周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 工业硅供需矛盾不激烈，多晶硅消息频发 | 工业硅：震荡/多晶硅：震荡 | | --- | | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 根据铁合金在线，较 9 月底新疆增开 3 台，云南减少 1 台。北 方大厂开工陆续增加，南方部分硅厂开始少量减产，或将在 10 月底明显减产，预期云南开工下降到 20 余台，四川开工下降 至 35 台左右。SMM 工业硅社会库存环比节前+0.2 万吨，样本 工厂库存环比节前+0.54 万吨。下游维持刚需采买。从平衡表 看，以新疆大厂东部基地后续开炉 50 台计算，则 9-10 月工业 硅或合计累库约 4 万吨，11-12 月枯水期合计去库约 5 万吨。 此累库和去库体量对于工业硅来说都并不明显。若新疆大厂东 部基地开至 60 台，则 11 月工业硅难以去库、12 月微量去库。 有 ★多晶硅 色 金 属 一线厂家致密料现货报价维持 55 元/千克，二三线厂家 52-53 元/千克，颗粒料新单报价 51 元/千克。实际成交看，9 月一线 致密料成交均价 51-52 元/千克，国庆节前少量订单达 53 元/千 克，颗粒 ...

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 工业硅大厂复产，多晶硅关注平台公司进展 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 工业硅：震荡/多晶硅：震荡 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 8 | 年 | 10 | 月 | 日 | [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 有 色 根据铁合金在线，截至 9 月底，新疆增开 9 台，其中新疆大厂 增开 7 台，四川减少 5 台，云南减少 1 台。南方或将在 10 月 底进入枯水期少量硅厂开始减产，云南开工或下降到 20 余 台，四川开工或下降至 35 台左右。新疆大厂或有继续开炉计 划。SMM 工业硅社会库存环比持平，样本工厂库存环比-1.24 万吨。国庆节前下游备货，但仍按刚需采购为主，适量多备一 周库存。从静态平衡表推测，以新疆大厂东部基地后续开炉 50 台计算，则 9-10 月工业硅或合计累库约 4 万吨，11-12 月枯水 期合计去库约 5 万吨。此累库和去库体量对于工业硅来说都并 不明显。若新疆大厂东部基地开至 60 台，则 11 月工业硅难以 去库、12 月微量去库。 ★多晶硅 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industry silicon: Volatility [5] - Polysilicon: Volatility [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon futures main contract rose significantly this week, and the polysilicon spot price was firm. In the short - term, the industrial silicon futures are expected to have a higher probability of rising when buying at low prices, and the polysilicon futures are expected to fluctuate widely between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [4][11][12] - Different sectors in the industrial silicon and polysilicon industry chain have different price trends and inventory situations. For example, the price of industrial silicon increased, the price of polysilicon futures fell slightly, and the prices of organic silicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also showed different trends [9][10][11] Summary According to the Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon increased by 560 yuan/ton to 9305 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SMM spot East China oxygen - passed 553 increased by 150 yuan/ton to 9350 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang 99 increased by 200 yuan/ton to 8800 yuan/ton. The polysilicon PS2511 contract decreased by 910 yuan/ton to 52700 yuan/ton [9] 2. Industrial Silicon Rose Against the Trend, Polysilicon Spot was Firm - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures main contract rose. There were no new furnace start - ups or shutdowns this week. Southern regions may enter the dry season in late October, with Yunnan's operation dropping to over 20 units and Sichuan's to about 35 units. The social inventory increased by 0.4 million tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.1 million tons. 9 - 10 months may accumulate about 50,000 tons of inventory, and 11 - 12 months may reduce about 60,000 tons, but the volume is not significant [11] - **Organic Silicon**: The price increased slightly. Some devices were shut down for maintenance, the weekly output was 48,600 tons, a decrease of 0.61% week - on - week, and the inventory was 45,800 tons, a decrease of 3.17% week - on - week. The price is expected to fluctuate [11] - **Polysilicon**: The futures main contract fluctuated and declined. The quotes of first - tier manufacturers' dense materials were 55 yuan/kg, second - and third - tier manufacturers' were 52 yuan/kg, and the new order quote of granular materials increased to 51 yuan/kg. The production limit was not fully implemented, but the sales limit started. The inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 204,000 tons. The spot price may remain flat or increase slightly [3][12] - **Silicon Wafers**: Some models stabilized at new quotes. The production schedule in September was 57.5GW, an increase of 1.5GW month - on - month. The inventory was 16.87GW, an increase of 0.32GW. The price is expected to remain stable [14] - **Battery Cells**: The quotes increased further. The production schedule in September was 60GW, an increase of 1.8GW month - on - month. The overseas demand supported the price increase of M10 models, but the new price may be close to the limit for domestic component enterprises [14] - **Components**: The price remained basically stable. The inventory was 34.5GW, an increase of 0.4GW. The production schedule in September may decrease by about 1GW. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [15] 3. Investment Suggestions - **Industrial Silicon**: The reasons for the sharp rise in the market are not core. The cost will increase during the dry season. Buying at low prices has a higher probability of winning, but chasing high prices requires caution [4][17] - **Polysilicon**: The market may still bet on the progress of platform companies in September. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling out - of - the - money call options after the 11 - contract rebounds and the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse arbitrage opportunity [4][17] 4. Hot News Sorting - On September 16, the "Energy Consumption Quota per Unit Product of Polysilicon and Germanium" and other national standards solicited opinions, stipulating the energy consumption quota levels of polysilicon per unit product [13][18] - On September 16, GCL Technology announced a placement of 4.736 billion shares to promote the adjustment of polysilicon production capacity [18] 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly production, and inventory [20][23][28] - **Organic Silicon**: Includes data such as DMC spot prices, weekly profits, and factory inventory [30][31] - **Polysilicon**: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly gross profits, and factory inventory [33][37] - **Silicon