证券研究报告 | 2026年02月27日 2026年02月28日 MINIMAX-WP（00100.HK） 事项： MiniMax 2.5 让运行复杂 Agent 在经济上可行，Expert 功能沉淀具体领域 SOP |  | 公司研究·海外公司快评 | |  | 互联网·互联网Ⅱ |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 张伦可 | 0755-81982651 | | zhanglunke@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521120004 | | 证券分析师： | 陈淑媛 | 021-60375431 | | chenshuyuan@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524030003 | 近期，MiniMax 2.5 发布，让运行复杂 Agent 在经济上可行。为了让 Agent 能够在细分专业领域的任务上 表现更佳，公司发布了 Expert 功能（专家），每个用户都可以将自己擅长的技能与知识注入 Agent，沉淀 具体领域的 SOP。与 Expert 2.0 升级同 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1]. Core Insights - MiniMax 2.5 has been released, making the operation of complex agents economically viable. The new Expert feature allows users to inject their skills and knowledge into agents, creating specific Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) [2]. - MiniMax 2.5 shows excellent performance in handling complex tasks economically, with a 37% increase in task completion speed compared to the previous version, M2.1. The cost of running agents is significantly lower than competitors, with a cost of $1 for one hour of continuous operation at 100 tokens per second [3][4]. - The internal implementation of MiniMax 2.5 has led to 30% of overall tasks being autonomously completed by the model, with 80% of new code submissions generated by M2.5 in programming scenarios [4]. - The Expert feature has seen over 16,000 expert agents created by users, covering various professional fields, and future iterations will introduce pricing and revenue-sharing mechanisms for creators [5][6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for MiniMax are adjusted to $0.70 billion, $2.08 billion, and $5.14 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a slight decrease in 2025 and increases in 2026 and 2027 [7]. - The adjusted net profit estimates for the same years are -$3.0 billion, -$3.5 billion, and -$3.1 billion, reflecting minor adjustments [7]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong position in the market due to its leading technology and cost-effectiveness, particularly in the B2B open platform sector [6].

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月27日 唯品会（VIPS.N） 优于大市 2025Q4 财报点评：受大盘影响收入利润疲软，2026 年股东回 报势头持续 利润端：本季度利润率表现稳健，Non-GAAP 净利润 29 亿元，同比-4%， 净利率同比下降 0.2pct。本季度经调经营利润 yoy-5%，经调经营利润 率下降 0.2pct 至 10.0%。 股东回报：我们测算 2025 年公司向股东累计返还 9.44 亿美金，股东回 报率 11%：1）回购：2025Q4 公司回购 3.05 亿美元的 ADS（10 亿美元 的股份回购计划有效至 2027 年 2 月），在该项目下有 3.16 亿美元未 利用，2025 年共回购 6.84 亿美金；2）2025 年度现金股息每 ADS 0.62 美元，共计分红近 3 亿美金。展望 2026 年，将继续保持股东回报势头， 持续回馈股东。 投资建议：维持"优于大市"评级。公司加大用户侧的投入力度，利用 AI 技术升级人货匹配、优化用户体验，商品侧也不断提升供给丰富性和稀 缺性，我们调整 2026-2027 年公司营业收入至 1087/1115 亿元人民币， 调整幅度为-1 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月27日 唯品会（VIPS.N） 优于大市 2025Q4 财报点评：受大盘影响收入利润疲软，2026 年股东回 报势头持续 收入端：本季度公司营业收入 324 亿元，yoy-2.3%：其中产品收入 299 亿元，yoy-3.1%，分品类看,穿戴类本季度 GMV 增速基本持平，主要受 暖冬影响服饰大盘增速疲软，标品业务增速微正；其他收入 25 亿， yoy+8%，其他收入的快速增长主要由杉杉奥莱店带动。展望 26Q1，管理 层指引收入增速为 0%到 5%区间。 运营数据：公司本季度 GMV yoy+0.6%至 666 亿。分拆看，Q4 活跃买家数 4530 万人，yoy -1%，据我们测算，本季度用户购买次数同比基本持平， 单均价同比提升低个位数。值得一提的是，2025 年公司 SuperVIP 会员 yoy+11%达到 980 万，本季度 SuperVIP 成交金额占公司线上成交金额的 52%。此外，AI 被广泛应用于公司经营，包括利用 AIGC 技术实现创意生 成与广告投放的自动化、AI 虚拟试穿功能、AI 客服等。 利润端：本季度利润率表现稳健，Non-GAAP 净利润 2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][23] Core Insights - The company's revenue increased by 3% year-on-year in Q4 2025, reaching 27.5 billion yuan, while the Non-GAAP net profit decreased by 11% to 7.07 billion yuan due to investment losses of 1.7 billion yuan [10][11] - The deferred revenue grew by 34% year-on-year, indicating a healthy cash flow status and reflecting changes in the game structure [2][15] - The company continues to expand its global presence, with successful launches of mobile games like "逆水寒" and "燕云十六声," which have attracted over 80 million players globally [2][18] Revenue and Profitability - In Q4 2025, the online gaming business generated 21.3 billion yuan, a 4% increase year-on-year, while the overall gross margin improved to 64.2%, up 3 percentage points [10][11] - The total operating expense ratio was 34%, with a sales expense ratio of 14%, reflecting a 4% year-on-year increase [11] Game Development and AI Impact - The company is focusing on integrating AI tools to enhance creative content, with a shift in the core barriers to entry for commercial games towards integration capabilities [3][18] - Upcoming game releases include "遗忘之海" and "无限大," which are expected to contribute to future revenue growth [23] Financial Forecast - The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 40.6 billion, 44.7 billion, and 48 billion yuan respectively, with slight downward adjustments of 5%, 4%, and 0% [23][28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][23] Core Insights - The company's revenue increased by 3% year-on-year in Q4 2025, reaching 27.5 billion yuan, while the non-GAAP net profit decreased by 11% to 7.07 billion yuan due to investment losses of 1.7 billion yuan [1][10] - The deferred revenue grew by 34% year-on-year, indicating a healthy cash flow status and reflecting changes in the game structure [2][15] - The company continues to expand its global presence, with successful launches of games like "逆水寒" and "燕云十六声," which have attracted over 80 million players globally [2][18] - AI tools are expected to lower production costs in gaming, but the integration