在消费降级阴云的笼罩下，今年太原北城的闭店率很高。 有一次，晋观君路过胜利街某条街巷，此前那条街巷不算繁华，但也不至于很冷清。 但前段时间过去，路边的店铺关了不少，加之冬天天冷还有关门的早，整个街巷显得更凄凉了。 那条小巷里有4个药店，有2个关门了，还有两个亮着灯还在营业，但消费者较少，门可罗雀。 药店都会倒闭？ 查了一下数据，好像近几年药店倒闭的还不少，各个城市都有，不单单是太原。 中康数据显示，2024年全国零售药店关店数量约3.9万家，闭店率达到5.7%，平均每天有107家药店倒闭。。 进入2025年前三季度，全国药店关闭超4万家，关店规模逐季扩大，有业内人士预测，2025年预计有5万至10万家药店关门。 尤其是那些位置一般，消费力以老年人为主的街道或小巷，闭店率更是不忍直视，几乎达到了50%以上。 如果仔细观察的话会发现，在那些闭店的店铺里，首次出现了药店闭店的情况。 在人们的认知中，药店是暴利行业，药店还能闭店？ 这一下子，药店生意为何就不好做了呢？ 晋观君之见，大致有三方面原因： 其一，市场饱和了 关于太原有多少家药店，并没有公开的具体的数据。 依据市场监管局2022年发布的数据显示，全市共有药品 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent concerns have arisen regarding the chaotic sales of prescription drugs on certain platforms, where consumers can obtain prescriptions without valid medical evaluations, leading to potential health risks [1]. Group 1: Issues in Online Prescription Drug Sales - Consumers can complete consultations by merely selecting diagnosed conditions and providing minimal medical history, which raises significant health safety concerns [1]. - The rapid growth of online medical services has made purchasing prescription drugs more convenient, but it has also led to various regulatory and safety issues [1]. - The responsibility for any issues arising from online drug sales is often disputed among online pharmacies, internet hospitals, and the certified doctors, complicating accountability [1]. Group 2: Regulatory Recommendations - Relevant authorities should expedite the revision of regulations related to online prescription drug sales, focusing on areas such as electronic prescriptions and data security [2]. - Internet hospitals must adhere to strict requirements that prescriptions should only be issued by the attending physician, prohibiting the use of AI-generated prescriptions [2]. - Third-party platforms are encouraged to implement technology for identity verification during consultations and to establish a comprehensive record-keeping system for prescriptions and patient interactions [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Health (06618.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [1][3][12] Core Views - In H2 2024, JD Health achieved a revenue of 29.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 13%. The growth was driven by an increase in active user numbers and a wider range of product categories [1][8] - The company's non-IFRS net profit margin improved from 6.4% in the previous year to 7.2%, with operating profit margin rising from -1% to 2%, primarily due to improvements in gross margin and administrative expense ratios [2][8] - For 2025, the management plans to increase long-term strategic investments to capitalize on structural changes in the healthcare market, expecting significant revenue and profit improvements over the next three years [2][8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are set at 65.7 billion yuan and 73.5 billion yuan, respectively, with adjustments of 2.9% and 3.7% upwards due to increased consumer online purchasing behavior [3][12] - Adjusted net profit for 2025 and 2026 is projected at 4.4 billion yuan and 4.9 billion yuan, with downward adjustments of 7.9% and 3.2% due to increased investments in front warehouses and AI [3][12] Operational Data - As of H2 2024, JD Health had 184 million annual active users, a 7% year-on-year increase, indicating a user penetration rate of 27% with significant growth potential [2][9] - The average transaction value decreased year-on-year, but this was offset by an increase in shopping frequency among users [9]