| | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | ITC 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | SAL. | | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 | 杨璐琳 | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 | | | 2025/8/26 | | | | | | | 纸浆价格数据 | | | | | | | | | 2025年8月25日 | 日环比 | 周珂比 | | | 2025年8月25日 | HMM | 10 WIND | | | SP2601 | 5402 | 0. 71% | -1. 35% | | 针叶浆银星 | 5800 | 0. 00% | -0. 85% | | 期货价格 | SP2511 | 5136 | 0. 55% | -2. 21% | 现货价 | 针叶浆俄针 | 5180 | 0. 58% | -2. 26% | | | SP2509 | 5088 | 0. 59% | -2. 15 ...

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Group 2 - Core View of the Report - Pulp prices in the futures market generally declined on August 19, 2025; while some spot prices remained stable and some increased. The supply side has price - increase announcements and production - reduction news; the demand side is still bearish for pulp prices as mainstream paper product prices have not stopped falling; and the inventory shows a cumulative trend. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see [1] Group 3 - Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Pulp Price Data Futures Prices - On August 19, 2025, SP2601 was 5420, down 1.02% day - on - day and 1.24% compared to Philip; SP2511 was 5178, down 1.41% day - on - day and 1.63% compared to Philip; SP2509 was 5132, down 1.31% day - on - day and 1.61% compared to Philip [1] Spot Prices - On August 19, 2025, the spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850, unchanged day - on - day and year - on - year; Russian Needle was 5300, unchanged day - on - day and up 0.95% year - on - year; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4200, unchanged day - on - day and up 1.20% year - on - year [1] Outer - Disk Quotes - In August 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, down 2.70% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 510 dollars, up 4.08% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [1] Import Costs - In August 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4182, up 4.03% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged month - on - month [1] 2. Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, down 6.09% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp was 143.5 tons, up 10.98% month - on - month. The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated slightly in August 2025 [1] Inventory - As of August 14, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 209.9 tons, up 2.5% month - on - month; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 25.4 tons [1] Demand - In August 2025, the production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard fluctuated slightly [1] 3. Pulp Valuation Data - On August 19, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 122, with a quantile level of 0.867; Silver Star basis was 672, with a quantile level of 0.9. The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 34, with a quantile level of 0.547; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 18, with a quantile level of 0.653 [1] 4. Summary Supply - Side - Brazil's Suzano announced a 20 - dollar/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025, and its commodity pulp production in the next 12 - month operating cycle will be about 3.5% lower than its annual nominal capacity. Chile's Arauco notified the August quotes, with supply reductions [1] Demand - Side - Current paper product demand is basically stable, but mainstream paper product prices have not stopped falling, which is bearish for pulp prices [1] Inventory - Side - As of August 14, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 209.9 tons, up 2.5% month - on - month, showing a cumulative trend [1] Strategy - Pulp prices have dropped significantly under the influence of the commodity macro - environment, but the spot price remains stable. The broadleaf pulp basis has strengthened to over - 1000 yuan/ton, and the futures valuation is low. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - The fundamentals of pulp are strongly driven, but commodity futures are weak. It is expected that pulp futures will fluctuate [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - Futures prices: On August 18, 2025, SP2601 was 5476, down 0.90% day-on-day and up 0.07% week-on-week; SP2511 was 5308, down 0.23% day-on-day and up 0.08% week-on-week; SP2509 was 5200, down 0.84% day-on-day and down 0.04% week-on-week [1] - Spot prices: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850, unchanged day-on-day and week-on-week; Russian Needle was 5300, unchanged day-on-day and up 0.95% week-on-week; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4200, unchanged day-on-day and up 1.20% week-on-week [1] - Foreign offers: Chilean Silver Star's foreign offer was 720, down 2.70% month-on-month; Brazilian Goldfish was 510, up 4.08% month-on-month; Chilean Venus was 620, unchanged month-on-month [1] - Import costs: Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month-on-month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4182, up 4.03% month-on-month; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged month-on-month [1] Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - Import volume in June 2025: Coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, down 6.09% month-on-month compared to May; Broadleaf pulp was 143.5 tons, up 10.98% month-on-month compared to May [1] - Shipment volume to China in May 2025 was 140 tons, up 3.30% month-on-month compared to April [1] - Domestic production: Broadleaf pulp and Chemimechanical pulp showed fluctuations in different periods [1] - Supply-side news: Brazil's Suzano announced a $20/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025, and its commercial pulp production in the next 12 months will be about 3.5% lower than its annual nominal capacity; Asia Symbol announced a 150 yuan/ton increase in the acceptance price of broadleaf pulp, only for long-term contract customers; pulp foreign offers decreased in volume and increased in price [1] Demand - This week, the output of major finished paper increased slightly, but the prices of finished paper remained low, providing weak support for pulp overall [2] Inventory - As of August 14, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 209.9 tons, an increase of 5.1 tons from the previous period, a 2.5% month-on-month increase, showing an inventory accumulation trend [2] Pulp Valuation Data - On August 18, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was -6, with a quantile level of 0.68; the Silver Star basis was 544, with a quantile level of 0.857 [1] - On August 18, 2025, the import profit of Coniferous pulp Silver Star was -34, with a quantile level of 0.547; the import profit of Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 18, with a quantile level of 0.653 [1]

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp futures 01 contract: The previous settlement price was 5,498 yuan/ton, the closing price was 5,476 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.40% [7] - Shandong wood pulp market: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp was 5,200 - 6,700 yuan/ton, with the low - end price up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing offer was 5,850 yuan/ton [7] - Imported hardwood pulp: The new round of foreign offers were raised by 20 US dollars/ton, no change for softwood pulp [7] - June chemical pulp shipments: The shipments of 20 major pulp - producing countries increased by 4.7% year - on - year, with softwood pulp down 2.4% and hardwood pulp up 10.1% [7] - July pulp imports: The total pulp imports in China were 2.877 million tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous month and a 23.7% increase year - on - year [7] - August 14 inventory: The weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 4.96% month - on - month, with inventory at Qingdao and Changshu ports rising [7] - Market situation: Still in the off - season, paper mills' processing profits have not improved significantly. The pulp rebound is under pressure [7] Group 3: Industry News - On August 18, the CSRC approved the registration of offset printing paper futures and options on the SHFE. China is the world's largest producer and consumer of offset printing paper, with a market size of nearly 50 billion yuan. The new financial derivatives will help improve pricing efficiency and guide production planning [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply - demand situation of pulp shows initial marginal improvement. International pulp mills are actively reducing production and switching production, leading to a tightening of domestic circulating supply. The downstream procurement sentiment has slightly improved, with leading paper mills entering the market to purchase. It is expected that the price of the pulp 2511 contract will oscillate and rebound in the range of 5200 - 5450 this week [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: Last week, the spot market price of pulp showed that softwood pulp remained relatively stable, while hardwood pulp increased slightly. Among them, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star in Shandong was 5850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the price of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4200 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton (or +2.94%) from the previous week. The prices of chemical mechanical pulp, natural color pulp, and non - wood pulp were flat compared to the previous week [10][13]. - **Pulp Futures Review**: Last week, the main pulp futures contract SP2511 oscillated and rebounded in a range of more than 140 points, closing at 5306 yuan/ton for the week, up 114 yuan/ton (or +2.2%) [14]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: Due to the smaller increase in the spot price of softwood pulp than that of pulp futures, the basis discount has decreased. The basis discount between softwood pulp and the closing price of the main futures contract is 544 yuan/ton, a reduction of 144 yuan/ton compared to last week [18]. - **Log Futures Review**: Last week, the main log futures contract 2509 showed a slight oscillatory decline, closing at 815.0 yuan/cubic meter for the week, down 15.5 yuan/cubic meter (or -1.87%) from the previous week [19]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production**: Last week, the pulp production was 48.