1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market has shifted from a one - sided bullish trading logic of "supply shortage + emerging demand explosion" to a volatile adjustment logic of "high inventory + macro uncertainty". High inventory is dragging down near - month contracts, and macro expectations are affecting far - month contracts, with both near - term concerns and long - term apprehensions [2]. - The current stage of cathode copper and LME copper is the early stage of an upward trend at a cyclical low. The risk - return ratio of going long on Shanghai copper is 1.53%, and that of going long on LME copper is 1.67%, both indicating a moderate risk - return ratio and suggesting moderate participation [2][9]. - The copper price has switched from the pre - holiday pattern of "AI demand + tariff siphon + supply shortage" to a volatile adjustment pattern of "high inventory suppression + macro uncertainty + strong US dollar". Next week, the copper price will continue to be in a game between high - inventory reality and peak - season expectations. The mid - to - late March is a key window to verify the inventory inflection point. If destocking starts as expected, the copper price is expected to stabilize and rebound; if inventory accumulation continues, the risk of a second correction should be watched out for [55]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Contradictions**: The market trading logic has changed. The post - holiday market is in the inventory accumulation stage, and the start - up rate of industrial chain enterprises is gradually recovering. High inventory and macro expectations affect different contracts, and the inter - month spread has significantly narrowed [2]. - **Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations**: - **Market Positioning**: The latest price quantile of Shanghai copper is 99.5%, with a one - week annualized volatility of 19.21%, higher than last week and the historical volatility of 18.01%. The latest price quantile of LME copper is 99.1%, with a one - week annualized volatility of 14.8%, higher than last week but lower than the historical volatility of 20.28% [9]. - **Trend Judgment**: Cathode copper and LME copper are in the early stage of an upward trend at a cyclical low [9]. - **Price Range**: The price range of Shanghai copper is [99,605, 105,151], with a price center of 102,378; the price range of LME copper is [12,669, 13,514], with a price center of 13,091 [9]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: The risk - return ratio of going long on Shanghai copper is 1.53% (moderate risk - return ratio, moderate participation), and that of going long on LME copper is 1.67% (moderate risk - return ratio, moderate participation) [9]. - **Basis (Premium/Discount), Month - Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: - **Basis Strategy**: Neutral. The inventory narrative has reversed, the macro weight has increased, and the AI narrative has weakened [11]. - **Month - Spread Strategy**: Neutral. The main fluctuation range of the spread between the first - and third - month contracts is [-100, 250], and the current spread is -220, with an expected probability of spread expansion of 44% and contraction of 56% [12]. - **Cross - Border Spread Strategy**: Pay attention to cross - market reverse arbitrage. The current Shanghai - LME ratio is 7.86, at the 42% historical quantile. Key influencing factors include the US dollar index, LME copper inventory, and fund net long positions [12]. - **Enterprise Hedging Strategy Recommendations**: For enterprises with low raw material inventory and post - holiday replenishment needs, considering the expected increase in price volatility, futures can be used to build positions in batches near support levels, and over - the - counter options can be used to buy upward - knock - out cumulative options [19]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Event Interpretations - **This Week's Important Information**: - **Positive Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission plans to deepen the "AI +" action, and the scale of AI - related industries will exceed 10 trillion yuan by the end of the 15th Five - Year Plan. Consumption and investment policies will be strengthened. Chile's copper exports to China showed a low - level rebound in February [20]. - **Negative Information**: LME copper inventory increased by 20,675 tons to 282,200 tons, the largest increase since August 2024. Domestic social copper inventory continued to accumulate, and the US dollar strengthened [21][22]. - **Industrial Chain Dynamics**: MMG's Khoemacau copper mine expansion project started, and the company is seeking mergers and acquisitions. Jiangxi Copper plans to acquire SolGold. Capstone Copper had a record - high income in Q4 2025 and expects 2026 copper production to be between 200,000 - 230,000 tons [23][24]. - **Next Week's Key Event Interpretations**: A series of macro - economic indicators will be released next week, including China's CPI, PPI, and the US CPI, PCE, etc. [27] 3.3 Disk Price - Volume and Capital Interpretations - **Domestic Market Interpretation**: Affected by the conflict and macro factors, copper prices in the domestic market fell in both price and volume, breaking through key support levels. The trading volume of the Shanghai copper weighted index decreased by 17.8% week - on - week, and the position increased by 0.24%. The inter - month spread of Shanghai copper narrowed, and the exchange may enter a destocking cycle [30]. - **Foreign Market Interpretation**: LME copper and Comex copper also showed a trend of volume contraction and consolidation. The LME copper price fluctuated in the range of [12,722, 13,433] and closed at 12,869 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decline of 1.65%. The Comex copper price fluctuated in the range of [574.7, 609.55] and closed at 583.75 cents/pound, with a week - on - week decline of 2.13%. The LME term structure showed a slight premium in the long - term, and the LC spread was in an inverted state [33][34]. 