有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/11/21 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/11/14 60 2948 115035 49830 -920.93 192.73 34.0 46.0 3.88 135725 9650 2025/11/17 120 2602 115035 56965 -566.06 195.52 32.0 47.0 -32.62 136050 9475 2025/11/18 80 2326 115035 60874 -360.16 391.33 32.0 47.0 -35.33 140500 8925 2025/11/19 95 2456 115035 58352 -425.43 301.32 33.0 48.0 -33.13 157875 9725 2025/11/20 85 2537 115035 54983 -503.28 153.32 33.0 48.0 -18.89 157925 9475 变化 -10 81 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report Core Views - This week, copper prices fluctuated narrowly. Supported by the precious metals market, copper prices were strong in the first half of the week and adjusted on Friday. The downstream point - pricing volume rebounded significantly. The price around 85,000 may be the psychological price for downstream point - pricing [1]. - Overseas production suspension news and expectations boosted the domestic aluminum price, which was stronger than the overseas price. Short - term profit - taking led to a correction in the Shanghai aluminum futures. Aluminum ingots continued to accumulate inventory, while aluminum rods, sheets, and foils slightly reduced inventory. The downstream consumption was okay, and the acceptance of high prices increased. In the short term, it may show a fluctuating trend [1][2]. - This week, zinc prices fluctuated. The domestic and imported TC decreased further this week. The domestic zinc ore will be tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The processing fee has dropped significantly. The demand is seasonally weak domestically, while overseas, the demand in Europe is average and the growth rate in the Middle East is high. The price center may be difficult to decline deeply. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading; pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity and be cautious when increasing positions; for the month - spread, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 [5]. - Nickel prices decreased this week. The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly month - on - month, the demand was weak overall, and the inventory continued to accumulate at home and abroad. There are continuous disturbances at the Indonesian ore end, and the policy side has the motivation to support prices. Pay attention to the short - selling opportunities [6]. - Stainless steel prices were weak. The steel mill's production plan in October increased slightly month - on - month, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, the cost remained stable, and the inventory remained at a high level. The Indonesian policy side has the motivation to support prices. Pay attention to the short - selling opportunities [7]. - This week, lead prices fluctuated at a high level. The supply of primary and recycled lead was tight, and the supply - demand mismatch was serious. Now the resumption of recycled lead production has alleviated some of the contradictions, and the social inventory has increased. The demand is expected to weaken. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate narrowly next week, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - This week, tin prices increased. The processing fee of tin ore remained at a low level, and the supply has been marginally repaired. The overseas output is still controversial. The demand is mainly rigid, and the overseas LME inventory has recovered. In the short term, it follows the macro - sentiment. In the long - term, the supply will increase, but the elasticity is limited. It is recommended to hold at a low price close to the cost or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [11]. - This week, the price of industrial silicon was stable. The production in the northwest region was basically stable, and the overall change was small. In the fourth quarter, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate; in the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [15]. - Affected by the lithium - battery demand expectation and the market's bullish sentiment, the price of lithium carbonate was strong. The upstream inventory has been significantly reduced, and the downstream inventory is still relatively sufficient. The basis has slightly weakened. In the long - term, if the energy - storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable, the pattern of lithium carbonate may change in the next 1 - 2 years [17]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the Shanghai copper spot price changed from 55 to 95, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 130, the LME inventory increased by 17,375, and the LME注销仓单 increased by 800 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, copper prices fluctuated narrowly. Supported by the precious metals market, copper prices were strong in the first half of the week and adjusted on Friday. The downstream point - pricing volume rebounded significantly. The price around 85,000 may be the psychological price for downstream point - pricing [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 90, the domestic alumina price decreased by 5, the aluminum LME inventory decreased by 2,000, and the aluminum LME注销仓单 increased by 29,450 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Overseas production suspension news and expectations boosted the domestic aluminum price, which was stronger than the overseas price. Short - term profit - taking led to a correction in the Shanghai aluminum futures. Aluminum ingots continued to accumulate inventory, while aluminum rods, sheets, and foils slightly reduced inventory. The downstream consumption was okay, and the acceptance of high prices increased. In the short term, it may show a fluctuating trend [1][2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 100, the zinc social inventory remained unchanged, the LME zinc inventory increased by 1,550, and the LME zinc注销仓单 increased by 100 [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic and imported TC decreased further this week. The domestic zinc ore will be tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The demand is seasonally weak domestically, while overseas, the demand in Europe is average and the growth rate in the Middle East is high. The export window has opened [5]. - **Strategy**: The domestic consumption of zinc is weak, but there will be a phased reduction in supply at the end of the year. The price center may be difficult to decline deeply. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading; pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity and be cautious when increasing positions; for the month - spread, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore decreased by 1, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 700, the LME inventory decreased by 1,986, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 2,238 [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly month - on - month, the demand was weak overall, and the inventory continued to accumulate at home and abroad. There are continuous disturbances at the Indonesian ore end, and the policy side has the motivation to support prices [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil decreased by 100, the price of waste stainless steel increased by 50 [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The steel mill's production plan in October increased slightly month - on - month, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, the cost remained stable, and the inventory remained at a high level. The Indonesian policy side has the motivation to support prices [7]. Lead - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the lead spot price increased by 10, the LME inventory decreased by 325, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 2,500 [8][9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of primary and recycled lead was tight, and the supply - demand mismatch was serious. Now the resumption of recycled lead production has alleviated some of the contradictions, and the social inventory has increased. The demand is expected to weaken [9]. - **Strategy**: It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate narrowly next week, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Tin - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the tin spot import profit decreased by 236.31, the LME inventory increased by 60, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 10 [10][11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The processing fee of tin ore remained at a low level, and the supply has been marginally repaired. The overseas output is still controversial. The demand is mainly rigid, and the overseas LME inventory has recovered [11]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it follows the macro - sentiment. In the long - term, the supply will increase, but the elasticity is limited. It is recommended to hold at a low price close to the cost or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [11]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 410, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 410, the 553 East China basis decreased by 410, the 553 Tianjin basis decreased by 410, and the warehouse receipt increased by 10 [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production in the northwest region was basically stable, and the overall change was small. In the fourth quarter, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state [15]. - **Price Trend**: In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate; in the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: From November 13th to 19th, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1,500, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1,450, the main - contract basis decreased by 4,280, the near - month contract basis increased by 1,500, and the warehouse receipt increased by 155 [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The upstream inventory has been significantly reduced, and the downstream inventory is still relatively sufficient. The basis has slightly weakened [17]. - **Price Trend**: In the long - term, if the energy - storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable, the pattern of lithium carbonate may change in the next 1 - 2 years [17].

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/11/19 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/11/12 55 2882 115035 44088 -744.41 290.86 34.0 46.0 -14.10 136250 10200 2025/11/13 55 3108 115035 43957 -739.90 198.56 34.0 46.0 -5.96 136175 10125 2025/11/14 60 2948 115035 49830 -920.93 192.73 34.0 46.0 3.88 135725 9650 2025/11/17 120 2602 115035 56965 - - 32.0 47.0 -32.62 136050 9475 2025/11/18 80 2326 115035 60874 - - 32.0 47.0 -35.33 140500 8925 变化 -40 -276 0 3909 - - 0.0 0.0 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/11/18 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/11/11 75 2862 115035 42964 -502.58 344.07 34.0 46.0 -21.28 136250 10200 2025/11/12 55 2882 115035 44088 -744.41 290.86 34.0 46.0 -14.10 136250 10200 2025/11/13 55 3108 115035 43957 -739.90 198.56 34.0 46.0 -5.96 136175 10125 2025/11/14 60 2948 115035 49830 -920.93 192.73 34.0 46.0 3.88 135725 9650 2025/11/17 120 2602 115035 56965 - - 32.0 47.0 -32.62 136050 9475 变化 60 -346 0 7135 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/11/17 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/11/10 75 2856 115035 43789 -519.15 379.40 34.0 43.0 -14.85 136275 11725 2025/11/11 75 2862 115035 42964 -502.58 344.07 34.0 46.0 -21.28 136250 10200 2025/11/12 55 2882 115035 44088 -744.41 290.86 34.0 46.0 -14.10 136250 10200 2025/11/13 55 3108 115035 43957 -739.90 198.56 34.0 46.0 -5.96 136175 10125 2025/11/14 60 2948 115035 49830 -920.93 192.73 34.0 46.0 3.88 135725 9650 变化 5 -1 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices have risen above $4,070 per ounce. Weakening US consumer confidence and employment indicators have strengthened expectations of interest rate cuts, partially offsetting the negative impact of the end of the government shutdown. The market's trading logic has returned to expectations of loose liquidity [1]. - The current gold price is driven by the resonance of "economic weakness" and "fiscal expansion". The silver price follows the rhythm of gold, with an expected monthly oscillation. In the long - term, gold is the anchor for silver pricing, and a contraction in the US dollar's credit is beneficial to physical currencies, with gold benefiting first and silver enjoying spill - over effects [3]. - The weekly price of London gold is expected to be in the range of $3,800 - $4,200 per ounce, and that of London silver in the range of $46 - $52 per ounce [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending a 40 - day government shutdown. Federal