of AI with complex game systems requires deep design and operational experience, creating a barrier for new entrants [3][18] - The company anticipates a rise in subscription revenue for its music service, with a projected increase in user growth and average revenue per user (ARPPU) in 2026 [4][20] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company forecasts adjusted net profits of 40.6 billion yuan, 44.7 billion yuan in 2026, and 48 billion yuan in 2027, with slight downward adjustments of 5% and 4% for the first two years [5][23] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 112.63 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7% [5][28] - The company expects a gross margin of 64% for 2025, with an EBIT margin of 32% [28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [5] Core Insights - The company's Q4 2025 revenue reached $59.9 billion, a year-over-year increase of 24%, driven by strong advertising revenue growth [1][8] - The company is increasing its capital expenditures significantly, with a projected capital expenditure of $115 to $135 billion for 2026, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 59% to 87% [2][10] - The company has raised its revenue guidance for 2026-2027, now expecting $243.7 billion and $285.6 billion respectively, with a new 2028 revenue forecast of $329.9 billion [3] Financial Performance - Q4 2025 overall revenue was $59.9 billion, with advertising revenue at $58.1 billion, both up 24% year-over-year [1][11] - Operating profit for Q4 was $24.7 billion, with an operating profit margin (OPM) of 41%, a decrease of 7 percentage points year-over-year [1][11] - Net profit for the quarter was $22.8 billion, representing a 9% year-over-year increase, with a net profit margin of 38% [1][11] Business Highlights - The advertising business continues to grow, with ad impressions up 18% year-over-year, driven by increased user engagement rather than higher ad load [2][8] - The company is leveraging AI to enhance ad targeting and conversion rates, with significant improvements in ad performance metrics [2][9] - The Family of Apps segment generated $58.9 billion in revenue, also a 24% increase year-over-year, while Reality Labs reported $960 million in revenue, down 12% year-over-year [1][19] User Engagement and Advertising Metrics - Daily Active People (DAP) for the Family of Apps reached 3.58 billion, a 7% increase year-over-year [30] - Average Revenue Per Person (ARPPU) was $16.46, reflecting a 16% year-over-year increase [30] - The average price per ad increased by 6% year-over-year, supported by higher demand from advertisers [28] Capital Expenditure and Strategic Focus - Capital expenditures for Q4 were $22.1 billion, a 141% increase year-over-year, with a total of $72.2 billion for the year [9][28] - The company emphasizes that efficient AI infrastructure is a strategic advantage, with significant investments planned to support this area [10][2] Earnings Guidance - The company expects Q1 2026 revenue to be between $53.5 billion and $56.5 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 26% to 34% [3][31] - Total expenses for the year are projected to be between $162 billion and $169 billion [3][31]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][8][23] Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve revenue of CNY 194.6 billion in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%. The network advertising sector is anticipated to perform steadily, benefiting from the release of advertising inventory and AI integration. The gaming business is expected to show strong performance, particularly with the game "Delta Action" [4][9] - The company is increasing its investment in AI, which is expected to offset some operational leverage release. The R&D expenses related to AI are projected to grow by 28% in Q4 2025 [4][10] - The gaming revenue is projected to reach CNY 58 billion in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. Domestic game revenue is expected to grow by 16%, supported by established titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [5][21] - Marketing services revenue is expected to be CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, driven by AI enhancements in advertising [6][19] - Financial technology and enterprise services are projected to grow by 9% year-on-year, with revenue expected to reach CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025 [20] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, Tencent's Non-IFRS operating profit is expected to be CNY 68.1 billion, a 15% increase year-on-year. The Non-IFRS net profit is projected to be CNY 65.2 billion, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth, with a net profit margin of 34% [10][11] - The overall revenue for 2025 is forecasted to be CNY 752 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 14% [11][30] Gaming Sector - The gaming business is expected to generate CNY 58 billion in revenue for Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. The domestic gaming revenue is projected to grow by 16% [5][21] - Upcoming game releases, including "Delta Action" and "Future of Counterattack," are anticipated to enhance revenue streams [21] Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue is expected to reach CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, with an 18% year-on-year increase. AI-driven advertising solutions are expected to improve operational efficiency for advertisers [6][19] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services are projected to grow by 9% year-on-year, with expected revenue of CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025. The growth is primarily driven by payment services and the introduction of AI applications in WeChat mini-programs [20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The report indicates that the impact of the fierce competition in the food delivery sector on the company's revenue and profit is expected to gradually diminish. The company achieved a revenue of 95.