Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View No specific core view was clearly presented in the given text. Summary by Related Content Government Bond Net Financing - Government bond net financing was 60.84 billion yuan in Week 37 (9/8 - 9/14) and 31.79 billion yuan in Week 38 (9/15 - 9/21). As of Week 37, the cumulative amount reached 1.11 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 490 billion yuan [1][7]. - The sum of national debt net financing and new local bond issuance was 56.22 billion yuan in Week 37 and 40.56 billion yuan in Week 38. As of Week 37, the cumulative general deficit was 870 billion yuan, with a progress of 78.5%, surpassing the same period last year [1][7]. National Debt - National debt net financing was 41.56 billion yuan in Week 37 and 28.71 billion yuan in Week 38. The total national debt net financing for the year is 666 billion yuan. As of Week 37, the cumulative amount was 530 billion yuan, with a progress of 78.9%, exceeding the average of the past five years [10]. Local Debt - Local debt net financing was 19.28 billion yuan in Week 37 and 3.09 billion yuan in Week 38. As of Week 37, the cumulative amount was 590 billion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 280 billion yuan [12]. - New general debt issuance was 1.47 billion yuan in Week 37 and 2.07 billion yuan in Week 38. The local deficit for 2025 is 80 billion yuan. As of Week 37, the cumulative new general debt was 63.55 billion yuan, with a progress of 79.4%, exceeding the same period last year [12]. - New special - purpose debt issuance was 13.19 billion yuan in Week 37 and 9.78 billion yuan in Week 38. The planned new special - purpose debt for 2025 is 440 billion yuan. As of Week 37, the cumulative amount was 340 billion yuan, with a progress of 77.6%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special - purpose debt of 118.19 billion yuan has been issued, including 21.4 billion yuan since September. Land reserve special - purpose debt of 33.02 billion yuan has been issued [2][15]. Special Refinancing Bonds - Special refinancing bond issuance was 2.62 billion yuan in Week 37 and 2.14 billion yuan in Week 38. As of Week 37, the cumulative amount was 196 billion yuan, with a issuance progress of 98% [2][30]. Urban Investment Bonds - Urban investment bond net financing was 1.55 billion yuan in Week 37 and is expected to be - 0.7 billion yuan in Week 38. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is 1.02 trillion yuan [3][33].

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - As of August 24, the issuance progress of new special-purpose bonds was 69.9%, and 298.6 billion yuan of new special-purpose bonds had been issued in August [4][5]. - As of August 24, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 73.2%, and 47.1 billion yuan of new general bonds had been issued in August [9][24]. - As of August 24, the issuance progress of new local government bonds was 70.4%, and the net financing scale of local government bonds this week was 208.8 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 222.5 billion yuan [12]. - As of August 24, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 73.2%, and the net financing scale of treasury bonds this week was 352.6 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 138 billion yuan [16][18]. - As of August 24, the net financing of treasury bonds plus the issuance progress of new local government bonds was 72.0% [20]. Detailed Data New Special-Purpose Bonds - This week, 239.3 billion yuan of new special-purpose bonds were issued, a week-on-week increase of 220.2 billion yuan [4]. New General Bonds - This week, 9.5 billion yuan of new general bonds were issued, a week-on-week decrease of 20.8 billion yuan [7].

Revenue Insights - In July 2025, the national general public budget revenue increased by 2.7% year-on-year, improving from a decline of -0.3% in June[1] - Tax revenue grew by 5.0% in July, significantly higher than the previous month's growth of 1.0%, while non-tax revenue fell by 12.9%[5] - The cumulative general public budget revenue from January to July showed a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, compared to a decline of -0.3% previously[7] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure in July rose by 3.0% year-on-year, accelerating by 2.6 percentage points from May[8] - Cumulative expenditure from January to July grew by 3.4%, slightly below the average progress of 54.4% over the past five years, completing 54.1% of the annual budget[9] Government Fund Performance - In July, government fund revenue increased by 8.9% year-on-year, although this was a decrease of 11.9 percentage points from the previous month[10] - Government fund expenditure in July surged by 42.4% year-on-year, despite a slowdown of 36.8 percentage points from the previous month[11] - From January to July, government fund expenditure grew by 31.7%, significantly outpacing the revenue growth due to accelerated issuance of local government special bonds, totaling 2.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 1 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year[11]

