Core Viewpoints - The article discusses the macroeconomic outlook for commodities during the upcoming National Day holiday in China, highlighting the impact of recent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions on market dynamics [2][3]. Group 1: Global Economic Context - The Federal Reserve has restarted a new round of interest rate cuts, leading to a shift in market strategies and increased volatility in asset prices [2]. - The easing of U.S.-China tensions and the gradual reduction of tariffs are contributing to a more optimistic economic recovery outlook, reflected in rising U.S. stock prices and strengthening silver and copper prices [2]. - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly the intensifying Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East, pose significant risks to energy prices and shipping rates, which are likely to experience sharp fluctuations during the holiday [2]. Group 2: Domestic Economic Trends - In China, there has been a trend of strong expectations but weak realities, particularly following the Fed's interest rate cut, leading to a focus on economic fundamentals and a decline in optimistic sentiment [3]. - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a necessary response to external pressures and a move towards a high-quality development model, with the market closely monitoring its implementation and effects on economic recovery [3]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - Goldman Sachs reports that the current rebound in the Chinese stock market is driven by "re-inflation" expectations and themes related to artificial intelligence, with institutional investors playing a crucial role [5]. - The temporary cancellation of export taxes on agricultural products in Argentina is expected to increase soybean exports, potentially alleviating supply concerns in China for the upcoming quarter [6]. - A field survey in Xinjiang indicates a significant reduction in red date production, with an estimated yield drop of approximately 39.2% compared to the previous year, raising concerns about quality and overall supply [8]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Trading Opportunities - The article identifies high liquidity commodities and suggests potential trading opportunities in various sectors, including palm oil and construction materials, while cautioning against investments in government bonds due to tightening monetary policy [9][10]. - The glass market has seen a recent price increase driven by supply-side policies and seasonal demand, indicating a potential upward trend in the sector [24][26].