Wafers**: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly profits, and factory inventory [38][43][45] - **Battery Cells**: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly profits, and overseas sales factory inventory [46][49][51] - **Components**: Includes data such as spot prices, factory inventory, and monthly production [54][55]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption rhythm of large factories in Xinjiang still affects the fundamental changes of industrial silicon. The price of industrial silicon may fluctuate between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton in the short - term. For polysilicon, the spot price may remain firm under the narrative of capacity restructuring, and the price may operate between 46,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 355 yuan/ton to 8,390 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SMM spot average price of East China oxygen - passing 553 decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 9,050 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 remained flat at 8,450 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1,850 yuan/ton to 49,555 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of N - type re - feeding material remained flat at 47,900 yuan/ton [8][9] 2. Slow Resumption of Large Factories in Xinjiang and Fierce Game at the Component Terminal Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated and declined this week. Xinjiang and Ningxia added 8 and 1 furnaces respectively, while Yunnan and Sichuan reduced 1 furnace each. Large factories in Xinjiang resumed 4 furnaces, with slow increase in operation, lower than expected. Southern operation remained stable, and some silicon factories may reduce production in the dry season at the end of October. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.20 million tons week - on - week, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 0.16 million tons. It is estimated that industrial silicon will destock about 10,000 tons in August. If the operation of large factories in Xinjiang remains unchanged, it may accumulate about 30,000 tons from September to October and destock about 100,000 tons from November to December. However, if large factories in Xinjiang resume full production, it may be difficult to destock during the dry season [1][10] Organic Silicon - The price of organic silicon fluctuated this week. Due to equipment maintenance, the weekly output decreased. The overall enterprise operation rate was 72.71%, and the weekly output was 48,100 tons, a decrease of 4.37% week - on - week. New orders were limited, and inventory slightly accumulated. It is expected that the price of organic silicon will oscillate at a low level [10][11] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward this week. The average spot transaction price increased due to downstream restocking. As of the end of August, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 213,000 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory may rise to 220,000 - 250,000 tons. The production in September may increase to 132,000 tons. There are rumors of strict production and sales restrictions starting from September. The first - stage price regulation of polysilicon "anti - involution" is basically determined, and the second - stage upward force may come from the relief fund and capacity restructuring plan [2][12] Silicon Wafers - The transaction price of silicon wafers increased this week. The inventory of silicon wafer factories was 18.05GW as of August 28, an increase of 0.64GW month - on - month. The production in September may increase, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [13] Battery Cells - The transaction price of battery cells increased this week. The inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 7.03GW as of August 25, an increase of 1.22GW month - on - month. The production in September may increase, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [13] Components - The component price increased slightly this week. New orders were few, and most were executing previous orders. The centralized project delivery price was around 0.68 - 0.69 yuan/watt, and some distributed projects could accept prices above 0.7 yuan/watt. Component and terminal are in a fierce game. Component prices are expected to rise, but terminal demand may decline [14] 3. Investment Suggestions - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the resumption progress of large factories in Xinjiang and focus on range - trading opportunities. - Polysilicon: Adopt a callback - buying strategy. Consider 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunities at around - 2,000 yuan/ton [3][15] 4. Hot News Sorting - The winning candidates for the second batch of photovoltaic project component procurement of China Resources Power in 2025 were announced. - Daquan Energy's revenue in the first half of 2025 was 1.47 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 67.93%. The company will continue the production - reduction strategy in the third quarter [16] 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - The report provides multiple charts to track high - frequency data of industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including prices, production, inventory, and profit data [17][26][30][34][40][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [6] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the industrial silicon and polysilicon industries are weak, but the market is driven by events. The short - term investment strategies for industrial silicon and polysilicon are recommended, while the long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2511 contract of industrial silicon increased by 95 yuan/ton to 8805 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 increased by 150 yuan/ton to 9400 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 increased by 150 yuan/ton to 8700 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon increased by 1950 yuan/ton to 52740 yuan/ton. The transaction price of N - type re - feeding material increased by 200 yuan/ton to 47400 yuan/ton [10][11] 3.2 Fundamentals Are Weak, but the Market Is Driven by Events 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - This week, the main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. New furnaces were opened in Xinjiang, Sichuan, Gansu, and Ningxia. