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【申万固收|地方债周报】下周置换隐债地方债发行提速,2月或集中在首周发行——地方债周度跟踪20260130
Group 1 - The issuance and net financing of local bonds have significantly increased, with a total issuance/net financing of 439.275 billion yuan/310.854 billion yuan for the current period, compared to 231.570 billion yuan/203.160 billion yuan in the previous period. The next period is expected to see an issuance/net financing of 579.673 billion yuan/578.927 billion yuan [4] - The weighted average issuance term of local bonds has lengthened to 17.31 years from 15.88 years in the previous period [4] - The issuance progress of new general bonds is slower than the same period in 2024/2025, while the issuance of new special bonds is faster, with cumulative issuance ratios of 7.6% for general bonds and 8.4% for special bonds as of January 30, 2026 [4][7] Group 2 - The planned issuance of local bonds for the first quarter of 2026 totals 24,885 billion yuan, which is comparable to the same period last year [4] - The issuance of special new special bonds for this period was 19.1 billion yuan, with 839 billion yuan for replacing hidden debts, and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 2,507 billion yuan [4] - The yield spread between local bonds and national bonds has narrowed for 10-year bonds and widened for 30-year bonds, with weekly turnover rates remaining stable at 0.66% [19][21]