3.4 Spot Price and Profit Analysis - **Spot Price and Smelting Profit**: In the second half of the week, the decline in copper spot prices widened, and the discount narrowed. The smelting income of refined copper spot decreased week - on - week. The开工 rate of copper processing enterprises rebounded significantly, and the demand for downstream products increased [38][39]. - **Import Profit and Import Volume**: The copper import profit and recycled copper import profit increased week - on - week. The Shanghai - LME ratio rebounded, and the copper import window opened. The bonded - area inventory decreased [41]. - **Inventory Analysis**: After the holiday, domestic copper inventory accumulated rapidly, LME copper inventory increased significantly, and Comex copper inventory increased at a slower pace and continued to flow out slightly. The global visible copper inventory reached 1.307 million tons [44]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Deduction and Price Expectations - **Supply Deduction**: In March, China's electrolytic copper production is expected to increase by 52,800 tons month - on - month to 1.1968 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.51%. However, there will be concentrated maintenance of smelters from April to May, which is expected to lead to a decline in production [49]. - **Demand Expectations**: After the Spring Festival, the start - up rate of most copper processing enterprises rebounded. The start - up rates of electrolytic copper rod, copper strip, copper tube, brass rod, and copper cable enterprises in March all increased compared with the previous period [52]. - **Price Expectations**: The copper price will continue to be in a game between high - inventory reality and peak - season expectations. If destocking starts as expected, the copper price may rebound; otherwise, there is a risk of a second correction. Industrial customers can consider inventory hedging or procurement according to the price and inventory situation, and speculative customers can consider a volatility recovery strategy [55].

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai fell over 2% to 102,590 yuan, while London copper hovered around $13,000 [4] - The macroeconomic outlook is neutral to bearish, with a cooling U.S. employment market and support for a strong dollar impacting copper prices [5][19] - The fundamental outlook is neutral to bullish, with a fixed investment target of 180 billion yuan for the Southern Power Grid by 2026, and a planned investment of over 24 billion yuan in Q1, a 20% year-on-year increase [6][19] - Short-term price fluctuations are expected to remain resilient due to global strategic reserves intensifying supply-demand tensions [6][19] - Today's trading range for Shanghai copper is suggested to be between 101,000 and 105,000 yuan per ton, with strategies recommending reducing positions before the holiday [6][19] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The macro sentiment is showing marginal recovery, leading to an overall rebound in the non-ferrous sector [20] - Nickel supply is tight due to weather-related shipping disruptions in the Philippines and rainfall affecting Indonesian supply [20] - The stainless steel market faces oversupply pressures, with limited terminal demand, although suppliers are showing a strong willingness to maintain prices due to low arrivals and strong cost support [20][21] Group 3: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market experienced a general decline, with alumina futures prices slightly dropping while spot prices stabilized [22] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association indicated that a "reverse involution" policy for alumina will be introduced, but its impact will take time to materialize [22] - In January, 64.9% of the alumina industry was operating at a loss, with 23.8% of production facing cash cost losses [22] - The trading range for alumina futures is suggested to be between 2,600 and 2,900 yuan per ton, with a strategy of high selling and low buying within this range [23][22] Group 4: Zinc Market - Zinc prices showed weak fluctuations, influenced by mixed macroeconomic data from the U.S. [24] - February is expected to see a slight increase in processing fees, with a reduction in supply exceeding 50,000 tons due to production days and maintenance [24] - The demand side is affected by environmental controls in the north and reduced operations in galvanizing, leading to a return to a quiet market ahead of the holiday [24] Group 5: Lead Market - Lead prices showed a strong fluctuation, with tight