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.20 million tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.11 million tons. Xinjiang's large factories have further复产 plans. Considering the remaining time of the wet season, the later - stage increase in southern production is limited. Downstream maintains rigid demand procurement. In July, the industrial silicon balance sheet showed a de - stocking of about 30,000 tons. In August, the supply side is expected to have a marginal increase of about 40,000 tons, but due to the large - scale复产 of polysilicon, industrial silicon may still de - stock [12] 3.2.2 Organic Silicon - This week, the price of organic silicon fluctuated downward. The production load of monomer factories remained stable. Hesheng's Sichuan plant plans to resume production. The overall enterprise operating rate was 77.7%, the weekly output was 51,400 tons, a 0.39% increase, and the inventory was 48,500 tons, a 2.97% increase. Terminal demand has not improved substantially, and the price is expected to be weak [12][13] 3.2.3 Polysilicon - This week, the main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated strongly. Spot trading changed little. The factory inventory increased by 0.9 million tons to 242,000 tons. Although the price limit has been implemented, production cuts have not started. The output in August is expected to reach 125,000 - 130,000 tons, resulting in a monthly surplus of 20,000 tons. Terminal demand is weak, but the futures market is more affected by policies and news [13] 3.2.4 Silicon Wafers - This week, the price of silicon wafers was stable overall, with some models slightly decreasing. The inventory increased by 0.69GW to 19.80GW. The production schedule in August is 53GW. Terminal demand is weak, but silicon wafer manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices. In the short term, the price may fluctuate and may decline later [14] 3.2.5 Battery Cells - This week, the price of battery cells was stable. The inventory increased by 1.12GW to 4.98GW. The production schedule in August is about 58GW. The price increase of battery cells was not smoothly transmitted to the component link. With the possible extension of the component export tax - refund cancellation policy, the price of battery cells is expected to decline [15] 3.2.6 Components - This week, the price of components fluctuated. The price of centralized projects showed signs of loosening, and the distributed spot price was temporarily stalemate. The production schedule is 45GW. Overseas demand decreased due to the possible policy extension. Domestic centralized power stations are still waiting and watching. The market logic may put pressure on component prices, and policy support is needed [16] 3.3 Investment Recommendations 3.3.1 Industrial Silicon - Based on the reality of Xinjiang's large factories'复产 falling short of expectations and the large - scale increase in polysilicon production, the fundamentals of industrial silicon have improved and are in a de - stocking state. However, considering the future复产 of large factories and polysilicon production cuts, the fundamentals are not optimistic. In the short term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended, with the risk being the large factories'复产 [3][17] 3.3.2 Polysilicon - The fundamentals are bearish for the market. Middle - section deliverable enterprises are actively hedging, and more warehouse receipts will be registered. The market has strong speculative properties and is supported at 49,000 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price may range from 45,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton, and in the long term, it is expected to exceed 60,000 yuan/ton. A strategy of bullish on pullbacks is recommended, and attention can be paid to the 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunity at about - 2000 yuan/ton [4][18] 3.4 Hot News - The US launched anti - dumping and counter - vailing investigations on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells imported from India, Indonesia, and Laos. The ITC will make an initial ruling on industrial damage by September 2, 2025. If it rules in favor, the US Department of Commerce will continue the investigation and make initial rulings on counter - vailing and anti - dumping by October 13, 2025, and December 26, 2025, respectively [19] - Xingfa's 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project in Inner Mongolia was highly recognized by a joint observation group. The project is a strategic project in Inner Mongolia, and after completion, it will be the first industrial silicon production base in Wuhai to achieve ultra - low emissions of electric furnace flue gas [20] 3.5 Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - The report provides high - frequency data charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including prices, production, and inventory [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [5] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon's fundamentals are improving marginally and entering a destocking state, but there are differences between reality and expectations. Short - term, a buy - on - dips strategy is recommended [2][4]. - The increase in polysilicon delivery brands may have a negative impact on the sentiment of the futures market. In the short - term, the price may range