2026年的A股在投资者的期待下迎来了"开门红"，且惊喜不断，为"十五五"开局献上一大贺礼。 1月5日，沪指重返4000点，1月9日早盘冲上4100点，创出十年新高4121.7点。截至1月8日，两融余额突 破2.62万亿元，再创历史新高，半导体、军工、有色金属领涨。 南开大学金融发展研究院院长田利辉在接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示，市场创新高是"流动性宽松 预期"与"强政策叙事"共同催化的结果。新年伊始，充裕的流动性与对"十五五"开局之年宏观政策的积 极憧憬形成共振，驱动了风险偏好快速升温，但这更多是估值和情绪的脉冲。 国信证券报告认为，随着市场基本面的修复由点至面扩散，配合居民资金进一步入市，A股牛市将在 2026年走向后半场。当前入市资金或主要来源于高净值人群，随着大部分居民风险偏好自低位逐渐修 复，2026年普通居民资金有望成为主力入市资金，借鉴历史看，全年增量资金预计达2万亿元。 再创新高 1月5日，沪指上涨1.38%，报收4023.42点，重返4000点；1月6日以4083.67点收盘，创十年新高。随后 在小幅调整后，1月9日早盘，沪指一路上扬最高飙至4121.7点。截至收盘，沪指收于4120.43 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, both gold and silver prices rose, hitting new all - time highs. Silver showed particularly strong performance, with a weekly increase of over 18% and a cumulative increase of over 170% this year. The price increase was supported by macro - level factors, fundamental factors, and changes in the price - spread structure [3]. - In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to remain strong, but there are signs of a "short squeeze" in the silver market, so caution is needed regarding the risk of a phased adjustment due to the rapid price increase, especially during the New Year's Day holiday in China this week. It is recommended that existing long positions be gradually closed for profit, and those not yet in the market should wait and see [5]. - In the long term, the underlying logic of the precious metal bull market remains solid. Factors such as the continuous rise in the US federal government debt, the Fed still in a rate - cut cycle, complex global geopolitical situations, and continued gold purchases by global central banks will support the upward movement of the gold price center [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情及基本面指标跟踪 (Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking) 3.1.1 Gold and Silver Prices and Gold - Silver Ratio - Gold prices rose steadily, with the London spot gold at $4532.505 per ounce, up 4.41% from the previous week. The Shanghai gold futures main contract was at 1016.30 yuan per gram, up 3.71% [4]. - Silver prices soared, with the London spot silver at $79.3290 per ounce, up 18.31% from the previous week. The Shanghai silver futures main contract was at 18319 yuan per kilogram, up 19.14% [4]. - The domestic and foreign gold - silver ratios dropped to near 53 and 57 respectively, reaching the lowest levels since 2013, indicating that silver is no longer undervalued compared to gold [3]. 3.1.2 Price - Spread between Futures and Spot - For gold, the basis (TD - futures) was - 6.17 yuan per gram, with a weekly change rate of 14.26%. The internal - external price difference was - 5.91 yuan per gram, with a weekly change rate of 70.32% [4]. - For silver, the basis (TD - futures) was 181 yuan per kilogram, with a weekly change rate of - 796.15%. The internal - external price difference was - 439 yuan per kilogram, with a weekly change rate of - 65.89% [4]. 3.1.3 ETF and CFTC Positions - Gold SPDR - ETF holdings increased by 18.59 tons to 1071.13 tons, a weekly increase of 1.77%. COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 10092 contracts to 233978 contracts, a weekly increase of 4.51% [4]. - Silver SLV - ETF holdings increased by 324 tons to 16391 tons, a weekly increase of 2.02%. COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions decreased by 8357 contracts to 36352 contracts, a weekly decrease of 18.69% [4]. 3.1.4 Inventory Data - SHFE gold inventory increased by 5.98 tons to 97.692 tons, a weekly increase of 6.52%. COMEX gold inventory increased by 5.76 tons to 1125.67 tons, a weekly increase of 0.51% [4]. - SHFE silver inventory decreased by 80.20 tons to 819 tons, a weekly decrease of 8.92%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 124.39 tons to 13988 tons, a weekly decrease of 0.88%. SGE silver inventory increased by 117.71 tons to 832 tons, a weekly increase of 16.48% [4]. 3.2主要宏观指标跟踪 (Tracking of Major Macroeconomic Indicators) 3.2.1 Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index was at 98.0341, down 0.69% from the previous week. The US dollar against the offshore RMB was at 7.0042, down 0.42% [4]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was at 3.4749%, down 0.06% from the previous week. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was at 4.1277%, down 0.23% [4]. 3.2.2 Economic Data - The US third - quarter GDP growth was strong, and the consumer confidence index rebounded for the first time in five months [61]. - The US November non - farm payrolls were higher than expected, and the unemployment rate rebounded. Job vacancies increased, and the labor participation rate increased. Wage growth slowed down both month - on - month and year - on - year [66]. - Inflation in the US was relatively controllable. Core commodity inflation rebounded, while core service inflation declined. Consumer inflation expectations rose significantly [68][71]. 3.2.3 Eurozone Economic Data - The Eurozone GDP bottomed out and rebounded. The manufacturing and service PMIs in the Eurozone declined, and inflation data in the Eurozone and the UK were also presented [77][78]. 3.2.4 Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for 13 consecutive months. As of the end of November, China's gold reserves reached 74.12 million ounces (about 2305.39 tons), an increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons) from the previous month [85]. - Global central banks still maintained net gold purchases. In the first three quarters of 2025, global central banks and other institutions net - purchased about 633.6 tons of gold, a year - on - year decrease of about 12.1%. However, the gold - purchasing demand is expected to remain strong in the future [85].

