Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical tensions are easing, and there are expectations of improved terminal demand for steel, leading to a price rebound. However, caution is needed as steel mill profits are still declining. The path to profit recovery will determine the price rebound rhythm. If it's through raw material price cuts, the negative feedback will be greater and the price increase will be more tortuous. If it's due to significantly improved terminal demand, the price increase will be smoother. Without trade conflict disruptions, the latter is more likely [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market**: On October 22, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures 2601 fluctuated upwards, reaching the highest closing price in the past 7 trading days. The rebar RB2601 closed at 3068 yuan/ton, up 0.59%; the hot-rolled coil HC2601 closed at 3247 yuan/ton, up 0.81% [5]. - **Spot Market**: On October 22, the prices of individual rebar and hot-rolled coil spot markets rebounded. The rebar prices in Hefei, Zhengzhou, and Nanning rose by 10 - 30 yuan/ton; the hot-rolled coil prices in Hangzhou, Guangzhou, and Wuxi rose by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while the price in Shijiazhuang fell by 30 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar 2601 and hot-rolled coil 2601 contracts showed a divergent upward trend after a golden cross on October 20 and 21 respectively. The daily MACD green bars of both contracts have been significantly narrowing for 3 consecutive trading days [7]. - **Outlook**: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and there are expectations of improved terminal demand for steel. However, steel mill profits are still declining. The path to profit recovery will determine the price rebound rhythm [9]. 3.2 Industry News - **Company News**: Anyang Iron and Steel announced that its subsidiary, Henan Angang Zhoukou Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., plans to increase its registered capital by no more than 1 billion yuan through equity financing, and Anyang Iron and Steel intends to waive its pre - emptive right [10]. - **Coal Market**: Domestic thermal coal prices have risen sharply. As of October 17, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao Port Q5500 thermal coal was 748 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price increase in production areas was even greater. The winter heating season may start early, and the thermal coal consumption is expected to support coal prices. The target price of thermal coal for the year has been raised to 750 - 800 yuan/ton [10]. - **International Trade**: The EU Commission has made a positive anti - dumping final ruling on steel track shoes originating from China, with an anti - dumping tax of 62.5% [10]. - **Company Performance**: Brazil's Vale's iron ore production in Q3 reached 94.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. It is expected to achieve its 2025 production target. The sales volume of iron ore pellets increased by 5.1% year - on - year, and the price of iron ore powder rose by 4.2% [11]. - **Coal Trade**: In August 2025, Australia's coal export value was 5.425 billion Australian dollars, a month - on - month increase of 1.35% but a year - on - year decrease of 26.53%. From January to August, the cumulative export value was 41.379 billion Australian dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 29.20%. From April to August this year, India's coal imports were 118 million tons, a 2.57% decrease compared to the same period last year [11][12]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities, the weekly output of five major steel products, the steel mill inventory of five major steel products, the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and January contracts [16][20][23][27][29].

