来源：新浪基金 10月11日，隔夜美股暴跌，三大指数齐挫，纳指跌近4%。导火索是特朗普凌晨发推，扬言对他国稀土 出口管制"以牙还牙"，大幅加征关税；叠加联邦政府停摆已10天、参议院一周内7次闯关临时拨款案失 败，市场担心经济衰退+贸易战火重燃。前期科技股累积大量获利盘，利空集中释放，恐慌盘倾泻而 出。避险资金推升黄金，比特币等风险资产雪崩，爆仓频现。 短线看，美股的冲击波将于下周一传导至A股、港股，尤其科技股承压；但中期逻辑未变：国内政策红 利仍在，"十四五"科技攻关、降准降息、居民储蓄搬家共同支撑慢牛；A股、港股整体估值仍低于历史 中枢，传统白马并未泡沫化；美联储已将10月降息概率押至100%，12月或再降，全球流动性宽松格局 未改。 策略上，短线可逢高减仓涨幅巨大、业绩兑现不明的科技题材股，保留底仓；中线逢调布局真正具备技 术突破、订单落地的硬核科技与新消费龙头。紧盯两条主线：中美贸易谈判进展、美国政府停摆何时收 场。风物长宜放眼量，调整不改慢牛方向。 ...

10 月 11 日，就在比特币从 117200 美元新高急跌 3.21%、17 万人爆仓 46 亿的恐慌时刻，两大国际投行突然发声力挺。 渣打银行当天上调目标价，将短期预期从 12 万美元升至 13.5 万美元，并重申 "年底必冲 20 万美元"；花旗银行更直接 "盖章"，比特币与黄金相关性已飙升 至 0.7，"数字黄金" 地位稳了，抗通胀属性将驱动价格再创新高。 一边是散户爆仓的哀嚎，一边是投行坚定的看涨宣言，币圈这波 "冰火两重天"，到底藏着什么玄机？ 渣打：机构资金进场，4000 亿就能掀翻行情 他测算，若全球养老金仅将 1%（约 4000 亿美元）配置到比特币，就能直接将价格推升至 20 万美元关口。 更关键的是，比特币 ETF 正持续吸金。10 月以来，美国现货 ETF 单日净流入多次突破 10 亿美元，叠加 MicroStrategy 等上市公司的 "扫货式" 增持，机构资 金已成为行情核心推手，这也是渣打敢喊出新高目标的核心依据。 花旗银行则从资产属性角度给出答案，通过对比近半年数据发现，比特币与黄金的价格相关性已从 0.3 升至 0.7，意味着两者 "同涨同跌" 的联动性显著增 强。"这标志着 ...

投资策略："水牛"行情延续，成长占优 主要逻辑 "水牛"行情延续，成长占优 【长江期货| 研究咨询部】 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025/10/09 研究员：彭 博 执业编号：F 投资咨询号：Z0021839 行情回顾：三季度A股市场呈现冲高震荡格局：上证指数 - 月延续涨势并刷新近十年高点后， 月转入高位盘整，围绕 点区间波动。本轮 横盘调整主要受双重因素影响：其一，前期快速上行积累的回调压力显现，在宏观经济尚未出现实质性拐点的背景下，市场存在自发修正需求；其 二，官媒针对局部估值泡沫风险发声提示，叠加投资者对后续政策节奏的观望情绪升温，导致部分资金风险偏好边际回落。整体看，成长板块的结 构性强势与传统板块的有序调整形成动态平衡，共同维系了市场在高位的运行韧性。 后市展望：展望四季度，行情上行的核心支撑逻辑未改，若无超预期利空扰动，市场在完成阶段性调整后仍具备向上拓展空间。从驱动因素看， 两大核心动能持续发力：其一，流动性宽松环境有望延续，国内低利率背景下居民与企业端的资产配置需求旺盛，叠加海外美联储开启降息周期带 来的外资回流预期，全球资金正加速向权益资产倾斜； ...

