Group 1 - The failure of the tariff war is considered one of the most serious strategic mistakes for the US since World War II, leading to a gradual erosion of the dollar system and potential collapse of the US economy and financial system [1] - From April 2025, 12 countries including Japan, France, and the UK began to reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds, with a single-month net reduction exceeding $90 billion, including a $44.1 billion sell-off by the UK and approximately $50 billion by Japan, marking a near 10-year high in weekly sell-offs [1] - US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the current situation is "extremely unusual," with increasing investor skepticism regarding the future repayment capability of US Treasury bonds [1] Group 2 - The US is facing a fiscal crisis, with the potential for a "blow-up" in the Treasury bond market, driven by a series of actions from the Trump administration, including tariffs aimed at inducing high inflation to prompt Federal Reserve intervention [3] - The ultimate goal of these actions is to dilute the $6.5 trillion in Treasury bonds maturing in June, as a turbulent bond market could threaten the entire dollar financial hegemony [3] - The US may consider restructuring its $36 trillion debt by replacing Treasury bonds with long-term, non-tradable, and zero-interest bonds, potentially allowing it to evade over $30 trillion in debt and more than $1 trillion in annual interest payments [3] Group 3 - The ongoing sell-off of US Treasury bonds may continue, especially as China has not yet significantly reduced its holdings [4] - China's countermeasures, including tariff retaliation and supply chain disruptions, have led to significant market reactions, including a $5 trillion evaporation in US stock market value and a 10% drop in Tesla's stock price [4] - The US inflation rate has surged to a 40-year high, with ordinary families facing an additional $300 monthly expense due to tariffs, indicating the widespread impact of the tariff war on the economy [9] Group 4 - The tariff war has destabilized the US Treasury system, with $6.5 trillion in bonds maturing in June and an additional $3 trillion by the end of the year, followed by $8 trillion next year, creating a domino effect pushing the US towards potential bankruptcy [9] - The adverse effects of the tariff war are also evident in the technology sector, with major companies like Intel announcing plans to cut 20% of their workforce [9]