作者 | 第一财 经 李秀中 在房地产市场形势持续下行和推动产业投资不断增长的背景之下，云南的投资结构在过去5年发生了变化， 房地产投资骤降一半多，产业投资增长了近一倍。 1月28日，云南省统计局发布《"十四五"时期云南经济社会发展取得重大成就》（下称《"十四五"成 就》）。文章称，"十四五"时期，云南推动投资增长由房地产和交通水利等基础设施投资拉动向产业投资拉 动转变，由主要依靠政府投资带动向政府投资、民间投资协同驱动转变，由主要依靠高负债投入、粗放式增 长向扩大有效益的投资转变。 2026.01. 28 本文字数：1008，阅读时长大约2分钟 第 一 财 经 持 续 追 踪 财 经 热 点 。 若 您 掌 握 公 司 动 态 、 行 业 趋 势 、 金 融 事 件 等 有 价 值 的 线 索 ， 欢 迎 提 供 。 专 用 邮 箱 ： bianjibu@yicai.com （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） 推荐阅读 《"十四五"成就》显示，2025年，云南水利投资占全部投资比重达4.8%，较2020年提高1.5个百分点，房 地产投资占比由2020年的27.2%下降至2025年的12.0% ...

其中，2021～2023年，产业投资和工业投资均保持两位数快速增长，特别是在2024年全部投资负增长的 情况下，产业投资增长2.2%，高于全部投资9.9个百分点。产业民间投资占全部民间投资比重由2021年 的42.6%提升至2025年的65.1%，有力支撑了全省经济高质量发展。 房地产开发投资曾经是云南经济快速增长的重要支撑。根据统计公报，2019年，云南房地产开发投资 4151.41亿元，比上年增长27.8%，带动全年固定资产投资（不含农户）同比增长8.5%，当年云南GDP比 上年增长8.1%，高于全国2.0个百分点，位居全国第二位。 但是，最近几年，云南房地产开发投资呈快速下跌的趋势。根据统计公报，2020-2024年，云南房地产 开发投资分别增长8.5%、-4.3%、-26.9%、-34.4%和-28.5%，尤其是2022年以来，三年年均下降三成左 右，其累计下降幅度为全国之最。 近日，云南省统计局发布的数据显示，2025年，全省固定资产投资同比下降7.0%。其中，房地产开发 投资仍下降2.9%。绿色能源投资成为稳投资的重要支撑，风电投资同比增长54.3%，电力供应投资增长 45.0%，水电投资增长18 ...

Core Viewpoint - The province experienced a 7.5% year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment from January to November, with project investment decreasing by 3.7% when excluding real estate development, while private investment in projects saw a slight increase of 0.2% [1] Investment Trends - Investment in basic living-related sectors such as food, clothing, housing, transportation, and entertainment showed strong growth, with agricultural and food processing industries seeing investments rise by 17.9% and 44.5% respectively [1] - The textile and apparel industry experienced a significant investment increase of 39.6%, while furniture and automotive manufacturing investments grew by 5.4% and 30.1% respectively [1] - The accommodation, catering, and entertainment sectors also reported substantial investment growth, with increases of 19.9%, 43.9%, and 41.5% respectively [1] High-Tech and Green Energy Investments - Investment in high-tech service industries grew by 18.1%, surpassing the overall investment growth rate by 25.6 percentage points, and its share of total investment increased by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [1] - In the green energy sector, investments in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries rose by 30.6%, indicating sustained high growth in green energy investments [1]

Group 1 - John Kerry expressed shock at the level of fear among U.S. CEOs regarding President Trump, stating that despite the lucrative returns from green energy investments, many companies are still hesitant to invest due to potential political and legal repercussions [1][2] - Kerry highlighted that the recent COP30 climate conference was the first held without the participation of the U.S. federal government since the inception of the UN climate change conferences in 1995, yet several major companies like Microsoft, Google, and General Motors still attended, indicating a commitment to business development and supply chain security [4] - A recent analysis from the University of Maryland's Center for Global Sustainability indicated that existing policies could lead to a 35% reduction in U.S. emissions by 2035, largely driven by corporate initiatives [4] Group 2 - The renewable energy sector saw $2.2 trillion in spending over the past year, driven by market demand and consumer needs, despite some investors retracting their support due to fears related to climate change and political backlash [2] - Companies are recognizing the economic benefits of climate action, which also positively impacts health, food, and water security, as emphasized by Kerry [3]

