平安证券表示，短期来看，降息预期或为金价锚定的核心驱动，预期抬升有望推动黄金偏强运行。中长 期看，海外宏观不确定性持续，黄金避险属性仍处于放大阶段，金价中枢预计仍将持续抬升。 （本文机构观点来自持牌证券机构，不构成任何投资建议，亦不代表平台观点，请投资人独立判断和决 策。） （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 8月4日午后，上海金ETF（159830）早盘高开，现涨1.20%。值得注意的是，Wind数据显示，截至8月1 日收盘，上海金ETF（159830）年内涨幅达24.29%，居同标的产品第一。 上海金ETF（159830）紧密跟踪上海金（SHAU.SGE）；费率方面，上海金ETF（159830）管理费率 0.25%，基金托管费率为0.05%，均低于同标的产品平均水平，同时该ETF支持T+0交易。该ETF还配置 了场外联接基金（联接A：014661，联接C：014662）。 消息面上，据智通财经，花旗上调未来0-3个月黄金价格预测至3500美元/盎司，此前为3300美元/盎司； 上调未来三个月黄金价格预期区间至每盎司3300-3600美元，此前预期为每盎司3100-3500美元。 银河期货认为，短期避险情绪推升 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in gold prices over the past few years, with a cumulative increase of approximately 13% in 2023 and nearly 30% in 2024, leading to a peak price around 3000 USD, which has doubled the cost basis for many investors, particularly the "Chinese aunties" who bought gold years ago [3][6][10] - The article discusses the historical context of gold price fluctuations, noting a bear market from late 2013 to late 2019, where prices ranged between 1045 USD and 1500 USD, and how the Federal Reserve's monetary policies, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, have influenced gold prices [7][8] - It emphasizes the dynamic relationship between U.S. inflation expectations and Federal Reserve monetary policy, indicating that a potential interest rate cut could further increase gold's attractiveness as an investment [8][9] Group 2 - The article outlines the strong demand for gold, driven by both consumer and central bank purchases, with central banks significantly increasing their gold reserves as a hedge against economic instability and currency depreciation [10][12] - It provides insights into the various channels for investing in gold, recommending gold ETFs as a preferred method due to their lower transaction costs, better liquidity, and reduced risk compared to physical gold or futures contracts [12][15][22] - The article compares traditional gold ETFs with Shanghai Gold ETFs, highlighting the latter's advantages in terms of tracking accuracy, lower costs, and broader investment options, making them a more attractive choice for investors [17][20][21]

Core Insights - The global capital markets in the first half of 2025 present significant structural opportunities, with exchange-traded funds (ETFs) becoming the core tool for capital allocation due to their efficiency [1][5] - The pharmaceutical and gold-themed ETFs dominated the performance rankings, with the Huatai-PineBridge Hong Kong Innovation Drug ETF (159570) leading with a return of 58.77% [1][2] ETF Performance - All top 20 ETFs in terms of returns for the first half of 2025 were from the pharmaceutical and gold themes, with a minimum return threshold of 38% [1][2] - The top three performing ETFs were all pharmaceutical-themed: - Huatai-PineBridge Hong Kong Innovation Drug ETF (159570) at 58.77% - Silver华港股创新药ETF (159567) at 58.01% - 万家港股创新药ETF (520700) at 57.13% [2] - The gold-themed ETFs ranked 18th to 20th, with returns of 38.66%, 38.57%, and 38.26% respectively, benefiting from rising gold prices and increased risk aversion [1][2] Market Trends - The strong performance of innovation drug ETFs is attributed to breakthroughs in global biopharmaceutical technology and a favorable policy environment [1][3] - The trading volume for domestic innovative drug overseas licensing reached $40.4 billion in 2024, a 54% year-on-year increase, indicating a shift towards "global innovation" in the industry [1][3] ETF Classification - Despite the overall high performance of innovation drug ETFs, there was significant internal differentiation, with the top 17 pharmaceutical ETFs underperforming their benchmarks by an average of about 3 percentage points [3] - The gold ETFs' value is supported by multiple factors, including an 18.2% increase in COMEX gold prices and a record high of 1,136 tons in gold purchases by global central banks in 2024 [3][4] New Fund Performance - Among the top 10 ETFs that exceeded benchmark returns, half were newly established products in 2025, showcasing their ability to quickly capture market opportunities [3][4] - The 永赢港股医疗ETF (159366) achieved a 17.26% excess return, reflecting its timely entry into the market [4] Market Overview - As of mid-2025, the total scale of domestic ETFs surpassed 4.3 trillion yuan, indicating the growing strategic importance of passive investment tools in asset allocation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing explosive growth in the first half of 2025, driven by escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, with COMEX gold prices surpassing $3,450 per ounce, leading to a significant increase in gold ETFs as a prominent investment choice [1][3]. Market Performance - As of June 16, 2025, gold and gold stock indices have risen in tandem due to heightened tensions in the Middle East, with several ETFs tracking the SSH gold stock index showing weekly gains exceeding 7% [2]. - Year-to-date, the overall market for gold ETFs has seen an increase of 124.66%, with total market size growing from 72.608 billion yuan to 163.12 billion yuan, reflecting a robust demand for gold-related investments [1][3]. - The number of gold ETF shares has increased by 10.5 billion this year, with market size surging by 90.5 billion yuan [2]. Underlying Factors - The U.S. debt crisis has intensified concerns about the sustainability of U.S. Treasury bonds, with the fiscal gap reaching $316 billion in May 2025 and a 14% year-on-year increase in annual deficits [4]. - Central banks globally are accelerating de-dollarization, with gold purchases reaching a record high in 2024, totaling 520 tons from January to May 2025, with China, India, and Turkey leading the increases [4]. - The Federal Reserve's shift in policy, including a projected 100 basis points rate cut in 2025, has historically correlated with an average gold price increase of 22% during such cycles [4]. Investment Opportunities - Gold mining stocks are showing high earnings elasticity, with companies like Zijin Mining seeing significant EPS increases with rising gold prices [5]. - The high-end gold jewelry market in China is growing at a rate of 35%, with online sales accounting for 32% of total sales, indicating a structural change in consumer behavior [5]. - Different types of gold ETFs cater to varying risk-return profiles, with physical gold ETFs suitable for hedging against inflation and gold stock ETFs offering higher potential returns [5]. Future Outlook - The short-term outlook for gold prices is primarily driven by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, while medium-term support is expected from U.S. debt issues and central bank gold purchases [5]. - The ongoing trend of de-dollarization is likely to enhance gold's position in asset allocation over the long term, reflecting a broader transformation in global monetary systems and investment logic [5].

