1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [1][5] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [1][5] 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon has seasonal inventory accumulation and depletion, but the fundamental contradictions are not obvious compared to the industry inventory of over 1 million tons. After hedging, short - term price drops are unlikely to cause production cuts, and prices need to exceed 10,000 yuan/ton to bring significant supply increments. The lower limit of industrial silicon prices may be clearer, and it is advisable to go long at low prices with caution [2][4][12] - The progress of platform companies in the polysilicon sector has fallen short of expectations, leading to a decline in the market. However, it may be premature to declare their failure. The judgment that spot prices will not fall in October is maintained. The PS2511 contract is significantly at a discount, and the PS2512 contract is basically at par. It is advisable to consider going long with a light position and pay attention to the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse arbitrage opportunity around - 2000 yuan/ton [4][14][19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon increased by 45 yuan/ton to 8,685 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. The spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 remained at 9,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 silicon remained at 8,950 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon decreased by 2,395 yuan/ton to 48,965 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday [10][11] 3.2 Industrial Silicon Supply - Demand and Market Conditions - Compared to the end of September, Xinjiang added 3 furnaces, and Yunnan reduced 1 furnace. Northern large - scale factories are increasing production, while some southern silicon factories are starting to reduce production slightly and may significantly cut production at the end of October. It is expected that the number of operating furnaces in Yunnan will drop to more than 20, and in Sichuan to around 35. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory increased by 0.2 million tons compared to before the holiday, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.54 million tons. Downstream demand is for essential purchases. If the eastern base of Xinjiang large - scale factories opens 50 furnaces, the industrial silicon may accumulate about 40,000 tons of inventory from September to October and deplete about 50,000 tons during the dry season from November to December. If 60 furnaces are opened, it will be difficult to deplete inventory in November and only a small amount in December [2][12] 3.3 Organic Silicon Market Conditions - The price of organic silicon remained flat this week. Some production facilities are under maintenance. The overall enterprise operating rate is 71.95%, the weekly output is 47,600 tons (a decrease of 1.04% month - on - month), and the inventory is 42,900 tons (a decrease of 1.61% month - on - month). The operating rate has declined, supply has shrunk, and with the support of previous order fulfillment, monomer factories' inventory has been digested to some extent. Enterprises are more willing to hold prices, and the price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [12][13] 3.4 Polysilicon Market Conditions - The spot price of dense material from first - tier manufacturers remained at 55 yuan/kg, and that from second - and third - tier manufacturers was 52 - 53 yuan/kg. The new order price of granular material was 51 yuan/kg. In September, the average transaction price of first - tier dense material was 51 - 52 yuan/kg, and a small number of orders reached 53 yuan/kg before the National Day. The large - scale transactions in October have not started yet. The production schedule for October has been further increased to 138,000 tons. There are rumors that the south - western base of leading enterprises will gradually reduce production during the dry season at the end of October. As of October 9, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 240,000 tons (an increase of 14,000 tons month - on - month), mainly concentrated in leading enterprises. As of September 30, the polysilicon inventory of silicon wafer enterprises was 222,000 tons (an increase of 14,000 tons month - on - month), reaching 2 - 2.5 months' supply. Although production restrictions have not been implemented, sales restrictions are still in place, making the monthly supply - demand situation tighter than shown in the balance sheet. Considering the inventory distribution and production pressure in downstream sectors, the spot price of polysilicon may remain flat [3][14] 3.5 Silicon Wafer Market Conditions - The price of silicon wafers remained stable this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers remained at 1.35/1.40/1.70 yuan/piece. The production schedule for October was 55.68GW (a decrease of 3.4GW month - on - month). As of October 9, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 16.78GW (an increase of 0.55GW month - on - month). The inventory is within a reasonable range, and future prices are expected to remain stable [15] 3.6 Battery Cell Market Conditions - The price of battery cells remained stable this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 battery cells remained at 0.32/0.29/0.31 yuan/watt. Benefiting from domestic centralized