A股马年首个交易日迎来开门红！三大指数集体上涨，沪指涨1.17%报4129.78点，深证成指涨1.82%， 创业板指涨1.76%。沪深京三市半日成交额15210亿元，较上日放量3074亿元，全市场超4200只个股上 涨。盘面上，地缘冲突、美国关税政策不确定性再度引发市场担忧，黄金概念股走强，其中，晓程科技 涨超14%，白银有色、湖南白银涨停，四川黄金、中国黄金涨超8%。 瑞银预计，在更强劲的投资流动和各国央行持续购买的推动下，金价将进一步上涨。供应方面，增长似 乎受限。虽然金价高企可能激励勘探活动，但咨询公司伍德麦肯兹估计，到2028年，约有80座矿山将耗 尽当前的生产计划，这表明短期内供应弹性有限。 整个春节假期贵金属遭遇美国经济数据、全球地缘风险以及美国政局、三重冲击。首先，美国经济数据 喜忧参半：1月份CPI同比上涨2.4%，虽然较2025年底略有回落，但核心CPI仍维持在2.5%。2月份的数 据显示，由于关税政策开始实施，耐用品价格出现了明显的脉冲式上涨。受到关税预期的影响，消费者 在1月份出现了一波"抢购潮"，导致12月和1月的数据波动剧烈。但2月初的数据显示，零售销售增长开 始放缓，反映出高物价对 ...

Group 1 - The central bank's gold reserves increased to 74.19 million ounces at the end of January, marking a rise of 40,000 ounces from the previous month, continuing a 15-month streak of increases since November 2024 [1] - Global investors are increasingly allocating funds to physical gold-related ETFs, with North America and Asia leading in demand, and North America achieving the second-highest monthly net inflow in history [1] - The Shanghai Gold ETF (518600) has seen net buying for three consecutive trading days from February 4 to February 6, indicating high market interest in gold-related investments [1] Group 2 - Long-term outlook for gold is positive due to global concerns over debt and currency, with the U.S. national debt surpassing $38.5 trillion and expected fiscal deficits remaining high [2] - Investors are encouraged to view gold as a strategic asset for portfolio diversification, risk mitigation, and enhancing liquidity amid geopolitical uncertainties [2] - It is recommended that investors allocate about 10% of their asset portfolio to gold to hedge against future uncertainties in the current volatile global economic environment [2]

上海金ETF（159830）紧密跟踪上海金指数，该ETF还配备了2只场外联接基金（A类：014661；C 类：014662）。 消息面上，中国央行已连续15个月增持黄金储备，1月末报7419万盎司，持续释放战略配置信号。 同时，据世界黄金协会调研，全球超九成央行预计未来一年将继续增持黄金，购金潮形成结构性支撑。 此外，联储证券指出，近期地缘政治风险升温，包括美伊对抗加剧、美欧贸易摩擦重启等事件，持续推 升市场避险情绪，进一步利好金价表现。 华泰证券认为，美元信用下降正推动全球资产再配置，央行持续购金将成金价长期基石。若黄金在 金融资产中配置比例升至4.3-4.8%，2028年金价有望达6800美元/盎司，中长期牛市逻辑稳固。 2月9日，国际金价重返5000美元整数关口。 每日经济新闻 得关注的是，Wind显示，上海金ETF（159830）近3个交易日（2026年02月04日—2026年02月06 日）实现连续"吸金"，最近30个交易日累计获资金净流入7.67亿元。截至2026年02月06日，该基金最新 规模为34.36亿元，为深市同标的第一。 （责任编辑：贺翀 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold has surpassed the $5000 per ounce mark, reaching as high as $5040 per ounce, driven by an increase in China's gold reserves and positive market sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Reserves and Market Trends - As of the end of January 2026, China's gold reserves stood at 74.19 million ounces, an increase of 40,000 ounces from December 2025 [1]. - The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves since November 2024, maintaining this trend for 15 consecutive months [1]. - The World Gold Council predicts that the current upward trend in gold prices will remain stable throughout the remainder of 2026 [4]. Group 2: Institutional Predictions and Investment Sentiment - Several financial institutions, including CITIC Securities, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Bank of America, have forecasted that gold prices could reach $6000 per ounce or higher in 2026 [4]. - Analysts from Galaxy Securities suggest that metal assets may continue to experience volatility, with a focus on the U.S. January CPI data to assess inflation persistence and adjust Federal Reserve policy expectations [5]. - Huatai Securities emphasizes that gold will remain an irreplaceable asset for value preservation, recommending a strategy of buying on dips due to ongoing dollar asset replacement logic and risk premiums [5]. Group 3: ETF Performance and Investment Opportunities - As of February 9, 2026, the Shanghai Gold ETF (518600) has risen by 2.81%, with a cumulative increase of 8.93% over the past month [5]. - The Shanghai Gold ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a peak single-day net inflow of 177 million yuan, totaling 428 million yuan over three days [5]. - The Shanghai Gold ETF serves as a convenient investment tool for investors looking to hedge against rising gold jewelry prices [5].

