1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The monetary policy will maintain its supportive stance and continue to safeguard liquidity. The central bank may shift its focus from "preventing capital idling" to "stabilizing financing" and "promoting demand," and continue to protect inter - bank liquidity. The new mention of "strengthening interest rate policy implementation and supervision to reduce bank liability costs" in the third - quarter monetary policy report may create more room for the overall decline of the bond market [4][94]. - From November to December, the market may show a narrow - range oscillatory downward trend before the loose expectation significantly boosts the bond market. Short - term liquidity disturbances have passed, and liquidity is expected to be loose within the year. The market's expectation of overall loosening may gradually rise, but it is difficult to form a "synergy" to drive the bond market down before it significantly increases. The lower limits of the yields of 30 - year and 10 - year (old bonds) treasury bonds are conservatively estimated to be around 1.9% and 1.7% respectively [2][95]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Important Matters - The central bank aims to restrict "involution - style competition" in the financial industry and maintain a reasonable profit margin. It will conduct an 800 - billion - yuan 6 - month (182 - day) buy - back repurchase operation on November 17, 2025, with a net investment of 50 billion yuan [7]. - In October 2025, the year - on - year decline in credit data was significant. From January to October, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.9 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. However, the increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 1.16 trillion yuan less year - on - year [10]. - The third - quarter monetary policy report was released on November 11, 2025. Compared with the second - quarter report, it removed the statement about "preventing capital idling" and emphasized "maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions." It also added the mention of "strengthening interest rate policy implementation and supervision to reduce bank liability costs" [4][14]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations and Fund Rate Trends - From November 10 to 14, 2025, the central bank injected 112.2 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 49.58 billion yuan due, resulting in a net injection of 62.62 billion yuan. From November 17 to 21, it is expected that 124.2 billion yuan of base currency will be withdrawn, including 112.2 billion yuan from reverse repurchase and 12 billion yuan from treasury cash deposits [19]. - Due to the tax period, the fund rate fluctuated last week. As of November 14, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.430%, 1.495%, 1.373%, and 1.467% respectively, with changes of 3.80BP, 2.68BP, 4.08BP, and 5.43BP compared to November 7 [25]. 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Volume - In the primary market, the issuance scale of inter - bank CDs last week was 710.22 billion yuan, with a maturity scale of 751.84 billion yuan and a net financing scale of - 41.62 billion yuan. As of the 46th week of 2025, the cumulative issuance scale of inter - bank CDs for the year reached 29.74 trillion yuan [30]. - The issuance rate of inter - bank CDs increased last week. The average issuance rates of 3 - month and 1 - year CDs of state - owned banks were 1.59% and 1.64% respectively, with changes of 1.75BP and 0.58BP compared to the previous week [34]. - In the secondary market, the yields of inter - bank CDs of all maturities continued to rise. The yield of 1 - month AAA - rated CDs rose 2.28BP to 1.49%, and the 1Y - 3M spread was at the 52.95% quantile level [36]. 3.3 Bond Market 3.3.1 Primary Market - Last week, the supply of discount treasury bonds and long - term and ultra - long - term treasury bonds increased. The number of interest - rate bond issuances was 96, with an actual issuance amount of 726.866 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 403.531 billion yuan. From January to November, the net financing rhythm of local government bonds was faster than that of treasury bonds. As of November 14, the cumulative net financing scale of various treasury bonds in 2025 was about 6.09 trillion yuan, and that of local bonds was about 6.67 trillion yuan [38]. - Last week, the supply scale of local bonds increased significantly. The number of treasury bond issuances was 6, with an actual issuance amount of 309.32 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 244.32 billion yuan; the number of local bond issuances was 73, with an actual issuance amount of 285.066 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 256.001 billion yuan; the number of policy - bank bond issuances was 17, with an actual issuance amount of 132.48 billion yuan and a net financing amount of - 96.79 billion yuan [45]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market - Affected by the tax period, the volatility of the fund market increased, and interest rates showed an oscillatory trend. The liquidity premium of active bonds was generally stable. The average spread between the active and sub - active bonds of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds was about - 6BP [38]. - The 10 - year - 1 - year treasury bond term spread narrowed slightly to 40.36BP, at the 30.17% quantile level since 2022; the 30 - year - 1 - year treasury bond term spread narrowed 1.59BP to 73.77BP, at the 36.60% quantile level since 2022 [61]. - The long - term local - treasury spread narrowed, while the ultra - long - term local - treasury spread widened. As of November 14, the spread between 10 - year local bonds and 10 - year treasury bonds was 15.60BP, narrowing 4.98BP compared to the previous week and at the 30.64% quantile level since 2022; the spread between 30 - year local bonds and 30 - year treasury bonds was 22.19BP, widening 2.00BP compared to the previous week and at the 73.53% quantile level since 2022 [63]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the scale of leveraged trading declined, with an average of about 7.44 trillion yuan. In the cash - bond market, the buying intensity of state - owned banks continued to weaken, with a buying scale of 46.28 billion yuan for treasury bonds within 5 years. Rural commercial banks were at the buying - selling critical point, preferring to increase holdings of treasury bonds over 5 years and 5 - 10 - year policy - bank bonds. The承接 forces of insurance and funds weakened, and their preferences for duration became more differentiated. Insurance increased its net buying of local bonds over 10 years, accounting for 92% of the net buying of interest - rate bonds, while funds mainly increased holdings of policy - bank bonds within 5 years [65][77]. - The current average position - adding cost of major trading desks is generally below 1.825% (except for funds). The position - adding costs of rural commercial banks, securities firms, funds, and other products are about 1.823%, 1.822%, 1.831%, and 1.824% respectively [65][78]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement price of rebar futures decreased 0.55% week - on - week, the settlement price of wire rod futures remained unchanged, the settlement price of cathode copper futures increased 1.27%, the cement price index increased 0.03%, and the Nanhua Glass Index decreased 5.41%. The CCFI index increased 3.39%, and the BDI index decreased 1.28%. The wholesale price of pork decreased 0.93%, and the wholesale price of vegetables decreased 0.35%. The settlement prices of Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures decreased 0.97% and 1.77% respectively. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.08 [88]. 3.6 Future Outlook - The monetary policy will maintain its supportive stance and continue to safeguard liquidity. The central bank may shift its focus to "stabilizing financing" and "promoting demand," and continue to protect inter - bank liquidity. The new mention of reducing bank liability costs may create more room for the bond market to decline. The weakening financial data in October also indicates the necessity of maintaining a supportive monetary policy [94]. - From November to December, the market may show a narrow - range oscillatory downward trend before the loose expectation significantly boosts the bond market. Short - term liquidity disturbances have passed, and liquidity is expected to be loose within the year. The market's expectation of overall loosening may gradually rise, but it is difficult to form a "synergy" to drive the bond market down before it significantly increases. The lower limits of the yields of 30 - year and 10 - year (old bonds) treasury bonds are conservatively estimated to be around 1.9% and 1.7% respectively [2][95].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 800 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on November 17, with a six-month term, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [1] - In November, there will be a net increase of 500 billion yuan in reverse repos, marking a 100 billion yuan increase compared to the previous month, indicating a continuous expansion for two months [1] - The PBOC has injected medium-term liquidity into the market through reverse repos for six consecutive months [1] Group 2 - The issuance of 500 billion yuan in local government bonds is expected to increase significantly in November, which will tighten liquidity in the banking system, necessitating support from the PBOC [2] - The PBOC's monetary policy report emphasizes maintaining ample liquidity and creating a suitable monetary financial environment, reflecting a policy intention to support liquidity [2] - The market anticipates a slight increase in the MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) as 900 billion yuan is set to mature in November, with expectations for the PBOC to continue injecting medium-term liquidity [2][3]

这将是央行本月第二次开展买断式逆回购操作。11月5日，央行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展7000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月 （91天）。 【导读】央行将开展8000亿元买断式逆回购操作 11月14日，央行发布公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年11月17日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展8000亿元买 断式逆回购操作，期限为6个月（182天）。 | 中国人民银行 | | | | | 货币政策司 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | | | | Monetary Policy Department | | | | | | | 货币政策 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融稳定 | 调查统计 | 银行会计 | 支付体系 | | 信息公开 | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招录 | 学术交流 | 征信管理 ...

