Group 1: Major Asset & Overseas Events & Data - The three major US stock indices rose collectively, with the S&P 500 up 1.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 2.3% [2][3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 6.0 basis points to 4.4% [2][3] - The US dollar index fell by 0.3% to 96.99, while the offshore RMB appreciated to 7.1701 [2][3] - WTI crude oil rose by 1.5% to $66.5 per barrel, and COMEX gold increased by 1.9% to $3332.5 per ounce [2][3] Group 2: Employment Data - The US non-farm payrolls for June exceeded market expectations, with an addition of 147,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% [51][52] - The primary driver of job growth was an increase in state and local government employment [51] - The average hourly wage increased by 0.2%, below the market expectation of 0.3% [51] Group 3: Tariff and Trade Risks - The 90-day "tariff suspension" on US imports is set to expire on July 9, raising concerns about potential tariff increases [41][42] - Approximately 20 countries with slow negotiation progress may see the restoration of initial tariff rates unless recognized as "good faith negotiators" [41] - Vietnam is facing a potential 20% tariff on its goods, with a 40% tariff on third-country goods transshipped through Vietnam [41][42] Group 4: Bond Market - The demand for US Treasury auctions remained robust, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.26 for the 4-week bill, indicating strong interest [44][45] - The indirect bid percentage reached 78.6%, the highest in recent months, reflecting increased interest from overseas officials and money funds [44][45] Group 5: Commodity Market - Most commodities saw price increases, with WTI crude oil up 1.5% and COMEX gold up 1.9% [31][35] - The inflation expectations rose by 4 basis points to 2.3% [35]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions will be a critical variable for market dynamics, as strong demand could lower yields and support the dollar, while weak demand may raise concerns about U.S. debt and weaken the dollar [1] Auction Details - The U.S. is scheduled to auction $69 billion in two-year notes on Tuesday, $70 billion in five-year notes on Wednesday, and $44 billion in seven-year notes on Thursday [1] - Strong demand in these auctions could alleviate market anxiety, potentially leading to a decline in Treasury yields and an increase in the dollar's value [1] Market Implications - If demand is weak, particularly from foreign institutions, it could reignite concerns regarding U.S. debt issues, resulting in rising yields and a weakening dollar [1]