Group 1 - The market is currently influenced by expectations of liquidity easing, with high anticipation for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in September, leading to a strong performance in global stock markets [1] - Domestic stock markets are experiencing an upward trend due to structural interest rate reductions, such as subsidies for personal consumption loans, and policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, including "anti-involution" measures and birth subsidies [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached new highs, surpassing the 2021 peak, while the Shenzhen Component Index is in a recovery phase, indicating a strong market sentiment and increased investor confidence [2] Group 2 - The trading volume in the market has exceeded 2.7 trillion yuan, showing an increase compared to the previous week, with a significant number of stocks rising, particularly in the TMT sector [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the upper boundary of a weekly trading range, which has now turned from a resistance level to a support level, indicating a bullish trend [2] - There is a need to monitor for signs of volume stagnation as trading volume approaches 3 trillion yuan, which could indicate potential market corrections [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Maintain a relatively optimistic view of the convertible bond market in the second half of the year, due to the continuous imbalance between supply and demand and the "asset shortage" situation, the important role of convertible bonds in the asset portfolio, and the need to conduct high - low switching [1] - In the context of a slow - bull equity market, there are still opportunities for bank convertible bonds [1] - The top ten high - rating, medium - low - price convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are Hexing Convertible Bond, Guangda Convertible Bond, etc. [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Market Review 1.1. Equity Market Overall Rise, Most Industries Rise - From August 4th to 8th, the equity market rose overall, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 2.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.25%, the ChiNext Index up 0.49%, and the CSI 300 up 1.23%. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased by about 1121.60 billion yuan to 16748.23 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 6.28% [6][8] - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 25 industries closed up, with National Defense and Military Industry, Non - Ferrous Metals, etc. leading the gains [12] 1.2. Convertible Bond Market Overall Rise, Most Industries Fall - From August 4th to 8th, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.31%. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 4 industries closed up, with Automobile, Social Services, etc. leading the gains. The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 895.48 billion yuan, a significant increase of 72.55 billion yuan, a week - on - week change of 8.82% [15] - About 92.46% of convertible bond issues rose, and 51.72% of them had a gain of over 2% [15] - The overall market conversion premium rate rebounded, with an average daily conversion premium rate of 41.62%, an increase of 0.98 pct compared to last week [22] - 20 industries saw an expansion in the conversion premium rate, and 17 industries had an increase in conversion parity [28][33] 1.3. Stock - Bond Market Sentiment Comparison - From August 4th to 8th, the weekly weighted average and median of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were positive, and the underlying stocks had a larger weekly gain. The trading volume of the convertible bond market increased by 5.07% week - on - week, and that of the underlying stock market decreased by 6.84% week - on - week. The trading sentiment of the underlying stock market was better [34] 2. Outlook and Investment Strategy - Maintain the previous view, be relatively optimistic about the convertible bond market in the second half of the year. In the context of a slow - bull equity market, there are still opportunities for bank convertible bonds [1][38] - The top ten high - rating, medium - low - price convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are Hexing Convertible Bond, Guangda Convertible Bond, etc. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - A - share market is strong with increased trading volume, and it is likely to rise in the short - term without more macro - negative factors [15]. - Gold is expected to continue its oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the progress of US additional tariffs [13]. - The US dollar is expected to maintain short - term oscillations [19]. - The economic downward pressure on the US stock index futures needs more data for verification, and attention should be paid to the callback risk at the current level [23]. - The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the rhythm of its strengthening is relatively tortuous, so the long - position rhythm should be carefully grasped [25]. - The internal strength and external weakness of soybean meal remain unchanged, and its operating center is expected to steadily rise [27]. - The price of edible oils is expected to continue to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [30]. - The price of thermal coal is expected to remain firm in the short - term, but its continuous rebound is difficult [31]. - The price of iron ore is expected to oscillate [32]. - The market speculation sentiment of coking coal and coke is strong in the short - term, and the impact on the actual fundamentals depends on subsequent policies [35]. - The short - term reverse spread structure of live pigs may continue, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 1 and 9 - 5 reverse spread opportunities [37]. - The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the operating range of 5500/5600 - 5900 yuan/ton [42]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside space is limited [45]. - For lead, it is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips and manage positions well; for arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see [48]. - For zinc, it is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, hold low - position speculative long positions in the short - term and manage positions well; pay attention to medium - term