本轮A股的底层逻辑是产业跨越式发展带动的中国科技股及中国资产的价值重估。年初由deepseek引领 了一轮科技股的上涨行情，这也让全球产业界及投资者看到中国人工智能发展的真实水平。继而也带动 人工智能相关产业链公司的上涨，尤其是半导体行业，相关个股涨势凶猛。 其次就是流动性宽松驱动的。流动性宽松及利率下降是股市上涨的重要推手之一，基本上每轮牛市都是 在这样的背景下产生的。最近几个月，美联储已经连续降息2次了，而美联储开启降息周期，意味着一 轮全球性的流动性宽松或将正在到来。 今天沪指一路高歌猛进，涨了0.73%，收于4029.5点，刷新了十年的新高。 真是让人感慨万分。10年弹指间就过了，上证指数再创新高，投资真是一个很漫长的过程，不奉行长期 主义是很难坚持下去的。 今天的行情可以说是权重股和题材股都有所表现，带动指数全线上涨。全市共有3953家公司是上涨的， 赚钱效应不错。 行情走到今天，应该说牛市已经非常清晰了。时隔10年后，A股有望再次走出大牛市，甚至长牛市。 今年以来， A股单日成交额基本上都是在2万亿以上，表现非常强势，资金面活跃度很高，做多情绪比 较浓。三大指数更是一路走高，创新十年新高，尤其是上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of small and micro-cap stocks remains strong amid market fluctuations, driven by liquidity and value recovery, with several funds achieving historical net asset value highs [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI 2000 and National 2000 indices, representing small-cap stocks, have been hovering at high levels, with the CSI 2000 index closing at 3141 points as of November 12, nearing a ten-year high [2]. - Funds focusing on small and micro-cap stocks, such as Nuon Fund and CITIC Prudential, have shown strong performance in Q4, with respective gains of 9.34%, 6.24%, and 8.99% [2]. - The average market capitalization of the top holdings in these funds is typically in the tens of millions, significantly lower than large-cap stocks [2]. Group 2: Liquidity and Investment Strategy - The current market liquidity is considered a fundamental reason for the strong performance of small and micro-cap stocks, as these stocks are more sensitive to capital flows [4]. - Fund managers suggest that investors are increasingly favoring high-elasticity stocks, with small micro-cap stocks often exhibiting greater price volatility [3][5]. - The liquidity environment is expected to remain supportive for small-cap styles, with a decrease in market leverage levels contributing to a more stable risk profile [4]. Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Despite the strong performance, there are concerns regarding the liquidity of small and micro-cap stocks, which can lead to difficulties in trading and price volatility [6][7]. - Fund managers caution that the crowded nature of small-cap stocks may lead to wider bid-ask spreads and challenges in liquidating positions during market corrections [6][7]. - The low trading activity and insufficient depth in buy-sell orders for micro-cap stocks necessitate careful liquidity management during trading [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of small and micro-cap stocks in the current market, driven by liquidity easing and value recovery of certain stocks, while also noting the risks associated with trading liquidity and market adjustments [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI 2000 and Guozheng 2000 indices, representing small-cap stocks, have remained at high levels, with the CSI 2000 index closing at 3141 points as of November 12, nearing a ten-year high [3]. - Several funds focusing on small and micro-cap stocks, such as Nuon Fund and CITIC Prudential, have seen their net values reach historical highs, with quarterly gains of 9.34%, 6.24%, 1.41%, and 8.99% respectively [3]. Group 2: Liquidity Factors - The article emphasizes that the current strong performance of micro-cap stocks is primarily due to abundant liquidity, which allows for greater price volatility in these stocks [6][7]. - The easing liquidity environment not only attracts funds to micro-cap stocks but also alleviates financing constraints for small enterprises, improving profit expectations [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are increasingly favoring high-elasticity stocks, with micro-cap stocks often showing stronger potential for price recovery after market adjustments [4][9]. - The article suggests that in a market where large-cap stocks are over-traded, funds may shift towards undervalued micro-cap stocks, seeking opportunities for marginal improvements [9]. Group 4: Risks and Cautions - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns regarding the trading activity and liquidity of micro-cap stocks, which may lead to difficulties in executing trades and widening bid-ask spreads during market corrections [1][10]. - The low liquidity characteristic of micro-cap stocks poses challenges for large-scale operations and necessitates careful liquidity management during trading [10].

