分析称，从指数运行情况来看，指数连续八个月环比回升，表明随市场供需持续改善，企业对未来市场 发展信心增强，预期向好，大宗商品市场景气水平继续回升，经济内生增长动能进一步巩固。 2025年12月中国大宗商品价格指数创近一年半来新高 中新社北京1月5日电 (记者 阮煜琳)中国物流与采购联合会5日发布数据显示，2025年12月份，中国大宗 商品价格指数(CBPI)为117.9点，环比上涨3.2%，同比上涨6%，并创下自2024年6月以来新高。 分行业看，环比来看，有色价格指数大幅上涨，农产品价格指数涨幅扩大，矿产价格指数继续回升，黑 色系价格指数止跌反弹，化工价格指数小幅上行，能源价格指数小幅走低。 分商品看，在中国物流与采购联合会重点监测的50种大宗商品中，本月价格与上月相比，31种(62%)大 宗商品价格上涨，19种(38%)大宗商品价格下跌。本月涨幅前三的大宗商品为碳酸锂、精炼锡和苹果， 跌幅前三的为烧碱、乙二醇和焦煤。 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经 ...

Economic Overview - The national economy in November 2025 showed characteristics of "stable production, differentiated consumption, and pressured investment" with industrial production recovering to normal levels after holiday disruptions[2] - Emerging industries continue to be the main support for production and investment, although industrial growth has slightly slowed down, indicating significant industry differentiation[6] Production Insights - The industrial added value in November increased by 4.8% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, while month-on-month growth improved by 0.44 percentage points[8] - The production-sales rate for industrial enterprises was 96.5%, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.1 percentage points, with the export delivery value decline narrowing from 2.1% to 0.1%[8] Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth in November was 1.3% year-on-year, marking a continuous decline for six months, with large-scale retail sales dropping by 2.0%[20] - The promotional season had limited impact on consumer spending, with online retail growth decreasing from 8.1% to 5.4%[22] Investment Analysis - Fixed asset investment from January to November decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with November showing a month-on-month decline of 12.0%[26] - Manufacturing, broad infrastructure, and real estate investments saw declines of -4.5%, -11.9%, and -30.3% respectively, indicating a challenging investment environment[26] Risk Factors - There is an increasing uncertainty in external trade and a potential unexpected decline in domestic demand, which could further pressure economic growth[37]

Economic Overview - The national economy in November 2025 showed characteristics of "stable production, differentiated consumption, and pressured investment" with industrial production recovering to normal levels after holiday disruptions[8] - The industrial added value in November grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a marginal slowdown in growth[10] - Fixed asset investment from January to November decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with November's monthly growth rate at -12.0%, although this was a slight improvement from the previous month[30] Production Insights - New industries continue to show resilience, with automotive manufacturing and transportation equipment leading in production growth, while traditional sectors face challenges[11] - The production index for services grew by 4.2% year-on-year in November, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from October, reflecting seasonal adjustments post-holiday[14] Consumption Trends - Retail sales in November grew by only 1.3% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline, with large-scale retail sales dropping by 2.0%[20] - The promotional season's impact was limited, with online retail growth slowing from 8.1% to 5.4%, indicating weaker consumer demand[23] Investment Dynamics - Manufacturing investment showed signs of marginal improvement, particularly in high-tech sectors, despite an overall negative growth trend[31] - Real estate investment remains under pressure, with sales area and sales value down by 17.3% and 25.1% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting ongoing market adjustments[34] Risk Factors - External uncertainties are increasing, and domestic demand may decline more than expected, posing risks to economic stability[36]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, suggesting an "increase" rating based on expected returns exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the upcoming period [30]. Core Insights - The Chinese economy has shown a recovery trend since the 926 Politburo meeting, with January-February economic data indicating a strong start to the year, with GDP growth expected to reach around 5.5% year-on-year in Q1 [7][14]. - The recovery is supported by stable production and increasing consumption and investment, with industrial output and service sector growth rates improving compared to the previous year [7][8]. - The report highlights the importance of macroeconomic policies in sustaining this recovery, emphasizing the need for continued policy support to enhance internal growth momentum and establish a virtuous cycle of economic improvement [19][20]. Summary by Sections Economic Data "Opening Red" Dynamics - The report identifies three main drivers for the positive economic data in early 2025: stable production growth, steady consumption, and investment increases [7]. - Industrial value-added and service production indices grew by 5.9% and 5.6% year-on-year, respectively, while retail sales and fixed asset investment increased by 4% and 4.1% [7][8]. Current Economic Risks and Challenges - Despite the positive data, the report warns of external challenges, including intensified global trade tensions and insufficient domestic demand, which could hinder sustained economic recovery [14][15]. - The real estate market remains a concern, with ongoing credit risks for real estate companies and a need for stabilization in housing prices [15][16]. Annual Economic Outlook and Policy Recommendations - The report forecasts that consumption and infrastructure investment will be the main drivers of economic growth in 2025, while exports may act as a drag on growth [18][19]. - It recommends that fiscal policies should focus on enhancing consumer purchasing power and improving the overall economic environment to stimulate demand [20][21].