Group 1 - The issuance and net financing of local bonds have significantly increased, with a total issuance/net financing of 439.275 billion yuan/310.854 billion yuan for the current period, compared to 231.570 billion yuan/203.160 billion yuan in the previous period. The next period is expected to see an issuance/net financing of 579.673 billion yuan/578.927 billion yuan [4] - The weighted average issuance term of local bonds has lengthened to 17.31 years from 15.88 years in the previous period [4] - The issuance progress of new general bonds is slower than the same period in 2024/2025, while the issuance of new special bonds is faster, with cumulative issuance ratios of 7.6% for general bonds and 8.4% for special bonds as of January 30, 2026 [4][7] Group 2 - The planned issuance of local bonds for the first quarter of 2026 totals 24,885 billion yuan, which is comparable to the same period last year [4] - The issuance of special new special bonds for this period was 19.1 billion yuan, with 839 billion yuan for replacing hidden debts, and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 2,507 billion yuan [4] - The yield spread between local bonds and national bonds has narrowed for 10-year bonds and widened for 30-year bonds, with weekly turnover rates remaining stable at 0.66% [19][21]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government bonds is expected to accelerate in 2026, with a focus on effective investment and economic stabilization, particularly in new infrastructure and urban renewal projects [1][3][4]. Group 1: Local Government Bond Issuance - Ningbo issued 25.372 billion yuan in local bonds on January 8, while Shandong was the first province to issue bonds this year with 72.381 billion yuan on January 5 [1]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to expedite the allocation of the 2026 local government debt limit, facilitating early issuance and usage of bonds to support key projects [2]. - As of January 8, 27 regions, including Beijing and Hebei, have disclosed bond issuance plans for the first quarter, totaling approximately 2 trillion yuan [2]. Group 2: Investment Focus and Economic Impact - The newly disclosed special bonds are primarily directed towards new infrastructure and urban renewal, which are expected to enhance effective investment and stimulate domestic demand [1][3]. - The first quarter of 2026 is projected to see a significant issuance of special bonds, with an estimated scale of around 670 billion yuan [3]. - The focus on major projects in transportation, energy, and urban renewal is seen as essential for both expanding domestic demand and ensuring high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3][4]. Group 3: Trends in Special Bond Issuance - The issuance and utilization of special bonds in 2026 are anticipated to follow three main trends: steady expansion of issuance scale, continued front-loading of issuance rhythm, and an expanded range of funding applications [4]. - The expansion of the funding scope for special bonds will include quasi-public sectors such as the acquisition of existing residential properties [4]. - There is a need for enhanced evaluation mechanisms for special bond projects to ensure quality and prevent misuse of funds [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, maintaining necessary expenditure intensity and potentially increasing the deficit scale to nearly 6 trillion yuan, with new special bond issuance expected to reach 5 trillion yuan [1][2]. Fiscal Policy Direction - The fiscal policy for 2026 will focus on expanding fiscal expenditure, optimizing government bond tools, enhancing transfer payment efficiency, and improving expenditure structure to support key areas [2][4]. - The expected deficit scale for 2026 is close to 6 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate projected to be no less than 4% [2][3]. Debt Management - The total new debt scale for 2026 is anticipated to rise to 15 trillion yuan, with new special bonds expected to reach 5 trillion yuan [4][5]. - The issuance of special bonds is deemed necessary to support infrastructure investment and stimulate economic growth [5][6]. Local Government Support - The central government plans to increase transfer payments to local governments, likely exceeding 10 trillion yuan, to alleviate local fiscal difficulties and encourage economic development [2][3]. - There is a focus on addressing local fiscal challenges and improving the local tax system, with potential reforms in consumption tax and local tax structures expected in 2026 [7]. Structural Adjustments - The fiscal expenditure in 2026 is expected to increase slightly compared to 2025, with a focus on structural adjustments to enhance the effectiveness of fiscal policies [3][4]. - The reform of the local tax system aims to incentivize local governments to cultivate tax sources and shift from production-oriented competition to consumption-oriented competition [7].

