一、大盘指数分析 中午，重点分析了上证50指数和创业板指数，接下来重点分析上证指数和科创50指数。 先分析上证指数。 上证指数，今天上涨超过1%，走势还是不错的,日K线是中阳线，成交量明显放大，量价配合健康。近期的震荡，在日线级别构筑了一个中型规模的中枢 结构，对应的是月线级别的回踩，回踩了十单位月线。今天的中阳线，实现了结构的有效突破，意味着中期调整结束了，新的波段上涨开始。但是，结构 突破之后，通常有调整。周期面来看，最近的上涨，到今天为止，走了三个有效的上涨周期，周五是第四个有效周期，是变盘节点。因此，短线来看，大 盘指数大概率有调整。 六十分钟级别的走势来看，最近一段上涨，到今天最后一个小时结束，走了十个有效的周期，也到了变盘节点，有调整需求。 周四，节后首个交易日，沪深A股主要的大盘指数继续上涨，涨幅不同。盘面上看，多数个股上涨，99家涨停，24家跌停，盘面分化明显。有色金属、核 聚变、超导等板块走强，住宿餐饮、影视动漫等板块领跌。开门红，A股站上3900点，周五能否继续走强？ 科创50指数，最近一段上涨，到今天为止，走了五个有效的上涨周期，到了变盘节点。今天的K线，伴随着明显的跳空缺口，但是冲高回 ...

节后首个交易日，沪深A股主要的大盘指数上涨幅度比较可观。盘面上看，多数个股上涨，跌停18家，分化明显。A股，开门红，注意收盘。 一、大盘指数分析 中午时间紧张，重点分析上证50指数和创业板指数，下午收盘之后，再重点分析上证指数和科创50指数。 先分析上证50指数。 再来看创业板指数。 创业板指数，今天冲高之后，小幅度回落，表现也比较强势。目前，该指数处在前期的高点区域，面临比较大的压力，所以，走势犹豫是正常的。周线级 别走了15个有效周期，月线处在第五个有效周期，好的是九月份已经回踩了五单位月线，所以创业板指数调整不调整都是正常的。最为重要的是，大趋势 依然处在上涨状态。重点看今天收盘吧，这关系到短线是否调整。 二、总结 现在的A股，只要大盘没有大跌，个股的结构性行情会不断上演。但是，这需要趋势正确，不然会陷入漫长的亏损。只有做好趋势交易，才能实现稳定的 波段盈利。通过分析K线、形态和中枢结构，基本可以准确把握股价波动的趋势。结构突破后的回踩，就是分批介入点。这就是本人的交易体系，现在已 经汇集成文稿。A股不易，且行且珍惜。 不荐股，只客观记录本人的分析，不作为买卖依据！ 上证50指数，早盘高开之后回补缺口， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between volatility and risk, emphasizing that understanding volatility is crucial for becoming an excellent investor, as it is a tangible risk rather than a mere psychological issue [8][40]. Academic Perspective: Volatility = Risk - The Sharpe Ratio is highlighted as a key metric for evaluating fund performance, indicating that returns should be assessed in relation to the risks taken [10]. - Traditional financial theories define risk as the uncertainty of future returns, represented by price volatility [11]. - Historical examples illustrate that even if an investor believes in a company's future recovery, immediate financial needs can force them to sell at a loss due to volatility [12]. - The article argues that higher volatility necessitates higher expected returns as compensation, exemplified by the comparison of different funds and their respective drawdowns during market adjustments [14][15]. Practical Perspective: Volatility ≠ Risk - Warren Buffett's perspective is presented, asserting that volatility does not equate to risk; instead, the true risk is the permanent loss of capital [18][21]. - Buffett emphasizes that good companies can have high volatility without being poor investments, while low volatility can accompany poor business performance [19]. - The article notes that Buffett's views on volatility have evolved, initially seeing it as a source of profit but later recognizing it as a neutral concept [23][26]. Trading Perspective: Volatility = Return - The article discusses how risk-averse investors dislike volatility, while risk-seeking investors view it as an opportunity for returns [28][30]. - It explains that volatility can be treated as a tradable commodity, with strategies like options trading reflecting this dynamic [31][32]. - The article highlights that different trading strategies exist based on attitudes towards volatility, such as trend trading and grid trading, each with its own risk and return profiles [36][38]. Conclusion - The article concludes that volatility is an inherent aspect of the financial world, prompting investors to distinguish between what can be controlled and what cannot, as well as what can be judged and what cannot [44].

