成文日期:20260204 报告周期:日报 员：杜宇（从业资格号：F3075043; 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0017815) 1期货市场 2026年2月4日,上海期货交易所镍期货主力合约(NI.SHF) 呈现强势上涨走势。当目开盘价为 13.54 万元/吨,盘中最高价达到 13.777 万元/吨,最低价下探至 13.45 万元/吨,最终以 13.768 万元 /吨收盘,较前一交易日上涨 3.78%。全天成交 481,566 手，持仓量 为99,453 手。 2 现货市场基差分析 硫酸镍市场表现活跃, 2 月 4 日电池级硫酸镍价格报 32,850 元/ 吨,较上一交易目持平,但近二十个交易日累计上涨 12.69%;电镀 级硫酸镍价格报 32.750元/吨,同样持平,近二十个交易日累计上涨 6.5%。硫酸镍价格的持续上涨反映出新能源电池产业链对镍需求的 強劲支撑。 3 市场动态 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线: 4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 1.供应端扰动：高品质银紧缺,叠加美元下跌提振及全球关键矿产 储备计划升温, ...

新华财经北京2月2日电（吴郑思）继上周五（1月30日）史诗级下跌之后，周一（2月2日）早盘，贵金属延续宽幅震荡，整体继续大幅走弱。 早盘国内开盘前，国际现货黄金在下挫超2%之后快速反弹，并一度"翻红"，但其后便重回跌势，低点回踩4600美元／盎司关口。现货白银更是一度跌近 10%，但随后有走出快速反弹行情，并一度转涨3%。 | 序号 | 代码 | 合约名称 | 最新 | 招聘 中国贸 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ਜ | 801053 | 贵金属 | 7789.35 | -10.03% | | 2 | 000506 | 招金黄金 | 23.10 | -10.01% | | 3 | 000975 | 山金国际B | 31.36 | -9.99% | | ব | 001337 | 四川黄金B | 59.560 | -10.00% | | 5 | 002155 | 湖南黄金R | 34.19 | -7.59% | | 6 | 002237 | 恒邦股份B | 18.59 | -10.02% | | 7 | 002716 | 湖南白银R | 17.14 | -9.98% | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The current biggest risk in the crude oil market is the geopolitical situation around Iran. In the long - term, the key factors affecting crude oil prices are the pressure of oversupply and market expectations. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - The PVC market is expected to face price pressure and fluctuate in the short - term due to high supply, weak domestic demand, and rapid inventory accumulation [2]. - The short - term downward space for pig prices is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see and focus on the slaughter volume of the breeding end and the reduction of fertile sows [4]. - The domestic soybean meal market is supported by terminal feed enterprise inventory needs, but due to high oil mill operating rates and future supply pressure, the rebound amplitude is limited, and caution is advised [5]. - The coking coal price is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival as the coal mine output will decline during the holiday and the fundamentals remain healthy [5]. - The iron ore fundamentals are expected to improve marginally, and the price will fluctuate as steel enterprises increase inventory replenishment and there are weather disturbances in the shipping end [6]. - For palm oil, it is recommended that previous long - positions take profits, wait and see, and avoid chasing high prices due to high futures prices, weak spot price increases, and future supply pressure [6]. - The rebar price is expected to fluctuate at a low level as demand weakens seasonally, inventory accumulation accelerates, but there is cost support [8]. - The asphalt market is expected to accumulate inventory in February. It has strengthened significantly under geopolitical and cost drivers, but there is a risk of a sharp fall, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short positions [8]. - For synthetic rubber, it is recommended to take short positions at a relatively high level in the short - term as the supply remains high, but production is in a loss state and inventory changes are limited [9]. - The methanol market is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short - term as the port inventory increase is expected to slow down and the spot market performs well despite high domestic production and weak downstream demand [10]. - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short - term due to high supply, average demand, and increasing manufacturer inventory [11]. - The copper market is mainly affected by market sentiment in the short - term, with high volatility as the supply is tight and high prices suppress downstream consumption [12]. - The aluminum price may fluctuate greatly recently as the market is affected by the overall sentiment of the non - ferrous sector, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality [12]. - The bond market is bullish as the January PMI decline indicates increased economic downward pressure, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [13]. - The silver price may follow the gold price in the short - term and oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and the interaction between gold and silver should be noted [13]. - The gold price may enter a short - term downward trend but still oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and geopolitical disturbances should be monitored [14]. 3. Summary by Variety Energy - **Crude Oil**: As of January 30, the number of US online drilling oil wells was 411, unchanged from the previous week and 68 less than the same period last year. "OPEC +" will maintain the suspension of production increase in March. The biggest risk is the Iranian situation, and long - term price factors are supply - demand and expectations. Short - term wait - and - see [1]. - **PVC**: The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC is 4780 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The weekly capacity utilization rate is 78.93%, up 0.19%. Social inventory is 120.64 million tons, up 2.45%. High supply, weak demand, and rapid inventory accumulation lead to expected price pressure [2]. - **Asphalt**: In February 2026, the domestic asphalt production is planned to be 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 