Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, driven by President Trump's calls for significant rate cuts, which could impact the strength of the US dollar [2] - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have surged, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating a 68% probability, suggesting that continued pressure from Trump could lead to more liquidity easing, directly affecting the dollar's value [2] - The overnight reverse repo scale has dropped to $435 billion as of July 25, raising concerns about short-term liquidity and the potential for the Fed to halt its balance sheet reduction, which would increase dollar liquidity in the market [2] Group 2 - The Bloomberg Dollar Index is approaching a critical support level of 107.5 as of July 26, and a breach of this level could trigger accelerated programmatic selling [2] - The articles emphasize the importance of monitoring US Treasury yields, particularly the 2-year yield, as rising rate cut expectations could lower these yields, creating a compounded negative effect on the dollar [3] - The current SOFR rate stands at 5.32%, and any significant movements in this rate could signal tightening in the interbank funding market, potentially forcing the Fed to act sooner [3]

Q： 请问重阳投资， 如何看待美国减税法案草案 ？ A： 为兑现特朗普减税的政治承诺，5月12日美国众议院筹款委员会（House Ways & Means Committee）正式公布了特朗普减税法案的草案（即 The One, Big, Beautiful Bill），同日 能源和商务委员会也公布了削减医疗补助计划（Medicaid）支出的草案。目前草案已进入预算 协调流程，5月18日在众议院预算委员会通过，共和党正计划推动法案在阵亡将士纪念日（5月 26日）前通过众议院全体投票，以满足特朗普独立日前（7月4日）正式落地立法的要求。 若草案内容全部落实，美国财政赤字将再度大幅攀升。 减税草案的主要内容包括将特朗普第一任 期的税改法案（即Tax Cut and Jobs Act，TCJA）永久化，提高州和地方税抵扣额度，取消小费税、 加班税和汽车贷款税等，同时通过削减医疗补助计划、废除电动车和新能源税收抵扣等来削减开 支。根据Tax Foundation的动态估算，尽管包括1万亿美元的支出削减，该草案未来十年仍将在当前 美国2万亿赤字的基础上额外增加赤字3.3万亿美元。如果考虑到该草案前置减税措施却后置减支措 ...