demand, some battery manufacturers raised the price of G12 battery cells to 0.32 yuan/W. As of October 9, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 5.97GW (an increase of 2.93GW month - on - month). Due to the National Day holiday, the inventory has accumulated but is still under control. The domestic centralized orders are acceptable. India announced the final anti - dumping "suggested" tax rate on imported batteries and components from China on September 29, with a planned three - year levy period starting in 1 - 3 months. To avoid taxes, the Indian market may continue to stockpile batteries, and short - term battery exports are expected to increase again and remain high until the end of the year [16] 3.7 Component Market Conditions - The price of components remained basically stable this week. Centralized components mainly fulfilled previous orders, with the mainstream delivery price ranging from 0.63 to 0.69 yuan/watt. The delivery price for large - scale customers of distributed projects was between 0.66 and 0.69 yuan/watt, and a small number of transactions were above 0.7 yuan/watt. As of September 29, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic component finished products was 33.6GW (a decrease of 1.6GW month - on - month). Some leading enterprises reduced production, and the domestic production schedule for October was 45.66GW (a decrease of 2.1GW month - on - month). The rush to install to meet the 14th Five - Year Plan target supports demand in October, but considering the poor tendering situation this year, the component demand from November to December may be pessimistic. Components are under pressure from rising raw material costs and price increases of auxiliary materials such as glass and adhesive films. With policy support, component prices will eventually rise, but terminal demand may decline. It is expected that component prices will oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the introduction of demand - side policies [17] 3.8 Investment Suggestions - Industrial silicon: It is advisable to go long at low prices with higher probability of success but be cautious when chasing long positions [4][18][19] - Polysilicon: Consider going long with a light position and pay attention to the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse arbitrage opportunity around - 2000 yuan/ton [4][19] 3.9 Hot News - GCL Technology completed the first batch of subscriptions. The second batch will be completed on November 7th and 19th. After two rounds, it will receive approximately 5.446 billion Hong Kong dollars (about 5 billion yuan). The funds will be used for polysilicon capacity adjustment, R & D and production of silane gas and related materials, capital structure optimization, and general working capital [20] - The 15,000 - ton/year industrial silicon project in Angola has been fully put into operation. The second - phase project plans to invest 100 million US dollars to produce 200,000 tons of industrial silicon and various alloy materials, and the construction of the first 4 furnaces has started [21] - The US will impose a 68.45% tariff on industrial silicon imports from Angola starting from October 1st, and also impose high tariffs on imports from other countries [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation - Polysilicon: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon has seasonal inventory accumulation and depletion, but the fundamental contradictions are not obvious compared to the industry inventory exceeding 1 million tons. After hedging, short - term price drops are unlikely to cause production cuts, and prices need to break through 10,000 yuan/ton to bring significant supply increments. The lower limit of industrial silicon prices may be clearer, and the strategy of buying on dips has a higher probability of success, but chasing high prices requires caution [4]. - In September, the progress of the platform company for polysilicon fell short of expectations, causing the market to decline. However, it may be too early to say it has failed. In October, there may still be a game around it. In the short - term, the market is expected to oscillate widely between 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to interval trading opportunities. The digestion of warehouse receipts may limit the reverse arbitrage space [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - As of September 30, the Si2511 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 285 yuan/ton to 8,640 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8,950 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon increased by 1,100 yuan/ton to 51,360 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon Big Factory Restart, Polysilicon Focus on Platform Company Progress Industrial Silicon - As of the end of September, Xinjiang added 9 furnaces (7 by big factories), Sichuan reduced 5, and Yunnan reduced 1. Southern regions may enter the dry season in late October, with Yunnan's operation dropping to over 20 furnaces and Sichuan's to about 35. Xinjiang big factories may have plans to open more furnaces. