中信期货有限公司 CITIC Futures Company Limited 2000 10000 1500 5000 1000 500 -5000 -500 L 1月 2月 3月 8月 9月 11月 12月 1月 8月 10月 11月 12月 2月 4月 5月 RH 7月 10月 3月 4月 5月 8月 7月 9月 本周新增一般债发行95亿，环比减少208亿 政府债发行追踪―2025年第34周 研究员: 程小庆 从业资格号 F3083989 投资咨询号 Z0018635 截至8/24, 新增专项债发行进度为69.9% 本周新增专项债发行2393亿，环比增加2202亿 2025 近2年均值 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 1.5 - 4500 4000 3000 0.5 2000 1000 = = = -0.5 L 第1周 第4周 第12周 第16周 第20周 第24周 第28周 第31周 第35周 第39周 第43周 第47周 第51周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 第1周 第5周 截至 ...

中信期货有限公司 CITIC Futures Company Limited 政府债发行追踪―2025年第34周 2025 近2年均值 800 r 600 400 200 0 -50 第1周 第5周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 研究员: 程小庆 从业资格号 F3083989 投资咨询号 Z0018635 截至8/24, 新增专项债发行进度为69.9% 本周新增专项债发行2393亿，环比增加2202亿 2025 近2年均值 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 1.5 - 4500 4000 3000 0.5 2000 1000 = = = -0.5 L 第1周 第4周 第12周 第16周 第20周 第24周 第28周 第31周 第35周 第39周 第43周 第47周 第51周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 第1周 第5周 截至8/24, 8月新增专项债累计发行2986亿元 2025 -- 2024 - 20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The foundation of economic recovery needs to be consolidated, and domestic demand restoration still requires policy support. Attention should be paid to the policy signals released by the Politburo meeting in July [1]. - The property market shows a weak performance, and the supply - demand sides are both weak. In the second half of the year, more active property - easing policies may be needed to release the demand for improved housing [2][3]. - The commodity futures market is generally rising, with black - series, new - energy materials, and building materials leading the gains. The "anti - involution" policy strengthens the supply - side contraction expectation and drives the industry valuation repair [7][106]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Demand: New home sales increase month - on - month, and automobile consumption shows marginal improvement - New home sales: The transaction area of 20 - city commercial housing increased by 22% month - on - month and decreased by 7% year - on - year as of the week ending July 25. Second and third - tier cities had larger increases in new home sales, while first - tier cities decreased by 7% [13]. - Second - hand home sales: Among the monitored key cities, Beijing and Shanghai's second - hand home transaction areas increased by 4% and 3% month - on - month respectively, while Shenzhen and Hangzhou decreased by 13% and 15% [33]. - Automobile consumption: The average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 22.4% month - on - month and 14.3% year - on - year as of the week ending July 25. The national movie box office increased by 39.0% month - on - month, but was weaker than the same period last year. The national migration scale index decreased by 2.2% month - on - month [42]. 3.2 Production: Industrial production runs smoothly, and infrastructure construction starts remain strong - Mid - and upstream: As of the week ending July 25, the Tangshan blast furnace operating rate remained at 80.4%, the rebar operating rate rose by 1.0 pct to 43.9%, the PTA operating rate remained at 80.8%, the polyester filament operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased by 0.8 pct to 92.1%, and the petroleum asphalt plant operating rate decreased by 4.0 pct to 28.8% [49]. - Downstream: The operating rates of automobile all - steel tires and semi - steel tires decreased month - on - month, but the semi - steel tire operating rate was still at a seasonal high [49]. 3.3 Investment: Apparent consumption of rebar improves, and rebar prices continue to rise - Rebar: As of the week ending July 25, the apparent consumption of rebar increased by 5.0% month - on - month to 217 tons, and the rebar price increased by 4.3% month - on - month to 3433.2 yuan/ton [64]. - Cement: As of the week ending July 25, the cement price decreased by 1.9% month - on - month to 105.9 points. As of the week ending July 18, the cement shipping rate increased by 0.8 pct to 40.9%, and the cement inventory ratio increased by 0.8 pct to 62.3% [64]. 3.4 Trade: Port throughput increases, and export container shipping prices decline - Export: As of the week ending July 25, port container throughput increased by 2.6% month - on - month, higher than the same period last year. The CCFI composite index decreased by 3.2% month - on - month. The BDI index continued to rise, increasing by 10.9% month - on - month [73]. - Import: The CICFI composite index decreased by 0.5% month - on - month [6]. 3.5 Prices: Agricultural product prices decline, and black - series products lead the gains - CPI: The agricultural product wholesale price 200 index decreased by 0.2% month - on - month as of the week ending July 25. Pork, egg, and vegetable prices increased, while fruit prices decreased [7]. - PPI: The Nanhua industrial product price index increased by 4.2% month - on - month. Brent crude oil spot price decreased by 1.1% month - on - month, COMEX gold futures price increased by 1.3% month - on - month, and LME copper spot price increased by 2.4% month - on - month [7]. - Commodity futures: Polysilicon futures settlement price increased by 17.5%, industrial silicon futures settlement price increased by 9.0%, coking coal futures settlement price increased by 28.9%, coke futures settlement price increased by 13.8%, glass futures settlement price increased by 21.1%, and PVC futures settlement price increased by 6.5% [106]. 