1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [5] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon's fundamentals are improving marginally and entering a destocking state, but there are differences between reality and expectations. Short - term, a buy - on - dips strategy is recommended [2][4]. - The increase in polysilicon delivery brands may have a negative impact on the sentiment of the futures market. In the short - term, the price may range from 45,000 to 57,000 yuan/ton, and in the long - term, it may reach over 60,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon increased by 215 yuan/ton week - on - week to 8,710 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 8,550 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon increased by 1,395 yuan/ton to 50,790 yuan/ton. The transaction price of N - type re -投料 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 47,200 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon Reality and Expectations Diverge, Polysilicon Adds Delivery Brands - **Industrial silicon**: Futures prices fluctuated. Xinjiang large factories resumed production slightly this week. In August, the supply may increase marginally by 2 - 3 tons, but due to the large - scale resumption of polysilicon production, industrial silicon may still destock in August [13]. - **Organic silicon**: Prices fluctuated downward. The overall enterprise start - up rate was 77.4%, and the weekly output was 5.12 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.11%. It is expected that prices will oscillate weakly [14]. - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices fluctuated. In August, production is expected to increase to 12.5 - 13 tons, resulting in a monthly surplus of 1.5 - 2 tons. The first - stage price control of the "anti - involution" is basically determined, and attention should be paid to the follow - up progress [15]. - **Silicon wafers**: Prices remained stable. The inventory of silicon wafer factories increased. In August, the expected production was 53GW, and it may increase to 57 - 58GW in the next two weeks. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate [16]. - **Battery cells**: Prices remained stable. The inventory of photovoltaic battery export factories decreased. In August, the production of Chinese enterprises' domestic batteries was about 58GW. Prices are expected to oscillate [17]. - **Components**: Prices oscillated. In August, the production of components did not decrease significantly, and the subsequent production may continue to increase. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the follow - up bidding situation [18]. - **New delivery brands**: Xinjiang Gerns Energy Technology Co., Ltd. and Xinjiang Qiya Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. were added as polysilicon futures registered brands, applicable to PS2511 and subsequent contracts. The new brands may have an impact on PS2512 and subsequent contracts [19]. 3.3 Investment Advice - **Industrial silicon**: Recommend a buy - on - dips strategy in the short - term, with risks in large - factory resumption and polysilicon production cuts [4]. - **Polysilicon**: Unilateral trading should adopt a bullish view on pullbacks. Consider buying PS2511 contracts on dips or selling out - of - the - money put options. Pay attention to the 9 - 12 positive spread arbitrage opportunity [4]. 3.4 Hot News - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added two polysilicon futures registered brands [22]. - The US launched a second sunset review investigation on Chinese crystalline silicon photovoltaic products [23]. 3.5 Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial silicon**: Includes data on spot prices, weekly production, and inventory [25][27][32]. - **Organic silicon**: Covers data on DMC spot prices, weekly profits, inventory, and weekly production [34][35]. - **Polysilicon**: Involves data on spot prices, weekly gross profits, factory inventory, and enterprise weekly production [40][43]. - **Silicon wafers**: Contains data on spot prices, average net profits, factory inventory, and enterprise weekly production [44][46][47]. - **Battery cells**: Comprises data on spot prices, average net profits, export factory inventory, and enterprise monthly production [49][51][54]. - **Components**: Includes data on spot prices, average net profits, factory inventory, and enterprise monthly production [57][59][60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Volatility [6] - Polysilicon: Volatility [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "anti-involution" sentiment has declined, but polysilicon still has policy support. The industrial silicon market may see marginal improvement, and it's difficult to reach previous low prices. The polysilicon spot price increase provides a lower limit for the futures market, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2509 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 1,225 yuan/ton to 8,500 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price of SMM's East China oxygenated 553 decreased by 400 yuan/ton to 9,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 9,000 yuan/ton. The PS2509 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1,825 yuan/ton to 49,200 yuan/ton. The transaction price of N-type reclaimed feedstock increased by 300 yuan/ton to 47,100 yuan/ton [10] 2. "Anti-involution" Sentiment Declines, Polysilicon Still Has Policy Support - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main industrial silicon futures contract dropped significantly this week. The weekly output was 78,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.59%. The social inventory increased by 5,000 tons, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 6,000 tons. Xinjiang's large factories have unstable operations, and production is expected to increase slightly. Sichuan and Yunnan's silicon factories are also expected to have a small increase. The 7 - month industrial silicon balance sheet is estimated to have a de - stocking of about 30,000 tons, and it may still de - stock in August [12] - **Organosilicon**: The price of organosilicon fluctuated this week. The overall enterprise operating rate was 72.26%, the weekly output was 47,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.82%, and the inventory was 46,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.41%. The price is expected to fluctuate [12][13] - **Polysilicon**: The main polysilicon futures contract first rose and then fell this week. The average spot transaction price increased. The main prices of silicon materials this week were 42 - 47 yuan/kg for dense materials, 45 - 50 yuan/kg for dense reclaimed materials, and 43 - 46 yuan/kg for granular silicon. As of July 31, the inventory of Chinese polysilicon factories was 229,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons month - on - month. The production in August is expected to reach 125,000 - 130,000 tons, resulting in a monthly surplus of 20,000 - 30,000 tons [14] - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of silicon wafers increased as expected this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers were 1.20/1.35/1.55 yuan/piece, with an average increase of 0.1 yuan/piece. The price is expected to increase slightly [15] - **Battery Cells**: The price of battery cells increased as expected this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 battery cells were 0.29/0.285/0.285 yuan/watt, with increases of 0.02/0.015/0.015 yuan/watt respectively. The price should continue to rise, but the acceptance of the component end needs to be considered [16] - **Components**: The price of components fluctuated this week. The price of centralized components was stable, and the price of distributed components increased but with low trading volume. The component production in August is not expected to decrease significantly. The short - term component price is expected to fluctuate [17] 3. Investment Advice - **Industrial Silicon**: The "anti - involution" trading declined rapidly, and the industrial silicon futures price fell. In the short term, the decline sentiment has not been fully released, but the fundamentals have improved marginally. There may be a second "anti - involution" trading. Short positions can consider gradually taking profits, and then consider long positions after the macro - sentiment stabilizes. The risk lies in the resumption of production of large factories [19] - **Polysilicon**: The increase in the average spot transaction price provides a lower limit for the futures price. The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term. The overall strategy is to be bullish on dips, and one can consider selling out - of - the - money put options [20] 4. Hot News Sorting - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added three polysilicon futures designated quality - inspection institutions on August 1. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading limits of some contracts of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures on August 1 [21] 5. Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Silicon**: Includes data on spot prices, weekly production, and inventory of industrial silicon in China [22] - **Organosilicon**: Covers data on DMC spot prices, weekly profits, factory inventory, and weekly production [31] - **Polysilicon**: Involves data on polysilicon spot prices, weekly gross profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [36] - **Silicon Wafers**: Contains data on silicon wafer spot prices, average net profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [40] - **Battery Cells**: Includes data on battery cell spot prices, average net profits, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly production [45] - **Components**: Covers data on component spot prices, average net profits, factory inventory, and enterprise monthly production [53]