Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Shock" rating for pulp investment, expecting it to fluctuate between 5100 - 5400 this week [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pulp has returned to fundamental pricing due to the cooling of macro - sentiment. The current supply is increasing, demand is in a weak off - season, inventory shows a slight downward trend, trade profit has decreased, and it has entered a low - valuation state with limited further decline space [3][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. In May 2025, the inventory days of world 20 - country commodity pulp suppliers increased, and the total shipment volume increased month - on - month. The shipments of broadleaf pulp from three South American countries and coniferous pulp from Canada to China increased. The current coniferous pulp quotes in North America/Northern Europe are 680 - 710 US dollars per ton, and the import quote for broadleaf pulp is 500 US dollars per ton [3] - **Demand**: It is bearish. This week, the production of major finished paper remained basically stable, and the prices of mainstream finished paper continued to decline, with the off - season atmosphere unchanged [3] - **Inventory**: It is neutral. As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 210.5 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 1.8% [3] - **Trade Profit**: It is neutral. After the sharp decline in pulp prices this week, the import profit decreased. As of August 1, the import profit of coniferous pulp was - 16.9 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 76 yuan per ton [3] - **Valuation**: It is strong. After the sharp decline in pulp futures this week, the basis of broadleaf pulp strengthened to around - 1000 yuan per ton, returning to a low - valuation state [3] - **Investment View**: It is expected to be in a shock state. Pulp has returned to the low - valuation range, and the further decline space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate between 5100 - 5400 this week [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see. There is no clear arbitrage strategy. Attention should be paid to commodity macro - sentiment [3] Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: Last week, pulp prices dropped significantly due to the decline in macro - sentiment, while spot prices remained basically stable. The spread between broadleaf pulp is now around - 1000 yuan per ton, in a low - valuation state with limited further decline space [7] - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of pulp decreased slightly. The price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan per ton and a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan per ton. The price of coniferous pulp Buzhen was 5100 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 400 yuan per ton and a month - on - month increase of 180 yuan per ton. The price of broadleaf pulp Jinyu was 4100 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan per ton and a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan per ton [16] - **External Quotes**: In May, the external quotes of coniferous pulp dropped significantly, and the price of broadleaf pulp declined. In July, the price of broadleaf pulp from Chile Arauco was 500 US dollars per ton net, and the offer price of natural pulp Venus was 590 US dollars per ton [18][21] - **Disk Position**: The total position of pulp futures was stable, while the position of the 09 contract dropped significantly. As of August 1, 2025, the total position of pulp futures contracts was 280946 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 8.00%; the position of the main pulp futures contract was 99233 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 32.76% [22][24] Part Three: Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In June, the pulp import volume increased. The total pulp import volume was 30160 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.25%. The import volume of coniferous pulp was 7220 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.75%, and the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 12930 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.84% [5] - **Shipment Volume**: In May 2025, the W20 pulp shipment volume was 4.125 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.9%. Among them, the shipment volume of coniferous pulp was 1.68 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.4%, and the shipment volume of broadleaf pulp was 2.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2% [41] - **Inventory**: The port and futures inventories decreased. As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 210.5 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 1.8%. Overseas/European pulp mill inventories increased [3][47] - **Downstream Demand**: - **Price**: As of August 1, 2025, the prices of four major wood - pulp papers were declining. The price of offset paper was 4994 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.56%; the price of coated paper was 5320 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.48%; the price of household paper was 5583 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.47%; the price of white cardboard was 3900 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.85% [53] - **Production**: In June 2025, the production of cultural paper decreased, while that of household paper and white cardboard increased. The production of offset paper was 68.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6% and a year - on - year decrease of 16%; the production of coated paper was 36.62 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%; the production of household paper increased by 2% month - on - month and 11.2% year - on - year; the production of white cardboard increased by 2% month - on - month and 10.6% year - on - year [59] - **Inventory**: As of June 2025, the inventories of finished paper increased. The inventory of offset paper was 183 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.6% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3%; the inventory of coated paper was 123 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.7%; the inventory of household paper was 40 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.1% and a year - on - year increase of 16.9%; the inventory of white cardboard was 219.14 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.2% [66] - **Overseas Demand**: In June 2025, European pulp demand declined, and US demand weakened. The available days of European coniferous pulp inventory were 28.5, a month - on - month increase of 0.81 and a year - on - year increase of 4.47; the available days of broadleaf pulp inventory were 26.7, a month - on - month increase of 3.94 and a year - on - year increase of 5.04. As of June 2025, the capacity utilization rate of US paper products was 81.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. In May 2025, the inventory - to - sales ratio of paper products was 1.05, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 and a year - on - year increase of 0.06 [72] Part Four: Pulp Futures Valuation - **Spread**: As of August 1, 2025, the basis of Shandong Russian coniferous pulp was - 86 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 66 yuan per ton; the basis of Shandong Silver Star was 664 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 264 yuan per ton. The 9 - 1 month spread of pulp was - 238 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 186 yuan per ton [79] - **Import Profit**: As of August 1, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp was - 17 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 76 yuan per ton; the import profit of broadleaf pulp was 30 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 34 yuan per ton [82] - **Needle - Broadleaf Spread**: As of August 1, 2025, the needle - broadleaf spread in Shandong, China was 1797 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 110 yuan per ton. In June 2024, the needle - broadleaf import ratio in China was 0.47, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09 [85]