策略报告 | 投资策略 A 股策略周思考 证券研究报告 牛市的规律与洼地 市场思考：当前全 A 估值分布运动情况与历次牛市的对比 估值变异系数可以用来衡量个股的估值分布情况，在行情出现普涨时个股的 估值分化程度会减小，换而言之，在牛市中市场是"投票机"，而在熊市中 市场则是"称重机"。在 A 股动静框架之静态指标中，我们有市场配置指标 ——估值（PE）变异系数来跟踪全市场个股估值的分布情况。本章则采用 PB 视角切入，并且针对 14 年至今的 3 轮牛市的演绎调整具体展开。 1）7 月财政收入累计同比回正，当月同比回升转正，税收收入同比回升， 非税收入同比继续回落，财政支出同比回升。7 月全国政府性基金收入、国 有土地使用权出让收入同比回落，全国政府性基金支出同比回落。2）交运 高频指标方面，地铁客运量指数回落。3）工业生产腾落指数回升，从分项 上看，纯碱、甲醇、山东地炼、涤纶长丝、轮胎回升，唐山高炉持平。4） 国内政策跟踪：总理李强主持召开国务院第九次全体会议；国务院新闻办公 室举行新闻发布会，介绍阅兵准备工作有关情况；李强主持召开国务院常务 会议。 国际：鲍威尔发言加大市场押注降息概率 1）俄乌冲突跟踪： ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Tianfeng Securities indicates that after the market reached new highs, there is an accelerated entry of sidelined funds, emphasizing a cautious and steady approach to investment [1][3]. Investment Themes - Investment themes can be categorized into three main directions: 1) Breakthroughs in Deepseek and leadership in open-source technology AI+ 2) Valuation recovery in consumer stocks and gradual recovery in consumer segmentation 3) Continued rise of undervalued dividends [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The report analyzes the logic behind the A-share market's volume increase and new highs, noting that weak returns in the real economy may lead private sector asset allocation to shift towards financial assets. Historical patterns show that during previous bull markets, non-bank deposits significantly increased when real estate and economic returns were weak [1][2]. Consumer Sector Insights - The core factor for investment in the consumer sector is valuation. Given the current low valuations, declining interest rates, and policy catalysts, the consumer recovery cycle is expected to gain momentum. Being overly pessimistic about future consumer performance may be excessively conservative [1][3]. International Context - The report highlights international developments, including the U.S. core CPI growth exceeding expectations, with July's core CPI year-on-year at 3.1%, up from a previous 2.9% [2].

Group 1: Market Insights - The report indicates that the upcoming bull market is influenced by weak returns in the real economy, leading private sector investments to shift towards financial assets, particularly during periods of low returns in real estate and the economy [1][10][11] - Historical data shows that during previous major bull markets, such as 2006-2007 and 2013-2015, the proportion of non-bank deposits significantly increased, indicating a shift in asset allocation towards financial markets [11][15] - The report highlights that the current economic environment, characterized by low returns in the real estate market and a decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), suggests that the return rates in the real economy remain insufficient [18][14] Group 2: Economic Data Trends - Recent economic data from July shows a decline in growth rates across three major indicators: industrial production, investment, and retail sales, all falling below expectations [2][36] - Industrial production year-on-year growth was reported at 5.7%, below the expected 5.82%, while retail sales growth was at 3.7%, compared to an expected 4.87% [36] - The report notes that the financing pulse continues to recover, with new RMB loans turning negative year-on-year, indicating a tightening in credit conditions [2][36] Group 3: International Economic Context - The report tracks international developments, noting that the U.S. core CPI growth in July exceeded market expectations, which may influence global economic conditions [3][20] - The geopolitical landscape, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, is also highlighted as a factor that could impact market stability and investor sentiment [3][20] Group 4: Industry Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: advancements in technology AI, recovery in consumer stock valuations, and the resurgence of undervalued dividend stocks [4][10] - It emphasizes the importance of a cautious approach in the current market environment, particularly in the context of the ongoing bull market and the influx of capital from previously sidelined investors [4][10] - The report also points out that the performance of undervalued dividend stocks is closely tied to the progress of the AI industry trend [4][10]

以下文章来源于锦缎研究院 ，作者牧之 锦缎研究院 . 专注上市公司价值发现与传播 本文来自微信公众号： 锦缎研究院 ，作者：牧之，题图来自：AI生成 也许到未来某个时候，我们才会知道今天的Meta创始人扎克伯格究竟看到了什么，让他愿意此刻在 AI赛道一掷千金。 仅仅在过去的12个月中，Meta在AI赛道的花钱的速度，几乎每天都是媒体热点： 斥资 143 亿美元收购了数据标注公司Scale AI 49% 的股份，并聘请其首席执行官 Alexandr Wang 担 任 Meta 的首席 AI 官； 向10～20名顶级AI人才提供了1亿至3亿美元的薪酬包，总计可能在10亿至 60 亿美元之间 （基于多 年合同，且部分为股权） ，天价合同让拿惯了大合同的体育明星也为之失色。 根据Meta 首席财务官Susan Li的表态，Meta2025年的总支出预计在1140亿至1180亿美元之间，其中 绝大部分都用在了AI基础设施建设上。 说出来你可能不信，Meta甚至不是过去5年美国科技巨头中资本开支最高的： 从真金白银的资本开支层面衡量，四大互联网科技公司在过去4年中的资本开支最少的也是翻倍， 2024年总开支相当于1.7万 ...