中长期的新驱动力：去美元化与央行购金。非美国家持有的黄金价值已超过美债价值，显示出对美元信 用的不信任的共识已经形成。非美央行正在加速购金以替代外汇储备。由于金矿开采存在供给刚性，央 行的大规模购金（数万吨）势必会挤压私人投资盘，引发实物短缺，助推中长期黄金价格的持续上行， 8000可期 黄金ETF锚定实物黄金，其底层资产为上海黄金交易所的黄金现货合约，直接反映黄金价格波动，支持 T+0交易。 金ETF密切跟踪上海黄金交易所黄金现货实盘合约价格，透明度高而且流动性好，支持T+0日内交易。 华鑫证券表示，黄金传统研究框架对本轮黄金大涨的解释力十分有限，主要是短期美元指数走低和中长 期美元信用替代逻辑的叠加，市场情绪和动量资金驱动。随着美元信用裂缝的扩大，黄金中长期上涨的 逻辑在强化。但由于长期逻辑短期化交易较为极致，黄金投资盘多头回落、实业盘空头较低，PCR处于 历史底部，短期黄金市场"裸多"风险值得警惕。特别是在白银"空头拥挤+高波动率+高持仓"的背景下， 白银高位回落拖累黄金的概率在提升。 传统框架崩塌：过去美元、实际利率和风险定价的黄金研究框架解释力显著减弱。非框架因素解释贡献 再度创新高。从大宗商品联动 ...

费率方面，上海金ETF（159830）管理费率0.25%，基金托管费率为0.05%，均低于同标的产品平均水 平，同时该ETF支持T+0交易。该ETF还配置了场外联接基金（联接A：014661，联接C：014662）。 消息面上，据智通财经，国际金价的反弹直接传导至国内终端市场。2月4日，国内多家黄金珠宝品牌当 日公布的境内足金首饰价格有所上调，周生生报价1600元/克，较前一日1498元/克涨102元；周大福报 价1566元/克，较前一日1495元/克涨71元；老凤祥报价1576元/克，较前一日1518元/克涨58元；老庙黄 金报价1571元/克。 国泰海通证券表示，黄金长期行情仍有支撑。本轮贵金属价格的大幅下跌是对年初以来非理性上涨的技 术性调整，而非黄金长期牛市的终结。短期来看，前期过热投机情绪的降温，以及资金杠杆水平的下降 有助于黄金重回更健康与稳健的上涨趋势。长期来看，在各国信任程度下降的情况下，全球仍在经历持 续的货币体系重构，央行购金仍有较大空间，黄金长期的行情仍然会延续。 2月4日，COMEX黄金期货盘中重回5100美元/盎司关口。 相关ETF方面，上海金ETF（159830）截至发稿成交额超2 ...