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory remained flat, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 12,400 tons. Before the National Day, downstream enterprises stocked up based on rigid demand. If Xinjiang big factories' eastern base opens 50 furnaces, there may be an inventory accumulation of about 40,000 tons from September - October and a depletion of about 50,000 tons during the dry season from November - December. If it opens to 60 furnaces, it will be difficult to deplete inventory in November and only a slight depletion in December [2][12]. Organic Silicon - This week, the price of organic silicon remained flat. Some devices were shut down for maintenance. The overall enterprise operating rate was 71.2%, with a weekly output of 47,100 tons (down 3.09% month - on - month) and inventory of 44,500 tons (down 2.84% month - on - month). It is expected that the price will oscillate [13]. Polysilicon - This week, the polysilicon futures main contract oscillated. The quoted price increase amplitude began to converge. The actual transaction price of first - tier dense material was 51 - 52 yuan/kg, and granular material was about 50 - 51 yuan/kg. The production limit was not implemented, and the production schedule in October increased to about 134,000 tons. As of September 25, the polysilicon enterprise factory inventory was 226,000 tons (up 22,000 tons month - on - month), mainly concentrated in leading enterprises. As of September 30, the polysilicon inventory of silicon wafer enterprises was 222,000 tons (up 14,000 tons month - on - month), reaching 2 - 2.5 months' level. Although the production limit was not implemented, the sales limit was still in effect. The spot price may remain flat [3][13]. Silicon Wafer - This week, the silicon wafer price remained stable. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12 silicon wafers were stable at 1.35/1.70 yuan/piece. The production schedule in October was 55.68GW (down 3.4GW month - on - month). As of September 25, the silicon wafer factory inventory was 16.23GW (down 0.64GW month - on - month). The inventory was in a reasonable range, and the price is expected to remain stable [14]. Battery Cell - This week, the battery cell transaction price increased. The prices of M10/G12R/G12 battery cells were raised. As of September 29, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 3.04GW (down 5.07GW month - on - month). The domestic production schedule in October was 58.65GW (down 1.5GW month - on - month). Overseas demand supported the price increase of M10, while the prices of G12R/G12 may remain stable [14]. Component - This week, the component price was basically stable. The mainstream delivery price of centralized components was 0.63 - 0.69 yuan/watt, and that of distributed projects was 0.66 - 0.69 yuan/watt. As of September 29, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic component finished products was 33.6GW (down 1.6GW month - on - month). Some leading enterprises reduced production, and the domestic production schedule in October was 45.66GW (down 2.1GW month - on - month). The component price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the introduction of demand - side policies [15]. 3.3 Investment Advice Industrial Silicon - The strategy of buying on dips for industrial silicon has a higher probability of success, but chasing high prices requires caution [4]. Polysilicon - In the short - term, the market is expected to oscillate widely between 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to interval trading opportunities. The digestion of warehouse receipts may limit the reverse arbitrage space [4]. 3.4 Hot News - GCL Technology revised the subscription agreement for issuing new shares. The company plans to use the proceeds for polysilicon capacity structural adjustment, R & D and production capacity enhancement of silane gas and related materials, capital structure optimization, general funds, and loan repayment [18]. - The completion environmental protection acceptance content of the polysilicon device reconstruction and expansion project of Xinjiang Dongfang Hope New Energy Co., Ltd. was publicly announced, with a public notice period from September 8 to October 11, 2025 [18]. 3.5 Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - The report provides a series of high - frequency data charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafer, battery cell, and component, including price, output, inventory, and profit data [19 - 59].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industry silicon: Volatility [5] - Polysilicon: Volatility [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon futures main contract rose significantly this week, and the polysilicon spot price was firm. In the short - term, the industrial silicon futures are expected to have a higher probability of rising when buying at low prices, and the polysilicon futures are expected to fluctuate widely between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [4][11][12] - Different sectors in the industrial silicon and polysilicon industry chain have different price trends and inventory situations. For example, the price of industrial silicon increased, the price of polysilicon futures fell slightly, and the prices of organic silicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also showed different trends [9][10][11] Summary According to the Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon increased by 560 yuan/ton to 9305 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SMM spot East China oxygen - passed 553 increased by 150 yuan/ton to 9350 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang 99 increased by 200 yuan/ton to 8800 yuan/ton. The