Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical tensions are easing, and there are expectations of improved terminal demand for steel, leading to a price rebound. However, caution is needed as steel mill profits are still declining. The path to profit recovery will determine the price rebound rhythm. If it's through raw material price cuts, the negative feedback will be greater and the price increase will be more tortuous. If it's due to significantly improved terminal demand, the price increase will be smoother. Without trade conflict disruptions, the latter is more likely [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market**: On October 22, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures 2601 fluctuated upwards, reaching the highest closing price in the past 7 trading days. The rebar RB2601 closed at 3068 yuan/ton, up 0.59%; the hot-rolled coil HC2601 closed at 3247 yuan/ton, up 0.81% [5]. - **Spot Market**: On October 22, the prices of individual rebar and hot-rolled coil spot markets rebounded. The rebar prices in Hefei, Zhengzhou, and Nanning rose by 10 - 30 yuan/ton; the hot-rolled coil prices in Hangzhou, Guangzhou, and Wuxi rose by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while the price in Shijiazhuang fell by 30 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar 2601 and hot-rolled coil 2601 contracts showed a divergent upward trend after a golden cross on October 20 and 21 respectively. The daily MACD green bars of both contracts have been significantly narrowing for 3 consecutive trading days [7]. - **Outlook**: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and there are expectations of improved terminal demand for steel. However, steel mill profits are still declining. The path to profit recovery will determine the price rebound rhythm [9]. 3.2 Industry News - **Company News**: Anyang Iron and Steel announced that its subsidiary, Henan Angang Zhoukou Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., plans to increase its registered capital by no more than 1 billion yuan through equity financing, and Anyang Iron and Steel intends to waive its pre - emptive right [10]. - **Coal Market**: Domestic thermal coal prices have risen sharply. As of October 17, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao Port Q5500 thermal coal was 748 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price increase in production areas was even greater. The winter heating season may start early, and the thermal coal consumption is expected to support coal prices. The target price of thermal coal for the year has been raised to 750 - 800 yuan/ton [10]. - **International Trade**: The EU Commission has made a positive anti - dumping final ruling on steel track shoes originating from China, with an anti - dumping tax of 62.5% [10]. - **Company Performance**: Brazil's Vale's iron ore production in Q3 reached 94.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. It is expected to achieve its 2025 production target. The sales volume of iron ore pellets increased by 5.1% year - on - year, and the price of iron ore powder rose by 4.2% [11]. - **Coal Trade**: In August 2025, Australia's coal export value was 5.425 billion Australian dollars, a month - on - month increase of 1.35% but a year - on - year decrease of 26.53%. From January to August, the cumulative export value was 41.379 billion Australian dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 29.20%. From April to August this year, India's coal imports were 118 million tons, a 2.57% decrease compared to the same period last year [11][12]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities, the weekly output of five major steel products, the steel mill inventory of five major steel products, the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and January contracts [16][20][23][27][29].