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美元弱周期
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美元大跌!去美元化持续,新周期来了,4类资产上涨2类下跌
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-21 23:51
Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing a significant downward trend, reflecting a broader economic weakness and market sentiment regarding US policies and economic performance [1][2]. Economic Performance - The US economy has not met market expectations, with the GDP for Q1 2025 showing a preliminary annualized rate of -0.3%, below the expected 0.3% [2]. - Consumer-related indicators also reflect economic weakness, contributing to the decline in the dollar index [2]. Trade Policies and Market Sentiment - US tariff policies have diminished market confidence in the dollar, leading to increased de-dollarization, particularly noted by a significant reduction in US Treasury holdings by China [2]. - European policy adjustments, influenced by US foreign policy, are causing a shift towards increased spending in defense and infrastructure, which may stabilize the Euro and further weaken the dollar [2]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The persistently low US inflation rate, currently below 3%, coupled with falling oil prices, suggests that the Federal Reserve may initiate interest rate cuts, adding downward pressure on the dollar index [2]. Asset Performance - Precious metals like gold and silver are expected to rebound as they have a long-term negative correlation with the dollar, benefiting from increased market risk aversion [4]. - Commodities may also strengthen due to lower costs for non-dollar currencies, stimulating demand and price increases, especially if the Fed cuts rates [4]. - Non-US currencies are likely to appreciate as the dollar weakens, allowing other currencies to exchange for more dollars [4]. - Stock markets in Hong Kong, A-shares, and Japan may see gains as international capital shifts away from dollar-denominated assets, with notable movements from investors like Warren Buffett [4]. Impact on US Assets - US stocks and bonds are under pressure as international capital sells off these dollar-related assets, leading to a decline in their value [5]. - Financial stocks in the US may be directly impacted by a weaker dollar and potential Fed rate cuts, which could narrow banks' net interest margins and affect profit expectations [5].