格隆汇1月10日｜据央视，2025年全球央行纷纷增持黄金，以增强资产组合的多元性与稳定性，这导致 国际黄金价格大涨。金价在2025年年内50多次刷新历史新高，伦敦现货黄金累计涨幅超过60%。与之相 反的是，美元指数从2025年年初的108附近，下跌到年底的98左右，累计跌幅9.4%，创下8年来最差表 现。美元在全球外汇储备中的占比也是一跌再跌。国际货币基金组织发布的数据显示，2025年第三季 度，美元在全球外汇储备中的占比从第二季度的57.08%下降至56.92%，连续超10个季度低于60%，创 1995年以来的最低值。 ...

2026年即将到来，国际黄金市场延续强势格局，现货黄金价格持续高位震荡，刷新历史纪录。在美联储 降息预期升温、地缘政治风险叠加及全球央行增持黄金的背景下，黄金成为年末投资者关注的焦点。然 而，在黄金投资热度攀升之际，专家提醒投资者需警惕市场波动风险，树立理性投资观念。 黄金市场年末表现强劲，多重因素驱动上涨 2025年，国际金价在多重利好因素推动下表现亮眼。美联储进入降息周期，实际利率下行提升黄金吸引 力；同时，全球地缘政治紧张局势加剧，黄金作为传统避险资产的需求显著增加。此外，各国央行持续 增持黄金储备，进一步支撑金价上行。 年末市场流动性收紧，部分投资者选择黄金作为资产配置的"压舱石"，以对冲潜在经济风险。然而，黄 金价格波动性也随之加大，投资者需密切关注市场动态，避免盲目追高。 黄金投资风险不容忽视，专家建议审慎决策 黄金市场机遇与风险并存。投资者在追逐收益的同时，需保持理性，树立长期投资理念，避免因短期波 动而盲目操作。黄金作为资产配置的"稳定器"，其价值在于穿越周期，而非博取短期暴利。 分批建仓：避免一次性投入，可逢低逐步买入，平滑价格波动风险。 关注政策动向：紧密跟踪美联储议息会议及全球经济数据， ...

该板块上，湖南黄金主营业务为黄金及锑、钨等有色金属矿山的开采、选矿，金锑钨等有色金属的冶炼 及加工，黄金、精锑的深加工及有色金属矿产品的进出口业务等，公司黄金产量湖南省第一，锑锭及氧 化锑产量位居全国第二。2025年三季报，公司每股收益0.66元，归母净利润102879.93万元，净利润同比 增长率54.28%。 湖南黄金今年1月2日开盘价为15.86元/股，12月24日收盘价为21.62元/股，到目前为止年内涨幅约36%。 不过，记者注意到，湖南黄金4月22日股价曾达到26.76元/股，与年初开盘价相比涨幅接近70%。 湖南白银的主营业务为白银、电解铅、黄金、电积铜、银制品等有色金属及贵金属产品的冶炼和销售， 公司白银年产量居全国同类企业前列。2025年三季报，公司每股收益0.06元，归母净利润15855.81万 元，净利润同比增长率28.44%。 湖南白银今年1月2日开盘价为3.42元/股，12月24日收盘价为6.75元/股，到目前为止年内涨幅约98%。记 者注意到，湖南白银10月14日股价曾达到8.28元/股，与年初开盘价相比涨幅接近150%。 业内人士表示，目前美元进入降息周期，并且受逆全球化、地区冲 ...

