有色金属研究 | 镍 专题报告 2026-01-09 剧烈反弹之后，如何看待镍价走势？ 报告要点： 近期镍价强势反弹更多体现为宏观交易逻辑主导的估值修复，而非产业供需格局发生实质性改 善。在商品普涨与风险偏好抬升的背景下，宏观资金持续流入显著改变了盘面主导力量，推动 价格突破前期震荡区间。 刘显杰（联系人） 有色研究员 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 基本面层面，2026 年在印尼矿端配额供应相对充裕、后续新增项目投产的假设下，镍产业链过 剩压力仍较为突出，中长期镍铁与精炼镍价格仍面临向下修正风险；尤其精炼镍在短期溢价快 速扩大后，或将通过转产与增产机制引发供给弹性释放，进而抑制其估值持续扩张空间。考虑 到当前多头资金体量较大、短期内难见明显撤退迹象，同时印尼配额缩减（RKAB）叙事尚无法 证伪，镍价或仍将维持一定风险溢价，后市更大概率转入高位宽幅震荡格局。需重点关注两类 验证信号：一是 LME 与国内显性库存是否出现持续累积；二是盘面资金（尤其基金端）持仓是 否出现明显减仓或多头离场迹象，若两者同步出现，则本轮上涨行情可能逐步进入尾声。 吴坤 ...

Core Viewpoints - The article discusses the macroeconomic outlook for commodities during the upcoming National Day holiday in China, highlighting the impact of recent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions on market dynamics [2][3]. Group 1: Global Economic Context - The Federal Reserve has restarted a new round of interest rate cuts, leading to a shift in market strategies and increased volatility in asset prices [2]. - The easing of U.S.-China tensions and the gradual reduction of tariffs are contributing to a more optimistic economic recovery outlook, reflected in rising U.S. stock prices and strengthening silver and copper prices [2]. - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly the intensifying Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East, pose significant risks to energy prices and shipping rates, which are likely to experience sharp fluctuations during the holiday [2]. Group 2: Domestic Economic Trends - In China, there has been a trend of strong expectations but weak realities, particularly following the Fed's interest rate cut, leading to a focus on economic fundamentals and a decline in optimistic sentiment [3]. - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a necessary response to external pressures and a move towards a high-quality development model, with the market closely monitoring its implementation and effects on economic recovery [3]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - Goldman Sachs reports that the current rebound in the Chinese stock market is driven by "re-inflation" expectations and themes related to artificial intelligence, with institutional investors playing a crucial role [5]. - The temporary cancellation of export taxes on agricultural products in Argentina is expected to increase soybean exports, potentially alleviating supply concerns in China for the upcoming quarter [6]. - A field survey in Xinjiang indicates a significant reduction in red date production, with an estimated yield drop of approximately 39.2% compared to the previous year, raising concerns about quality and overall supply [8]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Trading Opportunities - The article identifies high liquidity commodities and suggests potential trading opportunities in various sectors, including palm oil and construction materials, while cautioning against investments in government bonds due to tightening monetary policy [9][10]. - The glass market has seen a recent price increase driven by supply-side policies and seasonal demand, indicating a potential upward trend in the sector [24][26].