来源：智通财经 2月3日早盘，现货黄金高位回调后回到4800美元/盎司，日内涨超3%。上周沃什被提名为下任美联储负 责人，其历史言论偏向"降息+缩表"组合，导致市场对货币政策紧缩的担忧升温，市场担忧其上台后将 推动美元走强、压制黄金，引发多头踩踏与高杠杆资金撤离。 截至2026年2月3日 09:42，上海金ETF(518600)上涨3.90%。拉长时间看，截至2026年2月2日，上海金 ETF近1月累计上涨6.97%。份额方面，截至2026年2月2日，上海金ETF最新份额达6.77亿份，创成立以 来新高！从资金净流入方面来看，上海金ETF近10天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得4.65亿元净流 入，合计"吸金"17.57亿元。 上海金ETF(518600)，场外联接(A类：008986；C类：008987)，业绩比较基准为上海黄金交易所上海金 集中定价合约。该基金紧跟金价、支持T+0交易，可谓黄金便捷投资利器；投资者可借道上海金ETF对 冲金饰价格上涨。 长期看，市场对美联储降息路径的预期并未根本扭转，CME FedWatch数据显示全年降息两次的预期依 然稳定。区域政治方面，国际紧张局势不断扰动市场，推升避 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that gold prices have rebounded, with spot gold surpassing $4800 per ounce and domestic gold jewelry prices showing a slight increase [1][2] - Gold ETFs, including Shanghai Gold ETF, have risen over 3%, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 10% [2] - Morgan Stanley analysts predict a sustained upward momentum for gold prices, forecasting that gold could reach $6300 per ounce by the end of 2026 due to strong demand from central banks and investors [4] Group 2 - Citigroup has significantly lowered its long-term gold price expectations, warning that in a bear market scenario, gold prices could drop to $3000 per ounce [4][5] - Factors supporting current high gold prices, such as geopolitical tensions and economic conditions, are expected to diminish later this year, leading to a potential decline in gold prices starting in 2026 [5] - The new Federal Reserve chair's policies and the decline in tech stocks are putting pressure on precious metal prices, while central bank gold purchases and ETF holdings are expected to support gold prices in the long term [6]

现货黄金冲上5500美元/盎司！ 来源：都市时报 涨疯了！ 黄金白银不断刷新历史新高！ | | | | 伦敦金现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | AUUSDO 圆 | | | | 5490.410 | | | 5494.720 | 卧库收 | 5171.240 | | | | 低 | 5156.550 | 买价 | 5490.410 | | 319.170 6.17% | | 开 | 5171.240 | 卖价 | 5493.520 | | 同花顺黄金 2 | | | 银行金价 1187.24 4.48% > | | | | 相关 ETF 2 | | | | T+0 上海金ETF 3.25% > | | | 分时 日K | 月K | 園K | 五日 | 重多△ | | | 均线▼ | 日线 M5:5129.366 M10:4907.008 | | | | 筹码 前复权 | | M60:4380.170 | M20:4695.853 M30:4602.710 | | | | | | 2263.612 | | | | | 5494.720 | ...

Group 1: Market Performance - Spot gold has surged to a record high of $5500 per ounce, marking a 1.74% increase in a single day [1] - Spot silver has also reached a historical peak of $118 per ounce, with a daily rise of 1.12% [1] - Following the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates between 3.50% and 3.75%, gold and silver prices experienced significant increases, with gold briefly surpassing $5450 and reaching a high of $5496 [3] Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The Shanghai Gold Exchange announced an increase in the margin requirement for silver deferred contracts from 19% to 20%, effective January 30, 2026, along with an adjustment in the price fluctuation limit from 18% to 19% [4] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange also updated its margin requirements and price fluctuation limits for various futures contracts, including gold and silver, effective January 30, 2026 [6] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts indicate that while gold prices are currently supported by factors such as a weak dollar and geopolitical uncertainties, there is a rising risk of long-term consolidation rather than an imminent sharp correction [8][10] - Concerns regarding fiscal debt expansion, a weakening dollar, and geopolitical tensions are driving gold prices higher, but many of these concerns have not yet materialized into severe market reactions [9]