3.2% month - on - month and 6.5% year - on - year. Supply and demand both decline, and inventory accumulation is expected. There is a risk of a sharp fall [8]. Agriculture - **Pig**: As of January 30, the average weight of slaughtered pigs is 123.57 kg, up 0.06 kg. The weekly slaughter rate is 36.98%, down 0.19%. The price is stable and slightly stronger, and short - term downward space is limited [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: As of last Friday, the domestic soybean meal spot price decreased slightly. Terminal inventory needs support the price, but there is future supply pressure, and the rebound is limited [5]. Metals - **Iron Ore**: The inventory of 45 ports is 170.2226 million tons, up 2.5573 million tons. The daily port clearance volume is 3.3231 million tons, up 215,800 tons. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally, and the price will fluctuate [6]. - **Copper**: The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Fed Chairman may affect long - term liquidity expectations. The supply is tight, and high prices suppress demand. Short - term volatility is high [12]. - **Aluminum**: The strike in Guinea, a major bauxite supplier, causes supply concerns. There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and the price may fluctuate greatly [12]. - **Silver**: The nomination of the Fed Chairman affects the dollar index and pressures precious metals. It may follow gold in the short - term and oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [13]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical disturbances support the price, but the Fed's future policy causes tightening expectations. It may enter a short - term downward trend and oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [14]. Others - **Coking Coal**: The average national profit per ton of coke is - 55 yuan/ton. The coal mine output will decline during the holiday, and the price will fluctuate before the Spring Festival [5]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: As of January 30, the butadiene capacity utilization rate is 71.26%, up 1.81%. The supply is high, but production is in a loss state, and short - term short positions are recommended [9]. - **Methanol**: The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2270 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. The port inventory is increasing, but the expected increase slows down. It is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short - term [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1234 yuan/ton. The production is high, demand is average, and inventory is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [11]. - **Long - term Treasury Bond**: The January PMI decline indicates economic downward pressure, which is bullish for the bond market. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [13].

Market Overview - The A-share market has started 2026 with strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4000 points and reaching a ten-year high of 4121.7 points on January 9 [1][4] - The margin trading balance has exceeded 2.62 trillion yuan, marking a historical high, with significant contributions from sectors like semiconductors, military, and non-ferrous metals [1][4] Market Drivers - The market's new highs are attributed to a combination of "liquidity easing expectations" and "strong policy narratives," which have driven up risk appetite [1] - The current market phase is seen as a transition from a "preference-driven structural bull market" to a "profit-validated comprehensive bull market" [1][8] - The positive sentiment is supported by a favorable liquidity environment and the implementation of supportive macroeconomic policies [4][8] Investment Trends - A report from Guosen Securities suggests that as the market's fundamentals improve, A-shares are expected to enter the latter half of a bull market in 2026, with an anticipated influx of 2 trillion yuan in new funds [2] - The number of new A-share accounts reached 27.44 million in 2025, a 9.75% increase from 2024, indicating growing investor interest [5] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the market will experience a "spring rally" characterized by structural rotation rather than uniform growth [7] - Key factors influencing future performance include the effectiveness of economic policies and the ability of listed companies to meet growth expectations in Q1 [8] - The market is expected to remain in a slow bull trend, with a shift from liquidity-driven growth to earnings-driven growth as companies begin to release their performance [8] Investment Strategies - Investment strategies should focus on a balanced approach, combining value stocks benefiting from macro recovery with growth sectors like AI and high-end manufacturing [11] - Recommendations include maintaining a neutral position with 50-70% equity exposure, gradually building positions, and focusing on sectors aligned with policy support and industry trends [11][12] - High-growth sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industries are highlighted as key investment opportunities, alongside traditional sectors like transportation and real estate that may benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, both gold and silver prices rose, hitting new all - time highs. Silver showed particularly strong performance, with a weekly increase