1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [6] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the industrial silicon and polysilicon industries are weak, but the market is driven by events. The short - term investment strategies for industrial silicon and polysilicon are recommended, while the long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2511 contract of industrial silicon increased by 95 yuan/ton to 8805 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 increased by 150 yuan/ton to 9400 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 increased by 150 yuan/ton to 8700 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon increased by 1950 yuan/ton to 52740 yuan/ton. The transaction price of N - type re - feeding material increased by 200 yuan/ton to 47400 yuan/ton [10][11] 3.2 Fundamentals Are Weak, but the Market Is Driven by Events 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - This week, the main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. New furnaces were opened in Xinjiang, Sichuan, Gansu, and Ningxia. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.20 million tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.11 million tons. Xinjiang's large factories have further复产 plans. Considering the remaining time of the wet season, the later - stage increase in southern production is limited. Downstream maintains rigid demand procurement. In July, the industrial silicon balance sheet showed a de - stocking of about 30,000 tons. In August, the supply side is expected to have a marginal increase of about 40,000 tons, but due to the large - scale复产 of polysilicon, industrial silicon may still de - stock [12] 3.2.2 Organic Silicon - This week, the price of organic silicon fluctuated downward. The production load of monomer factories remained stable. Hesheng's Sichuan plant plans to resume production. The overall enterprise operating rate was 77.7%, the weekly output was 51,400 tons, a 0.39% increase, and the inventory was 48,500 tons, a 2.97% increase. Terminal demand has not improved substantially, and the price is expected to be weak [12][13] 3.2.3 Polysilicon - This week, the main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated strongly. Spot trading changed little. The factory inventory increased by 0.9 million tons to 242,000 tons. Although the price limit has been implemented, production cuts have not started. The output in August is expected to reach 125,000 - 130,000 tons, resulting in a monthly surplus of 20,000 tons. Terminal demand is weak, but the futures market is more affected by policies and news [13] 3.2.4 Silicon Wafers - This week, the price of silicon wafers was stable overall, with some models slightly decreasing. The inventory increased by 0.69GW to 19.80GW. The production schedule in August is 53GW. Terminal demand is weak, but silicon wafer manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices. In the short term, the price may fluctuate and may decline later [14] 3.2.5 Battery Cells - This week, the price of battery cells was stable. The inventory increased by 1.12GW to 4.98GW. The production schedule in August is about 58GW. The price increase of battery cells was not smoothly transmitted to the component link. With the possible extension of the component export tax - refund cancellation policy, the price of battery cells is expected to decline [15] 3.2.6 Components - This week, the price of components fluctuated. The price of centralized projects showed signs of loosening, and the distributed spot price was temporarily stalemate. The production schedule is 45GW. Overseas demand decreased due to the possible policy extension. Domestic centralized power stations are still waiting and watching. The market logic may put pressure on component prices, and policy support is needed [16] 3.3 Investment Recommendations 3.3.1 Industrial Silicon - Based on the reality of Xinjiang's large factories'复产 falling short of expectations and the large - scale increase in polysilicon production, the fundamentals of industrial silicon have improved and are in a de - stocking state. However, considering the future复产 of large factories and polysilicon production cuts, the fundamentals are not optimistic. In the short term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended, with the risk being the large factories'复产 [3][17] 3.3.2 Polysilicon - The fundamentals are bearish for the market. Middle - section deliverable enterprises are actively hedging, and more warehouse receipts will be registered. The market has strong speculative properties and is supported at 49,000 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price may range from 45,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton, and in the long term, it is expected to exceed 60,000 yuan/ton. A strategy of bullish on pullbacks is recommended, and attention can be paid to the 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunity at about - 2000 yuan/ton [4][18] 3.4 Hot News - The US launched anti - dumping and counter - vailing investigations on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells imported from India, Indonesia, and Laos. The ITC will make an initial ruling on industrial damage by September 2, 2025. If it rules in favor, the US Department of Commerce will continue the investigation and make initial rulings on counter - vailing and anti - dumping by October 13, 2025, and December 26, 2025, respectively [19] - Xingfa's 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project in Inner Mongolia was highly recognized by a joint observation group. The project is a strategic project in Inner Mongolia, and after completion, it will be the first industrial silicon production base in Wuhai to achieve ultra - low emissions of electric furnace flue gas [20] 3.5 Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - The report provides high - frequency data charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including prices, production, and inventory [9]

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 smingfTable_Title] 工业硅现实与预期存分歧，多晶硅新增交割 品牌 | | | 有 色 金 属 8 月第一周现货成交清淡，成交价格变化不大，致密料主流价 格 42-47 元/kg，致密复投 45-50 元/kg，颗粒硅 43-46 元/kg。截 至 8 月 7 日，中国多晶硅工厂库存 23.3 万吨，周环比+0.4 万 吨。虽然多晶硅限价已经落实，但是减产仍未启动，预计 8 月 多晶硅产量提升至 12.5-13 万吨，导致单月过剩 1.5-2 万吨。本 轮多晶硅"反内卷"一阶段价格调控于协会公布指导价格后基 本确定；二阶段多晶硅价格继续上冲的力量或来自于纾困基金 和产能重组计划，后续产能退出与减产动作或将逐步落实，使 得基本面向政策目标靠拢，关注后续进展。 ★投资建议 工业硅：基于新疆大厂复产不及预期和多晶硅大量增产的现 实，工业硅基本面边际好转进入去库状态。但若基于新疆大厂 终将复产、多晶硅反内卷之下终将减产的预期，则工业硅基本 面又难言乐观。