采访一位南京的老股民，他说"现在开户的年轻人多了，行情火爆得像2015年，但我心里还是怕，怕重演割韭菜"，问他为啥还不走，他笑 笑，"还不是想翻身，谁都想抓住一次机会"，这种心态，2025年写在很多投资者脸上，既期待又忐忑，像是在等一场暴雨。 饭。 数据摆在那儿，2022年到2025年，全国二线城市房价普遍跌了两成，三线城市更惨，跌三成也不稀奇，房子不再是"只涨不跌"的铁饭碗， 连最乐观的置业顾问都改口"买房要看需求"，不再灌鸡汤"买了就赚"，相反，A股在2025年上半年涨了快20%，开户量创了五年来新高， 券商APP都能卡崩好几次，监管层时不时出来发声，鼓励"长期投资"，但没人敢保证还能涨多久。 自问自答一下，为什么大家现在更信股市了，原因其实挺现实，利率下来了，存款利息买不了杯咖啡，楼市又不赚钱，钱闲着只能找出 口，有人说这叫"流动性宽松"，其实就是"钱没地方去"，股市变成了一个大水池，谁都想来捞一把，哪怕明知道风险大，也愿意赌一回毕 竟除了股市，2025年还能去哪儿呢。 另有一个点，制度确实变了，2023年起A股退市公司明显增多，垃圾股没人接盘，好公司能出头，网上都说"优胜劣汰"，但现实里，退市 名单一 ...

央行9月30日公告表示，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年10月9日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展 11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（91天）。 他分析背后的主要原因在于，10月政府债券还会较大规模发行；9月29日国家发改委宣布，当前正在加快推进5000亿新型政策性金融工 具相关工作，预计接下来会较大幅度拉动配套贷款投放；另外，当前股市强势运行，10月居民存款"搬家"现象还会比较明显。以上都会 在一定程度上带来资金面收紧效应。由此，着眼于应对潜在的流动性收紧态势，央行通过买断式逆回购向银行体系注入中期流动性，有 助于保持资金面处于较为稳定的充裕状态。这在助力政府债券发行，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度的同时，也将释放数量型政策 工具持续加力信号，显示货币政策延续支持性立场。 中信证券固定收益分析师赵诣认为，10月由于存在假期因素导致现金需求季节性抬升，叠加财政性存款同样存在季节性多增的压力，流 动性缺口可能较大；央行选择在节前公告买断式逆回购操作，也是为了释放呵护流动性宽松的政策信号。预计节后央行将择机对6个月 买断式逆回购品种进行续作，买断式逆回购工具料将维持此前 ...

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 09 月 30 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 昨日，A 股市场高位震荡，Wind 全 A 收涨 1.37%，成交额 2.18 万亿元。中 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 证 1000 指数上涨 1.36%，中证 500 指数上涨 1.51%，沪深 300 指数上涨 1.54%， 上证 50 指数上涨 1.09%。根据政治局会议通报，二十届四中全会将于 10 月 | | | | 20 日在京召开。市场需密切关注长假期间相关政策议题的发布和进展。美联 | | | | 储降息 25BP，但表态相对谨慎，其内部对于年内降息路径存在分化，权益市 | | | | 场涨跌不一，目前市场预计年内降息 3 次。国内外流动性宽松的背景以及 A | | | 股指 | 股估值抬升的逻辑并没有明显变化，预计短期波动率可能增加，长期存在继 | 偏强 | | | 续冲高的力量。自 11 月起，当政策预期尘埃落定，市场可能逐渐回归基本 | | | | 面交易，届时需关注 A 股三季报中营收同比增速是否相较二季度显著回升， | | | | 由此判 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold is expected to continue benefiting from liquidity easing and can hedge against uncertainties brought by tariffs [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 26, 2025, COMEX gold futures have risen nearly 8% in September [1] - The key drivers for this increase include concerns over European fiscal stability and the recent 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, marking the first cut in 2025 [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - The U.S. job market faces downside risks, and inflation has not exceeded expectations, suggesting further rate cuts may occur within the year [1] - Ongoing uncertainties in the global landscape, including political turmoil in Europe and Japan, have contributed to the rise in gold prices since August [1] Group 3: Tariff Impact - The recent initiation of Section 232 tariff investigations by the U.S. on specific industries adds to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies, making gold a potential hedge against volatility in risk assets like the stock market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a "high rebound and stabilization" pattern, with spot gold struggling to break the key resistance level of $3,760 per ounce, ultimately closing at $3,749.05 per ounce, a slight increase of 0.35% from the previous day [2]. Group 1: Support Factors - Central bank liquidity release provides a buffer, with the People's Bank of China conducting a 600 billion yuan one-year MLF operation, signaling a commitment to stabilize growth and indirectly lowering the cost of holding gold [3]. - The trend of central banks in emerging markets continuing to purchase gold is expected to lead to over 1,000 tons of gold bought globally in 2024, with this trend persisting into 2025, providing fundamental support for gold prices [3]. - The physical consumption market is showing resilience, with leading domestic gold retailers like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang raising prices to 1,098 yuan per gram and surpassing 1,100 yuan per gram respectively, indicating strong consumer demand despite high gold prices [4]. Group 2: Pressuring Factors - The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals are causing market fluctuations, with mixed expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts in November, leading to a short-term stabilization and rebound of the US dollar index, which suppresses upward movement in gold prices [5]. - Technical resistance is significant at the $3,760 per ounce level, which coincides with a Fibonacci retracement level since gold's rise from $3,300, compounded by selling pressure from previously trapped positions [6]. - The low level of 550,000 open contracts in COMEX gold indicates that institutional funds are adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding breaking through key price levels, lacking the momentum to push gold prices higher [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain in a strong oscillation pattern due to the interplay of bullish and bearish factors [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Hong Kong stock market, particularly technology stocks, experienced a significant drop on September 26, with Xiaomi Group's stock falling over 8% due to profit-taking by short-term investors after a product launch event [1][2][4] - Xiaomi Group's stock closed at 54.65 HKD per share, with a total trading volume of 23.35 billion HKD on the day of the drop [2] - The company's chairman, Lei Jun, emphasized the importance of self-developed chips for Xiaomi's success, committing to invest at least 50 billion RMB over the next decade [4] Group 2 - Other technology stocks in Hong Kong also declined, with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping over 3%, and notable declines in companies like Horizon Robotics and Kingsoft [6] - Morgan Stanley expressed optimism about Xiaomi's new flagship smartphone series, predicting that the sales performance could exceed expectations and maintain an "overweight" rating with a target price of 62 HKD [5] - UBS maintained a positive outlook on Chinese stocks, expecting further growth potential in the market, particularly in the technology sector [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the overseas Federal Reserve's