Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Gold price is approaching its previous high of $4381 as the non-farm payroll data is imminent. The short-term focus of the gold price is on the marginal changes in the non-farm payroll data, the US dollar, and interest rates, while it still has upward momentum in the medium term [1]. - The short-term pricing of gold focuses on the marginal changes in the non-farm payroll data, the US dollar, and interest rates, and the medium-term logic remains bullish. If the non-farm payroll data continues to confirm the weakening of the labor market, the upward space for the gold price is expected to open up again; if the data is temporarily strong, the gold price may fluctuate at a high level, but the callback space is expected to be limited. The medium-term direction of silver is still the same as that of gold, but it is more sensitive to the US dollar rebound and changes in risk appetite. It is expected to show high-level fluctuations and increased volatility in the short term, and may have a repair demand relative to gold [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - Ukrainian President Zelensky held a five-hour meeting with a US envoy in Berlin on Sunday to seek an end to the war with Russia and proposed the goal of giving up joining NATO. The negotiations are expected to continue on Monday [2]. - US President Trump said he prefers former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh or National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett to lead the Fed next year [2]. - A closely watched survey released by the Bank of Japan on Monday showed that the business sentiment index of large Japanese manufacturers reached a four-year high in the three months ended December, indicating that the Japanese economy has withstood the impact of US tariff hikes [2]. Price Logic - Gold: After the FOMC cut interest rates as expected in December, the overall tone of the meeting was dovish. The growth outlook was revised upward, the inflation path was revised downward, and sufficient reserves were maintained through short-term Treasury bond purchases. The liquidity environment still supports gold. Powell emphasized the continuous weakening of employment, so the market's expectation of subsequent easing has not completely subsided. At the same time, the "explicit + implicit" divergence within the Fed has increased, and the uncertainty of the Fed's independence has introduced a structural risk premium into the US dollar credit pricing [3]. - Silver: On the premise that the expectation of loose liquidity has not been falsified, the medium-term direction is still the same as that of gold. However, due to the large previous increase and crowded positions, it is more sensitive to the US dollar rebound and changes in risk appetite. The spot structure is still tight, but it is difficult to drive a trend market alone. In the short term, it mainly shows high-level fluctuations and increased volatility, and may have a repair demand relative to gold [3]. Outlook - In the short term, the focus range for London gold is [4150, 4500] US dollars per ounce, and for London silver is [55, 65] US dollars per ounce [3]. Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: Not provided with specific data - **Special Index**: The commodity index is 2258.84, up 0.17%; the commodity 20 index is 2585.31, unchanged; the industrial products index is 2184.69, up 0.24%; the PPI commodity index is 1354.37, down 0.35% [46]. - **Sector Index**: The precious metals index on December 15, 2025, is 3669.23, up 0.69% today, up 4.97% in the past 5 days, up 10.87% in the past month, and up 65.85% since the beginning of the year [47].