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数据擦亮人民币资产“成色”
经济观察报· 2025-07-16 11:19
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that China's economy has shown a stable and improving performance in the first half of the year, which is reflected in the financial data and the "credit image" of RMB assets, influencing their future valuation [1][29]. Financial Data Summary - In June, new RMB loans amounted to 2.24 trillion yuan, and the new social financing scale reached 4.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9% in social financing stock and 8.3% in broad money supply (M2) [5][9]. - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 2.76% in the first half of the year, while the 10-year government bond yield showed a "first up then down" trend [6]. - The RMB against the USD fluctuated but stabilized below 7.2 yuan after mid-May, with a 2.41% increase noted [7][9]. Economic Performance Indicators - The GDP for the first half of the year was 66.0536 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [16]. - The contribution rates of the three drivers of economic growth were 52% from final consumption expenditure, 16.8% from capital formation, and 31.2% from net exports of goods and services [20]. Consumer Market Insights - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24.55 trillion yuan, growing by 5% year-on-year, with notable acceleration in service consumption [21]. - Six characteristics of consumption in the first half include accelerated service consumption, enhanced holiday consumption, and the rise of new consumption models [21]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment totaled 24.9 trillion yuan, with a nominal growth of 2.8%, indicating a cautious investment climate influenced by external complexities and internal price declines [22]. - The real estate market is experiencing a downturn, with sales area and amount decreasing, necessitating efforts to stabilize the market [23]. Policy and Future Outlook - The article suggests that the macroeconomic policies will continue to support stable economic growth, with a focus on high-quality development and structural improvements [27][28]. - The expectation for the second half of the year is positive, with ongoing support for consumption and investment policies [25][26].
数据擦亮人民币资产“成色”
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-07-16 06:17
Group 1: Monetary Policy and Financial Data - The monetary policy has shown significant support for the real economy, with June's new RMB loans reaching 2.24 trillion yuan and new social financing scale at 4.2 trillion yuan, leading to an 8.9% year-on-year growth in social financing stock and an 8.3% growth in M2 [3][5] - The financial market remains resilient despite external challenges, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.76% in the first half of the year and the offshore RMB appreciating by 2.41% against the USD [3][5] - The structure of loans has improved, with corporate loans accounting for nearly 90% of new loans, and significant growth in green, technology, and inclusive loans [6][5] Group 2: Economic Performance - The GDP for the first half of the year was 66.05 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, with per capita disposable income also increasing by 5.3% nominally [9][10] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth was 52%, indicating strong domestic demand, while fixed asset investment reached 24.9 trillion yuan, growing by 2.8% nominally [12][13] - The service sector's contribution to GDP growth exceeded 60%, highlighting its increasing importance in the economy [16][17] Group 3: Future Outlook - The economic outlook for the second half of the year is optimistic, supported by stable growth in the first half and ongoing macroeconomic policies aimed at sustaining economic stability [15][16] - The government plans to introduce measures to stimulate consumption, which is expected to continue driving economic growth [13][12] - The resilience of trade is evident, with a 2.9% increase in total goods import and export value, despite external pressures [16][17]