国庆假期期间，受海外流动性宽松预期提振，有色金属全面飘红，铜价再创阶段新高。受外盘和相关品 种带动，叠加近期印尼严打非法采矿加剧供应担忧，节后首日国内沪锡大幅走高，主力合约收涨 2.99%，报287090元/吨，刷新半年高位。成交量虽然较节前有显著下滑，但持仓量大幅提升，主力 sn2511合约排名前20持仓龙虎榜上，多头合计加仓4303手，空头增仓3994手，多空双方势均力敌。 数据来源：文华财经 国泰期货席位加空583手，同时加多188手，净多单减少395手。 瑞达期货席位多空均有增持，加空475手，高于多单增加幅度，净空持仓增加231手。 整体来看，近期LME库存再度回落且0-3结构频繁变动，流动性担忧仍有隐患，叠加原料供应维持偏紧 格局，刺激锡价上涨。另一方面，印尼严厉打击非法采矿引发市场担忧情绪，不过，此次严打旨在加强 对本国锡产业管控，关停的非法矿点多为小型矿企，印尼主要的锡冶炼企业大多拥有正规的自有矿源或 稳定的合法供应渠道，因此其精锡的正式生产和出口预计不会受到严重冲击。10月初国内云锡将结束检 修恢复生产，大部分冶炼厂在假期内保持正常生产，同时缅甸矿运输也逐渐恢复，整体供应有望小幅增 加。需求 ...

黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 多晶硅自律会议召开，工业硅补涨 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 工业硅周报 2025 年 9 月 22 日 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 ⚫ 上周工业硅反弹，主因美联储如期降息释放流动性宽松预 期，8月工业企业利润增速边际回升，多晶硅自律会议再 度召开将进一步提涨价格推动工业硅启动补涨行情。供应 来看，新疆地区开工率升至69%，川滇地区丰水期产能释 放动能强劲，内蒙和甘肃产量收缩，供应端保持温和增长； 从需求侧来看，多 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024, and indicated two more cuts may occur this year, with one expected next year instead of the previously anticipated two to three [2] - Following the Fed's announcement, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Monetary Authority of Macao also reduced their base rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar index initially fell but then rebounded significantly after the Fed's decision, moving from 96.3 to 97.18, while the euro exchange rate strengthened from 1.191 to 1.179 [3] - U.S. Treasury yields for the 10-year note dropped by 5 basis points to around 4.00% before recovering to approximately 4.05% [5] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The decline in short-term rates alongside a slight increase in long-term rates suggests a steepening yield curve, reflecting market concerns about "stagnant economic growth but rising prices," which aligns with the Fed's current worries regarding employment data and inflation [7] - Despite the Fed's rate cut, the strengthening dollar has led to a decrease in gold prices, which had previously reached new highs, indicating a potential profit-taking phase among traders [8] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.57%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices fell by 0.33% and 0.10%, respectively [10] - Notable performances included Goldman Sachs, which rose by 1.11%, and Caterpillar, which increased by 2.27%, benefiting from the lower interest rates [10] Group 5: Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks, represented by the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, rose by 2.85%, with Alibaba and Baidu continuing their upward momentum, gaining 2.44% and 11.34%, respectively [12] - However, there are concerns about potential profit-taking as the market shifts focus from "expectations" to "realities," with significant recent gains in stocks like Baidu and Alibaba prompting caution [12][13] Group 6: Future Outlook - The market is entering a "verification period" where the focus will shift to whether companies can deliver solid earnings to support their stock prices, especially in light of the recent strong performance of Chinese tech stocks [13] - The Fed's rate cut has led to a complex scenario where the market must navigate between economic slowdown and inflation, indicating that future volatility will be driven more by economic data and corporate earnings rather than policy speculation [14][15]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Today, the stock market oscillated and declined with a significant increase in trading volume in both the stock and futures markets. After the Fed's interest rate cut was confirmed, the demand for profit - taking at high levels and short - hedging is expected to rise. The electronics, communication, and social service industries related to holidays showed relative resilience. The market has already priced in a 25BP interest rate cut in September and two cuts within the year, so today's stock market correction was expected. Given the large trading volume, there is a need to be vigilant about an enlarged correction. Attention should be paid to the trading volume and the support of the 20 - day moving average of the stock index. If the closing price falls below the 20 - day moving average, the downside space may open further. Additionally, the further development of Sino - US trade relations is a major short - term uncertainty [4] Group 3: Market Review Summary - Today, the stock index had a large - scale increase in volume, and the scale index weakened overall. For example, the CSI 300 index closed down 1.16%. The trading volume of the two markets rebounded to 7584.20 billion yuan. All stock index futures declined with increased volume [2] Group 4: Important Information Summary - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the TikTok issue, stating that it will never seek any agreement at the expense of principles, corporate interests, and international fairness and justice [3] Group 5: Strategy Recommendation - Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -1.35 | -1.45 | -1.00 | -1.19 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 22.0019 | 10.0595 | 23.6268 | 42.8973 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | 5.752 | 3.5836 | 7.2444 | 14.307 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 28.8603 | 11.4842 | 27.1127 | 40.5154 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | 1.4691 | 1.0071 | 1.9056 | 2.5806 | [5] Group 6: Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -1.15 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -1.06 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.22 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 31351.58 | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | 7584.20 | [6] Group 7: Other Data Summaries - Data on the ratio of margin trading volume to A - share trading volume, cross - variety strength, and index premium/discount rates are presented in graphical forms, showing trends over different time periods from 2023 - 2025 [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]

