一、大盘指数分析 中午，重点分析了上证50指数和创业板指数，接下来重点分析上证指数和科创50指数。 先分析上证指数。 上证指数，今天上涨超过1%，走势还是不错的,日K线是中阳线，成交量明显放大，量价配合健康。近期的震荡，在日线级别构筑了一个中型规模的中枢 结构，对应的是月线级别的回踩，回踩了十单位月线。今天的中阳线，实现了结构的有效突破，意味着中期调整结束了，新的波段上涨开始。但是，结构 突破之后，通常有调整。周期面来看，最近的上涨，到今天为止，走了三个有效的上涨周期，周五是第四个有效周期，是变盘节点。因此，短线来看，大 盘指数大概率有调整。 六十分钟级别的走势来看，最近一段上涨，到今天最后一个小时结束，走了十个有效的周期，也到了变盘节点，有调整需求。 周四，节后首个交易日，沪深A股主要的大盘指数继续上涨，涨幅不同。盘面上看，多数个股上涨，99家涨停，24家跌停，盘面分化明显。有色金属、核 聚变、超导等板块走强，住宿餐饮、影视动漫等板块领跌。开门红，A股站上3900点，周五能否继续走强？ 科创50指数，最近一段上涨，到今天为止，走了五个有效的上涨周期，到了变盘节点。今天的K线，伴随着明显的跳空缺口，但是冲高回 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core View of the Report The report is the first in a series of special reports on the SMC system, introducing the basic theory of single - cycle market structure. SMC is a new technical analysis and trading methodology. The core of the SMC system is market structure, which determines the price trend direction. The core logic of the SMC strategy is to enter the market relying on strong points and aim at weak points as targets. Four key conclusions are derived from relevant concepts, which are the important cornerstones for the subsequent development of the theory [2][3][10]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Introduction: SMC System Introduction - SMC (Smart Money Concepts) is a new, complete, and systematic technical analysis and trading methodology, originating from ICT. It became popular after 2020, especially in the foreign exchange and cryptocurrency trading communities [2][6]. - The basic idea of SMC is to follow the trading behavior of "smart money" to achieve high - probability or high - profit - loss ratio trading. However, the so - called "smart money" may not exist in reality, and its effectiveness is explained by the more fundamental ICT theory [2][6]. - The advantages of the SMC system include a complete theoretical system, "naked K analysis" without relying on technical indicators, relatively less subjective components and high degree of regularization, and a complete trading system with clear entry, exit, and target frameworks [2][7]. - The SMC system consists of five modules: market structure, institutional supply and demand, order flow, liquidity, and trading strategies. Market structure is the core, used to determine the price trend direction, and other parts revolve around it [8]. 2. Basic Concepts and Expectations of Market Structure - Market structure refers to a series of high and low points and the bands formed between them, which can be divided into upward and downward structures according to the arrangement of high and low points [11]. - Structure break (BOS) means any of the HH, HL, LH, LL in the market structure is broken. If the HL in an upward structure or the LH in a downward structure is broken, a trend reversal is expected, but this is only a probability - based expectation [14][17]. - The generation of high and low points: In an upward structure, HH is confirmed after a certain - amplitude callback, while HL is objectively determined after the HH is broken. The situation in a downward structure is similar [18][21]. - After a structure break, a callback at the same level as the structure is expected, which helps answer questions about chasing high after a new high is broken [21][22]. - Swing high, swing low, and swing range: Swing high and low are the latest high and low points at a certain moment, and the swing range is the area between them. They are mainly used to assist in judging structure breaks and introducing the concepts of strong and weak points [25]. - Strong points and weak points: When a structure break occurs, the unbroken swing point is the strong point, and the broken one is the weak point. Strong points are expected not to be broken, and weak points are expected to be broken. The core logic of the SMC strategy is to enter the market relying on strong points and aim at weak points [27][31]. 3. Premium and Discount - For the callback band after a structure break, the mid - point of the previous band price range is the fair value, the area above 50% is the premium area, and the area below 50% is the discount area. They are used to assist in judging the general areas for long and short positions and when the callback band ends [32]. 4. Summary - The report mainly introduces the basic theory of single - cycle market structure, with the core logic of the SMC strategy being to enter the market relying on strong points and aim at weak points. Four key conclusions are derived: trend reversal is expected when a turning point is broken; a callback at the same level as the structure is expected after a structure break; strong points are expected not to be broken, and weak points are expected to be broken; the probability of the end of the callback band increases as it approaches the strong point, especially when the callback amplitude reaches more than 50% [35][36][39].