破七之后：强势已现， 空间几何 【政策观察】逆周期因子观察 蔡劭立 F3063489 Z0014617 联系人： 朱思谋 F03142856 — 量价和政策信号— 2 【量价观察】美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率上升 华泰期货研究院 2025年12月26日 ◆3个月的美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率曲线显示出人民币的升值趋势，Put端波动率高于Call端 ◆ 整体隐含波动率呈现上升的趋势 美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率 Delta为5的美元兑人民币3个月期权隐含波动率 数据来源： 3 Bloomberg Wind 华泰期货研究院 2 3 4 5 6 3M 2025/12/25 3M 2025/09/30 3M 2025/06/30 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2023-11 2024-05 2024-11 2025-05 2025-11 ◆ 逆周期因子维持在负区间，但尚未启动 ◆ 三个月CNH HIBOR-SHIBOR逆差波动 人民币汇率中间价逆周期因子 -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 6.8 6.85 6.9 6.95 7 7.05 7.1 7.15 7.2 7.25 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.15 - 7.25. The counter - cyclical factor has been activated, and with the regulatory's expectation management, the RMB's short - term buffer against external shocks has increased [36][39]. Summary by Related Catalogs Quantity and Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month US dollar against the RMB option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with the put - end volatility higher than the call - end. The volatility of the US dollar against the RMB option has continued to decline, and the market's expectation of the future volatility of the US dollar against the RMB has weakened [4]. - The term structure shows the changes in the premium and discount of the Singapore Exchange's US dollar against the RMB futures, bank forward premium and discount, and the US - China interest rate spread in different time periods [7][8]. Policy Observation - The policy counter - cyclical factor has been activated, and there are fluctuations in the three - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread [11]. Macroeconomic Analysis US Economy - There is a differentiation in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. As of August 6, the TGA account was 464.3 billion, and the Fed's reverse repurchase balance was 9.196 billion US dollars. Fed Chairman Powell did not give guidance on a September interest rate cut [19]. - The economic expectation has been revised upwards. In July, non - farm data was significantly revised downwards, inflation rebounded, fiscal spending increased significantly, and the economic situation showed marginal support [21]. - Fiscal spending has rebounded, especially in defense, medical insurance, and healthcare [22]. - The employment market in July was significantly revised downwards. The employment performance of the service sector was better than that of the commodity and government sectors, and the hourly wage in July increased by 0.3% month - on - month [28]. Chinese Economy - There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. In July, exports and consumption showed resilience, but inflation has not recovered, and there is pressure on fixed - asset investment [29]. - Exports in July exceeded expectations. Financial data was better than expected, with changes in exports to different regions and products [31]. European Economy - The downside risks have been cleared. Economic data is oscillating at the bottom, with the manufacturing and service PMIs in Europe rebounding in July. Inflation is stable, with the eurozone's CPI in July increasing by 2% year - on - year and the core CPI increasing by 2.3% year - on - year [34]. Scenario Deduction - There are different time - based scenarios including the Fed's policy window period, the destocking cycle, tariff impacts, and domestic policy windows [40][41]. Risk Assessment - The range of basis fluctuations: From the historical data from January 2022 to the present, the range of the premium and discount of the futures main contract is between - 1100 and 900 [45].