Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 28, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - Copper price decline recently was expected. The U.S. dollar index rebounded from 97 to 98.4 after a sharp drop last Friday, showing strong support at the bottom. There is an obvious negative correlation between copper price and the U.S. dollar index in recent trading days. The change in the U.S. dollar index is due to Trump's announcement to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, but Cook responded that Trump has no right to fire her. In the short - term, there is still some pressure above the copper price from the bottom support of the U.S. dollar index and the negative feedback of demand at high prices. As time passes, the downstream producers' acceptance of copper price is increasing, providing support for the copper price. The target price below is tentatively set at 78,000 yuan per ton [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper Price and Volatility - Latest copper price: 79,190 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] 3.2 Copper Risk Management Suggestions 3.2.1 Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline (long spot exposure): - Strategy 1: Short the main Shanghai copper futures contract. Sell the main Shanghai copper futures contract with a hedging ratio of 75% at around 82,000 yuan. - Strategy 2: Sell call options. Sell CU2511C82000 with a hedging ratio of 25% when the volatility is relatively stable [2] 3.2.2 Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase (short spot exposure): Long the main Shanghai copper futures contract. Buy the main Shanghai copper futures contract with a hedging ratio of 75% at around 77,000 yuan [2] 3.3 Factors Affecting Copper Price 3.3.1 Bullish Factors - The U.S. reaches an agreement on tariff policy with other countries. - Increased expectations of interest rate cuts lead to a decline in the U.S. dollar index, boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals. - The lower support level is rising [4] 3.3.2 Bearish Factors - Tariff policy is changeable. - Global demand decreases due to tariff policies. - The adjustment of U.S. copper tariff policy causes an extremely high COMEX inventory [5] 3.4 Copper Futures and Spot Data 3.4.1 Copper Futures Data (Daily) | Futures Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | yuan/ton | 79,190 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 79,190 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 79,140 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | dollars/ton | 9,773.5 | - 73 | - 0.74% | [4] 3.4.2 Copper Spot Data (Daily) | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 79,545 | - 40 | - 0.05% | | Shanghai Wumaotong | yuan/ton | 79,560 | - 30 | - 0.04% | | Guangdong Nanchu | yuan/ton | 79,480 | - 100 | - 0.13% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 79,670 | - 110 | - 0.14% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 170 | 40 | 30.77% | | Shanghai Wumaotong Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 140 | 60 | 75% | | Guangdong Nanchu Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 115 | 15 | 15% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 165 | 0 | 0% | [7] 3.5 Copper Scrap - to - Refined Spread | Spread Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | yuan/ton | 1,464.89 | - 86.39 | - 5.57% | | Reasonable Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | yuan/ton | 1,495.5 | 0.2 | 0.01% | | Price Advantage (Tax - included) | yuan/ton | - 30.61 | - 86.59 | - 154.68% | | Current Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | 6,150 | - 80 | - 1.28% | | Reasonable Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | 6,220.77 | 1.39 | 0.02% | [11] 3.6 Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories 3.6.1 SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts (Daily) | Warehouse Receipt Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 21,287 | - 1,630 | - 7.11% | | Total International Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 5,797 | 0 | 0% | | SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts in Shanghai | tons | 2,405 | 0 | 0% | | Total Bonded SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total Tax - paid SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 21,287 | - 1,630 | - 7.11% | [13] 3.6.2 LME Copper Inventory (Daily) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total LME Copper Inventory | tons | 156,100 | 1,100 | 0.71% | | LME Copper Inventory in Europe | tons | 24,400 | - 150 | - 0.61% | | LME Copper Inventory in Asia | tons | 16,725 | - 113,875 | - 87.19% | | LME Copper Inventory in North America | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total LME Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts | tons | 142,850 | - 400 | - 0.28% | | Total LME Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | tons | 13,250 | 1,500 | 12.77% | [15] 3.6.3 COMEX Copper Inventory (Daily) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total COMEX Copper Inventory | tons | 273,767 | 3,231 | 1.19% | | Total COMEX Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts | tons | 141,117 | 4,418 | 0.47% | | Total COMEX Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | tons | 132,650 | 1,006 | 0.76% | [16] 3.7 Copper Import Profit and Processing | Indicator | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Import Profit/Loss | yuan/ton | 157.56 | 206.61 | - 421.22% | | Copper Concentrate TC | dollars/ton | - 41.06 | 0.24 | - 0.58% | [17]