贵金属年报 2025 年 12 月 12 日 长牛逻辑依然坚实 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 全球贸易格局重塑之下，美元信用受损，贵金属 的避险属性和财富保值属性强化，货币属性正在 回归，金银长期上涨的逻辑依然坚实。2026年美 联储处于降息周期之中，美元指数趋弱将支撑贵 金属的金融属性溢价，为金银提供持续的驱动。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 22 / ⚫ 白银在今年6月开启补涨行情并屡创新高。目前 白银被列入关键矿物，全球白银供给缺乏上调能 力，而需求端有明显的增量，再加上可流通库存 偏紧，白银将继续受益于"战略资源+金融属性+ 工业属性"三重驱动。在美国利率下行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a bullish outlook on gold prices, predicting that they may reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026, with current prices at $4,130, indicating a potential increase of nearly 21% [1]. Group 1: Current Market Situation - Gold prices have recently surged, with London gold reaching $4,140, up from $4,094 just two weeks prior [3]. - In China, the price of gold has risen to 1,312 RMB per gram, with a daily increase of 17 RMB, indicating strong demand for gold bars over jewelry [3]. - The average daily trading volume of gold ETFs has surpassed 12 billion RMB, with Huaan Gold ETF increasing by 9.8 billion RMB in one month [3]. - Major companies like Shandong Gold have reported nearly doubling their net profits to 4.1 billion RMB in the first three quarters, largely due to rising gold prices [3]. Group 2: Reasons for Price Increase - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in December, which typically boosts gold prices as the dollar weakens [5]. - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with China adding to its holdings for 12 consecutive months, now totaling 2,305 tons. In the first three quarters, global central banks purchased 634 tons, potentially exceeding 1,000 tons for the year [5]. - There is a significant imbalance in the gold market, with increasing demand from both central banks and industrial uses, while supply is constrained due to deeper mining operations and rising costs [5]. Group 3: Future Price Predictions - Other institutions share a positive outlook, with Goldman Sachs and UBS predicting gold prices could reach $4,900, while China International Capital Corporation estimates $4,500 [7]. - The core logic remains that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates twice next year, and the trend of central banks purchasing gold is expected to continue, providing long-term support for prices [7]. - Although short-term corrections may occur, the fundamental factors of rate cuts, central bank buying, and supply-demand tension suggest a long-term upward trend in gold prices [7].

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a comprehensive rebound, with Huayu Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and Laofengxiang rising by 7%, 5.5%, and 5.2% respectively, leading to a 5% increase in the gold stock ETF and a 3.19% rise in the non-ferrous metal ETF fund [1] Group 2 - Overnight spot gold briefly fell below $3,900 per ounce, marking a decline of over 11% from its recent peak, the largest pullback in nearly two years, but rebounded to above $3,970 per ounce during the Asian trading session [2] - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates on Thursday, with expectations for another rate cut in December [2] - The Bank of Korea is considering increasing its gold reserves for the first time since 2013, reflecting a global trend of central banks increasing gold holdings [2] - Despite potential short-term downward pressure on gold prices, factors such as a likely long-term weakening of the dollar, increased global liquidity, ongoing central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation expectations suggest that gold may stabilize after short-term pressures are released [2] Group 3 - Notable products to watch include the low-cost gold and silver-related ETF: Gold Stock ETF (159562), which rose by 5% with a net inflow of 1.2 billion yuan over the past 20 trading days, tracking an index dominated by gold and copper, also including silver-related companies [2] - The balanced allocation of mainstream metals is represented by the Non-Ferrous Metal ETF Fund (516650), which increased by 3.25%, with major stocks including Zijin Mining (copper, gold), Luoyang Molybdenum (copper, molybdenum, cobalt), Northern Rare Earth (rare earth), Huayou Cobalt (cobalt, copper), and China Aluminum (aluminum) [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The significant decline in precious metal prices is mainly due to the weakening market confidence in short - term gold purchases by global central banks influenced by overseas central bank officials' speeches, but it is a "correction in the upward trend" rather than a "trend reversal" based on geopolitical risks, weakening dollar credit, and the start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy, buy on dips, with the reference operating range of the main contract of Shanghai Gold at 901 - 960 yuan/gram and that of Shanghai Silver at 10937 - 11690 yuan/kilogram [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold dropped 2.25% to 919.70 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver fell 2.44% to 11150.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold was reported at 4005.20 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver at 46.84 dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.01%, and the US dollar index was 98.79 [2] - The remarks of the former central bank governor of the Philippines about the large proportion of gold reserves and the internal debate on gold purchase or profit - taking led to a significant decline in gold prices and a weak performance of international silver prices [2] US Economic Data and Policy Expectations - The US CPI data in September was lower than expected, boosting the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy. There may be a lack of inflation data in November due to the government shutdown in October. The market has almost fully priced in two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Fed in the next two policy meetings [3] Strategy Suggestions - It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy for precious metals, buy on dips. The reference operating range of the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 901 - 960 yuan/gram, and that of Shanghai Silver is 10937 - 11690 yuan/kilogram. Attention should be paid to Fed Chairman Powell's statement on the subsequent monetary policy path, especially regarding the balance sheet [3] Key Data of Gold and Silver - For gold: COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) decreased by 3.15%, trading volume increased by 11.06%, and open interest increased by 2.43%. LBMA gold's closing price dropped by 3.26%. Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold's closing price decreased by 0.42%, trading volume increased by 3.58%, and open interest decreased by 0.10%. The settlement funds flowed out by 0.52%. AuT + D's trading volume increased by 0.19%, and open interest increased by 0.49% [5] - For silver: COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) decreased by 3.26%, open interest increased by 1.75%, and inventory decreased by 0.88%. LBMA silver's closing price dropped by 1.33%. SHFE silver's closing price increased by 0.55%, trading volume decreased by 12.01%, and open interest decreased by 2.44%. The settlement funds flowed out by 1.91%. AgT + D's trading volume decreased by 31.62%, and open interest increased by 1.79% [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown is expected to end this week, alleviating investor concerns and contributing to a positive outlook for major company earnings reports [1] - All three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 1.12%, S&P 500 up 1.07%, and Nasdaq up 1.37% [1] - Technology stocks were the main drivers of the rebound, with Apple’s new phone sales significantly outperforming the previous model, leading to an upgrade in its stock rating to "buy" and a closing price increase of 3.94%, reaching a record high [1] Group 2 - International gold prices surged, reaching a record intraday high due to expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and increased gold purchases by global central banks, with December gold futures closing at $4,359.4 per ounce, up 3.47% [2] Group 3 - Amazon Web Services (AWS) experienced a service outage affecting multiple companies and popular websites, but this did not impact Amazon's stock price, which rose 1.61% as investors anticipate a strong Q3 earnings report on October 30 [3] - Approximately 85% of S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings so far have exceeded expectations [3] Group 4 - International oil prices fell slightly due to concerns over oversupply, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $57.52 per barrel, down 0.03%, and Brent crude oil futures at $61.01 per barrel, down 0.46% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by multiple factors, including rising geopolitical tensions, changes in monetary policy, and increased demand from central banks [6][8]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - Spot gold prices have surged by 2.48%, closing at $4,357 per ounce, and briefly reaching $4,381, breaking the previous historical record [1]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices are nearing 1,300 yuan per gram, indicating a significant increase in consumer interest [3]. - Despite a recent drop in gold prices, a strong rebound has led to new highs, showcasing market volatility [4]. Group 2: Underlying Factors for Price Increase - The primary drivers of gold price increases include heightened risk aversion due to unstable global economic recovery, revised U.S. employment data, and concerns over potential government shutdowns [6]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut of 25 basis points in September has weakened the dollar, making gold, priced in dollars, more valuable [8]. - Global central banks are consistently increasing their gold reserves to mitigate foreign exchange risks and reduce reliance on dollar assets, providing long-term support for gold prices [8]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Rising gold prices reflect inflation and economic instability, potentially exacerbating wealth inequality as affluent individuals can invest in gold while ordinary families face currency devaluation [10]. - Increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset may limit consumer spending on other goods, leading to a decline in purchasing power and higher living costs [10]. - Long-term holding of gold may present challenges, as it does not generate interest or rental income, and sudden financial needs may require selling at fluctuating prices [10][11].