Market Performance - The A-share market saw significant gains in the oil and natural gas sector, with notable stocks such as Keli Co. rising by 26%, Tongyuan Petroleum hitting the daily limit, and potential gains in other companies like Huaneng Gas and Beiken Energy [1] - Gold-related stocks also performed well, with Cuihua Jewelry reaching the daily limit and West Gold nearing the limit, alongside other companies showing gains [1] ETF Performance - Major ETFs in the oil and gas sector experienced substantial increases, with the Jiashi Fund's S&P Oil & Gas ETF rising by 7.68% and the Fuguo Fund's version increasing by 7.45% [3] - Other ETFs, including the Energy Chemical ETF and Oil & Gas Resource ETF, also showed positive performance, indicating strong investor interest in these sectors [3] Geopolitical Impact - The geopolitical situation escalated with Israel's attacks on Iran, leading to a significant rise in international oil prices, with Brent crude increasing over 9% to $75.76 per barrel, marking a new high since April [5] - Gold prices also surged, with spot gold rising by 1.5% to over $3430 per ounce, the highest since May [5] Oil and Gold Market Dynamics - The Israeli military's actions against Iran are expected to sustain demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, while rising geopolitical tensions are likely to keep oil prices strong [7] - The recent increase in oil prices is attributed to heightened geopolitical risks and concerns over oil production safety in the Middle East [7] ETF Composition and Characteristics - The S&P Oil & Gas ETF tracks the S&P Oil & Gas Upstream Stocks Total Return Index, which includes a diverse range of companies primarily focused on upstream oil and gas development [9][11] - The index consists of 53 components, employing an equal-weighted methodology that favors smaller companies, thus presenting a higher risk-reward profile compared to market-cap weighted indices [11]

6月12日，美国劳工统计局发布的PPI数据保持温和态势，关税政策对美国物价影响尚未显现。此外，美 国上周失业人数继续维持高位。由于物价保持稳定而失业数据维持高位，市场开始押注美联储年内降息 的次数。6月13日，以色列空袭伊朗，中东局势骤然紧张，避险情绪带动黄金价格上涨。现货黄金涨幅 扩大至1%，刷新5月7日以来新高至3436美元/盎司。 高盛集团最新报告指出，受区域政治风险与货币体系重构影响，现货黄金价格预计2025年年底将达3700 美元/盎司，2026年年中进一步攀升至4000美元/盎司。 有业内人士认为，此前美国公布5月财政缺口3160亿美元，年度缺口同比增长14%，进一步陷入赤字， 推动金价上涨。随着美元信用体系弱化逐步成为市场共识，叠加区域局势反复，黄金作为秩序的反面仍 将延续过去几年的交易主线，全球央行持续购金、美元信用体系的衰退、以及美联储的降息将继续推动 金价向上的趋势不变。 上海金ETF(518600)，场外联接(A类：008986；C类：008987)，该基金不涉及实物黄金交割，保管成本 更低、支持T+0交易，是方便快捷的黄金投资利器。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that rising risk aversion is driving gold prices higher, with the Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) seeing significant inflows and a current scale of 1.427 billion yuan, making it the top product in the Shenzhen market [1] - The Shanghai Gold ETF closely tracks Shanghai gold (SHAU.SGE) and has lower management and custody fees compared to similar products, with a management fee of 0.25% and a custody fee of 0.05% [1] - Global markets are experiencing heightened risk aversion, with gold prices reaching a new high of 3,436 USD/ounce, reflecting a 1% increase [1] Group 2 - Recent volatility in gold prices is seen as a reflection of the restructuring of the global monetary system, with driving factors shifting from inflation expectations to sovereign credit risk and global system stability [2] - The U.S. trade policy and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are expected to influence gold price fluctuations, with potential for prices to exceed 3,500 USD if risks escalate [2] - The U.S. administration's approach to tariffs and ongoing tensions in the Middle East, including potential military actions against Iran, are contributing to the uncertainty in the market [2]