polysilicon PS2511 contract decreased by 910 yuan/ton to 52700 yuan/ton [9] 2. Industrial Silicon Rose Against the Trend, Polysilicon Spot was Firm - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures main contract rose. There were no new furnace start - ups or shutdowns this week. Southern regions may enter the dry season in late October, with Yunnan's operation dropping to over 20 units and Sichuan's to about 35 units. The social inventory increased by 0.4 million tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.1 million tons. 9 - 10 months may accumulate about 50,000 tons of inventory, and 11 - 12 months may reduce about 60,000 tons, but the volume is not significant [11] - **Organic Silicon**: The price increased slightly. Some devices were shut down for maintenance, the weekly output was 48,600 tons, a decrease of 0.61% week - on - week, and the inventory was 45,800 tons, a decrease of 3.17% week - on - week. The price is expected to fluctuate [11] - **Polysilicon**: The futures main contract fluctuated and declined. The quotes of first - tier manufacturers' dense materials were 55 yuan/kg, second - and third - tier manufacturers' were 52 yuan/kg, and the new order quote of granular materials increased to 51 yuan/kg. The production limit was not fully implemented, but the sales limit started. The inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 204,000 tons. The spot price may remain flat or increase slightly [3][12] - **Silicon Wafers**: Some models stabilized at new quotes. The production schedule in September was 57.5GW, an increase of 1.5GW month - on - month. The inventory was 16.87GW, an increase of 0.32GW. The price is expected to remain stable [14] - **Battery Cells**: The quotes increased further. The production schedule in September was 60GW, an increase of 1.8GW month - on - month. The overseas demand supported the price increase of M10 models, but the new price may be close to the limit for domestic component enterprises [14] - **Components**: The price remained basically stable. The inventory was 34.5GW, an increase of 0.4GW. The production schedule in September may decrease by about 1GW. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [15] 3. Investment Suggestions - **Industrial Silicon**: The reasons for the sharp rise in the market are not core. The cost will increase during the dry season. Buying at low prices has a higher probability of winning, but chasing high prices requires caution [4][17] - **Polysilicon**: The market may still bet on the progress of platform companies in September. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling out - of - the - money call options after the 11 - contract rebounds and the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse arbitrage opportunity [4][17] 4. Hot News Sorting - On September 16, the "Energy Consumption Quota per Unit Product of Polysilicon and Germanium" and other national standards solicited opinions, stipulating the energy consumption quota levels of polysilicon per unit product [13][18] - On September 16, GCL Technology announced a placement of 4.736 billion shares to promote the adjustment of polysilicon production capacity [18] 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly production, and inventory [20][23][28] - **Organic Silicon**: Includes data such as DMC spot prices, weekly profits, and factory inventory [30][31] - **Polysilicon**: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly gross profits, and factory inventory [33][37] - **Silicon Wafers**: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly profits, and factory inventory [38][43][45] - **Battery Cells**: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly profits, and overseas sales factory inventory [46][49][51] - **Components**: Includes data such as spot prices, factory inventory, and monthly production [54][55]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption rhythm of large factories in Xinjiang still affects the fundamental changes of industrial silicon. The price of industrial silicon may fluctuate between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton in the short - term. For polysilicon, the spot price may remain firm under the narrative of capacity restructuring, and the price may operate between 46,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 355 yuan/ton to 8,390 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SMM spot average price of East China oxygen - passing 553 decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 9,050 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 remained flat at 8,450 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1,850 yuan/ton to 49,555 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of N - type re - feeding material remained flat at 47,900 yuan/ton [8][9] 2. Slow Resumption of Large Factories in Xinjiang and Fierce Game at the Component Terminal Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated and declined this week. Xinjiang and Ningxia added 8 and 1 furnaces respectively, while Yunnan and Sichuan reduced 1 furnace each. Large factories in Xinjiang resumed 4 furnaces, with slow increase in operation, lower than expected. Southern operation remained stable, and some silicon factories may reduce production in the dry season at the end of October. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.20 million tons week - on - week, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 0.16 million tons. It is estimated that industrial silicon will destock about 10,000 tons in August. If the operation of large factories in Xinjiang remains unchanged, it may accumulate about 30,000 tons from September to October and destock about 100,000 tons from November to December. However, if large factories in Xinjiang resume full production, it may be difficult to destock during the dry season [1][10] Organic Silicon - The price of organic silicon fluctuated this week. Due to equipment maintenance, the weekly output decreased. The overall enterprise operation rate was 72.71%, and the weekly output was 48,100 tons, a decrease of 4.37% week - on - week. New orders were limited, and inventory slightly accumulated. It is expected that the price of organic silicon will oscillate at a low level [10][11] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward this week. The average spot transaction price increased due to downstream restocking. As of the end of August, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 213,000 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory may rise to 220,000 - 250,000 tons. The production in September may increase to 132,000 tons. There are rumors of strict production and sales restrictions starting from September. The first - stage price regulation of polysilicon "anti - involution" is basically determined, and the second - stage upward force may come from the relief fund and capacity restructuring plan [2][12] Silicon Wafers - The transaction price of silicon wafers increased this week. The inventory of silicon wafer factories was 18.05GW as of August 28, an increase of 0.64GW month - on - month. The production in September may increase, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [13] Battery Cells - The transaction price of battery cells increased this week. The inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 7.03GW as of August 25, an increase of 1.22GW month - on - month. The production in September may increase, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [13] Components - The component price increased slightly this week. New orders were few, and most were executing previous orders. The centralized project delivery price was around 0.68 - 0.69 yuan/watt, and some distributed projects could accept prices above 0.7 yuan/watt. Component and terminal are in a fierce game. Component prices are expected to rise, but terminal demand may decline [14] 3. Investment Suggestions - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the resumption progress of large factories in Xinjiang and focus on range - trading opportunities. - Polysilicon: Adopt a callback - buying strategy. Consider 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunities at around - 2,000 yuan/ton [3][15] 4. Hot News Sorting - The winning candidates for the second batch of photovoltaic project component procurement of China Resources Power in 2025 were announced. - Daquan Energy's revenue in the first half of 2025 was 1.47 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 67.93%. The company will continue the production - reduction strategy in the third quarter [16] 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - The report provides multiple charts to track high - frequency data of industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including prices, production, inventory, and profit data [17][26][30][34][40][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [6] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the industrial silicon and polysilicon industries are weak, but the market is driven by events. The short - term investment strategies for industrial silicon and polysilicon are recommended, while the long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2511 contract of industrial silicon increased by 95 yuan/ton to 8805 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 increased by 150 yuan/ton to 9400 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 increased by 150 yuan/ton to 8700 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon increased by 1950 yuan/ton to 52740 yuan/ton. The transaction price of N - type re - feeding material increased by 200 yuan/ton to 47400 yuan/ton [10][11] 3.2 Fundamentals Are Weak, but the Market Is Driven by Events 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - This week, the main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. New furnaces were opened in Xinjiang, Sichuan, Gansu, and Ningxia. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.20 million tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.11 million tons. Xinjiang's large factories have further复产 plans. Considering the remaining time of the wet season, the later - stage increase in southern production is limited. Downstream maintains rigid demand procurement. In July, the industrial silicon balance sheet showed a de - stocking of about 30,000 tons. In August, the supply side is expected to have a marginal increase of about 40,000 tons, but due to the large - scale复产 of polysilicon, industrial silicon may still de - stock [12] 3.2.2 Organic Silicon - This week, the price of organic silicon fluctuated downward. The production load of monomer factories remained stable. Hesheng's Sichuan plant plans to resume production. The overall enterprise operating rate was 77.7%, the weekly output was 51,400 tons, a 0.39% increase, and the