截至9月30日收盘，全球大宗商品期货市场三季度交易正式落幕。 今年前三季度，全球大宗商品市场呈现出明显的分化态势，代表走势的CRB价格指数最新收报300.6 点，累计涨幅达1.31%。其中，贵金属期货集体大幅上扬，美国铂金期货主力连续合约累计涨幅最大， 达到77.45%，显著领涨其他商品期货；部分软饮料期货品种主力连续合约则跌幅显著。 展望四季度，业内人士表示，美联储降息周期开启将使大宗商品的宏观环境趋于稳定，但受品种基本面 差异影响，大宗商品走势分化的格局或持续。 全球主要大宗商品期货走势分化 今年前三季度，全球主要大宗商品期货走势分化。文华财经数据显示，截至9月30日，代表全球大宗商 品价格走势的CRB价格指数收盘报300.6点，前三季度累计上涨1.31%。 分品种来看，在统计的32个全球主要大宗商品期货中，前三季度，12个品种累计涨幅实现正收益，比例 为37.5%。 其中，贵金属家族期货表现亮眼，美国铂金期货主力连续合约累计涨幅最大，达到77.45%，显著领涨 其他商品期货；COMEX白银期货、COMEX黄金期货、美国钯金期货主力连续合约涨幅依次位于第二 名至第四名，累计涨幅分别为60.12%、47.3 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The current copper price is at a high level in the past year, and the market is cautious due to the upcoming Fed interest rate meeting. After the expected 25BP interest rate cut is implemented, copper prices are expected to continue to strengthen. Although the downstream's ability to absorb the current copper price is average, there is still restocking demand before the double festivals, which provides support for the demand side [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The Shanghai copper price rose first and then fell. The main contract reached a maximum of 81,530. The spot copper price increased by 180 to 81,120, and the spot premium decreased by 5 to 75. The loss of spot imports widened to 230. The LME0 - 3 contango remained around 62, and the premiums of Yangshan copper warehouse receipts and bills of lading both decreased slightly [10]. 3.2行业要闻 - Anglo American and Codelco plan to jointly mine adjacent copper mines in Chile. Once the relevant licenses are in place, it will increase copper production by 2.7 million tons in 21 years, starting in 2030. The expected annual additional copper production is 120,000 tons, with a 15% reduction in unit cost compared to independent operation, and a minimum increase in capital expenditure. The transaction is expected to generate a pre - tax net present value increase of at least $5 billion, shared equally by both parties [11]. - Canadian Prime Minister Carney told Anglo American that if it wants to merge with Teck Resources, it needs to move its headquarters to Canada [11]. - Chile's state - owned mining agency ENAMI's $1.7 billion smelter modernization project has attracted 15 institutions to express investment intentions. The Hernan Videla - Lira smelter in the Atacama region is being renovated, which will enable it to process 850,000 tons of copper concentrate and produce 240,000 tons of cathode copper annually. The deadline for initial bids is the end of October [11][12].