上海金ETF（159830）紧密跟踪上海金（SHAU.SGE）；费率方面，上海金ETF（159830）管理费率 0.25%，基金托管费率为0.05%，均低于同标的产品平均水平，同时该ETF支持T+0交易。该ETF还配置 了场外联接基金（联接A：014661，联接C：014662）。 消息面上，据央视财经，美国劳工部当地时间6月11日公布的数据显示，今年5月美国消费者价格指数 （CPI）同比上涨2.4%，高于前值但低于预期；剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，5月核心CPI同比上 涨2.8%，环比上涨0.1%，环比涨幅连续第四个月低于预期。数据公布后，市场对美联储的降息预期有 所升温，交易员普遍预计美联储有望在9月前降息一次，年底前进行第二次降息。 6月12日早盘，现货黄金走强，交投于3375美元/盎司附近，日内涨幅超0.6%。消息面上，美国最新公布 的通胀数据再度低于预期，市场对美联储的降息预期有所升温。 黄金相关ETF中，上海金ETF（159830）涨超1%，溢折率0.01%，盘中溢价交易。Wind数据显示，该 ETF昨日（6月11日）重获资金净流入，单日获净流入额232万元。 华泰期货指出，自5月以来黄金价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) has shown a decline of 0.47% as of June 10, 2025, with a latest price of 7.66 yuan and a trading volume of 15.0177 million yuan. The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, indicating a positive outlook for gold prices driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties [1]. Group 1: Gold Reserves and Market Trends - As of the end of May, China's official gold reserves stood at 7.383 million ounces (approximately 2,296.37 tons), reflecting an increase of 60,000 ounces (about 1.86 tons) month-on-month [1]. - Zhejiang Securities anticipates further increases in gold reserves, emphasizing the positive impact of central bank purchases on gold prices in the medium to long term [1]. - Recent reports from Caixin Securities highlight the fragility of the economic recovery in the U.S., with the ISM non-manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.9 and ADP employment growth falling short of expectations, which may influence gold demand as a safe haven [1]. Group 2: Performance Metrics of Shanghai Gold ETF - As of June 9, 2025, the Shanghai Gold ETF has seen a 37.01% increase in net value over the past year, ranking in the top 2 among comparable funds [2]. - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 10.00% since inception, with the longest streak of monthly gains being 6 months and an average monthly return of 3.04% [2]. - The historical probability of profit over a 3-year holding period for the ETF stands at 100% [2]. Group 3: Risk and Fee Structure - The Shanghai Gold ETF has a Sharpe ratio of 2.51 as of June 6, 2025, ranking in the top 2 out of 7 comparable funds, indicating higher returns for the same level of risk [3]. - The ETF has shown a relative drawdown of 0.17% year-to-date compared to its benchmark, suggesting lower risk in terms of drawdown among comparable funds [3]. - The management fee for the Shanghai Gold ETF is 0.25%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, both of which are relatively low compared to similar funds [4].

消息面上，据Wind金融终端，当地时间6月5日，美元指数跌幅0.07%、报98.74，当日盘中一度下探近 32日新低；今年以来，美元指数已累计下跌近9%。 东海期货指出，美元走弱叠加美国数据疲软支撑，贵金属近期小幅上涨。展望后市，地缘风险持续发酵 叠加美国经济疲软，贵金属短期震荡偏强。美国财政赤字扩张与信用下降趋势不变，贵金属中长期上行 逻辑依然稳固，关注阶段性回调后的长线布局机会。后续关注非农就业报告、关税政策及地域局势变 化。 6月6日，国际金价盘中走高。截至发稿，COMEX黄金上涨0.51%，报3392.6美元/盎司。 黄金相关ETF方面，上海金ETF（159830）午后一度翻红涨0.09%，成交额超1700万元。 上海金ETF（159830）紧密跟踪上海金（SHAU.SGE）；费率方面，上海金ETF（159830）管理费率 0.25%，基金托管费率为0.05%，均低于同标的产品平均水平，同时该ETF支持T+0交易。该ETF还配置 了场外联接基金（联接A：014661，联接C：014662）。 （本文机构观点来自持牌证券机构，不构成任何投资建议，亦不代表平台观点，请投资人独立判断和决 策。） （文章来源 ...