of over 18% and a cumulative increase of over 170% this year. The price increase was supported by macro - level factors, fundamental factors, and changes in the price - spread structure [3]. - In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to remain strong, but there are signs of a "short squeeze" in the silver market, so caution is needed regarding the risk of a phased adjustment due to the rapid price increase, especially during the New Year's Day holiday in China this week. It is recommended that existing long positions be gradually closed for profit, and those not yet in the market should wait and see [5]. - In the long term, the underlying logic of the precious metal bull market remains solid. Factors such as the continuous rise in the US federal government debt, the Fed still in a rate - cut cycle, complex global geopolitical situations, and continued gold purchases by global central banks will support the upward movement of the gold price center [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情及基本面指标跟踪 (Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking) 3.1.1 Gold and Silver Prices and Gold - Silver Ratio - Gold prices rose steadily, with the London spot gold at $4532.505 per ounce, up 4.41% from the previous week. The Shanghai gold futures main contract was at 1016.30 yuan per gram, up 3.71% [4]. - Silver prices soared, with the London spot silver at $79.3290 per ounce, up 18.31% from the previous week. The Shanghai silver futures main contract was at 18319 yuan per kilogram, up 19.14% [4]. - The domestic and foreign gold - silver ratios dropped to near 53 and 57 respectively, reaching the lowest levels since 2013, indicating that silver is no longer undervalued compared to gold [3]. 3.1.2 Price - Spread between Futures and Spot - For gold, the basis (TD - futures) was - 6.17 yuan per gram, with a weekly change rate of 14.26%. The internal - external price difference was - 5.91 yuan per gram, with a weekly change rate of 70.32% [4]. - For silver, the basis (TD - futures) was 181 yuan per kilogram, with a weekly change rate of - 796.15%. The internal - external price difference was - 439 yuan per kilogram, with a weekly change rate of - 65.89% [4]. 3.1.3 ETF and CFTC Positions - Gold SPDR - ETF holdings increased by 18.59 tons to 1071.13 tons, a weekly increase of 1.77%. COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 10092 contracts to 233978 contracts, a weekly increase of 4.51% [4]. - Silver SLV - ETF holdings increased by 324 tons to 16391 tons, a weekly increase of 2.02%. COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions decreased by 8357 contracts to 36352 contracts, a weekly decrease of 18.69% [4]. 3.1.4 Inventory Data - SHFE gold inventory increased by 5.98 tons to 97.692 tons, a weekly increase of 6.52%. COMEX gold inventory increased by 5.76 tons to 1125.67 tons, a weekly increase of 0.51% [4]. - SHFE silver inventory decreased by 80.20 tons to 819 tons, a weekly decrease of 8.92%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 124.39 tons to 13988 tons, a weekly decrease of 0.88%. SGE silver inventory increased by 117.71 tons to 832 tons, a weekly increase of 16.48% [4]. 3.2主要宏观指标跟踪 (Tracking of Major Macroeconomic Indicators) 3.2.1 Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index was at 98.0341, down 0.69% from the previous week. The US dollar against the offshore RMB was at 7.0042, down 0.42% [4]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was at 3.4749%, down 0.06% from the previous week. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was at 4.1277%, down 0.23% [4]. 3.2.2 Economic Data - The US third - quarter GDP growth was strong, and the consumer confidence index rebounded for the first time in five months [61]. - The US November non - farm payrolls were higher than expected, and the unemployment rate rebounded. Job vacancies increased, and the labor participation rate increased. Wage growth slowed down both month - on - month and year - on - year [66]. - Inflation in the US was relatively controllable. Core commodity inflation rebounded, while core service inflation declined. Consumer inflation expectations rose significantly [68][71]. 3.2.3 Eurozone Economic Data - The Eurozone GDP bottomed out and rebounded. The manufacturing and service PMIs in the Eurozone declined, and inflation data in the Eurozone and the UK were also presented [77][78]. 3.2.4 Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for 13 consecutive months. As of the end of November, China's gold reserves reached 74.12 million ounces (about 2305.39 tons), an increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons) from the previous month [85]. - Global central banks still maintained net gold purchases. In the first three quarters of 2025, global central banks and other institutions net - purchased about 633.6 tons of gold, a year - on - year decrease of about 12.1%. However, the gold - purchasing demand is expected to remain strong in the future [85].