Group 1: U.S. Market and Economic Indicators - The U.S. stock market saw a collective rise on Monday, with the Dow Jones up 1.12%, S&P 500 up 1.07%, and Nasdaq up 1.37% as investor concerns eased due to potential resolution of the federal government shutdown and signs of easing global trade tensions [1] - Technology stocks were the main drivers of the rebound, with Apple’s new phone sales significantly outperforming the previous model, leading to an upgrade in its stock rating to "buy" by some brokerages, resulting in a 3.94% increase in Apple's stock price, reaching a record closing high [1] Group 2: Precious Metals and Gold Market - Gold prices surged on the 20th, reaching an intraday historical high, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and increased gold purchases by central banks globally, with December gold futures closing at $4,359.4 per ounce, marking a 3.47% increase [2] Group 3: Company-Specific Events - Amazon Web Services (AWS) experienced a service outage affecting multiple companies and popular websites, but this did not impact Amazon's stock price, which rose by 1.61% as investors anticipate a strong Q3 2025 earnings report on October 30 [2] - Approximately 85% of S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings so far have exceeded expectations during the third-quarter earnings season [2] Group 4: European Market Performance - European stock indices collectively rose on the 20th, with military stocks significantly increasing due to investor optimism about increased production in the defense sector, highlighted by a 5.9% rise in Rheinmetall [3] - The UK stock market rose by 0.52%, France by 0.39%, and Germany by 1.80% [3] Group 5: Oil Market Trends - International oil prices fell slightly due to concerns over oversupply, with futures indicating a "contango" market, where future delivery prices are higher than near-term contracts, suggesting traders are bearish on short-term demand [4] - As of the close, light crude oil futures for November settled at $57.52 per barrel, down 0.03%, while Brent crude for December settled at $61.01 per barrel, down 0.46% [4]