格隆汇12月29日｜南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹分析指出，此轮金价大涨的核心驱动力来 自多重因素的共振，包括美联储重启降息和技术性扩表带来的流动性宽松预期、贸易关税政策加剧的全 球去美元化趋势，以及美国财政可持续性削弱美元地位。在这些宏观背景下，投资者的强劲需求已取代 央行购金，成为推升金价的主导力量。白银市场则出现了更为结构性的供需失衡。夏莹莹进一步分析， 全球白银库存持续处于低位，市场呈现"结构性挤兑"现象，加上太阳能光伏、电子和医疗领域的刚性工 业需求不断扩张，导致现货溢价飙升。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Precious metal prices showed a differentiation. Shanghai gold futures contracts fluctuated slightly at high levels, while Shanghai silver futures contracts rose by over 4% overnight, hitting a new record high. In the short - term, the risk of high - level volatility in silver increased, but in the quarterly level, the long logic of gold and silver remained smooth. Gold had a relatively high price safety margin as its historical volatility was at the end - of - year low [1]. - The core factors driving the upward movement of gold prices, such as geopolitical factors, the weakening of the US dollar, continuous central bank gold purchases, and the expectation of US interest rate cuts in the next year, remained unchanged. The expectation of loose liquidity was the core logic driving gold up in the quarterly level. The period from the nomination to the assumption of office of the new Fed chair was considered the most favorable time for trading liquidity expectations and Fed independence risks. Geopolitical tensions led to active safe - haven demand [6]. - In the short - term, silver prices might face increased volatility after a continuous sharp rise. In the long - term, the core drivers of silver price increases remained unchanged, and the upward elasticity of silver was expected to be further released in 2026. The silver spot structural shortage problem might still recur in the first quarter. The gold - silver ratio was expected to decline [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - On December 25, the offshore RMB against the US dollar broke through the 7.0 mark, reaching 6.9985 at the highest, the first time since September 2024. The offshore RMB had appreciated by 4.6% against the US dollar this year, and the on - shore RMB was approaching the 7 mark, with an annual appreciation of 4% [2]. - On December 25, the Ukrainian Air Force launched a missile attack on a Russian refinery in Rostov Oblast, which was one of the largest oil product suppliers in southern Russia with a storage tank capacity of over 210,000 cubic meters [2]. - A US official said on December 24 that the White House had ordered the US military to focus on the "blockade" of Venezuelan oil for at least the next two months, preferring economic pressure over military action [2]. - On December 24, Ukrainian President Zelensky announced a 20 - point draft of the latest Russia - Ukraine "peace plan", but the core territorial issues remained unresolved [2]. - On December 25, Japanese Prime Minister Kaoi Sanae announced a 2026 fiscal year budget of 122.3 trillion yen (about 5.5 trillion RMB), a 6.3% increase from 2025, the highest in Japanese history. The government planned to issue about 29.6 trillion yen in new bonds to support this large - scale expenditure [3]. - Guotou Silver LOF announced that the fund would be suspended from trading from the opening on December 26, 2025, to 10:30 and resume trading at 10:30. If the premium rate of the secondary market trading price did not decline effectively, the fund had the right to apply for temporary suspension or extended suspension to warn the market [3]. 3.2 Price Logic - Gold: After hitting a record high, Shanghai gold futures adjusted slightly, possibly due to some traders taking profits before the New Year. The core factors driving gold prices up remained, and the expectation of loose liquidity was the main driver in the quarterly level. The period around the Fed chair nomination was favorable for related trading. Geopolitical tensions maintained active safe - haven demand [6]. - Silver: Shanghai silver futures rose by over 4% overnight, hitting a new record high. In the short - term, there was a risk of increased volatility, and investors needed to manage their positions. In the long - term, the core drivers of price increases remained unchanged, and in 2026, silver was expected to have greater upward elasticity and the gold - silver ratio might decline. The silver spot structural shortage problem might still occur in the first quarter [7]. 3.3 Outlook - In the short - term, the price range of London gold was expected to be between 4200 and 4550 US dollars per ounce, and that of London silver between 60 and 75 US dollars per ounce [8]. 3.4 Commodity Index - On December 25, 2025, the comprehensive commodity index was 2327.86, down 0.14%; the commodity 20 index was 2669.31, down 0.12%; the industrial products index was 2254.18, down 0.17% [49]. - The precious metals index was 3927.63 on December 25, 2025, with a daily decline of 0.77%, a 5 - day increase of 6.01%, a one - month increase of 16.51%, and a year - to - date increase of 77.53% [51].