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by multiple factors, including expectations of liquidity easing due to the Federal Reserve's resumption of interest rate cuts and technical balance sheet expansion, a global trend towards de-dollarization exacerbated by trade tariff policies, and a weakening of the dollar's position due to concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability [1] Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Strong investor demand has replaced central bank gold purchases as the primary force driving gold prices higher [1] - The macroeconomic backdrop includes a combination of liquidity expectations and geopolitical factors influencing market dynamics [1] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - The silver market is experiencing a more structural supply-demand imbalance, characterized by persistently low global silver inventories [1] - A "structural squeeze" phenomenon is observed in the market, driven by increasing rigid industrial demand in sectors such as solar photovoltaic, electronics, and healthcare, leading to soaring spot premiums [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Precious metal prices showed a differentiation. Shanghai gold futures contracts fluctuated slightly at high levels, while Shanghai silver futures contracts rose by over 4% overnight, hitting a new record high. In the short - term, the risk of high - level volatility in silver increased, but in the quarterly level, the long logic of gold and silver remained smooth. Gold had a relatively high price safety margin as its historical volatility was at the end - of - year low [1]. - The core factors driving the upward movement of gold prices, such as geopolitical factors, the weakening of the US dollar, continuous central bank gold purchases, and the expectation of US interest rate cuts in the next year, remained unchanged. The expectation of loose liquidity was the core logic driving gold up in the quarterly level. The period from the nomination to the assumption of office of the new Fed chair was considered the most favorable time for trading liquidity expectations and Fed independence risks. Geopolitical tensions led to active safe - haven demand [6]. - In the short - term, silver prices might face increased volatility after a continuous sharp rise. In the long - term, the core drivers of silver price increases remained unchanged, and the upward elasticity of silver was expected to be further released in 2026. The silver spot structural shortage problem might still recur in the first quarter. The gold - silver ratio was expected to decline [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - On December 25, the offshore RMB against the US dollar broke through the 7.0 mark, reaching 6.9985 at the highest, the first time since September 2024. The offshore RMB had appreciated by 4.6% against the US dollar this year, and the on - shore RMB was approaching the 7 mark, with an annual appreciation of 4% [2]. - On December 25, the Ukrainian Air Force launched a missile attack on a Russian refinery in Rostov Oblast, which was one of the largest oil product suppliers in southern Russia with a storage tank capacity of over 210,000 cubic meters [2]. - A US official said on December 24 that the White House had ordered the US military to focus on the "blockade" of Venezuelan oil for at least the next two months, preferring economic pressure over military action [2]. - On December 24, Ukrainian President Zelensky announced a 20 - point draft of the latest Russia - Ukraine "peace plan", but the core territorial issues remained unresolved [2]. - On December 25, Japanese Prime Minister Kaoi Sanae announced a 2026 fiscal year budget of 122.3 trillion yen (about 5.5 trillion RMB), a 6.3% increase from 2025, the highest in Japanese history. The government planned to issue about 29.6 trillion yen in new bonds to support this large - scale expenditure [3]. - Guotou Silver LOF announced that the fund would be suspended from trading from the opening on December 26, 2025, to 10:30 and resume trading at 10:30. If the premium rate of the secondary market trading price did not decline effectively, the fund had the right to apply for temporary suspension or extended suspension to warn the market [3]. 3.2 Price Logic - Gold: After hitting a record high, Shanghai gold futures adjusted slightly, possibly due to some traders taking profits before the New Year. The core factors driving gold prices up remained, and the expectation of loose liquidity was the main driver in the quarterly level. The period around the Fed chair nomination was favorable for related trading. Geopolitical tensions maintained active safe - haven demand [6]. - Silver: Shanghai silver futures rose by over 4% overnight, hitting a new record high. In the short - term, there was a risk of increased volatility, and investors needed to manage their positions. In the long - term, the core drivers of price increases remained unchanged, and in 2026, silver was expected to have greater upward elasticity and the gold - silver ratio might decline. The silver spot structural shortage problem might still occur in the first quarter [7]. 3.3 Outlook - In the short - term, the price range of London gold was expected to be between 4200 and 4550 US dollars per ounce, and that of London silver between 60 and 75 US dollars per ounce [8]. 3.4 Commodity Index - On December 25, 2025, the comprehensive commodity index was 2327.86, down 0.14%; the commodity 20 index was 2669.31, down 0.12%; the industrial products index was 2254.18, down 0.17% [49]. - The precious metals index was 3927.63 on December 25, 2025, with a daily decline of 0.77%, a 5 - day increase of 6.01%, a one - month increase of 16.51%, and a year - to - date increase of 77.53% [51].