decision, a new round of global liquidity easing is expected, opening policy space for China's reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts. In the mid - term from the fourth quarter to the first half of next year, the expected order of asset performance is equities > commodities > bonds. In the short - term of the fourth quarter, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities like gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak US dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. The value of bond allocation increases after the rise of domestic interest rates, and it should be balanced with equities in the fourth quarter. Gold has long - term strategic allocation value, and the main logic in the fourth quarter is the interest - rate cut [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: After the Federal Reserve's decision, a new round of global liquidity easing is coming, providing policy space for China's reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts. The next FOMC meeting is on October 29, and the market fully expects a 25 - bps rate cut. Attention should be paid to the US September non - farm payrolls and inflation data to be released in early - mid October. Historically, it takes about 2 - 3 months for the Fed's preventive rate cuts to impact the US real economy [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In the third quarter, China's economic growth slowed down. The funds of existing pro - growth policies are expected to be in place faster, and attention should be paid to the implementation of 500 billion yuan of financial policy tools and new directions in the "14th Five - Year Plan". Investment data in July - August slowed down significantly, especially infrastructure investment. There is a risk of insufficient infrastructure funds in the fourth quarter. However, the expected GDP growth rates in the third and fourth quarters are 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and the annual 5% target can still be achieved. If investment and exports continue to decline in September, the probability of the implementation of existing funds and incremental policies in the fourth quarter will increase [6]. - **Asset Views**: After the decisions at home and abroad, risk assets may experience a short - term adjustment. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, the global loose liquidity and economic recovery expectations driven by fiscal leverage will support risk assets. In the mid - term from the fourth quarter to the first half of next year, equities > commodities > bonds. In the short - term of the fourth quarter, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities like gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak US dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. The value of bond allocation increases after the rise of domestic interest rates, and it should be balanced with equities in the fourth quarter. Gold has long - term strategic allocation value, and the main logic in the fourth quarter is the interest - rate cut [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with the focus on the over - crowdedness of small - cap funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume declined slightly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on the insufficient liquidity in the options market [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on policy surprises, better - than - expected fundamental recovery, and tariff factors [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: In September, the US interest - rate cut cycle restarted, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence increased. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with the focus on the US fundamental performance, the Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trends [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: In the third quarter, the peak season turned to the off - season, and there is a lack of upward drivers. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on the rate of freight decline in September, the changes in the market, and policy dynamics [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The effect of "anti - involution" still exists, the steel mills' restocking is obvious, and the prices are volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, iron - water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather factors, and port ore inventory changes [7]. - **Coke**: The cost support is strong, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply is stable, and the spot price is rising. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supported by the peak - season expectation, the futures price recovers from the low level. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The peak - season expectation is positive, and the price is volatile upward. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Driven by the "anti - involution" sentiment, the spot price will rise significantly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply remains high, and the price is driven by the glass market. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on soda ash inventory [7]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper and Alumina**: There are new disturbances in copper ore supply, and the copper price is volatile upward. The alumina price is under pressure due to weak spot and inventory accumulation. The short - term judgment for copper is volatile upward and for alumina is volatile, with different focus points such as supply disturbances, domestic policies, Fed policies, and demand recovery [7]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macro risks, supply disturbances, and demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macro changes and zinc ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: The supply of recycled lead decreases, and the price is volatile upward. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with the focus on supply disturbances and battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining makes the nickel price highly volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policies, and supply [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by costs, the price rises significantly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on Indonesian policies and demand [7]. - **Tin**: The resumption of production in Wa State is slower than expected, and the price is high and volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply continues to increase, suppressing the price. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on supply reduction and photovoltaic installation [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamental driving force is weak, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on demand, supply, and new technologies [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical concerns re - emerge, and supply pressure continues. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with the focus on OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [9]. - **LPG**: The chemical demand weakens, and the price is weak. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt - fuel oil spread declines rapidly. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with the focus on sanctions and supply disturbances [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Driven by geopolitical factors, the price rises. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on geopolitics and crude oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the upward trend of crude oil. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on crude oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: Affected by olefins and port inventory, the contradiction between near - and far - term contracts is large. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: The price is under cost pressure, and there is a risk of over - reaction. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on export policies and the seventh Indian tender [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market sentiment is affected by long - term inventory accumulation. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on coal and oil prices, port inventory, and device implementation [9]. - **PX**: Due to postponed device maintenance and capacity expansion, the supply - demand situation weakens. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on crude oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand in the peak season [9]. - **PTA**: Low processing fees lead to more enterprise production cuts, but the long - term oversupply situation remains. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on crude oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand in the peak season [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: Terminal orders improve slightly, but high supply poses risks. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on downstream yarn mill purchasing and demand in the peak season [9]. - **Bottle - Chip**: There is short - term replenishment, but the medium - long - term demand recovery is uncertain. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on enterprise production cuts and terminal demand [9]. - **Propylene**: The spread with PP fluctuates between 500 - 550. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on oil prices and domestic macro factors [9]. - **PP**: There may be support near the previous low. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro factors [9]. - **Plastic**: The support from maintenance is limited, and the price declines. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro factors [9]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment improves, and attention should be paid to policy details. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics [9]. - **PVC**: With weak reality and strong expectation, the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: Driven by the expected alumina production increase, the price rebounds. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on market sentiment, production, and demand [9]. - **Oils and Fats**: The risk of price fluctuations increases, and attention should be paid to trade policies. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: After the impact of Argentine soybean exports, the price rebounds from the low level. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and trade frictions [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The arrival of raw materials at North China deep - processing plants hits a new low, and the price rebounds slightly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on demand, macro factors, and weather [9]. - **Pig**: The near - term is weak and the long - term is strong, and the reverse spread continues. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with the focus on breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Rubber**: Positions are reduced before the holiday, and a wait - and - see attitude is maintained. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price fluctuates within a range. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on crude oil price fluctuations [9]. - **Cotton**: The price continues to be weak, and attention should be paid to the purchase price. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on demand and inventory [9]. - **Sugar**: The price fluctuates at a low level. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on imports and Brazilian production [9]. - **Pulp**: The main contract of pulp is volatile, and the pressure on the 01 contract is more obvious. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macroeconomic changes and US dollar - based quotes [9]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: Downstream orders are weak, and market contradictions are not prominent. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on production and sales, education policies, and paper mill production [9]. - **Log**: The spot price is stable, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on shipment and delivery volumes [9].