先分析上证指数。 上证指数，月线级别的走势来看，尽管本月还剩下两个交易日，但是本月的月K线和目前的K线差距不大。这样的K线，本身就释放了调整信号。周期面 来看，最近几个月的上涨，到本月为止，走了五个有效的上涨周期，到了变盘节点，本月处在小幅度震荡调整状态。因此，目前走势来看，十月份大盘指 数大概率还是以调整为主。本次调整的目标，是月线级别的五单位均线。目前，这条均线上行的速度比较快，到下个月就可以看到对应的点位在3700点附 近。当然了，接下来大盘指数在现有的平台震荡，还是采用下探的方式完成调整，还需要进一步观察。 同时，我们还可以发现，月线级别存在一个长达数年的大型中枢结构，这个结构在去年九月份实现了有效突破，意味着未来大盘指数上涨的空间非常大， 突破2007年的高点，是基本没有悬念的。但是，最近一段时间，大盘指数突破了2021年八月份左右的高点，也有回踩的需求。 下周，A股节前还剩下两个交易日，大家面临的困惑，想必都一样。因此，今天重点分析长假临近，持股还是持币？ 一、大盘指数分析 今天，重点分析一下上证指数和科创50指数的月线级别走势，解读下周以及接下来一段时间大盘指数走势。 科创50指数，月线级别的走 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of perspective in investment, highlighting that market truths can vary based on individual viewpoints, similar to the philosophical debate illustrated by Su Shi's poem about Mount Lu [2][3][4]. Group 1: Value vs. Trend - The article presents a debate between value investors and trend traders, where value investors argue that current stock valuations are historically high and unsustainable, while trend traders believe in following market momentum as the key to success [5][6]. - Both perspectives are valid within their contexts, but neither is the sole measure of market performance, indicating that market evaluation is complex and multifaceted [6]. Group 2: Long-term vs. Short-term Perspective - Investors are cautioned to avoid being trapped in short-term market fluctuations, which can lead to emotional decision-making. A long-term perspective allows for a more stable view of market trends and potential growth [7]. - Recognizing the long-term upward potential can help investors maintain composure amidst market volatility [7]. Group 3: Establishing Investment Perspective - Investors are encouraged to adopt a multi-faceted approach, integrating various perspectives such as value and trend, macro and micro factors, to create a comprehensive decision-making framework [8]. - Understanding the essence of profitability in the market is crucial for determining whether to align with or oppose market trends [8]. - Embracing probabilistic thinking rather than seeking absolute truths is essential for mature investment strategies, focusing on the likelihood of success rather than guaranteed outcomes [8][9]. Group 4: Cognitive Development in Investing - The article posits that investing is fundamentally a cognitive journey, requiring both critical observation and humility in recognizing one's knowledge limits [9]. - By learning to navigate the complexities of the market with a flexible mindset, investors can develop their unique investment strategies [9].

Core Viewpoint - Volatility is not risk itself; the true risk is "permanent loss." However, volatility manifests as risk, triggering investor fear and behavioral biases, turning risk into reality and providing opportunities for counterparties to profit [4][38]. Group 1: Perspectives on Volatility - Three views on volatility have emerged: 1. Risk-averse investors see volatility as risk that needs to be avoided [5]. 2. Risk-seeking investors view volatility as a source of returns that should be embraced [6]. 3. Value investors consider volatility to be neutral, with investment risk stemming solely from operational risks leading to permanent losses [7][39]. Group 2: Academic Perspective - The Sharpe Ratio, a key metric for assessing fund performance, emphasizes that returns should be evaluated against the risks taken to achieve them [17]. - Traditional financial theories, such as Markowitz's Modern Portfolio Theory, define risk as the uncertainty of future returns, represented by price volatility [18]. - Historical price fluctuations can create a false sense of security, as investors may not recognize the potential for future losses during periods of volatility [19][20]. Group 3: Practical Perspective - Warren Buffett has explicitly rejected the notion that volatility equates to risk, emphasizing that the most significant risk is the permanent loss of capital [24][26]. - Buffett's investment philosophy focuses on the intrinsic value of companies, viewing short-term volatility as mere "noise" that does not pose a substantial threat unless forced to sell at a loss [27]. Group 4: Trading Perspective - The view that "volatility equals returns" stems from the fact that many investors dislike uncertainty and volatility, particularly large funds [29]. - High volatility assets often trade at a discount, reflecting the risk aversion of investors, while the actual risk remains objectively present [30][31]. - Volatility can be treated as a tradable commodity, with strategies like options trading reflecting the relationship between volatility and risk [32][33]. Group 5: Nature of Volatility - Volatility is an inherent aspect of the financial world, reminding investors of the constant changes and the need to distinguish between what can and cannot be controlled [42].