General Information - Report title: Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 34, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Cheng Xiaoqing, Qualification No. F3083989, Investment Consultation No. Z0018635 [3] New Special Bond Issuance - As of August 24, the issuance progress of new special bonds reached 69.9% [4] - This week, new special bonds worth 239.3 billion yuan were issued, a week - on - week increase of 220.2 billion yuan [4] - As of August 24, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in August was 29.86 billion yuan [5] New General Bond Issuance - This week, new general bonds worth 9.5 billion yuan were issued, a week - on - week decrease of 20.8 billion yuan [7] - As of August 24, the issuance progress of new general bonds reached 73.2% [9] - As of August 24, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in August was 4.71 billion yuan [24] Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 208.8 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 222.5 billion yuan [12] - As of August 24, the issuance progress of new local bonds reached 70.4% [12] Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 352.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 138 billion yuan [16] - As of August 24, the net financing progress of treasury bonds reached 73.2% [18] Combined Progress - As of August 24, the combined progress of treasury bond net financing and new local bond issuance reached 72.0% [20]

Group 1 - In the first quarter of this year, local government bond issuance exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan, with new special bond issuance surpassing 600 billion yuan, accounting for over 40% of the total [1][2] - The issuance pace of local bonds has significantly accelerated since February, with monthly issuance figures increasing from approximately 384.45 billion yuan in January to 629.45 billion yuan in March [1][2] - The total number of local bonds issued in the first quarter was 303, with a total scale of about 1.573 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - The issuance of new special bonds has also seen a notable increase since February, with January, February, and March figures at 56.78 billion yuan, 346.59 billion yuan, and 230.76 billion yuan respectively [2] - Compared to the same period last year, the issuance of new special bonds is lower, primarily due to the impact of a 1 trillion yuan national bond issued at the end of last year, which reduced the urgency for special bond issuance this year [2] - The funds raised from special bonds are primarily directed towards municipal and industrial park infrastructure, transportation infrastructure, public services, and other key areas, indicating a focus on maintaining high levels of infrastructure investment [2][3] Group 3 - The new local government special debt limit for this year is set at 3.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 100 billion yuan from the previous year, aimed at supporting local governments in addressing key areas [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the importance of improving the efficiency of government investment and its role in driving overall social investment [3] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to February reached 5.0847 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, indicating a positive trend in infrastructure investment [3] Group 4 - The infrastructure sector is expected to remain a primary focus for special bond funding, particularly for major national strategies and projects, to effectively utilize special bonds for counter-cyclical investment stimulation [4] - The issuance pace of local bonds and new special bonds is anticipated to remain steady, supported by the previously issued national bonds [5] - If the long-term special national bonds are issued in large quantities in the second quarter, it may lead to a slowdown in the issuance of ordinary national bonds and new special bonds to avoid pressure on the funding market [5]

