Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent turmoil in the global bond market, particularly focusing on the U.S. Treasury market, and highlights the misinterpretations by the market regarding the underlying risks and economic policies [2][3]. Group 1: Market Turmoil - The recent turmoil in the global bond market has led to a "triple whammy" in the U.S. markets, triggered by geopolitical tensions and significant investment withdrawals, such as the Danish pension fund's exit from U.S. Treasuries [2]. - The market is experiencing liquidity shocks, with notable events like Trump's statements at the Davos Forum contributing to temporary market stabilization [2]. Group 2: U.S. Treasury Risks - Short-term risks associated with U.S. Treasuries are deemed manageable; however, fundamental issues remain unresolved, with projections indicating that the deficit rate could rise to 6.8% due to reduced political motivation for fiscal tightening and increased supply-side investments [3]. - Long-term risks include potential tariff impacts and geopolitical tensions instigated by the U.S., which may undermine the perceived safety of U.S. Treasuries [3]. Group 3: Policy Expectations - The article suggests that conventional monetary policy measures, such as Quantitative Easing (QE) or Yield Curve Control (YCC), are unlikely to be employed by the Federal Reserve to lower Treasury yields, especially in a non-war or non-zero interest rate environment [4]. - Trump may consider implementing "structural" financial repression measures to lower real interest rates as a response to debt risks, but the effectiveness of such measures remains uncertain [4].

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