Group 1 - The central economic work conference proposed to continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, maintaining necessary expenditure intensity and a deficit scale close to 6 trillion yuan [1][2] - The expected scale of new special bonds in 2026 is projected to reach 5 trillion yuan, with an emphasis on optimizing the government bond tool mix and enhancing the effectiveness of transfer payments [2][4] - Analysts suggest that the fiscal situation in 2026 will likely remain under pressure, but the role of fiscal policy as a foundation for national governance necessitates continued proactive measures to stimulate demand and support consumption [2][3] Group 2 - The expected deficit rate for 2026 is projected to be no less than 4%, with the total new debt scale anticipated to increase to 15 trillion yuan [4][5] - The increase in new special bonds is expected to support infrastructure investment and address local government financial difficulties, with a potential rise in the issuance of long-term special bonds [5][6] - The central government is likely to increase transfer payments to local governments, exceeding 10 trillion yuan, to alleviate fiscal challenges and stimulate local economic development [2][3] Group 3 - The conference emphasized the importance of addressing local fiscal difficulties and improving the local tax system, with potential reforms in consumption tax expected to accelerate in 2026 [7] - Analysts foresee three main directions for fiscal reform in 2026: shifting consumption tax collection to local levels, optimizing the sharing ratio of shared taxes, and merging various local additional taxes into a single local additional tax [7][8] - The proposed reforms aim to incentivize local governments to cultivate tax sources and improve the consumption environment, thereby enhancing the overall supply-demand relationship [7][8]

Report Information - Report Date: December 19, 2025 [1] - Report Title: 2025 November Fiscal Data Review - Research Team: Fixed Income Research Team [2] - Analysts: Chen Xi, Wang Shuaizhong [3] - Event: The Ministry of Finance announced the fiscal data for November 2025 [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In 2025 H2, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly [8] - Structural issues such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise [8] - The bond - stock allocation continues to shift, and bond yields are expected to rise continuously [8] Summary by Relevant Catalog 11 - month Fiscal Data Focus - Tax revenue continued positive growth, and the decline of non - tax revenue narrowed. In November, tax revenue increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and has maintained positive growth for 8 consecutive months. The decline of corporate income tax and individual income tax in November may be the main reason for the slowdown in tax revenue growth. The securities trading stamp tax increased by 2.3% year - on - year in November, with a slower growth rate. The importance of investing in people is highlighted, and attention should be paid to fiscal expenditures in related industries. [5] - The decline in land transfer income continued to drag down government fund revenue. From January to November, government fund revenue decreased by 4.9% year - on - year, with land transfer income down 10.7%. The real estate market is in a transition period, and the ebb of land finance may still drag down government fund revenue. [5] - Government fund expenditures turned positive year - on - year in November, reaching 2.8%, up 41 pct from October. Central government fund expenditures increased significantly to 31.5%, up 25.2 pct from the previous value. In October, the central government allocated 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit. The issuance of new special bonds accelerated in November, and the issuance progress reached 101.3% by the end of November, up 11.2 pct from October. [6] General Public Budget - **Income**: In November, general public budget income decreased by 0.02% year - on - year. Central income decreased by 4.2% year - on - year, while local income increased by 4.1%. Tax revenue items such as foreign - trade enterprise export tax rebates, property tax, deed tax, land value - added tax, urban land use tax, and environmental protection tax increased compared with October. Non - tax revenue decreased by 10.8% year - on - year. [7] - **Expenditure**: In November, general public budget expenditure decreased by 3.7% year - on - year. Central expenditure increased by 4.9% year - on - year, and local expenditure decreased by 5.1%. Infrastructure expenditure items such as urban and rural community affairs and agriculture, forestry, and water affairs decreased year - on - year, and the increase in central expenditure drove the year - on - year increase in fiscal expenditure in November compared with the previous value. [7] Government Fund Budget - **Income**: In November, government fund income decreased by 15.8% year - on - year. Central income decreased by 9.1% year - on - year, and local income decreased by 16.1%. Land transfer income decreased by 26.8% year - on - year. [7] - **Expenditure**: In November, government fund expenditure increased by 2.8% year - on - year. Central expenditure increased by 31.5% year - on - year, and local expenditure increased by 1.7%. Land transfer expenditures decreased by 7.5% year - on - year. The growth rate of government fund expenditures in November increased compared with October. [7] Bond Market Viewpoint - With the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise [8]