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 28, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - Copper price decline recently was expected. The U.S. dollar index rebounded from 97 to 98.4 after a sharp drop last Friday, showing strong support at the bottom. There is an obvious negative correlation between copper price and the U.S. dollar index in recent trading days. The change in the U.S. dollar index is due to Trump's announcement to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, but Cook responded that Trump has no right to fire her. In the short - term, there is still some pressure above the copper price from the bottom support of the U.S. dollar index and the negative feedback of demand at high prices. As time passes, the downstream producers' acceptance of copper price is increasing, providing support for the copper price. The target price below is tentatively set at 78,000 yuan per ton [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper Price and Volatility - Latest copper price: 79,190 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] 3.2 Copper Risk Management Suggestions 3.2.1 Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline (long spot exposure): - Strategy 1: Short the main Shanghai copper futures contract. Sell the main Shanghai copper futures contract with a hedging ratio of 75% at around 82,000 yuan. - Strategy 2: Sell call options. Sell CU2511C82000 with a hedging ratio of 25% when the volatility is relatively stable [2] 3.2.2 Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase (short spot exposure): Long the main Shanghai copper futures contract. Buy the main Shanghai copper futures contract with a hedging ratio of 75% at around 77,000 yuan [2] 3.3 Factors Affecting Copper Price 3.3.1 Bullish Factors - The U.S. reaches an agreement on tariff policy with other countries. - Increased expectations of interest rate cuts lead to a decline in the U.S. dollar index, boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals. - The lower support level is rising [4] 3.3.2 Bearish Factors - Tariff policy is changeable. - Global demand decreases due to tariff policies. - The adjustment of U.S. copper tariff policy causes an extremely high COMEX inventory [5] 3.4 Copper Futures and Spot Data 3.4.1 Copper Futures Data (Daily) | Futures Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | yuan/ton | 79,190 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 79,190 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 79,140 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | dollars/ton | 9,773.5 | - 73 | - 0.74% | [4] 3.4.2 Copper Spot Data (Daily) | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 79,545 | - 40 | - 0.05% | | Shanghai Wumaotong | yuan/ton | 79,560 | - 30 | - 0.04% | | Guangdong Nanchu | yuan/ton | 79,480 | - 100 | - 0.13% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 79,670 | - 110 | - 0.14% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 170 | 40 | 30.77% | | Shanghai Wumaotong Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 140 | 60 | 75% | | Guangdong Nanchu Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 115 | 15 | 15% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 165 | 0 | 0% | [7] 3.5 Copper Scrap - to - Refined Spread | Spread Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | yuan/ton | 1,464.89 | - 86.39 | - 5.57% | | Reasonable Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | yuan/ton | 1,495.5 | 0.2 | 0.01% | | Price Advantage (Tax - included) | yuan/ton | - 30.61 | - 86.59 | - 154.68% | | Current Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | 6,150 | - 80 | - 1.28% | | Reasonable Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | 6,220.77 | 1.39 | 0.02% | [11] 3.6 Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories 3.6.1 SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts (Daily) | Warehouse Receipt Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 21,287 | - 1,630 | - 7.11% | | Total International Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 5,797 | 0 | 0% | | SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts in Shanghai | tons | 2,405 | 0 | 0% | | Total Bonded SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total Tax - paid SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 21,287 | - 1,630 | - 7.11% | [13] 3.6.2 LME Copper Inventory (Daily) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total LME Copper Inventory | tons | 156,100 | 1,100 | 0.71% | | LME Copper Inventory in Europe | tons | 24,400 | - 150 | - 0.61% | | LME Copper Inventory in Asia | tons | 16,725 | - 113,875 | - 87.19% | | LME Copper Inventory in North America | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total LME Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts | tons | 142,850 | - 400 | - 0.28% | | Total LME Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | tons | 13,250 | 1,500 | 12.77% | [15] 3.6.3 COMEX Copper Inventory (Daily) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total COMEX Copper Inventory | tons | 273,767 | 3,231 | 1.19% | | Total COMEX Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts | tons | 141,117 | 4,418 | 0.47% | | Total COMEX Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | tons | 132,650 | 1,006 | 0.76% | [16] 3.7 Copper Import Profit and Processing | Indicator | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Import Profit/Loss | yuan/ton | 157.56 | 206.61 | - 421.22% | | Copper Concentrate TC | dollars/ton | - 41.06 | 0.24 | - 0.58% | [17]