Core Viewpoint - The gold and silver markets experienced significant declines on October 21, with gold prices dropping sharply due to profit-taking by investors after a recent surge driven by expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and strong safe-haven demand [7][9][11]. Price Movements - As of October 21, gold prices fell by 6.3%, dropping below $4100 per ounce, with a decline of over $240 in just seven hours [2]. By 11 PM, gold was reported at $4112.37 per ounce, marking a 5.58% decrease, while COMEX futures were at $4145 per ounce, down 4.92% [2]. - Concurrently, silver also saw a significant drop, with London silver reported at $48.18 per ounce, down 8.02%, and COMEX silver futures declining by 7.69% to $47.44 per ounce [4][5]. Market Analysis - Analysts attribute the recent pullback in gold prices to profit-taking after a rapid increase in prices, which was fueled by geopolitical tensions and expectations of monetary easing [7][9]. - The market is currently experiencing a correction phase, with concerns about overbought conditions leading to increased caution among traders [9][11]. - The volatility in gold trading has reached high levels, indicating potential risks associated with overtrading [9]. Future Outlook - The future trajectory of gold prices remains uncertain, with some analysts suggesting that the likelihood of a decline is greater than further increases [10]. - The sustainability of high net-worth individual investors' demand for gold is a critical factor; if this demand diminishes, it may be challenging to maintain current price levels [10]. - HSBC forecasts that gold's upward momentum could continue until 2026, driven by strong central bank purchases and ongoing fiscal concerns in the U.S., with a target price of $5000 per ounce [11]. However, they caution that fewer interest rate cuts than expected could hinder gold's price trajectory [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector continues to oscillate, with a slight upward trend. The weakening of the US dollar and the easing geopolitical situation have boosted market sentiment. Domestic industrial products are showing signs of anti - involution, benefiting non - ferrous metals and related products [12][13]. - The suspension of the 24% tariff for 90 days between China and the US provides more room for industry adjustment, which is beneficial to industrial products. China's favorable policies, such as real estate and personal consumption loan subsidy policies, also have a positive impact on the market [12]. - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased due to the lower - than - expected inflation data in the US in July, which is conducive to the rise of non - ferrous metals prices [12]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector oscillates. The suspension of tariffs, China's favorable policies, the easing geopolitical situation, and the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut all have a positive impact on the non - ferrous metals market. The market should pay attention to relevant economic data this week [12][13]. - **Variety Analysis** - **Copper**: The exemption of US refined copper import tariffs will change the global copper trade flow. The supply - demand fundamentals of Shanghai copper are gradually becoming more balanced, and it is expected to rebound in the short term. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips [3][14]. - **Zinc**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. It is recommended to take short - term long positions and short on rallies in the medium term [4][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum market is in a state of shock. It is recommended to wait and see or take small short positions. The alumina market has regional supply - demand mismatches, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [5][14][15]. - **Tin**: It is in a range - bound state, and the recommended strategy is to buy on dips and sell on rallies [6][14][15]. - **Lead**: The supply and demand are increasing, and it is recommended to take long positions on dips and use option double - selling strategies [7][8][14]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The supply of refined nickel is in excess, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. It is recommended to take short - term long positions on nickel and long positions on stainless steel in the short term, and short on rallies in the medium term [9][14][17]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures are presented, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and casting aluminum alloy [18]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector shows the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of different varieties [20]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided, such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and casting aluminum alloy [21][23]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For each non - ferrous metal variety, relevant industry chain charts are presented, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [25][29][31]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - For different non - ferrous metal varieties, charts related to arbitrage are presented, such as the ratio of domestic to foreign prices, basis, and spreads between different contracts [62][63][66]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - For various non - ferrous metal varieties, charts related to options are presented, including historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest [80][82][85].

市场快讯 -- 铜价脱离震荡区间上涨 图1:沪铜主连日线图 图2:美元指数日线图 据来源:文华财经 > 沪铜价格在6月26日夜盘及27日突破三个月形成的77400- 79500一线的震荡区间,大幅上涨,至截稿已经冲破80000 整数关口,保持强势上涨态势。 > 逻辑: 风险提示:LME库存回升,中国需求继续走弱 研究员： 俞佳松 卫立 从业资格 F0276812 期货 交易咨询: Z0018108 联赛电话18610240369 | 格林大华 期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288号 免费声念: 本报 作中的信息少来源于公开资料。我公司对这些焦虑的意剧情发起完整视不作任何保证。不仅证据作信息已改革命变变。但不像记分师和出的任何经过不会发生任何变变。本任何情况下，操作中的信息或诉液达的意见并不够的 牌娱乐和买卖的出创或调价。在任何情况正下。我公可不能放弃中的任何内容对任何投资所败出任何形式的担保，法资者队比较谈，没资风险和我承担。我公可可能发出与本和钻雷观忍不一致的其检仪传。本报告反映分析师不人的重要与策论。 代表我公司的立场。未经我公司问意,任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制或对本报告进行有悖原意的 ...

Group 1 - Emerging market assets experienced a broad rebound driven by improved market sentiment due to signals from the Federal Reserve and easing geopolitical tensions, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index rising over 0.6% in a single day [1] - The U.S. dollar index and 10-year Treasury yields weakened simultaneously, while emerging market stock indices recorded their largest single-day gain since April [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's congressional testimony hinted at a potential window for early rate cuts, aligning with dovish comments from other Fed officials, which reinforced market expectations for a third rate cut this year [1] Group 2 - Easing geopolitical risks, particularly a temporary ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran facilitated by the U.S., contributed to rising asset prices in developing countries, with the Israeli shekel soaring 1.7% to a new high since January 2023 [2] - The Mexican peso strengthened due to a decline in inflation data, while the Brazilian real fell against the dollar as the central bank remained cautious about inflation [2] - Eastern European markets showed varied trends, with Hungary's central bank maintaining rates for the ninth consecutive month and Slovenia issuing its first sustainable development-linked bond [2] Group 3 - Investor sentiment towards emerging markets is improving, with a recent HSBC survey indicating that the proportion of fund managers bullish on emerging market assets reached a two-and-a-half-year high [3] - If the current risk appetite persists, emerging market stocks are expected to continue outperforming, driven by expectations of a shift in Fed policy and easing geopolitical tensions [3] - Analysts emphasize the need to monitor upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data and developments in the Middle East closely [3]