Market Overview - The major A-share indices showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext index performing relatively strong, while most stocks declined, indicating low market sentiment [1] - The market is expected to continue its adjustment phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index both indicating a need for further corrections [3][6] Shanghai Composite Index Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight adjustment, forming a small bearish candle, signaling a need for correction [3] - The previous week's strong upward movement was accompanied by shrinking trading volume, suggesting insufficient upward momentum [3] - The index is currently in a mid-term adjustment phase, with two potential adjustment methods: either consolidating above recent lows or actively seeking to test the ten-week moving average [3] Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index Analysis - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index also showed signs of needing adjustment, with the previous week's strong performance not supported by increased trading volume [6] - The index is at a critical turning point on the weekly chart, indicating a need to test the ten-week moving average [6] - Similar to the Shanghai Composite Index, the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index is expected to continue its adjustment phase [6] Investment Strategy Insights - The current A-share market environment allows for structural opportunities as long as there are no significant declines in the major indices [7] - Successful trading requires adherence to trend trading principles to achieve stable wave profits, with a focus on analyzing candlestick patterns and structural breaks for entry points [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between volatility and risk, emphasizing that while volatility is often equated with risk, it can also represent potential returns depending on the investor's perspective [6][34]. Group 1: Academic Perspective on Volatility - Volatility is defined as risk in traditional finance, where it represents the uncertainty of future returns [7][9]. - The Sharpe Ratio is highlighted as a key metric for evaluating fund performance, taking into account the risk taken to achieve returns [8][10]. - Historical volatility is used to quantify risk, with higher volatility indicating greater risk and necessitating higher expected returns [11][12]. Group 2: Practical Perspective on Volatility - Warren Buffett and other value investors argue against equating volatility with risk, focusing instead on the risk of permanent capital loss [15][18]. - The article presents a dichotomy where risk-averse investors view volatility as something to avoid, while risk-seeking investors see it as an opportunity for profit [23][34]. - Different investment strategies are discussed, including those that embrace volatility for potential gains, such as grid trading and trend trading [31][32]. Group 3: Trading Perspective on Volatility - Volatility can be viewed as a tradable commodity, with options pricing reflecting historical volatility [26][27]. - The article explains that risk is a commodity that can be bought and sold, with different strategies catering to varying attitudes towards volatility [25][28]. - The concept of "volatility = returns" is explored, indicating that higher volatility can lead to greater profit opportunities for certain investors [22][24]. Group 4: Conclusion on Volatility - The article concludes that volatility is an inherent aspect of the financial world, influencing investor behavior and creating opportunities for profit [39][40]. - It emphasizes the importance of understanding what can be controlled and what cannot in the context of volatility and investment strategies [38][39].

Market Overview - The major indices of the A-share market experienced a rebound after hitting a low, with most stocks declining and 10 stocks hitting the limit down, indicating low market sentiment [1] - In the afternoon, there was a slight upward movement in the A-share market [1] Index Analysis Shanghai Composite Index - The Shanghai 50 Index showed a significant increase last Thursday, but the corresponding trading volume shrank, indicating a potential adjustment signal [5] - Today marks the fourth effective cycle, with today and tomorrow being critical turning points, suggesting the index is in an adjustment phase [5] - The first hour of trading saw eight effective cycles, with the second hour marking the ninth effective cycle, leading to a rebound [5] - The afternoon session saw limited upward movement in the Shanghai 50 Index, with caution advised against potential pullbacks [5] ChiNext Index - The ChiNext Index also showed a significant increase last Thursday, but with declining trading volume and a pullback on Friday, indicating ongoing adjustment signals [8] - Today opened high and continued to rise, which contradicts previous signals, suggesting a potential for high-level fluctuations over the next two trading days until a turning point is reached [8] - The first hour of trading last Friday marked a turning point, leading to two hours of upward movement, with expectations of continued fluctuations in the afternoon [8] Conclusion - The current A-share market is likely to see structural trends in individual stocks as long as the major indices do not experience significant declines [8] - Successful trading requires correct trend identification to avoid prolonged losses, emphasizing the importance of trend trading for stable profits [8] - The analysis of K-lines, patterns, and central structures can help accurately grasp price fluctuations, with structural breakouts followed by pullbacks serving as entry points [8]

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of understanding volatility in investment, emphasizing that it is a significant risk factor that can impact investor returns [3][4][11] - It contrasts two funds: Fund A with a 15% annualized return but high volatility, and Fund B with a 10% return and low volatility, suggesting that investors in Fund B may achieve better average returns due to lower drawdowns [10][11] - The article highlights that while volatility is often viewed as a risk, some investment experts, like Warren Buffett, argue that it should not be equated with risk, focusing instead on the risk of permanent capital loss [12][14] Group 2 - The article explains that volatility can be seen as a source of potential returns, particularly in trading strategies that embrace market fluctuations [15][20] - It outlines different investor attitudes towards volatility: risk-averse investors view it as a risk to avoid, while risk-seeking investors see it as an opportunity for profit [23][24] - The discussion includes various trading strategies that leverage volatility, such as grid trading and trend trading, which require different approaches to managing risk and returns [20][22]