employees have returned to work, and lagging data will be released gradually [2]. - The US consumer confidence index dropped to a three - and - a - half - year low (50.3), and Challenger job cuts soared by 183% compared to the previous month, indicating a continuous cooling of the labor market [2]. - Sino - US trade flow has been weak, shipping capacity has dropped to the lowest level this year, and the WCI freight index has fallen from its mid - year high, showing a slowdown in foreign trade demand, which supports the expectation of a decline in US inflation and strengthens the Fed's logic of loosening [2]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the US economy is experiencing a "downward demand shock", wage growth has slowed, inflation is still under control, and the impact of tariffs is mainly limited to the commodity sector. She hinted that the December meeting will maintain a loose stance [2]. - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the 12th consecutive month in October, and global gold ETFs recorded net inflows in the past two days [2]. Price Logic Gold - The economic aspect: The decline in consumption and employment caused by the shutdown is gradually emerging. Alternative indicators show a slowdown in economic momentum. Sino - US shipping and trade flow declines support the Fed's decision to continue cutting interest rates in December. Mary Daly's statement further consolidates market bets on interest rate cuts [3]. - The fiscal aspect: The government's resumption of work brings one - time expenditure replenishment and the continuation of medical insurance subsidies. Short - term fiscal investment may push up long - term interest rates and cause short - term fluctuations, but in the medium - term, US debt expansion and deficit pressure will extend the loose cycle, which is beneficial to the reserve and hedging demand for gold [3]. Silver - The silver price follows the rhythm of gold, with an expected monthly oscillation. Focus on the trading window around the December FOMC meeting. In the long - term, gold is the anchor for silver pricing, and a contraction in the US dollar's credit benefits physical currencies, with gold benefiting first and silver enjoying spill - over effects. Interest rate cuts will drive the repair of the US fundamentals, and with global fiscal resonance expansion, the world may shift from a soft landing to a moderate recovery in 2026, which is conducive to the release of silver's long - term elasticity [3][6]. Commodity Index - On November 10, 2025, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index of the CITICS Futures Commodity Index increased by 0.65%, 0.71%, and 0.48% respectively [43]. Precious Metals Index - As of November 10, 2025, the precious metals index had a daily increase of 1.73%, a 5 - day increase of 2.85%, a 1 - month increase of 1.15%, and a year - to - date increase of 49.57% [45].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Report's Core View - In November, copper prices will fluctuate at high levels, and the operation strategy of buying on dips should be maintained. There are liquidity easing expectations in the macro - market, and the short - term concern about Sino - US trade issues has significantly eased. Fundamentally, overseas ore supply pressure persists, domestic smelter maintenance impacts deepen, and most inventories are at relatively low levels except in the US. The demand side has strong resilience. After copper prices hit a new high, they lack upward drive and investors need to be vigilant about tail risks and seize adjustment buying opportunities [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1.后市研判 (Outlook for the Future) - In November, copper prices will fluctuate at high levels. With the market gradually reaching a consensus on tightening supply, the psychological upper limit of the downstream for copper prices is gradually rising. After copper prices hit a new high, they lack upward drive due to the Fed's hawkish remarks and the rebound of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields. Investors should be vigilant about tail risks and seize adjustment buying opportunities [5][6] 2.行情回顾 (Market Review) - In October, copper prices were generally strong. Affected by overseas mine operation disruptions, copper prices gapped up after the National Day holiday. Then, due to the US provoking a "trade war" against China, copper prices slightly corrected. With the progress of Sino - US negotiations and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in October, copper prices rose again and broke through the highest point in May 2024 [8][9] 3.宏观面 (Macroeconomic Aspects) - **Interest Rate Policy**: The Fed cut interest rates in October, but a further rate cut in December is "far from certain". The US government's "shutdown" in October affected the release of economic data. The CPI data in September showed that overall inflation was controllable, which further consolidated the market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut in October [11][14] - **Sino - US Trade Relations**: In October, the US provoked a "trade war" against China again, causing copper prices to fall. However, through Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the two sides reached a consensus on multiple issues, and the short - term concern about Sino - US trade issues significantly eased, enhancing market confidence in the economic growth of the two countries [16] - **Domestic Economic and Policy Situation**: China's Q3 GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was reviewed and approved, which will bring policy benefits to the terminal application fields. The copper industry should prevent "involution - style" vicious competition and ensure the safety of the industrial chain and supply chain. The US has adjusted its copper resource strategy, which may change the global copper supply flow [18][22][23] 4.