positive spread opportunities [51]. - For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to wait and see before the risk event is settled, and stop profit on the 9 - 11 reverse spread [54]. - For copper, it is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and pay attention to the internal - external reverse spread strategy [58]. - For nickel, it is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities on rallies [62]. - For liquefied petroleum gas, the market inflection point has not arrived, and attention should be paid to US policy changes [65]. - For crude oil, attention should be paid to the impact of US policies towards Russia on the market [68]. - For caustic soda, the downward space is limited [71]. - For pulp, the futures price is expected to decline following the commodity market [72]. - For PVC, the market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [73]. - For urea, the futures price is expected to oscillate [75]. - For styrene, it is recommended to pay attention to the profit - taking opportunity of the position to narrow the styrene - pure benzene spread [77]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury auctioned $42 billion worth of 10 - year Treasury bonds, with a winning bid rate of 4.255% and a bid - to - cover ratio of 2.35 [11]. - Trump plans to impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors and more secondary sanctions on Russia. Gold prices oscillated and declined, and the market is in a certain risk - aversion sentiment [12]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the progress of US additional tariffs, and gold will continue to oscillate [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - South Korea will implement a temporary visa - free policy for Chinese group tourists from September 29, 2025, to June next year [14]. - The margin trading balance has risen back above 2 trillion yuan. The A - share market is strong, and it is likely to rise in the short - term without more macro - negative factors [15]. - Investment suggestion: Allocate various stock indices evenly [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump plans to impose about 100% tariffs on chips [17]. - Fed Governor Lisa Cook believes that the July employment report may indicate an inflection point in the US economy [18]. - Trump imposes an additional 25% tariff on India. The pressure on Russia to cease fire is increasing, but the actual effect is expected to be limited, and the US dollar will oscillate in the short - term [19]. - Investment suggestion: The US dollar will maintain short - term oscillations [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - There are ongoing differences in the US - Japan trade agreement, and there are new variables in tariffs, but companies investing in the US are exempted [20]. - Trump plans to impose 100% tariffs on chip products, but companies that transfer production to the US will be exempted. Apple CEO Cook and Trump announced a new $100 billion investment plan [21]. - Trump imposes an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods. The overall tariff level remains around 18%, and the market risk appetite has recovered [22]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the callback risk at the current level [23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 138.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on August 6, with a net withdrawal of 170.5 billion yuan [24]. - The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the rhythm of its strengthening is relatively tortuous [24]. - Investment suggestion: Carefully grasp the long - position rhythm [25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil exported 12.257 million tons of soybeans in July, with an average daily export volume of 533,000 tons, a 9% increase compared to July last year [26]. - The supply - demand situation has little change. The CBOT soybean futures continue to oscillate weakly. The domestic import cost of soybeans supports the soybean meal futures price [26]. - Investment suggestion: The internal strength and external weakness remain unchanged, and the operating center of soybean meal is expected to rise [27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production in July increased by 9.01% month - on - month to 1.84 million tons, while the production from August 1 - 5 decreased by 17.27% month - on - month [28][30]. - The edible oil market oscillated strongly, with soybean oil leading the rise. The palm oil production in August may be affected by rainfall, and the market is more inclined to long soybean oil [30]. - Investment suggestion: The price of edible oils is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [30]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - On August 6, the price of thermal coal in the northern port market was strong. The over - production inspection continues, and the coal price is expected to remain firm in the short - term, but the continuous rebound is difficult [31]. - Investment suggestion: The over - production inspection from August to September may lead to a 2 - 3% decline in quarterly coal production, and the coal price is supported but difficult to rebound continuously [31]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - ArcelorMittal Mexico temporarily shut down its blast furnace production due to equipment failures [32]. - The iron ore price oscillated. Pay attention to the impact of the military parade production restrictions in mid - August, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate [32]. - Investment suggestion: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate [32]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Mongolia's ETT Company held an online auction for coking coal, and all 32,000 tons of the 1/3 coking raw coal on offer failed to be sold [34]. - The coking coal futures price rose sharply, mainly due to supply - side news. The market speculation sentiment is strong in the short - term, and the impact on the actual fundamentals depends on subsequent policies [35]. - Investment suggestion: The market speculation sentiment is strong in the short - term, and the impact on the actual fundamentals depends on subsequent policies [35]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - Shennong Group sold 174,700 pigs in July, with a sales revenue of 327 million yuan. Dabeinong sold 593,900 pigs in July, with a sales revenue of 