周期、制造多主题走出主升形态 团队成员 策 略 研 究 投资要点： 策 略 定 期 报 告 主题投资数据库旨在筛选优秀量价形态的主题机会，把握热门主题的 见顶节奏、龙头股的调整程度。在 3/9 发布的《主题投资的下半场决胜法 则》中，我们构建了主题投资的数据追踪体系。我们专注于 2 方面：1）4 种形态量化筛选，高赔率的主题机会；2）构建交易热度指标，把握热门主 题的见顶节奏，并最新增加了龙头股的调整程度观察。后续，我们将定期 更新主题投资数据体系。我们希望通过这种偏量化的方式，给予投资者更 客观的参考，把握住主题投资的行情节奏。 周期、制造多主题走出主升形态。本期走出见底、突破、主升、加速 的主题指数数量分别有 0、3、25、0 只。其中，3 只突破形态的主题指数， 行业为有色金属、公用事业。25 只主升形态的主题指数，行业主要为机械 设备、电子、军工。 人形机器人、Deepseek 主题交易热度有所回暖，对应龙头股收盘价高 于 MA60 的位置。我们对人形机器人、Deepseek 主题进行交易热度的监控， 并且观察龙头股的调整程度。其中，人形机器人的交易热度回升至 80%， 长盛轴承的收盘价高于 MA60 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of AI has transformed it from a mere tool into an emotional companion, raising questions about the authenticity of the emotional support it provides and the potential consequences for human interaction and emotional health [2][4][10]. Group 1: AI as an Emotional Companion - AI has evolved to fulfill roles traditionally held by humans, such as providing emotional support and companionship, especially during times of loneliness and distress [2][5]. - The ability of AI to offer emotional value is rooted in its training models and operational logic, utilizing vast datasets to simulate human-like interactions [6][7]. - AI's responses can often feel more understanding than those from real friends, leading to a false sense of emotional connection [6][7]. Group 2: Emotional Dependency and Its Consequences - The interaction with AI creates a high-response relationship, leading to a sense of being spoiled and potentially causing individuals to struggle with real-life interpersonal relationships [11]. - As AI takes over more cognitive tasks, there is a risk of humans becoming passive recipients of information and losing their critical thinking abilities [12]. - The rise of virtual connections through AI may lead to a decline in genuine human interactions, as individuals may prefer the conflict-free environment AI provides [13][14]. Group 3: The Reversal of Human and Tool Dynamics - AI, originally designed to empower humans, may lead to a reversal where humans become dependent on AI for emotional and cognitive functions, resulting in a decline in human agency [16]. - The increasing intelligence of AI contrasts with a potential decline in human capabilities, creating a widening gap between technology and human skills [16]. Group 4: Recommendations for Healthy Coexistence with AI - It is essential to redefine the perception of AI as a tool rather than a companion, emphasizing its role in enhancing human capabilities without replacing them [20]. - There is a need to focus on developing critical thinking, emotional regulation, and interpersonal skills to counteract the passive tendencies fostered by AI [21]. - Establishing clear boundaries regarding the use of emotional data by AI is crucial to prevent manipulation and dependency, ensuring that AI serves to promote human growth rather than replace it [23][24].

