LL 500 - K - 国贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 司不少年 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心 杨璐琳 纸浆价格数据 | | | 2025年11月24日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年11月24日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5220 | -0. 15% | -4. 64% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5400 | -0.92% | -2. 70% | | (元/吨) | SP2512 | 4712 | 0. 17% | -3. 84% | (元/吨) | 针叶浆俄针 | 5170 | -0. 58% | -4. 26% | | | SP2605 | 5278 | -0. 15% | -3.55% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4400 | 0.00% | 0.00% | | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纸浆周报（SP)】 纸浆交易逻辑转向"弱需求"，考虑1-5反套 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-11-24 杨璐琳 从业资格证号：F3042528 投资咨询证号：Z0015194 王新博 从业资格证号： 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 F03134647 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 纸浆交易逻辑转向"弱需求"，考虑1-5反套 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 智利Arauco公司10月针叶浆银星报价680美元/吨，阔叶浆明星报价540美元/吨，本色浆金星报价590美元/吨，进口报价总体表现为针叶 | 供给 | 偏空 | | | 浆下降，阔叶浆上涨的情况；2025年10月中国纸浆产量为208.4万吨，环比上涨10.2%，纸浆供给端较为宽松。 | | | | | 需求 | 中性偏多 | 主要木浆用纸产量基本保持稳定，白卡纸价格出现明显上涨且有去库的趋势，生活用纸价格略有上涨，其余纸种保持稳定。 | | | 截 ...

4 纸浆成本利润 5 纸浆价格与价差 2 0 2 5 . 1 1 . 2 4 纸浆周报 中泰期货股份有限公司 高萍 从业资格号：F3002581 交易咨询证号：Z0012806 CONTENTS 1 纸浆综述 目 2 纸浆平衡表解析 录 3 纸浆供需解析 能化分析师：高萍 从业资格号：F3002581 交易咨询证号：Z0012806 数据来源：隆众资讯，中泰期货整理 Part 1 纸浆综述 1.1 纸浆综述——供给端 | | 项目 | 单位 | 2025年10月 | 2025年9月 | 环比 | 累计同比 | 预估下周/月 | 综述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/14 | | | (根据三方数据线性预估) | | | 国产 | 阔叶浆产量 | 万吨 | 23.00 | 22.90 | 0.10 | -0.87% | 持稳 | | | （周） | | | | | | | | | | | 化机浆产量 | 万吨 | 23.70 | 23.60 | 0.10 | | | | ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期： 2025/11/24 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.07%报 4062.8 美元/盎 司，本周累计下跌 0.77%；COMEX 白银期货跌 1.27%报 49.66 美元/盎司，本周累 计下跌 2.02%。 2. 美油主力合约收跌 1.73%， ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Group 2: Report's Core View - The supply of pulp is bearish as Chile's Arauco company's import quotes show a decline in softwood pulp and an increase in hardwood pulp, and China's pulp production in October 2025 rose by 10.2% month - on - month [4] - The demand is neutral to bullish as the production of major wood - pulp papers is basically stable, the price of white cardboard has increased significantly with a de - stocking trend, and other paper types remain stable [4] - The inventory is bearish as of November 13, 2025, China's mainstream port pulp inventory reached 211.0 tons, up 5.1% month - on - month after a narrow de - stocking last period [4] - The investment view is to wait and see. The pulp 01 futures have a delivery profit, and there is limited room for further increase. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy can be closed [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Chile's Arauco company's October quotes show softwood pulp decline and hardwood pulp increase. China's pulp production in October 2025 was 208.4 tons, up 10.2% month - on - month, indicating a relatively loose supply [4] - **Demand**: Major wood - pulp paper production is stable, white cardboard price rises with de - stocking trend, and other paper types are stable [4] - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, port inventory is 211.0 tons, up 10.2 tons from the previous period, a 5.1% month - on - month increase, changing from de - stocking to high - level inventory accumulation [4] - **Investment and Trading Strategy**: The pulp 01 futures have a delivery profit with limited upside. Close the 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy. For single - side trading, focus on old and new warehouse receipt situations; no specific arbitrage strategy is provided [4] PART TWO: Futures and Spot Market Review - **Market Trend**: Pulp prices fluctuated at a high level this week. Hardwood pulp spot prices rose significantly, and deliverable softwood pulp maintained a positive basis. The pulp futures price has exceeded the import cost of deliverable softwood pulp, limiting further increase and increasing the probability of warehouse receipt registration [8] - **Spot Price**: Softwood pulp silver star price is 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; softwood pulp cloth needle price is 4980 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; hardwood pulp goldfish price is 4400 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton week - on - week [17] - **External Quotes**: In October, Chile's Arauco company's softwood pulp silver star quote was 680 dollars/ton, and hardwood pulp star quote was 540 dollars/ton [20] - **Position**: As of November 14, 2025, the total pulp futures contract position was 345935, up 1.37% from last week; the main contract position was 173670 hands, up 1.10% from last week [25] PART THREE: Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In September, pulp and wood chip imports increased. In October, total pulp imports were 295.20 tons, up 11.27% year - on - year; softwood pulp imports were 69.10 tons, up 12.54% year - on - year; hardwood pulp imports were 135.60 tons, up 7.79% year - on - year [6] - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, port pulp inventory was 211.0 tons, up 10.2 tons from the previous period, a 