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美债多头拥挤,市场屏息以待 “非农大考”
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-02 06:42
Group 1 - Bond traders have rapidly built long positions in U.S. Treasuries, betting that the upcoming employment report will provide further momentum for the market [1] - The June non-farm payroll report is seen as a significant risk event for long investors, especially after the JOLTS job openings report showed a surprising increase in May, leading to a sell-off in the bond market [1] - Citigroup strategist David Bieber noted that the continued accumulation of long positions has reached a "highly extended" state, indicating potential for a significant pullback if employment data is strong [1] Group 2 - JPMorgan's recent survey indicated that absolute long positions in U.S. Treasuries have risen to the highest level in two weeks, with net long positions increasing by two percentage points [2] - There has been a shift towards bullish options in the Treasury market, with traders willing to pay premiums to hedge against significant price increases rather than declines [2] - Columbia Threadneedle Investment's global rates strategist mentioned that if employment data exceeds expectations, the probability of a rate cut in July could drop to zero [2]