984 million yuan [36][37]. - Group farms face the need to reduce the weight of pigs. The market's selling pressure remains unchanged, and the short - term reverse spread structure may continue [37]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the 9 - 1 and 9 - 5 reverse spread opportunities [37]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India's sugarcane planting area as of August 1 reached 5.731 million hectares, an increase of about 164,000 hectares compared to the same period last year [39]. - Yunnan's sugar sales rate as of the end of July was 80.68%, and Guangxi's was 85.01%. The market pricing has shifted to processed sugar [40][42]. - Investment suggestion: The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the operating range of 5500/5600 - 5900 yuan/ton [42]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The retail sales of passenger cars in China from July 1 - 31 were 1.834 million units, a 7% increase compared to July last year [43]. - In late July, the average daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises decreased by 7.4% month - on - month. Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside space is limited [45]. - Investment suggestion: Adopt an oscillating trading strategy and be cautious with light positions [46]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On August 5, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $41.92 per ton, and Nyrstar received A$135 million in support from the Australian government [47]. - The Shanghai lead futures rose slightly. The short - term bottom is further confirmed, but attention should be paid to the risk of the weak fundamentals [48]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips and manage positions well; wait and see for arbitrage [48]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On August 5, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $13.16 per ton, and Nyrstar received A$135 million in support from the Australian government [49][50]. - The Shanghai zinc futures rebounded and oscillated. The LME inventory continued to decline, while the domestic social inventory increased. The market is expected to oscillate [50]. - Investment suggestion: Wait and see on the long - short side, hold low - position speculative long positions in the short - term and manage positions well; pay attention to medium - term positive spread opportunities [51]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - China's Salt Lake's 20,000 - ton - per - year lithium carbonate project was officially put into production and sales [52]. - Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China increased in July. The demand is growing, and the supply is uncertain. The futures price may be affected by news this week [53]. - Investment suggestion: Wait and see before the risk event is settled, and stop profit on the 9 - 11 reverse spread [54]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - BHP and Lundin Mining plan to apply for investment incentives in Argentina for their Vicuna copper project [55]. - An Indonesian smelter's maintenance will affect the electrolytic copper output by about 20,000 tons [56]. - FireFly Metals' Green Bay copper - gold project in Canada has strong development potential [57]. - The copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the internal - external reverse spread strategy [58]. - Investment suggestion: Wait and see on the long - short side and pay attention to the internal - external reverse spread strategy [58]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Ronghui International plans to acquire 60% of the equity of an Indonesian nickel mining company for $9.9 million [59]. - The LME nickel inventory increased, and the SHFE nickel warrant decreased. The nickel price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities on rallies [61][62]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities on rallies [62]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle - East frozen LPG decreased for propane and increased for butane on August 6 [63]. - The US C3 inventory increased in the week ending August 1. The Panama Canal's passage situation has attracted market attention [64]. - Investment suggestion: The market inflection point has not arrived, and attention should be paid to US policy changes [65]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US announced additional tariffs on India due to its purchase of Russian energy [66]. - The EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased in the week ending August 1. The oil price turned from rising to falling [67]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the impact of US policies towards Russia on the market [68]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong remained stable on August 6, with the supply increasing slightly and the demand being moderate [69]. - The caustic soda futures price is expected to decline, but the downward space is limited [71]. - Investment suggestion: The downward space is limited [71]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The imported wood pulp spot market was stable with only slight increases on August 6 [72]. - The pulp futures price is expected to decline following the commodity market [72]. - Investment suggestion: The futures price is expected to decline following the commodity market [72]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price increased on August 6. The futures price oscillated strongly, but the spot market trading was light [73]. - The PVC market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [73]. - Investment suggestion: The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [73]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - China's urea enterprise inventory decreased by 3.24% week - on - week to 887,600 tons on August 6 [74]. - The urea futures price is expected to oscillate [75]. - Investment suggestion: The futures price is expected to oscillate [75]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of pure benzene at East China ports decreased by 10,000 tons to 152,000 tons on August 6 compared to July 30 [76]. - The styrene - pure benzene spread is recommended to be narrowed, and attention should be paid to the profit - taking opportunity [77]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the profit - taking opportunity of the position to narrow the styrene - pure benzene spread [77].