5.1% month - on - month increase. Overseas pulp mill inventory days decreased, with 46 days at the end of September [4][41] - **Downstream Demand**: In October 2025, paper product production increased month - on - month. Double - offset paper production was 76.46 tons, up 4.8% month - on - month; copperplate paper production was 39.42 tons, up 2.4% month - on - month; household paper production was 86.06 tons, up 0.9% month - on - month; white cardboard production was 107.62 tons, up 1% month - on - month [49] - **Double - Offset Paper**: As of November 13, 2025, total double - offset paper inventory was 189.93 tons, up 0.38% week - on - week. Production was 20.88 tons, up 0.05 tons week - on - week. Production cost was 4988 yuan/ton, up 1.7% week - on - week, and gross profit was - 345 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton week - on - week [63][67][71] - **Overseas Demand**: In October 2025, European softwood pulp inventory days were 26, unchanged month - on - month; hardwood pulp inventory days were 27, down 1 day month - on - month. As of August 2025, US paper product capacity utilization was 82.52%, down 0.29% month - on - month, and the inventory - sales ratio in July was 1.02, down 0.04 month - on - month [74] PART FOUR: Pulp Futures Valuation - **Basis and Spread**: As of November 14, 2025, the Shandong Russian needle basis was - 500 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan/ton from last week; the Shandong silver star basis was 20 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan/ton from last week. The 12 - 1 month spread was - 566 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan/ton from last week [83] - **Import Profit**: As of November 14, 2025, softwood pulp import profit was 57 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton week - on - week; hardwood pulp import profit was 188 yuan/ton, up 151 yuan/ton week - on - week [87]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 26-year Russian needle pulp. The futures price may be priced based on Russian needle pulp and high-quality softwood pulp. The current futures price is close to the import cost of the delivery product, and the room for further increase is limited. It is recommended to close the 12 - 1 reverse spread position [10] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 16, 2025, SP2601 was 5480, down 0.98% day - on - day and up 1.59% week - on - week; SP2511 was 4900, down 0.12% day - on - day and up 0.41% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5462, down 0.73% day - on - day and up 1.19% week - on - week [5] - **Spot Prices**: On November 16, 2025, the spot price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5550, unchanged day - on - day and up 0.91% week - on - week; that of Russian Needle was 5400, unchanged day - on - day and up 5.88% week - on - week; that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4400, unchanged day - on - day and up 3.53% week - on - week [5] - **Foreign Quotes**: The quotes of Chilean Silver Star and Brazilian Goldfish were 680 and 530 dollars respectively, down 2.86% and up 3.92% month - on - month; that of Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [5] - **Import Costs**: The import costs of Chilean Silver Star and Brazilian Goldfish were 5559 and 4344 respectively, down 2.83% and up 3.87% month - on - month; that of Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month - on - month [5] 2. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of knitting pulp was 69.1 tons, up 12.54% month - on - month; that of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in different periods. The pulp shipment volume in China in September 2025 was 187 tons, up 13.50% [5] - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 211 tons, up 6.1% from the previous period; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.2 tons [5] - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard also fluctuated in different periods [5] 3. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 16, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 500 with a quantile level of 0.951; that of Silver Star was 650 with a quantile level of 0.88 [5] - **Import Profit**: On November 16, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 9 with a quantile level of 0.594; that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 56 with a quantile level of 0.704 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the importance of eliminating outdated production capacity in the paper industry as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the development of the paper industry, which aims to promote green and high-end transformation [1] Industry Summary - The policy encourages the reduction of high-pollution and low-efficiency capacity, leading to the gradual elimination of old pulp and paper production lines by some paper enterprises [1] - Leading companies benefit from environmental compliance advantages and large-scale production capabilities, creating favorable conditions for capturing market share and optimizing the competitive landscape [1] Company Summary - The company is responding to rising raw material costs and the industry's "anti-involution" initiative by initiating price adjustments for