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中金:预期9-10月中美流动性环境延续共振 继续超配A股、港股、黄金
智通财经网· 2025-10-10 00:33
Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC anticipates that the liquidity environment between China and the U.S. will continue to resonate from September to October, with the dollar in a downward cycle, benefiting various asset classes including stocks, bonds, gold, and commodities [1][28]. Group 1: Market Outlook - October is expected to remain a favorable macroeconomic period, similar to September, suggesting a high risk appetite and an overweight position in Chinese stocks [1][28]. - The dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 index is close to historical averages, indicating potential for further expansion compared to previous bull market peaks [1][28]. - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks offer better relative value compared to U.S. stocks due to the easing macro liquidity environment and the diminished independence and credibility of the U.S. dollar [1][35]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is expected to switch between "fast-slow-fast" phases, with the first phase starting in Q4 2025 characterized by rapid rate cuts due to rising inflation and employment risks [4][28]. - The second phase in H1 2026 will see a slowdown in rate cuts as inflation continues to rise, requiring a balance between growth and inflation risks [4][28]. - The third phase in H2 2026 may see accelerated rate cuts again, particularly if a more dovish Fed chair is appointed, and tariff impacts on inflation diminish [4][28]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Asset Allocation - The U.S. economy is currently trending towards stagflation or recession, with stagflation being more likely, but the Fed's reintroduction of easing measures may eventually lead to growth recovery [8][28]. - Key economic indicators should be monitored to predict turning points in the economy, with a focus on consumption and employment data as leading indicators [16][21]. - The report suggests maintaining a focus on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, while also being cautious of potential volatility in the market due to previous significant price increases [28][30]. Group 4: Gold and Other Assets - Despite a rapid increase in gold prices since the beginning of the year, the report advises to downplay short-term trading value and focus on long-term allocation opportunities, suggesting to accumulate on dips [1][35]. - The report highlights that during the dollar's down cycle, gold, commodities, and non-U.S. stocks tend to outperform U.S. stocks [5][35]. - The recommendation is to maintain an overweight position in gold due to the ongoing macro liquidity easing, despite short-term risks of price corrections [1][35].
中金:美联储降息周期中的经济与市场前景
中金点睛· 2025-10-09 23:56
美联储降息节奏可能在"快-慢-快"之间切换 美联储9月重启降息,美元宽松周期进入新阶段,或对中外经济运行与资产表现产生深远影响。我们的基准预期是美联储降息周期可能分为"快-慢-快"3个 阶段: 文/中金大类资产研究:李昭,杨晓卿 点击小程序查看报告原文 2025Q4是第一阶段,降息节奏较快: 由于通胀8月刚确认上行拐点(《 拐点将至:美国通胀的资产启示 》),绝对水平不高,且美联储可以用"暂时 性"现象淡化通胀压力,而就业下行风险比通胀上行风险更迫切,所以"稳增长"的优先级高于"控通胀"。 图表1:美国通胀已确认上行拐点,未来3个季度或持续抬升 资料来源:Haver,中金公司研究部 叠加特朗普施加较大政治压力,我们预计美联储可能降息节奏较快,或连续降息3-4次。 2026H1为第二阶段,降息节奏放慢。 随着通胀持续上行,美联储或需重新平衡增长下行与通胀上行风险,无法持续快速降息,可能用停止"缩表"来安抚 金融市场。 2026H2为第三阶段,降息节奏再次加速。 由于2026年5月鲍威尔任期届满,我们预计特朗普政府大概率提名更鸽派的美联储主席上台,并且关税对通胀的 推升效果也可能告一段落,美联储可能重新加快降息节 ...
250万能否职业投资养活自己?