基本面 (Fundamental Aspects) - **Supply Side**: In September, China's copper ore concentrate imports decreased month - on - month, with a sharp drop in shipments from Chile. Overseas mine operation disturbances increased, and the processing fee for imported copper concentrates remained in the negative range. Except for the significant accumulation of copper inventories in the US, LME and SHFE copper inventories decreased or remained stable. In October, the output of electrolytic copper continued to decline due to the peak of smelter maintenance, the impact of recycled copper policies, and the low processing fee of copper concentrates [24][28][31][35] - **Demand Side**: In September, China's scrap copper imports increased month - on - month and year - on - year. The expected decline in the operating rate of the refined copper rod industry in October was due to the high copper price. As of September, the cumulative installed power generation capacity increased year - on - year, and the new photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to continue to grow. The real estate market is weak, with a decline in construction area, new construction area, and sales area. The automobile market maintained a high - growth trend, and the new energy vehicle market performed well. The home appliance market entered a seasonal off - season [39][43][47][50][56][59]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, highlighting a significant increase in market value and the response from exchanges regarding risk management measures [1][2][3]. Market Performance - On October 17, the spot price of London gold reached a high of $4,380 per ounce before a rapid decline, with the total market capitalization of gold surpassing $30 trillion [1][2]. - A-share market gold stocks, such as Western Gold and others, saw gains, with notable increases of over 4% for Cuihua Jewelry and over 3% for Western Gold and Xiaocheng Technology [2]. Price Trends and Influencing Factors - Since surpassing $4,000 per ounce in October, the spot price of London gold has increased by nearly 13% [2]. - Key factors driving the rise in precious metal prices include expectations of loose liquidity due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, concerns over the U.S. national debt, and heightened risk aversion stemming from geopolitical tensions and domestic banking issues [3][4]. Risk Management Measures - Exchanges have implemented risk warning measures due to increased volatility in gold and silver prices. The Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange have issued notifications urging investors to manage risks and maintain rational investment strategies [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to margin requirements and price fluctuation limits for gold and silver futures contracts, aimed at reducing trading leverage and mitigating risks associated with price volatility [3]. Long-term Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices could reach $4,500 per ounce by the second half of 2026, while Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for December 2026 from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce [4][6]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates continued support for gold prices from central bank purchases and inflows into gold ETFs, projecting that these factors could contribute significantly to price increases [6].

Market Performance - On October 15, the Shanghai Composite Index returned to 3900 points, with the ChiNext Index rising over 2.3% [1][2] Economic Indicators - In September, China's total import and export value increased by 8% year-on-year, reaching a new high for the year, indicating a recovery in both domestic and external demand [2] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen for the fifth consecutive month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) has seen a narrowing year-on-year decline, reflecting a gradual accumulation of internal momentum and alleviating profit pressures in the industrial sector [2] Trade Resilience - September exports grew by 8.4%, attributed to the effectiveness of market diversification strategies and optimization of export structures, which reduced reliance on a single market [2] - Cumulative imports and exports in the first three quarters maintained positive growth, showcasing China's enhanced resilience to external risks [2] Sector Performance - The technology sector has seen a boost from domestic breakthroughs, such as the release of domestic EDA software, which fills gaps in high-end tools [2] - Growth logic in sectors like new energy and intelligent equipment has been further solidified, providing fundamental support for technology and high-end manufacturing sectors in the A-share market [2] Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to continue a structural trend under the backdrop of fundamental recovery and expectations of policy easing [3] - The moderate domestic price levels provide room for macro policy adjustments, while resilient exports and technological breakthroughs strengthen long-term confidence [3] - Recommendations for asset allocation include focusing on technology, new energy, and high-end manufacturing sectors, which may benefit from improved domestic demand, industrial upgrades, and globalization [3]

Group 1 - During the National Day holiday, the expectation of overseas liquidity easing boosted the non-ferrous metals market, with copper prices reaching a new high [1] - On the first trading day after the holiday, domestic tin prices surged, with the main contract closing up 2.99% at 287,090 yuan/ton, marking a six-month high [1] - Although trading volume significantly decreased compared to before the holiday, open interest increased substantially, indicating a balanced position between long and short positions [1] Group 2 - Specific trading positions showed that Dongzheng Futures increased long positions by 1,056 contracts, significantly outpacing the increase in short positions, resulting in a net long position increase of 880 contracts [2] - Citic Futures also saw increases in both long and short positions, with long positions rising by 374 contracts to 1,144 contracts, ranking third [2] - Other futures firms like GF Futures and Dongwu Futures increased long positions by over 400 contracts while slightly reducing short positions, indicating a decrease in net short positions [2] Group 3 - Overall, LME inventory has declined again, and liquidity concerns remain, contributing to the rise in tin prices [3] - Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining has raised market concerns, but the impact on major tin smelting companies is expected to be limited due to their stable supply channels [3] - Domestic tin production is set to resume after maintenance, and supply is expected to slightly increase, while demand remains weak, with attention on consumption trends in October [3]