from 45,000 to 57,000 yuan/ton, and in the long - term, it may reach over 60,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon increased by 215 yuan/ton week - on - week to 8,710 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 8,550 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon increased by 1,395 yuan/ton to 50,790 yuan/ton. The transaction price of N - type re -投料 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 47,200 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon Reality and Expectations Diverge, Polysilicon Adds Delivery Brands - **Industrial silicon**: Futures prices fluctuated. Xinjiang large factories resumed production slightly this week. In August, the supply may increase marginally by 2 - 3 tons, but due to the large - scale resumption of polysilicon production, industrial silicon may still destock in August [13]. - **Organic silicon**: Prices fluctuated downward. The overall enterprise start - up rate was 77.4%, and the weekly output was 5.12 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.11%. It is expected that prices will oscillate weakly [14]. - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices fluctuated. In August, production is expected to increase to 12.5 - 13 tons, resulting in a monthly surplus of 1.5 - 2 tons. The first - stage price control of the "anti - involution" is basically determined, and attention should be paid to the follow - up progress [15]. - **Silicon wafers**: Prices remained stable. The inventory of silicon wafer factories increased. In August, the expected production was 53GW, and it may increase to 57 - 58GW in the next two weeks. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate [16]. - **Battery cells**: Prices remained stable. The inventory of photovoltaic battery export factories decreased. In August, the production of Chinese enterprises' domestic batteries was about 58GW. Prices are expected to oscillate [17]. - **Components**: Prices oscillated. In August, the production of components did not decrease significantly, and the subsequent production may continue to increase. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the follow - up bidding situation [18]. - **New delivery brands**: Xinjiang Gerns Energy Technology Co., Ltd. and Xinjiang Qiya Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. were added as polysilicon futures registered brands, applicable to PS2511 and subsequent contracts. The new brands may have an impact on PS2512 and subsequent contracts [19]. 3.3 Investment Advice - **Industrial silicon**: Recommend a buy - on - dips strategy in the short - term, with risks in large - factory resumption and polysilicon production cuts [4]. - **Polysilicon**: Unilateral trading should adopt a bullish view on pullbacks. Consider buying PS2511 contracts on dips or selling out - of - the - money put options. Pay attention to the 9 - 12 positive spread arbitrage opportunity [4]. 3.4 Hot News - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added two polysilicon futures registered brands [22]. - The US launched a second sunset review investigation on Chinese crystalline silicon photovoltaic products [23]. 3.5 Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial silicon**: Includes data on spot prices, weekly production, and inventory [25][27][32]. - **Organic silicon**: Covers data on DMC spot prices, weekly profits, inventory, and weekly production [34][35]. - **Polysilicon**: Involves data on spot prices, weekly gross profits, factory inventory, and enterprise weekly production [40][43]. - **Silicon wafers**: Contains data on spot prices, average net profits, factory inventory, and enterprise weekly production [44][46][47]. - **Battery cells**: Comprises data on spot prices, average net profits, export factory inventory, and enterprise monthly production [49][51][54]. - **Components**: Includes data on spot prices, average net profits, factory inventory, and enterprise monthly production [57][59][60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Volatility [6] - Polysilicon: Volatility [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "anti-involution" sentiment has declined, but polysilicon still has policy support. The industrial silicon market may see marginal improvement, and it's difficult to reach previous low prices. The polysilicon spot price increase provides a lower limit for the futures market, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2509 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 1,225 yuan/ton to 8,500 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price of SMM's East China oxygenated 553 decreased by 400 yuan/ton to 9,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 9,000 yuan/ton. The PS2509 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1,825 yuan/ton to 49,200 yuan/ton. The transaction price of N-type reclaimed feedstock increased by 300 yuan/ton to 47,100 yuan/ton [10] 2. "Anti-involution" Sentiment Declines, Polysilicon Still Has Policy Support - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main industrial silicon futures contract dropped significantly this week. The weekly output was 78,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.59%. The social inventory increased by 5,000 tons, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 6,000 tons. Xinjiang's large factories have unstable operations, and production is expected to increase slightly. Sichuan and Yunnan's silicon factories are also expected to have a small increase. The 7 - month industrial silicon balance sheet is estimated to have a de - stocking of about 30,000 tons, and it may still de - stock in August [12] - **Organosilicon**: The price of organosilicon fluctuated this week. The overall enterprise operating rate was 72.26%, the weekly output was 47,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.82%, and the inventory was 46,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.41%. The