集思录· 2025-10-08 14:29
本人情况: 36岁 未婚无孩 一线城市房产一套 还剩20年贷款月供8000。 在一家IT大厂工作了十几年,职业天花板了,也不想卷了,计划明年离职,最近在看FIRE运 动,想彻底不工作了。 目前投资帐户总额含收益大概250万,40%指数基金,60%港股,年化收益8%~10%。 其他被动收入一年大概20万。 自己身边像我差不多情况的,我觉得比较少,不知道这种想法是否ok,最近也在做心理建 设,听听大家意见。 昨天半夜写的有些信息没有交代清楚: 1、房子买的比较早,在核心地段,交通便利,享受到了地产红利,比最高时跌了30%,总价 大概650万,目前应该是不会卖了努力还完贷款。 2、未婚无孩不是故意的,不是不想结婚,是一直没找到合适的,以后应该还是会结婚,但不 想现阶段因为这个困扰自己。 3、很多集友问被动收入,这个不太方便细讲,乐观估计至少可以持续10年。 4、指数基金那部份之前主要是跟踪E大的长赢,我看论坛里有人说收益率不高,但是我的确 实还可以,主要是还加上了波段操作,还开一些黑车,连续七八年了,回撤很小,收益稳 定。 ylshxajh 250万足够了,我做职业投资的时候本金才120万。 当初我是因为孩子出生, ...
【广发资产研究】一张图看懂十一假期海内外市场动态
戴康的策略世界· 2025-10-08 10:56
戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理(MD)、首席资产研究官 邮箱:daikang@gf.com.cn 经济数据发布将受到影响。 联储10月降息的预期。 就高物价等经济问题、外交、国际 安全保障问题在党内进行充分讨论。 假期海内 外安间 海外 国内 国庆假期人流量活跃度高于 国庆假期国内商品房成交偏弱 2025年国庆档总票房 去年 据iFinD,国庆假期期间 突破15亿元 据交通运输部,2025年10月 央行:中国9月末黄金储备报 (9.29-10.5) 30大中城市商品 据iFinD,国庆假期前 7406万查司 环比增加4万查司 5日(中秋国庆假期第5日), 房成交套數(二线城市)教量 7日(10.1-10.6),全 央行数据显示,中国9月末黄金 全社会跨区域人员流动量 环比下跌幅度较大,整体成交 国国庆档总票房突破15 储备报7406万查司(约2303.523 29119.72万人次,环比下降 仍相对偏弱。 吨),环比增加4万盘司(约1.24 3.4%,同比(2024年国庆假 吨),为连续第11个月增持黄金。 期第5日)增长3.4%。 8月末黄金储备报7402万盎司。 数据来源:交通运输部、iF ...
怪不得最近美股持续新高呢,还有黄金也是不断创出新高,今天原因终于浮出了水面,那就是美国在7年之后再次关门了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-03 15:13
你有没有发现,最近这股子行情有点反常,美股天天创新高,黄金也跟着上天,一般人看了都以为世界要发财了。可偏偏美国这边搞了个大新 闻,7年之后又一次关门。你说气不气?按理说这是风险事件,可华尔街却硬是看成美联储10月要降息的信号。 但问题来了,鲍威尔之前的表态可不是这么松。他一再强调通胀依然高企,虽然往下走但没到安全区。美联储内部还在反复权衡,不可能完全听 市场喊就立刻松口子。所以我觉得这次所谓100%降息,更多是华尔街自己脑补出来的情绪,带点赌的意味。 反而从市场反应来看,最直接受益的是港股。昨天恒生指数和恒生科技指数都大涨,这个很明显就是提前把"美联储要放水"的逻辑消化进去了。 资金最爱的是预期,不是真实动作。只要美联储可能降息,资本就敢抢跑,尤其是在外围流动性紧绷的背景下,香港市场格外敏感。 我也在想,美股现在的上涨到底是真基本面支撑,还是纯粹靠情绪。标普500一路新高,可如果你去看企业盈利增速,其实没多大改善。反而是 裁员潮、就业放缓这些信号在堆积。路透社9月的数据就显示,美国非农新增岗位已经放缓到了15万人以下,远低于去年动辄30万的水平。这些 都是硬指标,不是靠嘴能忽悠过去的。 换句话说,现在的市场像 ...
香港市场,又有利好!