cultural paper, coated paper, and specialty paper products [1] - With the gradual ramp-up of the company's 700,000-ton chemical pulp project, the self-sufficiency rate of wood pulp is increasing, effectively reducing dependence on imported wood pulp [1] - The company leverages the synergy between its "paper + chemical" dual main business to further optimize production costs in the paper business [1] - The ongoing improvement in the supply-demand dynamics of the industry, along with the gradual release of high-end capacity and continuous upgrading of product structure, is expected to enhance the profitability elasticity of the paper business, providing strong momentum for the company's long-term stable development [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, but there may be a shortage of delivery resources for bleached softwood kraft pulp in 2026, and the futures price may be priced based on Russian softwood pulp and high - quality softwood pulp; maintain the 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 13, 2025, SP2601 was 5534 with a daily increase of 0.95% and a weekly increase of 3.09%; SP2511 was 4906 with a daily increase of 0.33% and a weekly increase of 0.41%; SP2605 was 5502 with a daily increase of 0.44% and a weekly increase of 2.19% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5550 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.91%; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5400 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 5.88%; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4400 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 3.53% [5]. - **Outer - Market Quotes**: In US dollars, Chilean Silver Star was 680, down 2.86% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 530, up 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590, unchanged [5]. - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87%; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [5]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 million tons, up 12.54% month - on - month; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 135.6 million tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 million tons, up 4.50% [5]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 211 million tons, up 6.1% from the previous period; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.2 million tons [5][10]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper: double - offset paper was 20.90 million tons, copper - plate paper was 8.30 million tons, tissue paper was 28.48 million tons, and white cardboard was 36.20 million tons [5]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 13, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 494 with a quantile level of 0.951; the Silver Star basis was 644 [5]. - **Import Profit**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 9 with a quantile level of 0.594; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 56 with a quantile level of 0.704 [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The papermaking market has a pattern of oversupply and weak rebound. The pulp market has stable imports, a slight increase in domestic pulp production, and high inventory, with weak downstream demand. The double - offset paper market has sufficient supply and weak demand, and its valuation is weakly stable. The copper - plate paper market has a low gross profit margin and a slight increase in inventory. The domestic pulp market has a slight increase in production and a narrow decline in inventory, while the demand side of pulp in various paper products remains weak [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Pulp: Imports are stable, domestic pulp production increases slightly, inventory is at a relatively high level after a narrow decline (down 2.6% to 2.008 million tons), and downstream demand in areas such as tissue paper and cultural paper is weak, showing an oversupply pattern [4]. - Double - offset paper: The weekly capacity utilization rate slightly decreases (53.4%, - 0.4%), but the production increases slightly (208,000 tons, + 1.0%) due to new sample production lines at the beginning of the month. Demand is weak with sporadic publishing tenders and dull social orders [4]. 3.1.2 Logic Analysis - Pulp: There is a supply - demand mismatch and high inventory. The supply side has no contraction pressure, and the demand side is weak, so the oversupply pattern continues, and it is more affected by inventory reduction rhythm and downstream demand changes [4]. - Double - offset paper: The supply increases slightly, and the demand is weak. The previous profit pressure restricts the upward space of valuation, and it is expected to be weakly stable until demand or supply changes [4]. 