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping [3][4] Report Content 1. Market Review - The overseas market saw the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, and the market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut in January gradually increased. Driven by the expectation of loose liquidity, precious metals led the gains, and base metals closed higher across the board. Shanghai zinc oscillated at a high level, with the main contract closing at 23,230 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan or 0.93%, with increased volume and open interest. The net long position of the top 20 seats increased by 1,760 lots [7]. - On the 24th, LME zinc inventory increased by 7,900 tons to 106,875 tons, with an increase of 8,300 tons in Singapore and a decrease of 400 tons in Port Klang. The easing of concerns about low LME zinc inventory led to a weakening of the structure. In China, the tightness of the mining end continued to be transmitted, with lower processing fees and reduced arrivals supporting the continuous decline of social inventory. Near the end of the year, downstream orders were average, the spot trading atmosphere was weak, and the spot premium declined. The premium in Shanghai was 150 yuan/ton over the 01 contract, Tianjin was at a discount of 90 yuan/ton to Shanghai, and Guangdong was at a discount of 5 yuan/ton to the 02 contract [7]. 2. Industry News - On December 24, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 23,240 - 23,355 yuan/ton, and there was no transaction for Shuangyan. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 23,170 - 23,285 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 50 - 70 yuan/ton over the SMM average price, and there were few quotes against the market [8]. - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream price of 0 zinc was around 23,350 - 23,445 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo quoted a premium of 240 yuan/ton over the 2601 contract and a premium of 150 yuan/ton over the Shanghai spot price. The mainstream in the Ningbo area quoted against the 2601 contract [8]. - In the Tianjin market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots was between 23,100 - 23,230 yuan/ton, and Zijin was traded between 23,140 - 23,260 yuan/ton. The transaction price of 1 zinc ingots was around 22,980 - 23,090 yuan/ton. Zijin quoted a premium of 40 - 60 yuan/ton over the 2601 contract, and Huludao quoted 24,560 yuan/ton. The ordinary 0 zinc quoted a premium of 0 - 30 yuan/ton over the 2601 contract. Tianjin was at a discount of 90 yuan/ton to Shanghai [8]. - In Guangdong, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was between 23,125 - 23,270 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands quoted a discount of 5 yuan/ton against the 2602 contract, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report includes data on the futures market, such as the opening, closing, highest, and lowest prices, price changes, changes in open interest of Shanghai zinc futures contracts, as well as LME zinc inventory and domestic social inventory data, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [7].

Group 1 - Precious metals experienced a significant surge recently, with spot gold reaching a historical high of $4,525 per ounce, spot silver surpassing $70 per ounce for the first time, and spot platinum breaking $2,300 per ounce [1] - Following the sharp increase, there was a collective pullback in precious metals, with spot gold dropping to $4,448 per ounce, spot silver to $70.1 per ounce, and spot palladium to $1,676 per ounce [1] - Analysts attribute the recent surge in precious metals to a combination of expectations for liquidity easing, geopolitical instability, and structural supply-demand imbalances [1] Group 2 - Affected stocks in the A-share market saw declines, with Guoyan Platinum down 5.76%, Yinxing Nonferrous down 5.26%, and Shengda Resources down 4.62% [2] - Other notable declines included Guocheng Mining down 4.56%, CITIC Metal down 3.70%, and Hunan Silver down 3.56% [2] - Year-to-date performance shows significant gains for some companies, with Shengda Resources up 147.97% and Yinxing Nonferrous up 100.72% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold has historically surpassed $4,500 per ounce, attracting significant market attention amid short-term volatility and long-term opportunities [1] Group 1: Macro Environment and Policy Expectations - The weakening U.S. macroeconomic and employment data has strengthened the expectations for risk aversion and interest rate cuts, providing crucial support for gold prices [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy direction and expectations for liquidity easing have become focal points for the market, with the recent Fed meeting injecting liquidity into the market [2] - Global liquidity conditions are favorable for gold prices due to divergent policy adjustments among major economies, such as the Bank of England's rate cut and the European Central Bank's stable rates [2] Group 2: Demand for Gold and Investment Trends - There is a rigid growth in demand for gold as an asset, driven by private sector investments, with gold ETFs experiencing a net inflow of $5.2 billion in November [2] - Central banks are increasingly purchasing gold for asset management, risk mitigation, and to navigate uncertainties in the evolving monetary order, which supports the price stability of gold [3] - The short-term outlook for gold prices remains volatile due to seasonal trading patterns, but long-term opportunities are anticipated around February 2024, coinciding with expected increases in U.S. debt issuance [4]