3 tons from the previous period, a 0.6% increase, and it has been in a cumulative inventory trend for five consecutive weeks [5] - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of February 5, 2026, the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 14.2 tons [5] Demand Data - **Finished Paper Production**: As of February 5, 2026, the production of offset paper was 21.10 tons; copperplate paper was 8.40 tons; tissue paper was 29.83 tons; white cardboard was 35.00 tons. The pulp demand side has been stable recently, and the finished paper price is stable, with a slight increase in production this week [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The pulp supply side has recent disturbances, but the demand side shows weakness, lacking a clear trading logic, and is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices (Yuan/ton) on Feb 9, 2026**: SP2601 at 5414, -0.66% day-on-day, -0.48% week-on-week; SP2609 at 5248, -0.57% day-on-day, -1.09% week-on-week; SP2605 at 5200, -0.65% day-on-day, -1.25% week-on-week [5] - **Spot Prices (Yuan/ton) on Feb 9, 2026**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star at 5250, -0.94% day-on-day, -1.32% week-on-week; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle at 5050, -0.98% day-on-day, -1.94% week-on-week; Hardwood pulp Goldfish at 4580, 0.00% day-on-day, -0.43% week-on-week [5] - **Foreign Offer Prices (USD/ton)**: Chilean Silver Star at 710, 1.43% month-on-month; Chilean Star at 590, 3.51% month-on-month; Chilean Venus at 620, 0.00% month-on-month [5] - **Import Costs (Yuan/ton)**: Chilean Silver Star at 5802, 1.42% month-on-month; Chilean Star at 4830, 3.47% month-on-month; Chilean Venus at 5073, 0.00% month-on-month [5] Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - **Import Volume (10,000 tons)**: In Dec 2025, coniferous pulp at 77.8, 7.31% month-on-month compared to Nov 2025; hardwood pulp at 135.2, -23.40% month-on-month compared to Nov 2025 [5] - **Shipments to China (1000 tons)**: In Nov 2025, at 178, 3.00% month-on-month [5] - **Domestic Production (10,000 tons)**: Hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp production data from Jan 8, 2025, to Feb 5, 2026, are provided [5] Inventory - **Pulp Port Inventory (10,000 tons)**: As of Feb 5, 2026, at 218.2, 0.6% month-on-month increase, with five consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation [5] - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory (10,000 tons)**: As of Feb 5, 2026, at 14.2 [5] Demand - **Finished Paper Production (10,000 tons)**: Production data of offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard from Dec 18, 2025, to Feb 5, 2026, are provided, with a slight increase in production this week [5] Summary - The pulp market continues to show an inventory accumulation trend this period, with port sample inventory accumulating for five consecutive weeks [5] Strategy - The pulp market is expected to fluctuate weakly due to supply disturbances and weak demand [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report views pulp futures as oscillating with a downward bias, lacking positive narratives [1] Core Viewpoints - The main trading logic of pulp futures is the regression to the value of warehouse receipts in the absence of new positive factors. The "strong hardwood, weak softwood" pattern persists. The supply - tight situation of hardwood pulp has eased slightly, but there are still tight expectations. The demand side lacks positive drivers. After the "strong supply - side expectation" is falsified, the futures mainly return to the "weak reality", and the current futures price may gradually regress to the actual delivery value of futures warehouse receipts [3] Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply and Inventory**: The supply - tight situation of hardwood pulp has eased, and port inventories have risen for five consecutive weeks, but the "strong hardwood, weak softwood" pattern remains. In January 2026, the shipment of hardwood pulp from three South American countries to China was 1.075 million tons, a 12% month - on - month and 20% year - on - year decrease. In February 2026, Arauco's softwood pulp offer was $710/ton (unchanged), and the hardwood pulp Star offer was $600/ton, up $10/ton [3] - **Demand**: The prices of the four major wood - pulp papers did not change significantly this week. Most factories' pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end. In January 2026, the output of the four major wood - pulp papers in China was 4.1 million tons, a 1.6% month - on - month decrease and 28.3% year - on - year increase, mainly due to Chenming Paper's resumption of production. Seasonally, paper mills are likely to issue price - increase letters after the festival, but the implementation may be poor, and the demand side lacks positive drivers [3] - **Summary and Strategy**: After the "strong supply - side expectation" is falsified by the flat offer of the new round of softwood pulp, the futures mainly return to the "weak reality", and the current futures price may gradually regress to the actual delivery value of futures warehouse receipts [3] Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Pulp futures continued to be weak this week. Hardwood pulp prices were stable at 4,550 yuan/ton, and the softwood pulp basis weakened slightly. With port inventories rising for five consecutive weeks, pulp futures lack positive drivers and the macro sentiment has weakened, so they are expected to remain weak next week [9] - **Spot Market**: The price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5,230 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 230 yuan/ton. The price of softwood pulp Ussuri was 5,020 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 80 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 230 yuan/ton. The price of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4,550 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week and a month - on - month decrease of 180 yuan/ton [16] - **Foreign Offers**: In February, the foreign offer of softwood pulp was flat, while the price of hardwood pulp increased. Arauco's softwood pulp offer in February was $710/ton (unchanged); the hardwood pulp Star offer was $600/ton, up $10/ton; and the natural pulp Venus offer was $620/ton (unchanged) [19] - **Open Interest**: As of February 9, 2025, the total open interest of pulp futures contracts was 385,128 lots, a 3% increase from last week; the open interest of the main pulp futures contract was 287,362 lots, a 4% increase from last week [21] Part Three: Pulp Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Imports**: In December, the import volume of hardwood chips increased significantly. In January 2026, the total pulp import volume was 3.246 million tons, a 23.99% increase. The softwood pulp import volume was 725,000 tons, a 4.92% increase, and the hardwood pulp import volume was 1.765 million tons, a 33.88% increase [5] - **Inventory**: Pulp port inventories have risen for five consecutive weeks. Overseas pulp mill inventory days were basically stable in November 2025. The inventory days of bleached softwood pulp were 49 days, and that of bleached hardwood pulp were 45 days [31][37] - **Downstream Demand**: As of February 6, 2026, the prices of the four major wood - pulp papers were stable, and their gross profit margins increased slightly week - on - week. In January 2026, the output of some paper products decreased slightly month - on - month, while the inventory of some paper products increased month - on - month. For example, the double - offset paper inventory was 1.915 million tons, a 0.78% month - on - month decrease and a 15.72% year - on - year increase [40][47][55] - **Overseas Market**: In December 2025, European pulp demand decreased, with softwood pulp demand at 198,600 tons (a 7.1% month - on - month and 8.3% year - on - year decrease) and hardwood pulp demand at 476,000 tons (a 11.59% month - on - month decrease and a 2.55% year - on - year increase). European pulp inventories started to accumulate again, with softwood pulp inventory at 222,800 tons (a 6.93% month - on - month and 0.71% year - on - year increase) and hardwood pulp inventory at 493,800 tons (a 9.59% month - on - month and 15.53% year - on - year increase) [77] - **Spreads**: As of February 7, 2026, the softwood pulp basis weakened slightly, with the Shandong Silver Star basis at - 4 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan/ton decrease from last week; the Shandong Goldfish basis was - 684 yuan/ton, a 66 - yuan/ton increase from last week. The 5 - 9 spread was flat at - 44 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [83]