结构调整压力
Search documents
2025 年 11 月经济数据点评:分化延续,政策需加力
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-12-16 05:43
Economic Overview - The national economy in November 2025 showed characteristics of "stable production, differentiated consumption, and pressured investment" with industrial production recovering to normal levels after holiday disruptions[8] - The industrial added value in November grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a marginal slowdown in growth[10] - Fixed asset investment from January to November decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with November's monthly growth rate at -12.0%, although this was a slight improvement from the previous month[30] Production Insights - New industries continue to show resilience, with automotive manufacturing and transportation equipment leading in production growth, while traditional sectors face challenges[11] - The production index for services grew by 4.2% year-on-year in November, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from October, reflecting seasonal adjustments post-holiday[14] Consumption Trends - Retail sales in November grew by only 1.3% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline, with large-scale retail sales dropping by 2.0%[20] - The promotional season's impact was limited, with online retail growth slowing from 8.1% to 5.4%, indicating weaker consumer demand[23] Investment Dynamics - Manufacturing investment showed signs of marginal improvement, particularly in high-tech sectors, despite an overall negative growth trend[31] - Real estate investment remains under pressure, with sales area and sales value down by 17.3% and 25.1% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting ongoing market adjustments[34] Risk Factors - External uncertainties are increasing, and domestic demand may decline more than expected, posing risks to economic stability[36]