黄金行情： 近期黄金与白银短期技术形态完成明确看涨转向，均线多头排列配合量能突破，吸引大量技术型投机者 涌入多头阵营。这一趋势与宏观利好形成共振：美国政府重启消除政策不确定性，避险情绪与流动性宽 松预期提振贵金属估值；美国经济数据发布恢复，为美联储12月降息研判提供依据，若数据温和降温， 将进一步巩固宽松预期，助力金银涨势。不过，市场狂热背后需警惕分歧：若涨势纯由通胀驱动，通胀 黏性超预期可能导致美联储推迟降息，风险资产或迎深度调整；若2026年"关税通胀"叙事降温，黄金抗 通胀溢价削弱，涨势可能阶段性休整，届时风险资产有望喘息，而流动性宽松背景下黄金与股市仍可能 并行上涨。 昨日黄金延续拉升节奏，呈现"探底回升+破位加速"特征。早盘开于4127.8，冲高至4146.2后快速回落， 日线最低触及4098.8（测试前期震荡区间上沿支撑，形成企稳信号），随后多头反攻突破前日高点，量 能放大推动行情加速上行，最高触及4212.3后整理，最终收于4195.2，以一根下影线长于上影线的大阳 线报收，彰显多头动能强劲。 力）；关键支撑：下方关注4150-4125一线（4150为颈线位与5日均线共振，4125为10日均线与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of small and micro-cap stocks in the current market, driven by liquidity easing and value recovery of certain stocks, with indices like the CSI 2000 and National 2000 remaining at high levels [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI 2000 index was reported at 3141 points as of November 12, nearing a ten-year high, indicating robust performance in the small-cap sector [3]. - Several funds focusing on small and micro-cap stocks, such as Nuon Fund and CITIC Prudential, have seen significant net value increases, with quarterly gains of 9.34%, 6.24%, 1.41%, and 8.99% respectively [3]. - The average market capitalization of the top holdings in these funds is around several hundred million, significantly lower than large-cap stocks, which are in the billion range [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are increasingly favoring high-elasticity stocks, with micro-cap stocks showing greater potential for price movement due to their smaller market size and higher free float [4][5]. - The current market environment is characterized by a shift in funding structure, with lower leverage levels compared to early 2024, making the market less prone to large fluctuations [6]. - Micro-cap strategies are seen as a way to capture excess returns due to the inefficiencies in pricing, as these stocks are often less covered by analysts and can be mispriced [6]. Group 3: Liquidity Factors - The article emphasizes that the current liquidity environment is favorable for small and micro-cap stocks, as increased social financing and M2 growth lead to more funds flowing into these stocks for higher returns [5][6]. - The low liquidity characteristic of micro-cap stocks poses challenges, such as difficulties in executing large trades and managing liquidity effectively [8]. - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns about the stability of trading activity and the ability to execute trades without significant price impact, especially during market corrections [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices continue to rise, with spot gold surpassing $4,140 per ounce, marking an increase of over 3% this week [1][3]. Price Movements - Domestic gold jewelry prices have significantly increased by nearly 30 CNY per gram compared to yesterday, with some prices exceeding 1,300 CNY per gram, reaching new highs [3][5]. - Specific prices for gold jewelry include: Chow Tai Fook, Chow Sang Sang, and Chow Tai Sheng at 1,308 CNY per gram, while Lao Feng Xiang and Lao Miao gold jewelry are priced at 1,310 CNY per gram [5]. Market Dynamics - The high gold prices, combined with tax impacts, are expected to negatively affect gold sales, leading to an increase in gold exchange and remelting businesses [9]. - A local gold shop owner noted a rise in customers exchanging old jewelry for new pieces, indicating a shift in consumer behavior due to high gold prices [11][12]. Future Outlook - Since reaching a historical high of $4,380 per ounce in mid-October, gold has decreased by approximately 6%, but remains up over 56% for the year [14]. - Analysts suggest that the ongoing rise in gold prices is driven by a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions, with expectations for continued growth in the coming year [14]. - Morgan Stanley predicts gold prices could reach $5,200 to $5,300 by the end of 2026, while Goldman Sachs has a more conservative estimate of $4,900 [16]. - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in gold reserves, continuing a trend of accumulation for the 12th consecutive month [16]. - The World Gold Council's report indicates that global central banks accelerated gold purchases in Q3, with a net purchase of 220 tons, reflecting a 28% increase from Q2 and a 10% year-on-year growth [16].

金价拉升。 11月10日午后，贵金属市场大幅拉升走高，黄金期现涨幅均超过2%，白银期货涨幅一度超过4%，其他 贵金属亦不同程度走高。截至发稿，伦敦金现涨2.51%，报4101.06美元/盎司；COMEX黄金涨2.59%， 报4113.5美元/盎司；伦敦银现涨3.5%，报50.018美元/盎司，COMEX白银涨3.99%，报50.065美元/盎 司；现货铂金涨2.59%，NYMEX铂涨2.79%；现货钯金涨3.14%，NYMEX钯涨2.27%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 伦敦全现 | 4101.060 | 100.350 | 2.51% | | 伦敦银现 | 50.018 | 1.692 | 3.50% | | COMEX黄金 | 4113.5 d | 103.7 | 2.59% | | COMEX白银 | 50.065 d | 1.922 | 3.99% | | 伦敦金(人民币/克) | 938.6415 | 22.9679 | 2.51% | | 伦敦银(人民币/千克) | 11448.0088 | 387.2612 | 3.50% ...