supply from primary lead and a relatively loose supply from recycled lead due to transportation costs [25] - The market is entering a traditional off-season, with downstream purchasing primarily driven by essential needs, leading to an increase in inventory [25] - The trading range for lead futures is suggested to be between 16,500 and 17,500 yuan per ton [25] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced a slight rebound, although some gains were given back due to neutral to hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials [27] - The market is influenced by mixed economic data, with the ADP employment change significantly below expectations, while the ISM non-manufacturing PMI was slightly above expectations [27] - The long-term bullish logic for precious metals remains intact despite short-term volatility risks, with gold long positions recommended to be held [27]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [2] - Date: January 29, 2026 [3] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [4] Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices rebounded after hitting the bottom. Trump's statement on the US dollar intensified the market's bearish sentiment towards the US dollar, and the market's bullish sentiment increased during the day, causing Shanghai copper to recover its overnight losses. The spot price rose by 290 to 101,660, and the discount narrowed by 25 to 240. The spot import loss narrowed to around 430. The LME 0 - 3 contango widened to 93.8. The continuous inventory build - up in the LME market led to the collapse of the local price difference structure. The C - L spread was - 6, and there was further pressure on LME inventory build - up. COMEX inventory was also rising continuously. It is expected that the pressure on the domestic and foreign spot markets will increase in the short term. However, current copper prices are more affected by macro factors. With the Fed's interest - rate meeting approaching, it is widely expected that the Fed will pause rate cuts. Trump's statement on the US dollar and the change of the Fed chairman are putting pressure on the US dollar. It is expected that copper prices are likely to rise rather than fall under the background of a weak US dollar [11] Group 3: Industry News - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that it agreed to register the "Jiangtong" brand Grade A copper produced by Jiangtong Guoxing (Yantai) Copper Co., Ltd. on the exchange. The registered production capacity is 180,000 tons, and the standard price is implemented. As of the announcement date, the above products can be used for the performance and delivery of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper futures contracts [11] - A report released by Bain & Company shows that mining companies are using mergers and acquisitions (M&A) as a core growth strategy, which is driving the transaction market in Canada to reach its highest level in more than a decade. This strategic shift is due to multiple pressures faced by enterprises: continuously rising capital costs, lengthening development cycles of mining projects, and increasingly fierce market competition for high - quality mining assets. These three factors are reshaping the way mining enterprises achieve growth and improve operational efficiency. Bain & Company estimates that the number of global mining transactions with a scale of over $500 million in 2025 will increase by about 45% compared to 2024. Mining enterprises are choosing to achieve scale expansion and enhance operational resilience through mergers and acquisitions rather than investing in new greenfield development projects. The report also predicts that the next round of mining M&A transactions will be larger in scale and more complex in structure, and the success or failure of M&A operations will be a key factor in determining whether an enterprise can gain an advantage in the long - term in the industry [11]

Core Insights - LME metal futures showed mixed performance, with aluminum reaching its highest level since April 2022 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the close, copper was reported at $13,024, down $159, a decrease of 1.21% [1] - Aluminum closed at $3,212.5, up $17, an increase of 0.53%, marking a four-day consecutive rise [1] - Zinc was reported at $3,358.5, up $7.5, an increase of 0.22% [1] - Lead closed at $2,028, down $8, a decrease of 0.39% [1] - Tin was reported at $54,865, up $370, an increase of 0.68% [1] - Nickel closed at $18,235, down $355, a decrease of 1.91% [1]

