Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching a historical high of over $5,100 per ounce, is primarily driven by supply scarcity and increasing demand from various sectors, including central banks and industrial applications [1][4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The total amount of gold mined throughout history is approximately 216,000 tons, with only about 55,000 to 64,000 tons of gold currently available for extraction under existing technological conditions. At the current mining rate, global gold reserves could be depleted in 15 to 18 years without new discoveries [1]. - Industrial demand for gold is significant, accounting for about 15% of global gold usage, while jewelry constitutes approximately 45%. Central bank reserves and gold ETFs represent 17% and 22% respectively [4]. Central Bank Activity - Central banks have increased their gold reserves significantly, with the proportion of gold in global official reserves rising to about 28.9%, an increase of approximately 11.9% year-on-year. This trend is largely attributed to geopolitical instability, which enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East, have led to a reconfiguration of the global governance system, further elevating gold's status as a protective asset [4]. Economic Context - The deterioration of the U.S. dollar's credit system, exacerbated by rising national debt projected to exceed $40 trillion, is prompting global central banks to adjust their reserve assets. This shift is contributing to the increased demand for gold as an alternative investment [5]. Investment Trends - The global gold ETF market has seen a substantial increase, with a net inflow of approximately $89 billion in 2025, bringing total assets under management to a record $559 billion. This trend indicates a growing interest among both institutional and individual investors in gold as a viable investment option [5].

正是由于供给的稀缺，才有了马克思关于"货币天然是金银"的经典论断。在纸币出现之前，黄金在很长一段时间都以货币的形式存在。在金本 位制下，本国信用货币与固定重量的黄金挂钩是国际上的通行做法。二战后建立的国际货币体系（布雷顿森林体系）核心就是美元与黄金挂 钩，其他国家货币与美元挂钩。 这些体系建立的基本逻辑，就是全球黄金的稀缺性。需要强调的一点是，如此稀缺的黄金用途其实还很广泛，除了我们所熟知的首饰外，黄金 还凭借优异的物理化学性能，在芯片制造、航空航天、新能源新材料和医疗健康等领域，发挥着不可或缺的作用，一度被誉为新兴产业和未来 产业的"工业维生素"。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 肖宇（中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员） 1月26日，国际金价再创历史新高，现货黄金突破每盎司5100美元。 分析当前金价走势离不开供给和需求，在供给端，黄金的稀缺性决定了其不可替代的价值。根据世界黄金协会数据，人类历史上已经累计开采 的黄金约为21.6万吨，而在目前技术条件下，全球已探明并可开采的黄金储量只有约5.5万-6.4万吨。若按当前开采速度，在不发现具备可开采 条件的新矿情况下 ...