Group 1 - The market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.2% while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.28% [1] - Military stocks experienced a significant surge, indicating that the movement is not merely a defensive strategy but driven by underlying factors [1][3] - The trading volume decreased to 932.3 billion, down by 75.7 billion from the previous day, suggesting a strategic maneuver by major players [3] Group 2 - The military sector's rally is attributed to two main factors: a substantial increase in orders and ongoing asset restructuring [3] - A report indicated that the procurement volume for hypersonic missile components has doubled year-on-year, with a notable contract worth 370 million as an initial indicator [3] - Central enterprise restructuring is imminent, with several companies in the AVIC group expected to suspend trading, hinting at accelerated military asset securitization [3] Group 3 - The rise in gold stocks, such as a 4.2% increase in Chifeng Gold, correlates with a 75% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [3] - The gaming sector is also showing signs of activity, suggesting potential policy relaxation regarding game approvals, as indicated by recent developments in the approval process for new games [3] Group 4 - The innovative pharmaceutical sector faced a sharp decline due to new pricing regulations implemented on August 8, which could lead to price cuts exceeding 50% for heart stents [4] - Institutions are preemptively reducing their positions in response to these regulatory changes, although there are indications that some leading companies may be undervalued [4] Group 5 - Key signals for the afternoon trading session include monitoring military stocks for increased order volumes, observing brokerage activity for potential market shifts, and identifying opportunities in the innovative pharmaceutical sector at historical low price-to-earnings ratios [5] - The current market environment suggests that policy-driven trading is becoming more significant than performance-based trading, with military stock movements serving as an initial indicator of broader market trends [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, driven by President Trump's calls for significant rate cuts, which could impact the strength of the US dollar [2] - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have surged, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating a 68% probability, suggesting that continued pressure from Trump could lead to more liquidity easing, directly affecting the dollar's value [2] - The overnight reverse repo scale has dropped to $435 billion as of July 25, raising concerns about short-term liquidity and the potential for the Fed to halt its balance sheet reduction, which would increase dollar liquidity in the market [2] Group 2 - The Bloomberg Dollar Index is approaching a critical support level of 107.5 as of July 26, and a breach of this level could trigger accelerated programmatic selling [2] - The articles emphasize the importance of monitoring US Treasury yields, particularly the 2-year yield, as rising rate cut expectations could lower these yields, creating a compounded negative effect on the dollar [3] - The current SOFR rate stands at 5.32%, and any significant movements in this rate could signal tightening in the interbank funding market, potentially forcing the Fed to act sooner [3]

Core Viewpoint - The bond futures market has experienced a decline since late June, influenced by factors such as tightening liquidity, rising risk appetite, and increased bond supply. However, as the fundamentals remain weak and liquidity is expected to be loose, the bond market may gradually strengthen in July [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bond futures market has seen a pullback due to a tightening of the funding environment, with interbank market rates rising significantly, particularly DR007 which increased from around 1.5% to over 2%, marking a new high in over a month [1]. - The A-share market's continuous rise has created a "see-saw effect" with the bond market, as major indices reached yearly highs, leading to a shift of funds from the bond market to the stock market, particularly affecting long-term government bond futures [1]. - The issuance of bonds surged in June, with local government special bonds and ultra-long-term treasury bonds contributing to supply shocks in the bond market. The net financing of local government special bonds reached 529.2 billion yuan in the last week of June, a record high for the year [1]. Group 2: Future Expectations - Analysts expect that as the basic economic pressures increase and liquidity remains loose, the bond market is likely to strengthen in July. The anticipated decline in domestic demand and the weakening momentum of enterprises in the third quarter will further transmit pressure to the economy [2]. - The central bank's recent monetary policy meeting indicated a shift towards a more flexible approach to policy implementation, suggesting that the expectation of loose liquidity will gradually rise, which is favorable for the bond market [2]. - Key areas to monitor in July include changes in monetary policy and market liquidity, the impact of fiscal policy and bond supply, and economic data and expectations [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for government bonds is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is expected to perform stronger next week as PMI data is predicted to weaken marginally and liquidity at the beginning of the quarter is expected to loosen, with institutional willingness turning more active. However, the bullish trend of the bond market may not be smooth, as there is a lack of substantial incremental positive factors, and disturbances such as a strong stock market may occur from time to time [2][14] - Entering Q3, the pressure on the fundamental situation will increase, and the expectation of loose liquidity is difficult to be falsified. It is expected that the bond market will gradually strengthen. But the pace of the bond market's strengthening may be bumpy due to factors such as the bond market's full awareness of the fundamental environment, high bond market valuations, uncertainty about the implementation of loose policies by the central bank, and the interference of the stock market [15] - It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of steepening the yield curve, as the short - end varieties may still outperform the long - end ones [16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From June 23 - 29, government bond futures adjusted slightly, and the yield curve steepened. Various factors such as marginal tightening of funds, strong stock market performance, and institutional profit - taking intentions affected the daily performance of government bond futures. As of June 27, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bond futures were 102.546, 102.265, 109.070, and 120.940 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.020, +0.010, - 0.070, and - 0.320 yuan compared to last weekend [13] 3.1.2 Next Week's View - The bond market is expected to be stronger than this week, but the bullish trend may not be smooth. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of steepening the yield curve, and also suggests strategies such as long - position holding, mid - line long - position layout on dips, and paying attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in government bond futures [2][14][16] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 177 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 8676.40 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 7806.52 billion yuan. The net financing amount of local government bonds increased, while that of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [22] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Government bond yields showed a divergent trend. As of June 27, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bonds were 1.35%, 1.51%, 1.65%, and 1.85% respectively, with changes of - 1.50, +0.32, +0.46, and +1.05 bp compared to last weekend. The spreads of 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y all widened [28] 3.3 Government Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Government bond futures adjusted slightly, and the yield curve steepened. As of June 27, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bond futures changed compared to last weekend. The trading volumes and open interests of different - maturity government bond futures also had corresponding changes [37][40] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - Positive arbitrage opportunities were not obvious this week. The funds were generally balanced and loose, the futures basis generally fluctuated within a narrow range, and the IRR of the CTD bonds of each main contract was around 1.8%. There were relatively few short - term IRR strategies [44] 3.3.3 Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads - As of June 27, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bond futures contracts 2509 - 2512 had corresponding changes compared to last weekend [47] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 12672 billion yuan. As of June 27, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week increased compared to last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, and the overnight proportion was slightly lower than the previous week [53][56][58] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened, and the yield of 10Y US Treasury bonds declined. As of June 27, the US dollar index fell 1.52% to 97.2612 compared to last weekend, and the yield of 10Y US Treasury bonds dropped 9BP to 4.29%. The Sino - US 10Y Treasury bond yield spread was inverted by 264.5BP. The easing of the Middle East conflict and the divergence of Fed officials' statements affected the market [64] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices showed mixed performance, and agricultural product prices generally declined. As of June 27, the South China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index changed compared to last weekend, and the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits also had corresponding changes [68] 3.7 Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to take a bullish approach. Specific strategies include continuing to hold long positions, considering mid - line long - position layout on dips, moderately paying attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in government bond futures, and continuing to hold the strategy of steepening the yield curve (such as the 2TS - T strategy) [17][18][19]