price is expected to fluctuate [12][13] - **Polysilicon**: The main polysilicon futures contract first rose and then fell this week. The average spot transaction price increased. The main prices of silicon materials this week were 42 - 47 yuan/kg for dense materials, 45 - 50 yuan/kg for dense reclaimed materials, and 43 - 46 yuan/kg for granular silicon. As of July 31, the inventory of Chinese polysilicon factories was 229,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons month - on - month. The production in August is expected to reach 125,000 - 130,000 tons, resulting in a monthly surplus of 20,000 - 30,000 tons [14] - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of silicon wafers increased as expected this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers were 1.20/1.35/1.55 yuan/piece, with an average increase of 0.1 yuan/piece. The price is expected to increase slightly [15] - **Battery Cells**: The price of battery cells increased as expected this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 battery cells were 0.29/0.285/0.285 yuan/watt, with increases of 0.02/0.015/0.015 yuan/watt respectively. The price should continue to rise, but the acceptance of the component end needs to be considered [16] - **Components**: The price of components fluctuated this week. The price of centralized components was stable, and the price of distributed components increased but with low trading volume. The component production in August is not expected to decrease significantly. The short - term component price is expected to fluctuate [17] 3. Investment Advice - **Industrial Silicon**: The "anti - involution" trading declined rapidly, and the industrial silicon futures price fell. In the short term, the decline sentiment has not been fully released, but the fundamentals have improved marginally. There may be a second "anti - involution" trading. Short positions can consider gradually taking profits, and then consider long positions after the macro - sentiment stabilizes. The risk lies in the resumption of production of large factories [19] - **Polysilicon**: The increase in the average spot transaction price provides a lower limit for the futures price. The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term. The overall strategy is to be bullish on dips, and one can consider selling out - of - the - money put options [20] 4. Hot News Sorting - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added three polysilicon futures designated quality - inspection institutions on August 1. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading limits of some contracts of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures on August 1 [21] 5. Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Silicon**: Includes data on spot prices, weekly production, and inventory of industrial silicon in China [22] - **Organosilicon**: Covers data on DMC spot prices, weekly profits, factory inventory, and weekly production [31] - **Polysilicon**: Involves data on polysilicon spot prices, weekly gross profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [36] - **Silicon Wafers**: Contains data on silicon wafer spot prices, average net profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [40] - **Battery Cells**: Includes data on battery cell spot prices, average net profits, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly production [45] - **Components**: Covers data on component spot prices, average net profits, factory inventory, and enterprise monthly production [53]

Core Insights - Niu Technologies, originally focused on balance scooters, is intensifying its efforts in the competitive two-wheeled electric vehicle market, having recently celebrated the production of its 7 millionth smart two-wheeled electric vehicle [2][3] Production Capacity and Sales Growth - The company's factory in Changzhou, established in December 2019, has an annual production capacity of 2.5 million units, with plans to expand to 5 million units [3] - Niu's sales of two-wheeled electric vehicles exceeded 1 million units in Q1 2023, nearing 40% of last year's total sales, indicating significant growth despite Q1 typically being a slow season [3][4] - The company aims to increase its offline store count from over 7,600 to approximately 9,500 by the end of 2023, reflecting its aggressive expansion strategy [4][5] Market Strategy and Innovation - Niu's two-wheeled electric vehicle segment accounted for 72.1 billion yuan in revenue last year, representing over 50% of the company's total revenue [5][6] - The company plans to launch its technology brand, Lingbo OS, to leverage over a decade of technological expertise in the short-distance transportation sector [5] - Niu's R&D investment exceeded 800 million yuan last year, marking a 34% increase, with a cumulative investment of around 3 billion yuan from 2020 to 2024 [5][6] Competitive Landscape - Niu's two-wheeled electric vehicle sales are predominantly domestic, with 99.78% sold in China, amidst increasing competition from other leading companies expanding their production capacities [6] - The company anticipates potential industry consolidation similar to the automotive sector, with possible acquisitions in the future [6] International Expansion - Niu sees significant opportunities in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, where the majority of transportation is still reliant on fuel-powered motorcycles [7][8] - The company generated 5.77 billion yuan in overseas revenue last year, accounting for 40% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 35.77% in international markets, outperforming domestic margins [7] - Niu has established a presence in various international markets, including Europe and the U.S., and aims to achieve a balanced revenue structure with 30-40% from China and similar proportions from Europe and North America [8]