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In the first 11 months of 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget revenue was +0.8%, unchanged from the previous value[1] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget expenditure was +1.4%, down from +2.0%[1] - Government fund budget revenue saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of -4.9%, compared to -2.8% previously[1] - Government fund budget expenditure increased by +13.7%, down from +15.4%[1] Tax Revenue Insights - In November, tax revenue showed a year-on-year decline of -0.02%, with a significant drop in central government revenue by -4.23% and an increase in local government revenue by +4.05%[3] - The four major tax categories experienced a decline in growth rates, with individual income tax growth at +11.43%, consumption tax at +3.31%, and domestic VAT at +3.31%[4] - Corporate income tax growth turned negative, dropping by 12.49 percentage points, likely due to a slowdown in the cleanup of irregular tax subsidies[4] Government Fund Performance - Government fund budget revenue in November showed a year-on-year decline of -15.8%, an improvement from -18.4% in the previous month[24] - Government fund budget expenditure recorded a year-on-year growth of +2.8%, a significant recovery from -38.2%[25] - The cumulative progress of government fund budget revenue for the first 11 months was 64.4%, below the five-year average of 71.5%[25] Infrastructure and Debt Management - The issuance of new local special bonds reached 4.46 trillion yuan, with a completion rate of 96.9% against the annual plan[34] - The acceleration of fiscal spending in November was evident, particularly in infrastructure and employment-related expenditures, which improved significantly[15] - The overall fiscal deposit decline in November indicates a faster allocation of fiscal funds to projects, supporting infrastructure investment stability[15]

Report Overview - Report Title: Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 43, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Cheng Xiaoqing [3] - Report Date: October 27, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - As of October 26, the issuance progress of new special bonds reached 86.6%, with 112.4 billion yuan issued this week, a week - on - week increase of 92.3 billion yuan, and 154.9 billion yuan planned for next week [4] - As of October 26, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in October was 1.3 billion yuan, with 1.3 billion yuan issued this week, a week - on - week increase of 1.3 billion yuan, and the issuance progress reached 84.1%, with 17 billion yuan planned for next week [5][7] - As of October 26, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in October was 132.5 billion yuan [6] - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 165.8 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 185.5 billion yuan, and the net financing is expected to be 178 billion yuan next week. As of October 26, the issuance progress of new local bonds reached 86.2% [8] - As of October 26, the net financing progress of treasury bonds reached 84.0% [12] - As of October 26, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance reached 85.0%, and the net financing is expected to be 178 billion yuan next week [15] - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 23.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 6.9 billion yuan, and the net financing is expected to be 0 billion yuan next week. This week, the net financing of government bonds was 189.3 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 192.5 billion yuan [20]

Group 1: Demand - New housing transaction volume in 20 cities decreased by 61% week-on-week and 48% year-on-year, remaining below seasonal levels [13][15][29] - First-tier cities saw significant declines in new housing transactions, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experiencing week-on-week drops of 78%, 72%, 61%, and 85% respectively [13][15] - Automotive consumption showed a notable increase, with average daily retail sales of passenger cars rising by 49.3% week-on-week, despite a year-on-year decline of 4.8% [38] Group 2: Production - PTA operating rate remained stable at 77.7%, while the operating rate for rebar decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 40.0% [47] - The operating rate for asphalt facilities increased to a year-to-date high of 40.1%, reflecting a 5.7 percentage point rise [47] - Downstream production rates for automotive tires decreased significantly, with full steel tire operating rates dropping by 14.9% and semi-steel tire rates by 18.3% [47][59] Group 3: Investment - Apparent consumption of rebar fell by 39.4% week-on-week to 146.0 million