【基本面消息】 数据显示，9月17日上海黄金现货价格报价834.60元/克，相较于期货主力价格（835.08元/克）贴水0.48 元/克。 【黄金期货最新行情】 金瑞期货： | 9月17日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 835.08 | 0.36% | 164311 | 96007 | 上一个交易日贵金属价格普遍上涨，COMEX黄金期货涨0.23%报3727.5美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货跌 0.19%报42.88美元/盎司。降息在即，美元进一步走弱利好黄金。当前贵金属的驱动一方面来自流动性 宽松预期的发酵，8月非农数据不及预期，市场已经完全计入了9月开始降息以及年内降息3次的预期。 另一方面，美联储独立性、特朗普贸易政策前景以及地缘政治的不稳定导致市场不确定性增加，避险情 绪提升也使黄金受益。短期来看，黄金的利好已经基本充分交易。但就业下行，通胀上行，流动性宽松 的预期下，金银价格预计仍将会获得一定利好支撑。Comex黄金运行区间【3500，3800】美元/盎司， 沪金运行区间 ...

股指期货热点 宏观预期改善延续 ——基于近期股汇双强分析 王映(Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月12日 摘要：近期国内金融市场发生较大变化，伴随着股市接连创新高，美元兑人民币汇率走势也自8月底开启一轮 大幅升值。我们分析认为8月以来人民币大幅升值一定程度受A股持续上涨，带来的正反馈，使得人民币走势 脱离美元指数走势振幅扩大，股市亦受人民币升值带来的资金支撑以及情绪提振，一定程度超预期趋势向 上。股汇互相"成就"，更深层次背后，展现的是国内经济的相对优势以及流动性宽松预期升温。在国内经 济基本面维稳，美国经济基本面相对存在更多不确定扰动项，国内货币政策基调维持适度宽松，外部美联储 降息进一步提供宽松空间的背景之下，股市交易可继续维持多头思维。主要风险在于关税政策意外恶化，带 来国内经济预期明显转向。 1、股汇双强，走势双双显现"异常"。 近期国内金融市场发生较大变化。股市接连创新高，以沪深300指数为代表突破4500，在经济本面数据仍相对 平淡，政策未出现去年"924"类似的重磅加码情形的背景之下，股指走势整体突破去年前高，两市成交额最 高站上三万亿元。而汇率 ...