Domestic Economic Analysis - The Politburo meeting on July 30 emphasized the need to actively prepare for the "15th Five-Year Plan" and to complete the goals of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [9][10] - The manufacturing PMI for July decreased to 49.3%, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 50.1% [12][14] - Industrial profits in June showed a narrowing year-on-year decline of -4.3%, compared to -9.1% previously, with a slight decrease in inventory levels [19][21] - High-frequency indicators in transportation, such as subway passenger volume, showed a rebound, indicating some recovery in activity [26] International Economic Context - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for July were below expectations, with only 73,000 jobs added, significantly lower than the anticipated 110,000 [33] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.2%, reflecting a cooling labor market [33][34] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did not lower interest rates in July, with future decisions dependent on economic data [33] Industry Configuration Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment directions: breakthroughs in AI technology, valuation recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividends [3] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a cautious approach in the current market environment, which is showing signs of overheating [3] - Emphasis is placed on the need for structural monetary policy tools to support economic recovery and innovation in key industries [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of AI has transformed it from a mere tool into an "accompaniment" that provides emotional value, leading to a reflection on whether this algorithmic understanding and companionship is genuine or merely a calculated psychological feeding [2][3][4]. Group 1: Emotional Value of AI - AI is increasingly taking on roles of emotional companionship, providing comfort and understanding during times of loneliness, anxiety, or confusion [3][4]. - The ability of AI to provide emotional value relies on two key aspects: the training models and the operational platform logic [4][5]. - AI's emotional insights are enhanced through user interaction analysis, allowing it to deliver tailored emotional responses [5][6]. Group 2: Dependency and Passive Acceptance - The interaction with AI creates a high-response relationship, leading to a sense of being spoiled and potentially resulting in emotional addiction [9][10]. - AI's involvement in knowledge production and decision-making can lead to a passive acceptance of its capabilities, diminishing human critical thinking and creativity [11][12]. - As AI takes over more cognitive tasks, individuals may lose their motivation to think independently, leading to a decline in their problem-solving abilities [11][15]. Group 3: Social Degradation - The rise of virtual connections through AI can lead to a breakdown of real human relationships, as individuals may prefer the conflict-free interactions with AI over the complexities of human relationships [12][13]. - AI interactions create a one-sided projection of self, eliminating the necessary social friction that fosters self-reflection and personal growth [13][14]. - The reliance on AI for emotional support can obscure the importance of real human connections, leading to a loss of social skills and the ability to navigate interpersonal conflicts [12][14]. Group 4: Reversal of Tool and Humanity - AI, originally designed to empower humans, risks reversing the power dynamic, making humans dependent on AI for emotional and cognitive functions [15][16]. - The danger lies not in AI's capabilities but in the human tendency to become complacent and reliant on AI, leading to a decline in self-actualization and personal growth [15][16]. Group 5: Re-establishing Boundaries - There is a need to redefine the perception of AI as a tool rather than a source of wisdom, emphasizing its role in enhancing human capabilities without replacing them [17][18]. - It is crucial to maintain human cognitive functions and not outsource thinking to AI, especially in creative and critical areas [19][20]. - Establishing regulatory boundaries around the use of emotional data is essential to prevent manipulation and dependency on AI [22][23].

Core Insights - Bilibili (B站) has emerged as a key platform for young users to engage with AI technology, highlighted by the release of the "Top 30 AI Applications" list based on user interest and engagement metrics [1][2] - The platform has seen significant growth in AI-related content consumption, with over 140 million users engaging monthly and a year-on-year increase of over 100% in daily viewing time for AI content [2][3] Group 1: AI Applications and User Engagement - The "Top 30 AI Applications" list includes popular tools such as Deepseek, Quark, and Kimi, which have generated substantial user interest and creative content on the platform [1][2] - Bilibili's AI content ecosystem is primarily driven by young users, with over 80% of viewers being post-95s, indicating a trend towards a younger demographic engaging with AI [2][3] Group 2: Content Creators and Community Engagement - Prominent content creators (UP主) on Bilibili are instrumental in educating users about AI, with channels dedicated to sharing the latest AI technologies and tutorials [3] - The platform has established an AI-themed video podcast space to facilitate discussions among creators, media, and industry professionals, contributing to a vibrant community around AI content [4] Group 3: Technological Innovations and Future Prospects - Bilibili showcased innovative AI projects at the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference, including an AI-powered exam robot and a text-to-speech model (IndexTTS2) that excels in emotional voice synthesis [4][8] - The company aims to build a supportive ecosystem for AI creators, emphasizing the importance of reducing barriers to entry for new developers and enhancing content creation efficiency through AI technologies [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of "AI Psychiatry," a new field initiated by the Claude team at Anthropic, focusing on understanding AI's behavior, motivations, and situational awareness, which can lead to unexpected or erratic actions [1][2][12]. Group 1: AI Psychiatry Team and Recruitment - The Claude team has launched a specialized group for "AI Psychiatry," offering annual salaries ranging from $315,000 to $560,000, equivalent to over 2.2 million RMB, indicating the importance placed on this research area [6][7]. - The team aims to establish a solid theoretical foundation for understanding neural networks and ensuring their safety, akin to how biologists study the brain [8][9]. - The recruitment emphasizes the need for candidates to have research experience, familiarity with Python, and the ability to handle exploratory research uncertainties [10][12]. Group 2: Research Focus and Objectives - The primary focus of the "AI Psychiatry" group includes dissecting large models to understand their internal workings and identifying hidden behavioral patterns [13][15]. - The research will explore AI's "personas," motivations, and situational awareness, aiming to understand why AI behaves unexpectedly in certain contexts [12][14]. - The team will conduct experiments using smaller models to validate ideas before applying them to larger models, and they will develop analytical tools to explain model behaviors [12][14]. Group 3: Industry Reactions and Future Implications - The concept of "AI Psychiatry" has sparked positive reactions online, with many considering it a promising new area of AI development [19][20]. - However, there are some criticisms regarding the terminology used, particularly the term "psychiatry" [23]. - The article suggests that understanding AI's personality formation could lead to the design of more stable and consistent AI products [17][24]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Major tech companies like Google, OpenAI, and Meta are actively recruiting AI talent, indicating a competitive landscape for skilled professionals in the AI field [25][29]. - The demand for AI researchers is high, with companies willing to offer substantial salaries to attract individuals with significant contributions to the field [30][31].