Core Viewpoint - Local governments in China have significantly increased their borrowing this year, primarily through the issuance of local government bonds, to stabilize the economy and mitigate risks [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance and Utilization - In the first seven months of this year, approximately 67,037 billion yuan of local government bonds were issued, representing a year-on-year increase of about 60% [1]. - More than half of the bond proceeds are allocated to repay old debts, while nearly half is invested in major project construction [1]. - Of the 67,037 billion yuan issued, about 34,000 billion yuan were refinancing bonds, a 65% increase year-on-year, and approximately 33,000 billion yuan were new bonds, up about 55% year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Debt Management and Financial Relief - The average interest cost of replaced hidden debts has decreased by over 2.5 percentage points, significantly alleviating repayment pressure and releasing fiscal space for development and public welfare [2]. - New bonds are primarily used for major public welfare projects, with 28,000 billion yuan of new special bonds issued in the first seven months, a 57% increase year-on-year, accounting for over 60% of the total annual issuance of 44,000 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Project Funding Allocation - Nearly 20,000 billion yuan of new special bond funds were allocated for project construction, with approximately 26.37% directed towards municipal and industrial park infrastructure, 17.63% towards transportation infrastructure, and 13.03% towards land reserve [3]. - A notable increase in land reserve special bonds issuance, exceeding 2,600 billion yuan, aims to recover idle land and stabilize the real estate market [3]. Group 4: Government Initiatives and Future Projections - The Central Political Bureau has called for accelerated issuance and utilization of government bonds to enhance funding efficiency, with expectations to complete the issuance of 44,000 billion yuan in new special bonds by the end of October [4]. - Research forecasts a local bond issuance scale of 35,000 billion yuan in the third quarter, with a net financing scale of 22,000 billion yuan [5]. Group 5: Debt Management and Safety - The State Council has relaxed restrictions on the use of special bond funds, allowing for greater flexibility and autonomy in project funding, while maintaining overall debt levels within safe limits [6]. - As of June 2025, the total local government debt is 51.95 trillion yuan, below the debt ceiling of approximately 57.99 trillion yuan, with an average remaining maturity of 10.2 years and an average interest rate of 2.93% [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in local government borrowing in China, primarily through the issuance of local government bonds, to stabilize the economy and manage risks amid financial pressures [3][4]. Group 1: Local Government Bond Issuance - In the first seven months of this year, approximately 67,037 billion yuan of local government bonds were issued, representing a year-on-year increase of about 60% [3]. - The bond issuance in June and July exceeded 10,000 billion yuan each, indicating a rapid acceleration in local government borrowing [3]. - Of the 67,037 billion yuan issued, about 34,000 billion yuan were refinancing bonds, which are used to repay old debts, while approximately 33,000 billion yuan were new bonds for major project construction [4]. Group 2: Debt Refinancing and Management - Refinancing bonds are primarily used for "borrowing new to repay old" debts, addressing the significant fiscal imbalance faced by local governments [5]. - The central government has implemented a plan to replace hidden debts with 10 trillion yuan in local government bonds, with 6 trillion yuan allocated for refinancing existing hidden debts [5]. - As of the end of July, nearly 19,000 billion yuan of the 20,000 billion yuan quota for hidden debt replacement had been issued, leading to a reduction in average interest costs by over 2.5 percentage points [6]. Group 3: Use of New Bonds - New bonds are mainly allocated for public welfare projects to stabilize investment and address shortfalls in the economy [6][9]. - In the first seven months, approximately 28,000 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, accounting for over 60% of the annual target of 44,000 billion yuan [6]. - A significant portion of the new special bonds, about 8,000 billion yuan, is designated for resolving existing hidden debts and addressing overdue payments to enterprises [6]. Group 4: Project Funding Allocation - Nearly 20,000 billion yuan of new special bond funds were directed towards project construction, with 26.37% allocated to municipal and industrial park infrastructure, 17.63% to transportation infrastructure, and 13.03% to land reserve projects [9]. - The issuance of land reserve special bonds has surged, exceeding 2,600 billion yuan, aimed at recovering idle land and stabilizing the real estate market [9]. Group 5: Future Expectations and Debt Management - The Central Political Bureau has called for accelerating the issuance and utilization of government bonds to enhance funding efficiency [10]. - Experts predict that local government bond issuance will reach 35,000 billion yuan in the third quarter, with a net financing scale of 22,000 billion yuan [11]. - As of June 2025, the total local government debt was 51.95 trillion yuan, remaining below the debt ceiling of approximately 57.99 trillion yuan, indicating that local debt risks are generally manageable [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - Local governments in China have significantly increased their borrowing this year to stabilize the economy and mitigate risks, with a record issuance of local government bonds [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance and Utilization - In the first seven months of this year, approximately 67,037 billion yuan of local government bonds were issued, marking a year-on-year increase of about 60% [1]. - More than half of the bond proceeds are allocated to repay old debts, while nearly half is invested in major project construction [1]. - Of the 67,037 billion yuan issued, about 34,000 billion yuan were refinancing bonds, up 65% year-on-year, and approximately 33,000 billion yuan were new bonds, increasing by about 55% [1][2]. Group 2: Refinancing and Debt Management - Refinancing bonds are primarily used for "borrowing new to repay old" debts, addressing the significant fiscal imbalance faced by local governments [2]. - The central government initiated a plan to replace hidden debts with local government bonds, with a total of 10 trillion yuan allocated for this purpose, of which 6 trillion yuan is through refinancing bonds [2]. Group 3: Project Funding and Special Bonds - New bonds are mainly directed towards major public welfare projects to stabilize investment and address shortfalls [3]. - In the first seven months, approximately 28,000 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, accounting for over 60% of the total annual issuance target of 44,000 billion yuan [3]. - A significant portion of the new special bonds, around 8,000 billion yuan, is earmarked for resolving hidden debt issues and settling overdue payments to enterprises [3][4]. Group 4: Infrastructure Investment - About 26.37% of the new special bond funds are allocated to municipal and industrial park infrastructure, while 17.63% is directed towards transportation infrastructure [10]. - The issuance of land reserve special bonds has surged, with over 2,600 billion yuan issued in the first seven months, aimed at recovering idle land and stabilizing the real estate market [10]. Group 5: Future Expectations and Debt Management - The central government has emphasized accelerating the issuance and utilization of government bonds to enhance funding efficiency [11]. - Experts predict that local governments will complete the issuance of 44,000 billion yuan in new special bonds by the end of October, with a focus on increasing project initiation rates [11]. - As of June 2025, the total local government debt is projected to be 51.95 trillion yuan, remaining below the debt ceiling of approximately 57.99 trillion yuan [12].