3.1.3 Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see for SP2601; if port inventory falls below 2 million tons and the basis strengthens, increase long positions. Short OP2601 based on the actual spot transaction price [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the SP11 - 1 reverse arbitrage opportunity [4]. - Options: Wait and see for SP options; sell OP2601 - C - 4400 for OP options [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Double - offset paper supply: Production increases slightly to 208,000 tons (+ 1.0%), capacity utilization rate decreases to 53.4% (- 0.4%). The profit is under pressure, with an average cost of 4,902 yuan/ton (up 6.4 yuan/ton) and an average weekly profit of - 259.1 yuan/ton [8]. - Double - offset paper inventory: Production enterprise inventory is 1.355 million tons (up 0.9% month - on - month), and the on - site inventory rebounds slightly and is at a multi - year high [12]. - Copper - plate paper supply: Production decreases slightly to 85,000 tons (- 1.2%), capacity utilization rate decreases to 63.1% (- 0.5%), and the gross profit margin is still low [15]. - Copper - plate paper inventory: Production enterprise inventory is 376,000 tons (up 0.8% month - on - month), and the on - site inventory rebounds slightly [20]. - Domestic pulp supply: The production of broad - leaf pulp increases to 250,000 tons, and the production of chemimechanical pulp remains unchanged at 235,000 tons. The production profit of broad - leaf pulp rebounds slightly [24]. - Wood pulp supply: The port inventory decreases to 2.008 million tons (down 2.6% month - on - month), and the chemimechanical pulp production profit remains stable, but the market is in a stalemate [27]. - Pulp demand - tissue paper: Demand is weak and there is no new increase. The average price of tissue paper remains stable at 5,883 yuan/ton, with a light trading atmosphere and slow inventory reduction [31]. - Pulp demand - white cardboard: Production decreases to 357,000 tons (- 1.11%), capacity utilization rate decreases to 78.98% (- 0.89 percentage points), and the factory inventory decreases to 1.07 million tons (- 0.93%) [34]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - Double - offset paper price: The average enterprise price of 70g double - offset paper is stable at 4,642.9 yuan/ton [41]. - Copper - plate paper price: The average enterprise price of 157g copper - plate paper is stable at 4,975 yuan/ton [41]. - Pulp prices: The average spot tax - included price of imported softwood pulp is 5,424 yuan/ton (+ 0.3%); the average price of hardwood pulp is 4,250 yuan/ton (unchanged); the average price of kraft pulp is 5,079 yuan/ton (+ 1.6%); the average price of chemimechanical pulp is 3,700 yuan/ton (unchanged) [47][48].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, but there may be a shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 Russian needle pulp. The futures price may be priced based on the Russian needle pulp and high - quality softwood pulp. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained [10] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, SP2601 was 5484 with a daily increase of 0.29% and a weekly increase of 3.71%; SP2511 was 4888 with a daily increase of 0.37% and a weekly decrease of 0.04%; SP2605 was 5468 with a daily increase of 0.29% and a weekly increase of 2.86% [5] - **Spot Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5550 with a daily and weekly increase of 0.91%; Russian Needle was 5400 with a daily and weekly increase of 5.88%; hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4380 with a daily and weekly increase of 3.06% [5] - **Outer - Market Quotes**: In November 2025, the outer - market quote for Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, down 2.86% from the previous period; Japanese Xihui was 530 dollars/ton, up 3.92% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period [5] - **Import Costs**: In November 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged from the previous period [5] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.54%; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.79%. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [5] - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 200.8 tons, a decrease of 5.3 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6%. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.4 tons [5] - **Demand**: In November 2025, the production of offset paper was 20.80 tons; coated paper was 8.50 tons; tissue paper was 28.36 tons; white cardboard was 35.70 tons [5] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 11, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 512 with a quantile level of 0.953; the Silver Star basis was 662 with a quantile level of 0.889 [5] - **Import Profit**: On November 11, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 9 with a quantile level of 0.593; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 36 with a quantile level of 0.681 [5] Market Situation Analysis - **Supply - Side**: In October, Chile's Arauco Company's softwood pulp Silver Star was quoted at 680 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars/ton; hardwood pulp Star was quoted at 540 dollars/ton, unchanged [5] - **Demand - Side**: White cardboard has seen a significant increase in both volume and price, and cultural paper has issued frequent price increase letters recently, but whether the price increases can be implemented remains to be observed. Overall demand is still weak [10] - **Inventory - Side**: As of November 6, 2025, the inventory of China's major pulp ports was 200.8 tons, a decrease of 5.3 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6%, showing a narrow - range de - stocking trend [10]