3.6 Interest - rate Bond Tracking: The cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year exceeds 94% - Next week (July 28 - August 1): The planned issuance of interest - rate bonds is 5532 billion yuan, with a net financing of 4345 billion yuan. Among them, treasury bonds are planned to issue 1800 billion yuan with a net financing of 1600 billion yuan, local bonds 3372 billion yuan with a net financing of 2431 billion yuan, and policy - bank bonds 360 billion yuan with a net financing of 315 billion yuan [110]. - Issuance progress: As of July 25, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds was 94.1%, that of new general bonds was 64.7%, and that of new special bonds was 59.0%. The cumulative net issuance progress of treasury bonds was 57.7%, and that of policy - bank bonds was 68.6% [8][114][116]. 3.7 Policy Weekly Observation - On July 21, the "Housing Rental Regulations" was announced to regulate the housing rental market [118]. - On July 23, a subsidy project for elderly care services for moderately and severely disabled elderly was launched [119]. - On July 23, the tax policy for goods in Hainan Free Trade Port at the time of full - island customs closure was released [120]. - On July 25, it was reported that the national general public budget expenditure in the first half of 2025 was 141271 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [121]. - On July 22, Chengdu planned to cancel housing sales restrictions in batches and increase housing provident fund loan support [123]. - On July 24, Zhongshan introduced measures to promote the high - quality development of the real - estate market [124].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The real - estate market shows weak supply and demand, and more aggressive easing policies may be needed in the second half of the year. The strength of policy implementation will significantly affect the real - estate market and investment. Industrial production runs smoothly, and infrastructure construction starts strongly. There are fluctuations in consumption, investment, trade, and prices, and the issuance progress of interest - rate bonds is relatively fast. [1][2][3][4][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Demand - New home sales declined both month - on - month and year - on - year, with significant drops in first - and second - tier cities. The real - estate market's supply and demand are weak, and more aggressive easing policies are needed to release the demand for improved housing. If policy strength exceeds expectations, the decline in real - estate sales and investment may slow down; otherwise, the market may remain at a low level. Second - hand home sales also decreased month - on - month. Automobile consumption declined marginally, while the national migration scale index increased, and the subway passenger volume in first - tier cities decreased. [11][41] 3.2 Production - In the mid - and upstream sectors, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan decreased, while the PTA operating rate increased. In the downstream sectors, the operating rates of automobile all - steel and semi - steel tires improved, and the semi - steel tire operating rate remained at a seasonal high. The infrastructure construction start - up showed marginal improvement. [48] 3.3 Investment - The apparent consumption of rebar decreased, but its price increased. The price of cement decreased, and the cement shipment rate and inventory ratio also declined. [64] 3.4 Trade - In terms of exports, port container throughput decreased, and the overall container shipping price declined, with the European route rising and the US West and East routes falling. The BDI index increased. In terms of imports, the container shipping price continued to decline. [75] 3.5 Prices - Agricultural product prices showed a marginal improvement, with pork and vegetable prices rising and egg and fruit prices falling. International crude oil prices generally increased, while the price of gold slightly declined. [86][96] 3.6 Interest - rate Bond Tracking - Next week (July 14 - 18), the planned issuance of interest - rate bonds is 500.2 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 10.6 billion yuan. As of July 11, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds exceeded 90%, and the issuance progress of new general bonds and new special bonds was 58.3% and 50.6% respectively. [106][109][112] 3.7 Policy Weekly Observation - The central bank increased its gold reserves for the 8th consecutive month in June. The State Council issued a notice to support stable employment. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3500 points. Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting from August 1. The Ministry of Finance adjusted the assessment of state - owned commercial insurance companies. Some cities adjusted housing - related policies, including housing provident fund policies and housing consumption supply optimization. [118][119][120][121][122][123]