考虑到遏制通缩仍将是下半年政策主旋律，不 排除后续有二次交易"反内卷"的可能，短期之内我们仍推荐 逢低做多策略，风险在于大厂 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Volatility [6] - Polysilicon: Volatility [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "anti-involution" sentiment has declined, but polysilicon still has policy support. The industrial silicon market may see marginal improvement, and it's difficult to reach previous low prices. The polysilicon spot price increase provides a lower limit for the futures market, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2509 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 1,225 yuan/ton to 8,500 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price of SMM's East China oxygenated 553 decreased by 400 yuan/ton to 9,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 9,000 yuan/ton. The PS2509 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1,825 yuan/ton to 49,200 yuan/ton. The transaction price of N-type reclaimed feedstock increased by 300 yuan/ton to 47,100 yuan/ton [10] 2. "Anti-involution" Sentiment Declines, Polysilicon Still Has Policy Support - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main industrial silicon futures contract dropped significantly this week. The weekly output was 78,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.59%. The social inventory increased by 5,000 tons, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 6,000 tons. Xinjiang's large factories have unstable operations, and production is expected to increase slightly. Sichuan and Yunnan's silicon factories are also expected to have a small increase. The 7 - month industrial silicon balance sheet is estimated to have a de - stocking of about 30,000 tons, and it may still de - stock in August [12] - **Organosilicon**: The price of organosilicon fluctuated this week. The overall enterprise operating rate was 72.26%, the weekly output was 47,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.82%, and the inventory was 46,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.41%. The price is expected to fluctuate [12][13] - **Polysilicon**: The main polysilicon futures contract first rose and then fell this week. The average spot transaction price increased. The main prices of silicon materials this week were 42 - 47 yuan/kg for dense materials, 45 - 50 yuan/kg for dense reclaimed materials, and 43 - 46 yuan/kg for granular silicon. As of July 31, the inventory of Chinese polysilicon factories was 229,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons month - on - month. The production in August is expected to reach 125,000 - 130,000 tons, resulting in a monthly surplus of 20,000 - 30,000 tons [14] - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of silicon wafers increased as expected this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers were 1.20/1.35/1.55 yuan/piece, with an average increase of 0.1 yuan/piece. The price is expected to increase slightly [15] - **Battery Cells**: The price of battery cells increased as expected this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 battery cells were 0.29/0.285/0.285 yuan/watt, with increases of 0.02/0.015/0.015 yuan/watt respectively. The price should continue to rise, but the acceptance of the component end needs to be considered [16] - **Components**: The price of components fluctuated this week. The price of centralized components was stable, and the price of distributed components increased but with low trading volume. The component production in August is not expected to decrease significantly. The short - term component price is expected to fluctuate [17] 3. Investment Advice - **Industrial Silicon**: The "anti - involution" trading declined rapidly, and the industrial silicon futures price fell. In the short term, the decline sentiment has not been fully released, but the fundamentals have improved marginally. There may be a second "anti - involution" trading. Short positions can consider gradually taking profits, and then consider long positions after the macro - sentiment stabilizes. The risk lies in the resumption of production of large factories [19] - **Polysilicon**: The increase in the average spot transaction price provides a lower limit for the futures price. The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term. The overall strategy is to be bullish on dips, and one can consider selling out - of - the - money put options [20] 4. Hot News Sorting - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added three polysilicon futures designated quality - inspection institutions on August 1. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading limits of some contracts of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures on August 1 [21] 5. Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Silicon**: Includes data on spot prices, weekly production, and inventory of industrial silicon in China [22] - **Organosilicon**: Covers data on DMC spot prices, weekly profits, factory inventory, and weekly production [31] - **Polysilicon**: Involves data on polysilicon spot prices, weekly gross profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [36] - **Silicon Wafers**: Contains data on silicon wafer spot prices, average net profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [40] - **Battery Cells**: Includes data on battery cell spot prices, average net profits, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly production [45] - **Components**: Covers data on component spot prices, average net profits, factory inventory, and enterprise monthly production [53]

Core Insights - Niu Technologies, originally focused on balance scooters, is intensifying its efforts in the competitive two-wheeled electric vehicle market, having recently celebrated the production of its 7 millionth smart two-wheeled electric vehicle [2][3] Production Capacity and Sales Growth - The company's factory in Changzhou, established in December 2019, has an annual production capacity of 2.5 million units, with plans to expand to 5 million units [3] - Niu's sales of two-wheeled electric vehicles exceeded 1 million units in Q1 2023, nearing 40% of last year's total sales, indicating significant growth despite Q1 typically being a slow season [3][4] - The company aims to increase its offline store count from over 7,600 to approximately 9,500 by the end of 2023, reflecting its aggressive expansion strategy [4][5] Market Strategy and Innovation - Niu's two-wheeled electric vehicle segment accounted for 72.1 billion yuan in revenue last year, representing over 50% of the company's total revenue [5][6] - The company plans to launch its technology brand, Lingbo OS, to leverage over a decade of technological expertise in the short-distance transportation sector [5] - Niu's R&D investment exceeded 800 million yuan last year, marking a 34% increase, with a cumulative investment of around 3 billion yuan from 2020 to 2024 [5][6] Competitive Landscape - Niu's two-wheeled electric vehicle sales are predominantly domestic, with 99.78% sold in China, amidst increasing competition from other leading companies expanding their production capacities [6] - The company anticipates potential industry consolidation similar to the automotive sector, with possible acquisitions in the future [6] International Expansion - Niu sees significant opportunities in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, where the majority of transportation is still reliant on fuel-powered motorcycles [7][8] - The company generated 5.77 billion yuan in overseas revenue last year, accounting for 40% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 35.77% in international markets, outperforming domestic margins [7] - Niu has established a presence in various international markets, including Europe and the U.S., and aims to achieve a balanced revenue structure with 30-40% from China and similar proportions from Europe and North America [8]