Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have increased, with short-term pressures expected, but the long-term investment logic remains unchanged [1] Group 1: Market Trends - As of October 21, the Shanghai Gold ETF has seen a net inflow of over 900 million yuan in the past eight trading days, bringing its total scale to over 3.8 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume exceeding 300 million yuan in October [1] - The volatility of gold prices has significantly increased due to various unexpected events, leading to a potential cooling of market enthusiasm in the short term [1] Group 2: Expert Insights - According to Guangfa Fund manager Yao Xi, while international gold prices have reached new highs, the underlying fundamentals for gold prices have not changed in the long term [1] - Factors such as excessive debt issuance and the trend of de-globalization are contributing to a decline in the credibility of the US dollar, making gold a crucial asset for hedging against dollar credit risk [1] - The ongoing trend of global central banks purchasing gold suggests that the long-term performance of gold prices may be worth monitoring [1]

最近不少朋友拿着手机问我，帮主，黄金咋突然跌出3800美元大关了？前几天还喊着冲4000呢，这是不是牛市要完了？别急，咱们今天就掰开揉碎了说说， 毕竟我做了20年财经记者，跟市场打交道这么久，最懂大家这会儿的心情。 但咱们做中长线投资的，不能光盯着短期波动。我这20年跟市场打交道的经验告诉你，判断黄金趋势得看大方向。现在支撑黄金的核心逻辑没变啊。各国央 行还在不停买黄金，这几年累计购金都超3500吨了，这可是实打实的需求托底，本质上是大家都想靠黄金对冲美元信用的风险。而且国际上的冲突也没停， 旧的没解决新的又冒出来，"战时黄金"的硬通货属性摆这儿呢。 再说机构们也没慌，瑞银就说这波回调可能是更强反弹的前奏，任何进一步下跌都该当成建仓机会。想想也是，美联储只是推迟降息，不是不降息，6月都 要开始放缓缩表了，等美元和美债收益率回落，黄金肯定会有反应。还有个长期逻辑更关键，现在美元的结算和储备霸权都在慢慢弱化，黄金正在从短期避 险工具变成长期的"信用标尺"，这才是牛市的根本底气。 所以总结下，黄金跌穿3800，更像是牛市里的一次"深呼吸"。短期的情绪和政策波动会带来震荡，但长期的支撑还在。咱们不用盯着每天的涨跌，盯 ...