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The copper market is currently in a transition period between the off - season and peak season. With the withdrawal of the waste copper investment promotion policy, the short - term output of recycled copper rods has decreased, leading to an increase in the substitution consumption of refined copper rods. It is expected that domestic inventories will decline in the future, and LME inventories will be transferred to China with the import window open. The low - inventory support logic will continue, and copper prices are likely to rise rather than fall [10] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper market oscillated and declined. The US dollar rose against major currencies, and the market digested Powell's speech. The upward trend of A - shares paused, and the market's bullish sentiment decreased. Nearly 4 billion yuan of funds flowed out of industrial products. Shanghai copper retraced throughout the day and closed lower at the end of the session. The near - month back spread widened to 40, the spot price increased by 190 to 79,585, the spot premium decreased by 10 to 130. The spot import profit was 150, the Shanghai - London ratio dropped to 8.09, and the LME0 - 3 contango structure narrowed to 78. The market is optimistic about the September premium, and holders are firm on prices [10] 2. Industry News - First Quantum Minerals abandoned the plan to sell its stake in Zambian copper mines. On August 25, it announced that a $1 billion gold deal had alleviated its balance - sheet pressure, so it shelved the plan to sell its minority stake in two Zambian copper mines [11] - Ivanhoe Mines advanced the drainage plan for the Kamoa copper project. After the drainage of the eastern area of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine was completed, mining operations are expected to resume early next year. The company also plans to release new production forecasts in the coming weeks [11] - The US plans to include copper and potash in the list of critical minerals. The US government will add copper, potash, silicon, silver, lead, and rhenium to the draft list of critical minerals, while tellurium and arsenic will be removed [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening US job market has increased the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. However, due to the traditional consumption off - season in China suppressing downstream demand, the total inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad has been fluctuating upwards. As a result, there may still be room for the Shanghai copper price to decline. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to key support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,400 yuan, up 360 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 80,943 lots, a decrease of 28,068 lots; the open interest was 167,671 lots, a decrease of 8,522 lots; the inventory was 20,349 tons, an increase of 727 tons; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,330 yuan, a decrease of 235 yuan [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spreads**: The Shanghai copper basis was - 70 yuan, a decrease of 595 yuan; the spot premium or discount in different regions had different changes, such as a 5 - yuan increase in Guangzhou, a 10 - yuan decrease in North China, and no change in East China; the spreads between different contract months also changed, with the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract decreasing by 70 yuan, and the spreads between other contract months having corresponding increases or decreases [2]. - **London Copper**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,633 US dollars, up 26 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a decrease of 141,750 tons; the spreads between different contract periods also changed, with the 0 - 3 - month contract spread increasing by 1.51 US dollars and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread decreasing by 15.18 US dollars; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper price was 8.1387, an increase of 0.02 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.443 US dollars, a decrease of 0.19 US dollars; the total inventory was 259,681 tons, an increase of 3,733 tons [2]. Industry News - **Policy Impact**: On July 30, 2025, the US government's decision on the Section 232 investigation of steel led to the exemption of import tariffs on electrolytic copper. The spread between COMEX copper and LME copper collapsed, causing a large amount of electrolytic copper to shift from COMEX warehouses to the LME delivery warehouse in New Orleans [2]. - **Mine Expansion**: Codelco planned to invest $5.7 billion in 2022 to expand the El Teniente mine, including three new ore layers. As of March 31, 2025, the Andes Norte project was 73% complete, the Andesita project was 70% complete and started operation in February 2025, and the Diamante project was 43% complete. The expansion project is expected to contribute 2 - 3 tons of copper production increment in 2025, reaching 15 tons after full - production. The annual output is expected to reach 50 tons after all projects are put into operation [2]. - **Accident**: A Chilean earthquake caused a casualty accident at Codelco's El Teniente copper mine, with 6 people reported dead, and operations in the accident area were suspended for investigation [2]. Market Supply and Demand - **Supply Side**: The production (import) volume of copper concentrates in China in August is expected to increase month - on - month. The import index of Chinese copper concentrates is negative and has increased compared to last week. The departure (arrival, inventory) volume of copper concentrates at