研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 25 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2601 | 23185 | 23190 | 23285 | 23005 | 200 | 0.87 | 29137 | -5701 | | 沪锌 | 2602 | ...

有分析人士指出，本次贵金属集体且远超预期的普涨，背后是流动性宽松预期、地缘风险不稳、产业供 需结构性矛盾，三者共振所致。需注意的是，黄金以外的贵金属，有较强工业属性，产业供需波动会过 度放大市场情绪，火箭式行情也意味着投机情绪浓厚，相关投资需额外注意。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅% ↑ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600459 | 贵研铂业 | 1 | -5.76 | 147亿 | 42.79 | | 601212 | 日银有色 | 1 | -5.26 | 413亿 | 100.72 | | 000603 | 盛达资源 | 1 | -4.62 | 204亿 | 147.97 | | 000688 | 国城矿业 | | -4.56 | 305亿 | 116.40 | | 601061 | 中信金属 | | -3.70 | 677亿 | 94.45 | | 002716 | 湖南日银 | | -3.56 | 184亿 | 92.04 | | 000506 | 招等童等 | | -3.09 | 125亿 | 239.29 ...

在市场化因素背后，黄金做多的"买手"被越来越多人关注——央行购金。中信建投证券认为，央行购金 行为可以为黄金价格中枢提供支撑，而动机包括商业化头寸管理、防备极端情形和应对货币秩序重塑 等： 一是，与普通黄金持有者一样，央行同样也需要管理资产投资，在黄金价格波动周期中切换资产配置， 例如美债和黄金之间的比例调整，从而达到资产收益最优。 12月24日，伦敦现货黄金价格历史首次突破每盎司4500美元，凌厉的涨势再次夺得市场的目光。在短期 波动与长期机遇交织下，这一备受全球资本青睐的资产，将如何演绎后续行情？请看机构最新研判。 黄金近期呈现出"震荡抬升"的中期运行特征，核心源于宏观环境、政策预期与资金配置的三重逻辑支 撑。 第一，美国宏观经济与就业数据弱化，强化避险与降息预期。美国经济呈现放缓迹象，就业与通胀数据 整体显示经济动能放缓，实际利率小幅下行，市场对美国货币政策进一步转紧的担忧明显下降。尽管短 期内降息节奏仍存在不确定性，但"难以再度明显收紧"的政策环境，为黄金价格提供了重要的底部支 撑。同时，由于部分经济数据受到统计扰动与政府停摆等因素影响，其参考价值下降，政策判断的不确 定性反而强化了黄金的避险与对冲属 ...