来源：洪言微语 大宗商品方面，COMEX黄金受美联储降息预期及地缘政治风险推动上涨3.52%收于3639.8美元/盎司， 并带动A股和港股贵金属板块领涨；ICE布油则因全球经济增长放缓预期小幅下跌2.68%收于65.67美元/ 桶。 A股市场本周出现本轮行情以来第一次较为持续的调整，高位科技股短期获利了结压力显现，科创板跌 幅靠前。全周来看，上证指数下跌1.18%，收于3812.51点；深证成指下跌0.83%；受新能源行情支撑， 创业板指逆势收涨2.35%；而因AI算力、光模块等前期涨幅较大板块出现回调，科创50指数大幅下跌 5.42%。 交投活跃度方面，全周A股成交额13.02万亿元，日均成交2.60万亿元，环比下降12.8%；两融余额较上 周减少约800亿元，至2.16万亿元，显示杠杆资金正在高位板块进行获利了结。不过创业板指成交额占 比提升至31.3%，反映资金仍向成长赛道集中。 本周全球股市呈现"科技股领涨、A股成长板块分化、港股南向资金推动估值修复"的格局。全球流动性 宽松预期成为影响风险偏好的核心逻辑，美联储9月降息25个基点的概率已达99.4%，叠加贵金属板块 受避险需求驱动大幅上涨，市场结构性 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks have significantly increased market expectations for a rate cut in September, reshaping the pricing logic of global risk assets, with cryptocurrencies acting as a sensitive "macro barometer" [1][3] Market Reaction - Following Powell's speech, Bitcoin initially surged above $117,000 but quickly retreated below $110,000, indicating a complex interaction between macro and micro market sentiments [3] - The long-term trajectory of the cryptocurrency market remains dependent on deeper macroeconomic factors, with persistent inflation potentially limiting the extent of rate cuts and thus weakening the upward momentum of risk assets [3] Fund Flows and Investment Trends - Recent data shows a significant outflow from cryptocurrency investment products, exceeding $1.4 billion, the highest weekly outflow since March, although there was a recovery post-Powell's remarks, particularly in Ethereum-related products [4] - Bitcoin's status as "digital gold" remains, but Ethereum is gaining traction due to its active ecosystem and higher volatility, making it a more attractive option under liquidity expansion expectations [4] Price Predictions - ZX Squared Capital's co-founder predicts Bitcoin's year-end target price to be between $125,000 and $150,000, indicating a potential upside of 15%-35%, while Ethereum's target is set at $6,000-$7,000 [5] - The early signs of a "altcoin season" are emerging, with a shift in focus towards small-cap tokens as liquidity expands [5] Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term (September-October), attention should be on the Federal Reserve's decision on September 17; a 25 basis point cut could lead Bitcoin to retest the $120,000 resistance level [6] - In the medium to long term, the stablecoin market is projected to grow tenfold over the next few years, indicating a maturation of the cryptocurrency market infrastructure and a potential decline in Bitcoin's dominance [6] Strategic Considerations - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy that aligns with macroeconomic trends (rate cut paths, inflation trends) and micro signals (fund flows, asset rotation) rather than simply chasing price movements [8] - XBIT's decentralized exchange platform offers a non-custodial model, allowing users to control their private keys and manage funds through smart contracts, enhancing security and facilitating cross-chain trading [8]

Group 1 - The market is currently influenced by expectations of liquidity easing, with high anticipation for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in September, leading to a strong performance in global stock markets [1] - Domestic stock markets are experiencing an upward trend due to structural interest rate reductions, such as subsidies for personal consumption loans, and policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, including "anti-involution" measures and birth subsidies [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached new highs, surpassing the 2021 peak, while the Shenzhen Component Index is in a recovery phase, indicating a strong market sentiment and increased investor confidence [2] Group 2 - The trading volume in the market has exceeded 2.7 trillion yuan, showing an increase compared to the previous week, with a significant number of stocks rising, particularly in the TMT sector [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the upper boundary of a weekly trading range, which has now turned from a resistance level to a support level, indicating a bullish trend [2] - There is a need to monitor for signs of volume stagnation as trading volume approaches 3 trillion yuan, which could indicate potential market corrections [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Maintain a relatively optimistic view of the convertible bond market in the second half of the year, due to the continuous imbalance between supply and demand and the "asset shortage" situation, the important role of convertible bonds in the asset portfolio, and the need to conduct high - low switching [1] - In the context of a slow - bull equity market, there are still opportunities for bank convertible bonds [1] - The top ten high - rating, medium - low - price convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are Hexing Convertible Bond, Guangda Convertible Bond, etc. [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Market Review 1.1. Equity Market Overall Rise, Most Industries Rise - From August 4th to 8th, the equity market rose overall, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 2.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.25%, the ChiNext Index up 0.49%, and the CSI 300 up 1.23%. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased by about 1121.60 billion yuan to 16748.23 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 6.28% [6][8] - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 25 industries closed up, with National Defense and Military Industry, Non - Ferrous Metals, etc. leading the gains [12] 1.2. Convertible Bond Market Overall Rise, Most Industries Fall - From August 4th to 8th, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.31%. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 4 industries closed up, with Automobile, Social Services, etc. leading the gains. The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 895.48 billion yuan, a significant increase of 72.55 billion yuan, a week - on - week change of 8.82% [15] - About 92.46% of convertible bond issues rose, and 51.72% of them had a gain of over 2% [15] - The overall market conversion premium rate rebounded, with an average daily conversion premium rate of 41.62%, an increase of 0.98 pct compared to last week [22] - 20 industries saw an expansion in the conversion premium rate, and 17 industries had an increase in conversion parity [28][33] 1.3. Stock - Bond Market Sentiment Comparison - From August 4th to 8th, the weekly weighted average and median of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were positive, and the underlying stocks had a larger weekly gain. The trading volume of the convertible bond market increased by 5.07% week - on - week, and that of the underlying stock market decreased by 6.84% week - on - week. The trading sentiment of the underlying stock market was better [34] 2. Outlook and Investment Strategy - Maintain the previous view, be relatively optimistic about the convertible bond market in the second half of the year. In the context of a slow - bull equity market, there are still opportunities for bank convertible bonds [1][38] - The top ten high - rating, medium - low - price convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are Hexing Convertible Bond, Guangda Convertible Bond, etc. [1]