Core Insights - A new private equity fund named Qingdao Zhilian Green Energy Equity Investment Fund Partnership has been established with a capital contribution of 1 billion RMB [1] - The fund's managing partner is Qingdao Urban Investment Private Fund Management Co., Ltd., and its business scope includes private equity investment, investment management, and asset management activities [1] - The fund is jointly funded by Qingdao Urban Investment Venture Capital Co., Ltd., Qingdao Financial Cooperation Project Guidance Fund Partnership, and Qingdao Science and Technology Innovation Fund Partnership [1]

Core Insights - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 288,229 billion yuan from January to July, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.6% [1] Group 1: Equipment Investment - The "Two New" policies have led to a significant increase in equipment purchase investment, which grew by 15.2% year-on-year, outpacing overall investment growth by 13.6 percentage points, contributing 2.2 percentage points to total investment growth [2] Group 2: Manufacturing Investment - Manufacturing investment has seen a robust increase, growing by 6.2% year-on-year, which is 4.6 percentage points higher than the overall investment growth, contributing 1.5 percentage points to total investment growth. Notably, consumer goods manufacturing investment rose by 10.8%, while equipment manufacturing investment increased by 4.8%. High-tech manufacturing sectors such as aerospace and equipment manufacturing saw investment growth of 33.9% and 16.0%, respectively [3] Group 3: Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment has shown a steady growth of 3.2% year-on-year, exceeding overall investment growth by 1.6 percentage points, with a contribution rate of 43.0% to total investment growth, an increase of 6.0 percentage points from the first half of the year. Key sectors include water transportation (18.9% growth), water management (12.6% growth), and railway transportation (5.9% growth) [4] Group 4: Green Energy Investment - Green energy investment has surged, with the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector growing by 21.5% year-on-year, contributing 1.4 percentage points to total investment growth. Investments in solar, wind, nuclear, and hydropower collectively increased by 21.9% [5] Group 5: High-Tech Service Investment - High-tech service investment has expanded, growing by 6.2% year-on-year, which is 4.6 percentage points higher than overall investment growth. This sector now accounts for 5.1% of total service industry investment, up by 0.4 percentage points from the same period last year, with information service investment increasing by 32.8% [6] Group 6: Project Investment - National project investment (excluding real estate development) grew by 5.3% year-on-year, surpassing overall investment growth by 3.7 percentage points. Projects with total planned investments of 100 million yuan and above saw a 4.1% increase, contributing 2.3 percentage points to total investment growth. Private sector project investment (excluding real estate) rose by 3.9%, with notable growth in accommodation and catering (19.6%), infrastructure (8.8%), and cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors (8.1%) [7]

Core Viewpoint - Pacific Securities recently initiated coverage on Sichuan Chengyu (601107) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting effective cost control and successful bidding for the Chengya expansion project [1] Financial Performance - In the 2024 annual report, Sichuan Chengyu achieved total revenue of 10.362 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.07%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.459 billion, an increase of 22.91%; and non-recurring net profit was 1.39 billion, up 27.22% [2] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.85 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.08%, while non-recurring net profit increased to 443 million, a rise of 16.51% [3] Business Overview - Sichuan Chengyu is the only A+H share listed company in Sichuan focusing on highway infrastructure, involved in investment, construction, operation, and management of highways, as well as green energy investments and resource development [4] - As of the end of 2024, the company operates approximately 900 kilometers of highways, with 858 kilometers being toll roads, and has ongoing construction for the Chengle expansion project covering about 136.1 kilometers [4] Investment Outlook - The company has completed the Tianqiong Expressway and is currently working on the Chengle expansion project, having won the bid for the Chengya expansion project in July [5] - The company is expected to maintain its dividend policy, proposing a cash dividend of approximately 890 million for 2024, which represents 60.8% of the annual net profit, with a dividend yield of about 5.77% based on the closing price on the report date [2][5]