大胡子说房· 2025-09-29 10:35
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the upcoming investment opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market (港G) due to its undervaluation compared to the A-share market (大A) and the anticipated impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on global assets [1][3][10]. Valuation Comparison - The average PE ratio of the Hang Seng Index is approximately 10 times, while the CSI 300 Index has reached a PE ratio of 14 times, indicating that 港G is undervalued [3]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index has a PE ratio of about 21.77 times, significantly lower than the 184 times of the STAR 50 Index in 大A, highlighting the valuation gap in the technology sector [3]. Currency Strength - The RMB has appreciated from 7.24 in April to a low of 7.10, indicating a strong currency that attracts international capital to RMB-denominated assets, particularly 港G [4]. - The ease of capital movement in 港G compared to 大A makes it a more attractive option for foreign investors [4]. Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Cuts - Predictions suggest that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates three times this year, which could lead to a significant decline in the dollar index and create panic in dollar-denominated assets [5][9]. - Non-dollar assets, including 港G, are expected to benefit from this environment, as they will serve as alternative investments [6][9]. Technical Analysis - The Hang Seng Technology Index is anticipated to break through its previous high of 6195 points if the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates and inject liquidity into the market [8]. - A breakthrough above 6100 points could lead to a target of 11000 points, indicating substantial growth potential for 港G [9]. Market Dynamics - The article suggests that the upcoming interest rate cuts will trigger a significant reshuffling of global assets, and investors should prepare for this shift by positioning themselves in undervalued assets [10][11].
桥水拆解:A股上涨37%,还能继续吗?
老徐抓AI趋势· 2025-09-29 01:08
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent rally in A-shares is primarily driven by market sentiment and valuation expansion rather than significant improvements in corporate earnings [6][9]. - The communication between the U.S. and China has created a positive atmosphere, suggesting a stable competitive relationship that may benefit the market in the long term [5][6]. - A-shares have seen a 37.1% return in 2024, with 32.6% attributed to price increases and only 1.7% from profit growth, indicating a reliance on valuation rather than earnings [6][8]. Group 2 - A-shares are compared unfavorably to U.S. stocks, which benefit from higher profit growth and shareholder returns through buybacks and dividends [7][9]. - The article highlights that A-shares face challenges such as frequent financing and dilution of earnings per share (EPS), which limits shareholder returns [7][9]. - The analysis from Bridgewater indicates that while A-shares are not in a bubble, there are signs of overheating in specific indices like the Sci-Tech 50 [8][9]. Group 3 - The article discusses the potential of the domestic chip industry, noting advancements in technology that could alleviate supply chain risks [9]. - The performance of the Hang Seng Index is characterized as more stable compared to A-shares, with a higher earnings growth rate among its constituents [10]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring corporate earnings reports to confirm any recovery in profit growth, which is essential for sustaining the current market rally [10][11].
宏观投资,必读10篇!(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
赵伟宏观探索· 2025-09-22 16:03
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic trends and their impact on various asset classes, highlighting key insights on gold, currency exchange rates, and bond markets throughout 2025 [2]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The analysis on January 2, 2025, indicates a bullish outlook on gold, suggesting that the acceleration of U.S. Treasury bond maturities may lead global central banks to increase gold purchases [3]. - The article notes that investment demand for gold in Europe and the U.S. is expected to accelerate in the latter half of the year [3]. Group 2: Currency and Exchange Rate Analysis - On January 16, 2025, the article discusses the resilience of the Chinese yuan, attributing it to the central bank's counter-cyclical adjustments and domestic economic strength, despite widespread expectations of depreciation [4]. - The article also highlights the potential for a stronger yuan supported by pending settlement funds [4]. Group 3: Policy and Market Opportunities - The analysis from February 9, 2025, points out the market opportunities arising from the "fermentation period" of policies, focusing on proactive fiscal measures and specific industry policies [5]. - On May 11, 2025, the article suggests that trade negotiations and financial pressures may prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish stance, which could positively influence market sentiment [6]. Group 4: Bond Market Dynamics - The March 17, 2025, analysis warns against a linear bullish mindset in the bond market, indicating that asset allocation strategies may need to be reconsidered as the market undergoes rebalancing [5]. - The article discusses the distance of long-term bond yields from 2% to 1%, emphasizing the need for a nuanced approach to bond investments [5]. Group 5: U.S. Dollar and Global Currency Trends - The article from April 20, 2025, raises concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt and the potential weakening of the dollar's safe-haven status, which may lead to capital flows towards the euro and other assets [6]. - On July 8, 2025, it is noted that while a weaker dollar and "de-dollarization" are distinct concepts, the anticipated interest rate cuts could support a temporary strengthening of the dollar index [7]. Group 6: Market Sentiment and Investment Behavior - The August 16, 2025, analysis highlights a shift in market focus towards the U.S. labor market, with inflation pressures easing, suggesting a potential return of capital to the U.S. [8]. - The article also indicates that despite a recent consolidation in A-shares, investor sentiment remains bullish, with a continued possibility of a "stock-gold seesaw" effect [11].