12月24日，伦敦现货黄金价格历史首次突破每盎司4500美元，凌厉的涨势再次夺得市场的目光。在短期 波动与长期机遇交织下，这一备受全球资本青睐的资产，将如何演绎后续行情？请看机构最新研判。 黄金近期呈现出"震荡抬升"的中期运行特征，核心源于宏观环境、政策预期与资金配置的三重逻辑支 撑。 第一，美国宏观经济与就业数据弱化，强化避险与降息预期。美国经济呈现放缓迹象，就业与通胀数据 整体显示经济动能放缓，实际利率小幅下行，市场对美国货币政策进一步转紧的担忧明显下降。尽管短 期内降息节奏仍存在不确定性，但"难以再度明显收紧"的政策环境，为黄金价格提供了重要的底部支 撑。同时，由于部分经济数据受到统计扰动与政府停摆等因素影响，其参考价值下降，政策判断的不确 定性反而强化了黄金的避险与对冲属性，使其在高位仍能维持相对稳健的表现。 一是，与普通黄金持有者一样，央行同样也需要管理资产投资，在黄金价格波动周期中切换资产配置， 例如美债和黄金之间的比例调整，从而达到资产收益最优。 二是，例如金融制裁等极端情形之下，一国政府或面临支付和交易困境，若持有黄金，可在国际市场上 通过黄金而展开特定交易，黄金作为最不具备争议的"共时性货币 ...

?现货钯金突破1900美元/盎司，最高至1960美元，为2022年年底以来首次。 尽管不同品类具体上涨逻辑各有差异，但有分析人士指出，本次贵金属集体且远超预期的普涨，背后是 流动性宽松预期、地缘风险不稳、产业供需结构性矛盾，三者共振所致。需注意的是，黄金以外的贵金 属，有较强工业属性，产业供需波动会过度放大市场情绪，火箭式行情也意味着投机情绪浓厚，相关投 资需额外注意。 格隆汇12月24日｜贵金属迎来高光时刻，集体暴走： ?现货黄金历史上首次突破4500美元/盎司，最高已涨至4525美元，年内累涨超70%，有望创下自1979年 以来最佳年度表现。(地缘政治以及美联储降息预期推动) ?现货白银历史上首次突破70美元/盎司，最高已涨至72美元，年内累涨超150%。(白银市场已连续五年 处于供应短缺状态，而工业需求持续增长，这是支撑价格的基本面现实) ?现货铂金历史上首次突破2300美元/盎司，年内累涨超150%，为1987年开始汇编相关数据以来的最大 年度涨幅。(全球供应紧张) （责任编辑：宋政 HN002） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 ...

报告导读： 中观景气延续分化，科技硬件继续涨价，新兴科技带动金属需求，叠加宽松预 期升温，有色价格上涨；内需方面，服务消费景气边际改善，地产耐用品仍承压。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 科技有色景气延续，服务消费需求提升；报告日期：2025.12.23 报告作者： 方奕（分析师），登记编号：S0880520120005 陶前陈（研究助理），登记编号：S0880125070014 张逸飞（分析师），登记编号：S0880524080008 重要提醒 科技有色景气延续，服务消费需求提升。 上周（ 12.15-12.21 ）中观景气表现分化，值得关注： 1 ）全球 AI 基建持续带动电子产业链需求提升，高端存储 器价格显著上涨，存储赛道景气延续偏强；流动性宽松预期升温，叠加新兴科技对金属材料需求提升，国际金属价格显著上涨。 2 ）服务消费景气边际改 善，上海迪士尼拥挤度和海南旅游价格指数环比提升；奶粉价格增速继续提升，茅台批价延续小幅上涨。中央经济工作会议提出"深入实施提振消费专项行 动"，展望 2026 ，消费在供给端和需求端的政策空间存在超预期可能。 3 ）传统内需景气偏弱，地产建 ...