Core Insights - The article emphasizes that most investors lack the ability to predict market movements and should instead focus on identifying patterns and understanding market errors to gain a probabilistic advantage [4][6][12]. Group 1: Investment Principles - Principle 1: Most individuals do not possess predictive abilities; instead, they should identify patterns and study market errors to gain a probabilistic advantage [6]. - Principle 2: The spread between high-yield bonds and government bonds serves as an effective signal for identifying market cycles [6][15]. - Principle 3: The traditional 60/40 portfolio has flaws, particularly during high inflation periods when both stocks and bonds may decline simultaneously [25][26]. - Principle 4: Valuation changes reward cheap stocks and penalize expensive ones, which is a significant recurring feature in global equity markets [30]. - Principle 5: Crises often present opportunities, while opportunities can be accompanied by bubbles [31]. - Principle 6: High-quality small-cap stocks, especially those with low valuations and net cash, present excellent investment opportunities [7][41]. Group 2: Market Nature and Cycle Positioning - Market Nature: The market is inherently unpredictable, and human cognitive limitations hinder accurate forecasting [12][13]. - Cycle Positioning: The relationship between high-yield spreads and inflation is crucial for understanding market cycles [14][15]. - High-yield spreads indicate when to allocate to defensive assets or small-cap value stocks and commodities [16][19]. - Inflation impacts the performance of stocks and bonds, particularly during periods of high inflation where both may decline [26][28]. Group 3: Asset Selection - Asset Selection: The principle of mean reversion suggests that valuation changes favor cheap stocks and penalize expensive ones [30]. - Value and Profitability Factors: Long-term performance indicates that value and profitability factors can outperform the market [34][38]. - High-quality small-cap stocks are identified as having significant investment potential due to their growth sensitivity and market mispricing [41][44]. Group 4: Commodity Insights - Long-term correlation exists between copper and oil prices, reflecting economic conditions [46]. - The copper-oil ratio serves as an economic cycle indicator, guiding asset allocation decisions [47][48]. Group 5: Gold as an Asset - Gold is viewed as a strategic asset that cannot be manipulated by governments or central banks, making it a preferred choice during extreme inflation or deflation [51][52]. - The demand for gold is supported by central bank purchases, which stabilize its long-term value [55]. Group 6: Portfolio Construction - The article advocates for an all-weather portfolio that includes currencies and commodities to reduce volatility and maximize returns [58][59]. - The traditional 60/40 portfolio is deemed insufficient for managing stock risk exposure, suggesting a need for a more diversified approach [58].

投资是一场没有终点的修行，我们在这场修行中感受人生的厚度。在这个充满不确定性的世界里，投资 的更优解，并非一个静态答案，而是需要持续追寻的动态平衡。 作为长城睿达多元稳健FOF的拟任基金经理，杨光已经从事资产配置研究多年，在她看来，她的工作本 质，更像是在理性计算与人性洞察之间，寻找那个更优的平衡点。 杨光认为，在"科技进步、新质生产力、人群共识"为核心的新范式下，资产定价的底层逻辑正在经历深 刻变革。但是，如何将这种定性认知转化为可执行的投资策略，则见人见智。杨光的答案是：通过量化 纪律来寻找投资的更优解。 以下便是杨光对自己投资体系和思路的详细阐释，包括资产定价、因子投资、组合构建、动态调整、模 型优化等各个维度的思考。 战略罗盘：定性认知的指引 在我的投资体系中，定性研究如同远航时的罗盘，为整个投资旅程指明方向。透过对市场的深入观察， 我相信资产定价的底层逻辑正在经历深刻变革。 我认为传统的估值模型或在逐渐失效，取而代之的是以"科技进步、新质生产力、人群共识"为核心的新 范式。这个认知不仅来自于数据分析，更源于对时代脉搏的敏锐感知。当看到新一代消费者积极拥抱国 货品牌，当观察到硬科技企业在全球产业链中崭 ...