inventory was 48,500 tons, a 2.97% increase. Terminal demand has not improved substantially, and the price is expected to be weak [12][13] 3.2.3 Polysilicon - This week, the main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated strongly. Spot trading changed little. The factory inventory increased by 0.9 million tons to 242,000 tons. Although the price limit has been implemented, production cuts have not started. The output in August is expected to reach 125,000 - 130,000 tons, resulting in a monthly surplus of 20,000 tons. Terminal demand is weak, but the futures market is more affected by policies and news [13] 3.2.4 Silicon Wafers - This week, the price of silicon wafers was stable overall, with some models slightly decreasing. The inventory increased by 0.69GW to 19.80GW. The production schedule in August is 53GW. Terminal demand is weak, but silicon wafer manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices. In the short term, the price may fluctuate and may decline later [14] 3.2.5 Battery Cells - This week, the price of battery cells was stable. The inventory increased by 1.12GW to 4.98GW. The production schedule in August is about 58GW. The price increase of battery cells was not smoothly transmitted to the component link. With the possible extension of the component export tax - refund cancellation policy, the price of battery cells is expected to decline [15] 3.2.6 Components - This week, the price of components fluctuated. The price of centralized projects showed signs of loosening, and the distributed spot price was temporarily stalemate. The production schedule is 45GW. Overseas demand decreased due to the possible policy extension. Domestic centralized power stations are still waiting and watching. The market logic may put pressure on component prices, and policy support is needed [16] 3.3 Investment Recommendations 3.3.1 Industrial Silicon - Based on the reality of Xinjiang's large factories'复产 falling short of expectations and the large - scale increase in polysilicon production, the fundamentals of industrial silicon have improved and are in a de - stocking state. However, considering the future复产 of large factories and polysilicon production cuts, the fundamentals are not optimistic. In the short term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended, with the risk being the large factories'复产 [3][17] 3.3.2 Polysilicon - The fundamentals are bearish for the market. Middle - section deliverable enterprises are actively hedging, and more warehouse receipts will be registered. The market has strong speculative properties and is supported at 49,000 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price may range from 45,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton, and in the long term, it is expected to exceed 60,000 yuan/ton. A strategy of bullish on pullbacks is recommended, and attention can be paid to the 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunity at about - 2000 yuan/ton [4][18] 3.4 Hot News - The US launched anti - dumping and counter - vailing investigations on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells imported from India, Indonesia, and Laos. The ITC will make an initial ruling on industrial damage by September 2, 2025. If it rules in favor, the US Department of Commerce will continue the investigation and make initial rulings on counter - vailing and anti - dumping by October 13, 2025, and December 26, 2025, respectively [19] - Xingfa's 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project in Inner Mongolia was highly recognized by a joint observation group. The project is a strategic project in Inner Mongolia, and after completion, it will be the first industrial silicon production base in Wuhai to achieve ultra - low emissions of electric furnace flue gas [20] 3.5 Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - The report provides high - frequency data charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including prices, production, and inventory [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [5] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon's fundamentals are improving marginally and entering a destocking state, but there are differences between reality and expectations. Short - term, a buy - on - dips strategy is recommended [2][4]. - The increase in polysilicon delivery brands may have a negative impact on the sentiment of the futures market. In the short - term, the price may range from 45,000 to 57,000 yuan/ton, and in the long - term, it may reach over 60,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon increased by 215 yuan/ton week - on - week to 8,710 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 8,550 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon increased by 1,395 yuan/ton to 50,790 yuan/ton. The transaction price of N - type re -投料 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 47,200 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon Reality and Expectations Diverge, Polysilicon Adds Delivery Brands - **Industrial silicon**: Futures prices fluctuated. Xinjiang large factories resumed production slightly this week. In August, the supply may increase marginally by 2 - 3 tons, but due to the large - scale resumption of polysilicon production, industrial silicon may still destock in August [13]. - **Organic silicon**: Prices fluctuated downward. The overall enterprise start - up rate was 77.4%, and the weekly output was 5.12 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.11%. It is expected that prices will oscillate weakly [14]. - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices fluctuated. In August, production is expected to increase to 12.5 - 13 tons, resulting in a monthly surplus of 1.5 - 2 tons. The first - stage price control of the "anti - involution" is basically determined, and attention should be paid to the follow - up progress [15]. - **Silicon wafers**: Prices remained stable. The inventory of silicon wafer factories increased. In August, the expected production was 53GW, and it may increase to 57 - 58GW in the next two weeks. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate [16]. - **Battery cells**: Prices remained stable. The inventory of photovoltaic battery export factories decreased. In August, the production of Chinese enterprises' domestic batteries was about 58GW. Prices are expected to oscillate [17]. - **Components**: Prices oscillated. In August, the production of components did not decrease significantly, and the subsequent production may continue to increase. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the follow - up bidding situation [18]. - **New delivery brands**: Xinjiang Gerns Energy Technology Co., Ltd. and Xinjiang Qiya Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. were added as polysilicon futures registered brands, applicable to PS2511 and subsequent contracts. The new brands may have an impact on PS2512 and subsequent contracts [19]. 3.3 Investment Advice - **Industrial silicon**: Recommend a buy - on - dips strategy in the short - term, with risks in large - factory resumption and polysilicon production cuts [4]. - **Polysilicon**: Unilateral trading should adopt a bullish view on pullbacks. Consider buying PS2511 contracts on dips or selling out - of - the - money put options. Pay attention to the 9 - 12 positive spread arbitrage opportunity [4]. 3.4 Hot News - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added two polysilicon futures registered brands [22]. - The US launched a second sunset review investigation on Chinese crystalline silicon photovoltaic products [23]. 3.5 Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial silicon**: Includes data on spot prices, weekly production, and inventory [25][27][32]. - **Organic silicon**: Covers data on DMC spot prices, weekly profits, inventory, and weekly production [34][35]. - **Polysilicon**: Involves data on spot prices, weekly gross profits, factory inventory, and enterprise weekly production [40][43]. - **Silicon wafers**: Contains data on spot prices, average net profits, factory inventory, and enterprise weekly production [44][46][47]. - **Battery cells**: Comprises data on spot prices, average net profits, export factory inventory, and enterprise monthly production [49][51][54]. - **Components**: Includes data on spot prices, average net profits, factory inventory, and enterprise monthly production [57][59][60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Volatility [6] - Polysilicon: Volatility [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "anti-involution" sentiment has declined, but polysilicon still has policy support. The industrial silicon market may see marginal improvement, and it's difficult to reach previous low prices. The polysilicon spot price increase provides a lower limit for the futures market, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2509 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 1,225 yuan/ton to 8,500 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price of SMM's East China oxygenated 553 decreased by 400 yuan/ton to 9,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 9,000 yuan/ton. The PS2509 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1,825 yuan/ton to 49,200 yuan/ton. The transaction price of N-type reclaimed feedstock increased by 300 yuan/ton to 47,100 yuan/ton [10] 2. "Anti-involution" Sentiment Declines, Polysilicon Still Has Policy Support - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main industrial silicon futures contract dropped significantly this week. The weekly output was 78,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.59%. The social inventory increased by 5,000 tons, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 6,000 tons. Xinjiang's large factories have unstable operations, and production is expected to increase slightly. Sichuan and Yunnan's silicon factories are also expected to have a small increase. The 7 - month industrial silicon balance sheet is estimated to have a de - stocking of about 30,000 tons, and it may still de - stock in August [12] - **Organosilicon**: The price of organosilicon fluctuated this week. The overall enterprise operating rate was 72.26%, the weekly output was 47,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.82%, and the inventory was 46,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.41%. The price is expected to fluctuate [12][13] - **Polysilicon**: The main polysilicon futures contract first rose and then fell this week. The average spot transaction price increased. The main prices of silicon materials this week were 42 - 47 yuan/kg for dense materials, 45 - 50 yuan/kg for dense reclaimed materials, and 43 - 46 yuan/kg for granular silicon. As of July 31, the inventory of Chinese polysilicon factories was 229,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons month - on - month. The production in August is expected to reach 125,000 - 130,000 tons, resulting in a monthly surplus of 20,000 - 30,000 tons [14] - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of silicon wafers increased as expected this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers were 1.20/1.35/1.55 yuan/piece, with an average increase of 0.1 yuan/piece. The price is expected to increase slightly [15] - **Battery Cells**: The price of battery cells increased as expected this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 battery cells were 0.29/0.285/0.285 yuan/watt, with increases of 0.02/0.015/0.015 yuan/watt respectively. The price should continue to rise, but the acceptance of the component end needs to be considered [16] - **Components**: The price of components fluctuated this week. The price of centralized components was stable, and the price of distributed components increased but with low trading volume. The component production in August is not expected to decrease significantly. The short - term component price is expected to fluctuate [17] 3. Investment Advice - **Industrial Silicon**: The "anti - involution" trading declined rapidly, and the industrial silicon futures price fell. In the short term, the decline sentiment has not been fully released, but the fundamentals have improved marginally. There may be a second "anti - involution" trading. Short positions can consider gradually taking profits, and then consider long positions after the macro - sentiment stabilizes. The risk lies in the resumption of production of large factories [19] - **Polysilicon**: The increase in the average spot transaction price provides a lower limit for the futures price. The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term. The overall strategy is to be bullish on dips, and one can consider selling out - of - the - money put options [20] 4. Hot News Sorting - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added three polysilicon futures designated quality - inspection institutions on August 1. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading limits of some contracts of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures on August 1 [21] 5. Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Silicon**: Includes data on spot prices, weekly production, and inventory of industrial silicon in China [22] - **Organosilicon**: Covers data on DMC spot prices, weekly profits, factory inventory, and weekly production [31] - **Polysilicon**: Involves data on polysilicon spot prices, weekly gross profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [36] - **Silicon Wafers**: Contains data on silicon wafer spot prices, average net profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [40] - **Battery Cells**: Includes data on battery cell spot prices, average net profits, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly production [45] - **Components**: Covers data on component spot prices, average net profits, factory inventory, and enterprise monthly production [53]

Core Insights - Niu Technologies, originally focused on balance scooters, is intensifying its efforts in the competitive two-wheeled electric vehicle market, having recently celebrated the production of its 7 millionth smart two-wheeled electric vehicle [2][3] Production Capacity and Sales Growth - The company's factory in Changzhou, established in December 2019, has an annual production capacity of 2.5 million units, with plans to expand to 5 million units [3] - Niu's sales of two-wheeled electric vehicles exceeded 1 million units in Q1 2023, nearing 40% of last year's total sales, indicating significant growth despite Q1 typically being a slow season [3][4] - The company aims to increase its offline store count from over 7,600 to approximately 9,500 by the end of 2023, reflecting its aggressive expansion strategy [4][5] Market Strategy and Innovation - Niu's two-wheeled electric vehicle segment accounted for 72.1 billion yuan in revenue last year, representing over 50% of the company's total revenue [5][6] - The company plans to launch its technology brand, Lingbo OS, to leverage over a decade of technological expertise in the short-distance transportation sector [5] - Niu's R&D investment exceeded 800 million yuan last year, marking a 34% increase, with a cumulative investment of around 3 billion yuan from 2020 to 2024 [5][6] Competitive Landscape - Niu's two-wheeled electric vehicle sales are predominantly domestic, with 99.78% sold in China, amidst increasing competition from other leading companies expanding their production capacities [6] - The company anticipates potential industry consolidation similar to the automotive sector, with possible acquisitions in the future [6] International Expansion - Niu sees significant opportunities in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, where the majority of transportation is still reliant on fuel-powered motorcycles [7][8] - The company generated 5.77 billion yuan in overseas revenue last year, accounting for 40% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 35.77% in international markets, outperforming domestic margins [7] - Niu has established a presence in various international markets, including Europe and the U.S., and aims to achieve a balanced revenue structure with 30-40% from China and similar proportions from Europe and North America [8]