tons, with prices slightly decreasing to 3260.0 yuan per ton [62] - Cement shipment rates decreased week-on-week, with the cement price index dropping by 0.6% to 104.9 points [62][70] - The implementation of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools is expected to accelerate infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter [1] Group 4: Trade - Port container throughput increased by 8.8% week-on-week, surpassing last year's levels, while the CCFI comprehensive index fell by 6.7% [73] - Export shipping prices continued to decline, with significant drops in rates for European and American routes [73][77] - The BDI index also experienced a decline of 4.4% week-on-week [73] Group 5: Prices - Agricultural product wholesale prices saw a slight decrease, with the 200 index dropping by 0.1% [83] - Pork prices fell by 2.7% week-on-week, while vegetable prices decreased by 2.9% [83][86] - The PPI for industrial products decreased by 0.2%, with Brent crude oil prices falling by 0.6% [87] Group 6: Interest Rate Bonds - As of October 10, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds reached 99.3%, with a total issuance of 19,862 billion yuan [102][104] - New general bonds issued totaled 6,717 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 84.0% [107] - The total issuance of government bonds for the year was 121,835 billion yuan, with a net financing scale of 55,837 billion yuan [109]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View No specific core view was clearly presented in the given text. Summary by Related Content Government Bond Net Financing - Government bond net financing was 60.84 billion yuan in Week 37 (9/8 - 9/14) and 31.79 billion yuan in Week 38 (9/15 - 9/21). As of Week 37, the cumulative amount reached 1.11 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 490 billion yuan [1][7]. - The sum of national debt net financing and new local bond issuance was 56.22 billion yuan in Week 37 and 40.56 billion yuan in Week 38. As of Week 37, the cumulative general deficit was 870 billion yuan, with a progress of 78.5%, surpassing the same period last year [1][7]. National Debt - National debt net financing was 41.56 billion yuan in Week 37 and 28.71 billion yuan in Week 38. The total national debt net financing for the year is 666 billion yuan. As of Week 37, the cumulative amount was 530 billion yuan, with a progress of 78.9%, exceeding the average of the past five years [10]. Local Debt - Local debt net financing was 19.28 billion yuan in Week 37 and 3.09 billion yuan in Week 38. As of Week 37, the cumulative amount was 590 billion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 280 billion yuan [12]. - New general debt issuance was 1.47 billion yuan in Week 37 and 2.07 billion yuan in Week 38. The local deficit for 2025 is 80 billion yuan. As of Week 37, the cumulative new general debt was 63.55 billion yuan, with a progress of 79.4%, exceeding the same period last year [12]. - New special - purpose debt issuance was 13.19 billion yuan in Week 37 and 9.78 billion yuan in Week 38. The planned new special - purpose debt for 2025 is 440 billion yuan. As of Week 37, the cumulative amount was 340 billion yuan, with a progress of 77.6%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special - purpose debt of 118.19 billion yuan has been issued, including 21.4 billion yuan since September. Land reserve special - purpose debt of 33.02 billion yuan has been issued [2][15]. Special Refinancing Bonds - Special refinancing bond issuance was 2.62 billion yuan in Week 37 and 2.14 billion yuan in Week 38. As of Week 37, the cumulative amount was 196 billion yuan, with a issuance progress of 98% [2][30]. Urban Investment Bonds - Urban investment bond net financing was 1.55 billion yuan in Week 37 and is expected to be - 0.7 billion yuan in Week 38. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is 1.02 trillion yuan [3][33].

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - As of August 24, the issuance progress of new special-purpose bonds was 69.9%, and 298.6 billion yuan of new special-purpose bonds had been issued in August [4][5]. - As of August 24, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 73.2%, and 47.1 billion yuan of new general bonds had been issued in August [9][24]. - As of August 24, the issuance progress of new local government bonds was 70.4%, and the net financing scale of local government bonds this week was 208.8 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 222.5 billion yuan [12]. - As of August 24, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 73.2%, and the net financing scale of treasury bonds this week was 352.6 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 138 billion yuan [16][18]. - As of August 24, the net financing of treasury bonds plus the issuance progress of new local government bonds was 72.0% [20]. Detailed Data New Special-Purpose Bonds - This week, 239.3 billion yuan of new special-purpose bonds were issued, a week-on-week increase of 220.2 billion yuan [4]. New General Bonds - This week, 9.5 billion yuan of new general bonds were issued, a week-on-week decrease of 20.8 billion yuan [7].