Core Viewpoint - Local government bond issuance has reached a record high in the first seven months of the year, with a total of 6.7 trillion yuan, primarily aimed at refinancing old debts and funding major projects [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance and Purpose - In the first seven months, approximately 3.4 trillion yuan of refinancing bonds were issued, marking a 65% year-on-year increase, while new bonds totaled about 3.3 trillion yuan, up approximately 55% [1][2]. - More than half of the bond proceeds are allocated to repay old debts, with nearly half directed towards major project construction [1]. - The issuance of special bonds has been significant, with about 2.8 trillion yuan in new special bonds issued, accounting for over 60% of the annual target of 4.4 trillion yuan [2]. Group 2: Debt Management and Financial Impact - The average interest cost of replaced hidden debts has decreased by over 2.5 percentage points, significantly easing repayment pressure and releasing fiscal space for development and public welfare [2]. - Special new bonds, totaling approximately 755 billion yuan, are specifically aimed at resolving hidden debt issues and addressing overdue payments to enterprises [2]. Group 3: Project Funding Allocation - Of the nearly 2 trillion yuan allocated for project construction from new special bonds, approximately 26.37% is directed towards municipal and industrial park infrastructure, 17.63% towards transportation infrastructure, and 13.03% towards land reserve projects [8]. - The issuance of land reserve special bonds has surged, exceeding 260 billion yuan, aimed at recovering idle land and stabilizing the real estate market [8]. Group 4: Future Expectations and Efficiency - The central government has called for accelerated bond issuance and improved fund utilization efficiency, with expectations that local governments will complete the issuance of 4.4 trillion yuan in new special bonds by the end of October [9]. - The State Council has significantly relaxed the restrictions on the use of special bond funds, allowing for greater flexibility and autonomy in project funding [10]. - As of June 2025, the total local government debt is projected to be 51.95 trillion yuan, remaining below the debt ceiling of approximately 57.99 trillion yuan, indicating manageable debt risk [10].

Group 1 - In July, the issuance of new special bonds reached 616.936 billion yuan, an increase of 89.842 billion yuan from the previous month, marking a new high for the year [1] - In the first half of the year, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds amounted to 2.16 trillion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 45%, with a noticeable acceleration in the pace of issuance [3] - The acceleration of new special bond issuance is crucial for providing sufficient funding for major project construction, with over 1.6 trillion yuan available for use from August to December [4] Group 2 - The new special bond issuance will significantly support infrastructure investment, with funds primarily directed towards municipal and industrial park infrastructure, transportation infrastructure, and public services [5] - The timely availability of special bond funds helps alleviate the funding pressure on infrastructure projects, playing an important role in stabilizing investment and growth [5] - The acceleration of new special bond issuance is expected to provide strong support for the rebound of infrastructure investment growth in the second half of the year, benefiting related industries such as steel, cement, and construction machinery [5]