宏观投资,必读10篇!(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-09-21 16:03
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic trends and their impact on various asset classes, highlighting key insights on gold, currency exchange rates, and bond markets throughout 2025 [2]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The analysis on January 2, 2025, indicates a bullish outlook on gold, suggesting that the acceleration of U.S. Treasury bond maturities may lead global central banks to increase gold purchases [3]. - The article notes that investment demand for gold in Europe and the U.S. is expected to accelerate in the latter half of the year [3]. Group 2: Currency and Exchange Rates - On January 16, 2025, the article discusses the resilience of the Renminbi (RMB), attributing it to the central bank's counter-cyclical adjustments and domestic economic strength, despite widespread expectations of depreciation [4]. - The analysis on July 8, 2025, differentiates between a weak dollar and the concept of "de-dollarization," suggesting that anticipated interest rate cuts may support a temporary strengthening of the dollar index [9]. Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The March 17, 2025, commentary warns against a linear bullish mindset in the bond market, indicating that asset allocation strategies may be shifting [5]. - The article highlights the potential for a rebalancing of investment strategies in the bond market, moving away from traditional linear thinking [5]. Group 4: Policy and Economic Signals - The article from May 11, 2025, points to positive signals from policy developments, suggesting that trade negotiations and financial pressures may prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish stance [6]. - The June 15, 2025, analysis draws parallels between the current economic environment in Hong Kong and previous periods, suggesting that a weaker Hong Kong dollar and low interest rates could benefit the Hong Kong stock market [7]. Group 5: Market Behavior and Trends - The August 16, 2025, piece notes that inflation pressures have eased, leading the market to focus on the "weak balance" in the U.S. labor market, with a shift towards interest rate cut trades and capital inflows into the U.S. [10]. - The article concludes with a cautionary note regarding gold prices, indicating that market expectations for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may already be priced in, contrasting with the bullish sentiment in the A-share market [11].
美联储降息25个基点内外资机构看好中国资产前景
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-09-21 15:28
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, which is expected to create a more favorable external environment for Chinese assets, enhancing their attractiveness [2] - Multiple institutions, including Invesco and Fidelity International, express optimism about investment opportunities in non-US markets, particularly in China, Japan, and Europe, following the Fed's rate cut [2] - Emerging market equities are viewed as having good investment value, with current valuations being only one-third of developed markets, supported by a weaker dollar and easing monetary policies in the Asia-Pacific region [2] Group 2 - The easing of external constraints is expected to enhance the People's Bank of China's operational flexibility in monetary policy tools, such as MLF/LPR and structural instruments [3] - As the US economy shows signs of weakening and the Fed's independence comes under scrutiny, a gradual shift to a rate-cutting cycle is anticipated, which may lead to a significant increase in foreign capital inflow into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [4] - Key investment themes identified by Manulife include high-growth sectors like AI and robotics, sectors benefiting directly from liquidity easing, and industries with improving fundamentals due to policy changes, such as power equipment and chemicals [4]