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 tons (or +0.42%). It is expected that the domestic production of hardwood pulp will be about 21.0 tons and chemical mechanical pulp will be about 20.9 tons this week [4][21]. - **Capacity Utilization of Hardwood Pulp and Chemical Mechanical Pulp**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic hardwood pulp was 76.6%, up 0.3% week - on - week; the capacity utilization rate of domestic chemical mechanical pulp was 87.1%, up 0.4% week - on - week [26]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In July 2025, the domestic pulp production was 212.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.2 tons (or +2.51%) [27]. - **Monthly Capacity Utilization of Chemical Mechanical Pulp and Hardwood Pulp**: In July 2025, the domestic chemical mechanical pulp production was 89.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.1 tons (or +4.8%), with a capacity utilization rate of 84.2%, down 0.8% month - on - month; the hardwood pulp production was 91.7 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6 tons (or +2.92%), with a capacity utilization rate of 83.0%, up 2.4% month - on - month [31]. - **Monthly Production Profit of Hardwood Pulp and Chemical Mechanical Pulp**: In July 2025, the production profit of hardwood pulp was 512.7 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19.1 yuan/ton (or +3.87%); the production profit of chemical mechanical pulp was - 307.9 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month loss reduction of 69 yuan/ton [35]. - **Pulp Imports**: In July 2025, the pulp import volume was 287.68 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.38 tons (or -5.08%), and a year - on - year increase of 55.22 tons (or +23.75%) [36]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Tissue Paper Market**: Last week, the domestic tissue paper production was 28.05 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 tons (or +0.68%); the capacity utilization rate was 63.5%, up 0.4% week - on - week [40]. - **Downstream Cultural Paper Market**: Last week, the copperplate paper production was 7.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 tons (or +1.3%); the offset paper production was 20.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 tons (or -1.43%) [42]. - **Downstream Packaging Paper Market**: Last week, the white cardboard production was 31.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8 tons (or +2.61%); the white board paper production was 18.0 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 tons (or -3.23%); the corrugated paper production was 46.17 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.91 tons (or -1.93%); the boxboard paper production was 61.91 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.92 tons (or +1.51%) [45][48]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: Last week, the prices of tissue paper and cultural paper remained stable compared to the previous week; the price of white board paper increased slightly, while the price of white cardboard remained stable; the price of corrugated paper increased slightly, while the price of boxboard paper remained stable [49][52][55]. - **Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization**: In July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tissue paper was 65.33%, up 2.33% month - on - month; the capacity utilization rate of white cardboard was 74.59%, up 1.29% month - on - month; the capacity utilization rate of offset paper was 55.96%, down 0.41% month - on - month; the capacity utilization rate of copperplate paper was 57.6%, up 1.25% month - on - month [57][59]. - **Domestic Actual Pulp Consumption**: In July 2025, the actual pulp consumption was 332.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.6 tons (or +3.94%), and a year - on - year increase of 10.6 tons (or +3.3%) [63]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Currently, the overall pulp port inventory shows an accumulation trend, with the inventory of mainstream port samples at 209.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.1 tons (or +2.49%); among them, the inventory at Qingdao Port was 137.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0 tons (or -0.72%); the inventory at Changshu Port was 53.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.1 tons (or +10.52%); the inventory at Tianjin Port was 6.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 tons (or +5.0%) [64][68]. - **Pulp Futures Warehouse Receipts**: Currently, the pulp futures warehouse receipts are 24.18 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2455 tons (or -1.01%); the total warehouse receipts in Shandong are 22.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1856 tons (or -0.82%) [69].

供给端: 巴西Suzano宣布2025年8月亚洲市场价格上涨20美元/吨; 且其未来12个月运营周期的商品纸浆产量将比其每年的商品纸 浆名义产能下降约3.5%; 亚太森博宣布阔叶浆接单价格上调150元/吨，仅维持长协客户供应; 纸浆外盘量减价增。 需求端:本周主要成品纸产量小幅上涨;成品纸价格持续低迷,整体对纸浆支撑较弱。 库存端: 截止2025年8月7日,中国纸浆主流港口样本库存量: 204.8万吨，较上期去库5.7万吨，环比下降2.7%, 库存量在本周期 总结 呈现去库的走势。 策略:纸浆期货偏强运行。 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | | | TG 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 24 | | | | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | | | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 | | | 2025/8/11 | | | 农产品研究中心 >> | | | | 杨璐琳 | 从业资格号:F3042528 | | | | | | 纸浆价格数据 ...

| | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | ITC 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | SAL. | | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 | | | 2025/8/7 | | | | | | 农产品研究中心 | 杨璐琳 纸浆价格数据 | | | | | | | | | 2025年8月6日 | 日环比 | 日本版 | | | 2025年8月6日 | HMM | 目WN | | | SP2601 | 5428 | 0. 44% | -1. 34% | | 针叶浆银星 | 5850 | 0. 00% | -1. 18% | | 期货价格 | SP2605 | 5404 | -0. 30% | -1.22% | 现货价 | 针叶浆俄针 | 5180 | 0. 00% | -4. 43% | | | SP2509 | 5170 | 0. 19% | -2.93% | | 阔叶 ...

| 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | | | ITG 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SAL. | | | | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | | | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 | | | | | | 农产品研究中心 >> | | | | 杨璐琳 | 从业资格号:F3042528 | | | 2025/8/5 | | | 纸浆价格数据 | | | | | | | | | | | SP2601 | | 2025年8月4日 5396 | 日环比 -0. 37% | 周环比 -1.68% | | 针叶浆银星 | 2025年8月4日 | OFFIT HMM | 10 min | | | | | | | | | 5850 | 0. 00% | -1. 18% | | 期货价格 SP2605 | | 5368 | -0. 07% | 0. 71% | 现货价 | 针叶浆俄针 | 5180 | -2. 26% | -4. 95% | | SP250 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纸浆周报（SP)】 宏观情绪降温，纸浆重回基本面定价 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-08-04 杨璐琳 从业资格证号：F3042528 投资咨询证号：Z0015194 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 纸浆：宏观情绪降温，纸浆重回基本面定价 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 据PPPC，世界20国商品浆供应商库存5月底为49天（标准计算方式）。漂白软木浆库存天数较上期增加5天，为46天；漂白硬木浆库存 天数较上期增加4天，为51天。世界20国商品浆供应商5月总出货量环比上涨1.9%。2025年5月南美三国对中国阔叶浆发运量增加，加拿 | | | | 大针叶浆发运量增加，整体供应量增加；当前北美/北欧的针叶浆报价在680-710美元/吨，阔叶浆进口报价在500美元/吨。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | 本周主要成品纸产量基本保持稳定，主流成品纸价格仍有所下降，整体淡季氛围不改。 ...

Price Trends - The price of waste paper has increased from 0.3 yuan per jin to 0.4-0.5 yuan per jin, leading to a rise in the prices of corrugated paper and boxboard paper by 30-50 yuan per ton due to increased costs [1][3] - Despite the price increases in packaging paper, prices for paper types made from pulp, such as white card paper and cultural paper, have been declining due to excess capacity and insufficient demand [1][7] Industry Dynamics - The paper industry is experiencing a negative cycle where expanding production does not lead to profitability, as companies feel pressured to expand to maintain market share [2] - The domestic paper industry is projected to add over 10 million tons of new capacity from 2023 to 2024, while demand growth is expected to be only 1.5% in 2024, leading to significant supply-demand imbalances [8] Cost Pressures - Rising operational costs have prompted multiple price increase notices from companies like Nine Dragons Paper, with the latest being the sixth notice in July alone [3][4] - The increase in waste paper prices due to heavy rainfall has contributed to the cost pressures faced by paper manufacturers [3][4] Market Sentiment - Despite the price increases, the transmission of these costs to the packaging sector remains uncertain due to weak terminal demand, leading to competitive pricing among packaging companies [5][6] - The overall profitability of the industry is under pressure, with some companies reporting losses while others are barely breaking even [12] Future Outlook - The paper prices are expected to remain weak in the second half of the year, with companies focusing on cost management to maintain profit margins [14] - The industry is likely to see further consolidation as smaller companies may struggle to survive in the current environment, leading to a potential increase in market share for larger firms [12][13]