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2%, primarily affected by intensified competition in its core local business. Adjusted losses reached 16 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of -17%, indicating a shift from profit to loss [1][8] - The company maintains its long-term goal of achieving a high daily order volume of 100 million and believes that as the industry returns to rationality, the profitability of the food delivery business will return to reasonable levels [1][8] Summary by Sections Overview - The report highlights that the competition in the food delivery market has significantly impacted the company's revenue and profit, with a revenue of 95.5 billion yuan for the quarter. Revenue breakdown shows a year-on-year decline of 17% in instant delivery services, a 1% increase in transaction commissions, and a 6% increase in marketing services [1][8] - The gross margin, sales expense ratio, and R&D expense ratio have all weakened, leading to an adjusted loss of 16 billion yuan, with a continued increase in losses quarter-on-quarter [1][8] Core Local Business - The core local business revenue decreased by 3% year-on-year, resulting in an operating loss of 14.1 billion yuan and an operating profit margin of -21.0%, a decline of 42 percentage points year-on-year. The company plans to continue significant investments in membership and promotional budgets in Q4 2025 [2][23] - Instant delivery saw a total order volume growth of 17%, with average losses per order of 2.6 yuan for food delivery and 1.1 yuan for flash purchase. The restaurant delivery order volume grew by approximately 15% [2][24] - The in-store travel and accommodation segment experienced a revenue growth of 13% year-on-year, but the operating profit margin decreased to 29% due to increased advertising costs and subsidies [2][28] New Business - New business revenue grew by 16% year-on-year to 28 billion yuan, with an operating loss of 1.3 billion yuan. The management noted that the user experience in Hong Kong's Keeta turned positive in October, leading to improved user retention and higher average prices [3][30] - The company plans to expand its overseas business by opening three new locations in Gulf countries and piloting in Brazil, although significant losses are expected to increase [3][34] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 360.5 billion yuan, 427 billion yuan, and 509.2 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decrease in growth expectations. Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are -16 billion yuan, 12.4 billion yuan, and 33.2 billion yuan, indicating a significant downward adjustment [3][35] - The report also provides detailed financial metrics, including adjusted EPS and profit margins, indicating a challenging outlook for the core local business due to competitive pressures [4][38]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][13] Core Insights - The company has experienced rapid revenue and profit growth driven by original research drugs, and this trend is expected to continue long-term [1][6] - For FY2026, the company projects a revenue growth of 10-15% year-on-year, with a mid-year revenue of 167 billion yuan, representing a 17% increase compared to the previous year [1][6] - The adjusted net profit for FY2025 was 14 billion yuan, a 39% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 8.1% [2][7] Revenue Summary - The company's self-operated pharmaceutical revenue reached 143 billion yuan in FY2026, up 19% year-on-year, largely due to a 99% increase in SKU supply for B2C retail products [1][6] - E-commerce platform service revenue was 18 billion yuan, an 8% increase year-on-year, with advertising revenue growing over 10% [1][6] - The medical health and digital services segment generated 5 billion yuan, also reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth [1][6] Profit Summary - The adjusted net profit margin improved to 8.1% in FY2025, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin of 25.1% [2][7] - The company has reduced its fulfillment cost ratio to 8.2%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [2][7] - For FY2026, the company anticipates a net profit growth of 20-30% year-on-year, with a mid-year profit projection of 1-21% [2][7] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for FY2026 to FY2028 have been adjusted to 348 billion, 379 billion, and 410 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a 4% increase from previous estimates [3][13] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are set at 25 billion, 30 billion, and 34 billion yuan, also a 6% increase from prior estimates [3][13] - The current stock price corresponds to a FY2026 price-to-earnings ratio of 37 times [3][13]