Chinese ports has decreased compared to last week. The export restriction of high - quality scrap steel in Europe has limited Chinese importers to purchasing copper rice or brass. Uncertainty in Sino - US tariff negotiations has led to low direct imports of US scrap copper and indirect supply through countries like Japan, South Korea, and Thailand. The negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap steel has weakened the economic viability of scrap copper, closing the scrap copper import window and potentially reducing the production (import) volume of domestic scrap copper in August. Some copper smelters have suspended production, such as Glencore's PASAR copper smelter in the Philippines with a capacity of 200,000 tons, Zhongkuang Resources' Tsuneb copper smelter in Namibia (annual processing capacity of 240,000 tons of copper concentrates), and Glencore's Altonorte smelter in Chile with a capacity of 350,000 tons. The Congo's moa - Kakula copper smelter is expected to be completed and put into operation in June 2025, with an annual output of 500,000 tons. Liangshan Mining's 150,000 - ton copper reform project is in the pre - work stage, and the second rotary anode furnace of the pyrometallurgical system of the Yunnan Zhongyou Non - ferrous Recycling Copper Resource Recycling Base produced anode copper at the beginning of the month. The weekly processing fee for crude copper in northern (southern) China remained flat (increased) month - on - month, and the capacity of crude copper smelter maintenance in China in August may decrease month - on - month, potentially increasing the production (import) volume of domestic crude copper in August [2]. - **Demand Side**: The traditional consumption off - season in China has suppressed downstream demand [2].

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that copper futures are trading at a premium of $8 per ton compared to COMEX copper [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that London copper futures are trading at a premium of $8 per ton compared to COMEX copper [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US economy shows a mixed picture with manufacturing in contraction and inflation pressure rising, while the EU and the US are in trade negotiations and the ECB maintains interest rates. Domestically, the stock and commodity markets are positive, the bond market is under pressure, and various commodities show different trends affected by multiple factors such as trade policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment [2][3] - The prices of precious metals are in回调 due to the expected easing of trade tensions; copper prices are expected to remain high - level volatile; aluminum prices are likely to oscillate; alumina prices will stay in a short - term oscillation; zinc prices will adjust at a high level; lead prices will move horizontally; tin prices will oscillate at a high level; industrial silicon prices will be strongly oscillating; lithium carbonate prices will have a wide - range oscillation; nickel prices may oscillate strongly; crude oil prices will have their center of gravity lifted; steel prices will oscillate; iron ore prices will oscillate; and the prices of bean and rapeseed meal will have a wide - range oscillation, while palm oil prices may oscillate strongly [4][6][8][10][11][13][15][16][18][20][22][24][25][26][28] Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The US 7 - month Markit manufacturing PMI is 49.5 (in contraction), the service PMI is 55.2 (a new high for the year), inflation pressure rises, and business confidence drops. The EU and the US are close to a trade deal, but the EU has approved a 930 - billion - euro anti - tariff measure on US products. The ECB maintains interest rates, and the market's expectation of further rate cuts weakens [2] - Domestic: The A - share market breaks through 3600 points, with a trading volume of about 1.9 trillion yuan. The bond market is under pressure, and the 10Y and 30Y treasury bond rates rise to 1.74% and 1.95% respectively [3] Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures fall 0.77% to $3371.3 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fall 0.55% to $39.285 per ounce. The expected easing of global trade tensions weakens the demand for hedging, putting pressure on precious metals [4] Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper slightly falls. The US manufacturing contraction and the approaching tariff deadline make the overseas capital market cautious. Freeport's second - quarter copper production is 43.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1%. Copper prices are expected to remain high - level volatile [6][7] Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closes at 20760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.41%. The increase in the US dollar index and the weak US manufacturing PMI increase the pressure on aluminum prices. The inventory of aluminum ingots accumulates, while the inventory of aluminum rods decreases. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate [8][9] Alumina - The main contract of alumina futures closes at 3355 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.81%. The low - level warehouse receipt inventory provides support for alumina prices, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [10] Zinc - The main contract of Shanghai zinc has an intraday volatile and strong trend. The decrease in the position of an LME seat, the slight increase in LME inventory, and the slight discount of LME0 - 3 spot ease the squeeze - out concern. Zinc prices are expected to adjust at a high level [11][12] Lead - The main contract of Shanghai lead moves horizontally. The high inventory pressure is not relieved, and the consumption improvement is insufficient. Lead prices are expected to move horizontally in the short term, and attention should be paid to consumption variables [13][14] Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin oscillates at a high level. The decrease in the position of an LME seat eases the squeeze - out concern, but the rainy season in Southeast Asia may affect the transportation of tin ore in Myanmar. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [15] Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon is strongly oscillating. The supply side is in a passive contraction state, and the demand side shows different trends. Supported by policies, the prices are expected to be strongly oscillating, but the risk of high - level decline should be guarded against [16][17] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate runs strongly, and the spot price slightly rises. The market is affected by various news, and the price amplitude increases. The spot market is cold, and lithium prices will have a wide - range oscillation in the short term [18][19] Nickel - Nickel prices oscillate weakly. The supply of nickel ore is becoming more abundant, and the cost pressure of nickel iron still exists. The introduction of the price draft may make nickel prices oscillate strongly [20][21] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices oscillate. The short - term geopolitical risk cools down, the EIA crude oil inventory decreases more than expected, and the macro - sentiment is strengthening, pushing up the center of gravity of crude oil prices [22][23] Steel (Screw and Coil) - Steel futures oscillate. Multiple departments are promoting anti - involution competition rectification. The supply and demand of steel are in a weak balance. Steel prices are expected to oscillate [24] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillate at a high level. The supply of iron ore is sufficient, and the cost increase due to the rise of coke prices suppresses the bargaining space of iron ore. The demand remains resilient. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [25] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - The prices of bean and rapeseed meal fall. The water - heat conditions in the US soybean - producing areas are good, and the export sales of new - crop soybeans are slow. Affected by the protein - reduction policy, the long - position funds reduce their positions, and the prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [26][27] Palm Oil - Palm oil prices may oscillate strongly. The production of Malaysian palm oil is in an increasing cycle, and the potential demand from countries like India provides support. The market expects future supply to tighten [28][29]

Report Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [2] - Date: July 22, 2025 [3] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [4] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The macro - level is the main reason for the recent rise in copper prices. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to introduce a plan to stabilize growth for industries such as non - ferrous metals, which has raised market expectations for a new round of supply - side reform. With the short - term hype points of copper supply - side reform and a relatively strong fundamental situation, copper prices are expected to rise further [12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper prices rose, with total positions increasing by 14,000 lots and trading volume significantly expanding. The market maintained a near - month contango structure and a far - month ack structure, and the spot premium rose to 220 due to tight market supply. Domestic social inventories decreased by 24,700 tons to 118,600 tons over the weekend, and low inventories began to affect the spot premium. The LME market had a slight inventory reduction of 100 tons, and the expectation of inventory accumulation continued to suppress the 0 - 3 contango structure. The overseas market was affected by the upcoming US tariff on copper, showing a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas fundamentals [12] 2. Industry News - In June 2025, China's copper enameled wire exports were 12,222.29 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.35% and a month - on - month increase of 0.93%. From January to June, the total exports were 69,586.5 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.32% [13] - In June 2025, China imported 34,700 tons of scrap copper ingots (red/purple copper ingots), a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of 71%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 226,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 111% [13] - In June 2025, China imported 68,500 tons of anode copper, a month - on - month decrease of 1.26% and a year - on - year increase of 2.38%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 382,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 17.56% [13]

Core Viewpoint - The short-term performance of copper futures in both Shanghai and London is weak, but the long-term fundamentals remain strong, prompting investors to consider their strategies for positioning in the market [1] Group 1 - Short-term weakness observed in copper futures markets, both in Shanghai and London [1] - Long-term fundamentals for copper remain robust, indicating potential for future growth [1] - Investors are encouraged to reassess their positioning strategies in light of current market conditions [1]