Group 1: Copper - The main copper futures in Shanghai retreated to 103,660 yuan, while London copper hovered around 13,311 USD [2][12] - The macroeconomic outlook is neutral, with the US November PPI and core PPI year-on-year growth at 3%, slightly above expectations, and a minor adjustment in interest rate cut expectations [2][12] - The increase in copper warehouse receipts by 27,000 tons to 149,000 tons indicates a rise in inventory, while weak consumer demand continues to pressure prices [2][12] - Overall, copper prices are expected to maintain high volatility supported by pre-holiday stocking, with a reference range of 102,500 to 104,500 yuan per ton for the main futures [2][12] Group 2: Nickel & Stainless Steel - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced an adjustment of nickel ore RKAB quotas to 250-260 million tons by 2026, providing short-term support for nickel prices [3][13] - The nickel market lacks further supply-demand contradictions, and the tightening quota expectations have already been priced in [3][13] - The operational strategy for nickel and stainless steel is currently to remain on the sidelines, with reference ranges for nickel at 140,000 to 165,000 yuan per ton and stainless steel at 14,000 to 15,000 yuan per ton [3][13] Group 3: Aluminum - The price of alumina has shown a slight decline, with the 05 contract experiencing high opening and low closing, facing pressure from multiple moving averages [16][17] - The overall supply of alumina has slightly increased to around 96 million tons, but the market sentiment remains weak due to high prices affecting downstream consumption [16][17] - The operational range for the 05 alumina contract is set between 2,500 to 2,800 yuan per ton, with a recommendation to hold short positions [16][17] Group 4: Zinc - Zinc prices showed strong fluctuations, with macroeconomic indicators such as the US November PPI and retail sales exceeding expectations, creating a mixed market sentiment [19] - Domestic TC prices have shown signs of slowing down, with low acceptance for prices below 1,000 yuan, while overseas prices are also declining [19] - The operational strategy for zinc is to take profits on highs, with the main contract expected to trade between 24,500 to 25,500 yuan per ton [19] Group 5: Lead - Lead prices are experiencing strong fluctuations, with supply-side pressures easing slightly due to adjustments in primary smelter maintenance plans [20][21] - The recycling of waste batteries is expected to decline, impacting the supply of recycled lead, while consumer acceptance of new vehicle models is decreasing [20][21] - The operational range for lead is set between 17,000 to 18,000 yuan per ton, with a recommendation for range trading [20][21] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals are showing mixed performance, with gold and platinum slightly rising, while silver continues to break through strongly, and palladium shows a soft decline [10][22] - The market is influenced by concerns over the weakening independence of the Federal Reserve and the delayed decision on Trump's tariff policy by the US Supreme Court [10][22] - The operational strategy suggests holding long positions in gold while remaining cautious with silver, platinum, and palladium, with reference ranges for gold at 1,010 to 1,060 yuan per gram and silver at 22,000 to 24,500 yuan per kilogram [10][22]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the global macro - expectation may be slightly better than 2025, but still mainly feature structured fluctuations [2][54] - Supply disturbances may continue, with the mismatch between mining and smelting reaching an extreme, and the demand side may face real - world tests after the hype. The supply side remains one of the main factors driving copper price fluctuations [2][54] - Global copper inventories will continue to accumulate, which may define the high - price copper market as a bubble [2][54] - Copper prices are in the Conjuncture bubble stage, at the end of the strategic long - position and the beginning of the strategic short - position [2][54] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情简顾 - From 2020 - 2025, copper prices showed different trends. In 2025, copper prices broke through the Conjuncture high, with Shanghai copper rising 31.11% and LME copper rising 42.3%, mainly driven by a sharp increase in the fourth quarter [6] 3.2 2026年分析逻辑 - **Supply side**: The TC long - term price dropped to 0 in 2026, indicating extreme raw material disturbances. The "bullwhip effect" in the mining raw material sector reached its peak in 2025, and 2026 may see a turn [8] - **Demand side**: The global inventory cycle is at the bottom, and it is a weak cycle. Although overseas policies and new demands such as new energy and AI provide some support, the demand side is difficult to become the dominant factor [8] - **Conclusion**: 2026 may be a turning point year. Copper prices are still in the bubble stage, and investors should be vigilant against reverse - V fluctuations [8] 3.3全球经济与资本展望 - **China**: In 2026, as the start of the 15th Five - Year Plan, China is expected to improve. However, due to factors such as the real estate market, the new cycle is a weak one, and the year will still feature structured fluctuations [9][10] - **US**: 2026 is expected to be the end of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle. There may be potential changes in monetary and fiscal policies, which could bring significant fluctuations to the global market and copper prices [11][12] 3.4基本面分析 3.4.1供应端 - **Upstream mining**: Capital expenditure has been increasing since 2021. 2025 - 2026 may be a turning point for output. Although raw material supply may not improve significantly, the degree of tightness may not exceed 2025 [17][18][20] - **Mid - stream smelting**: The imbalance between raw materials and smelting capacity has led to heavy losses in the smelting sector. In 2026, there is a strong expectation of anti - involution, and TC may turn around [23][24] - **Global inventory**: Global copper inventories have been accumulating since 2024, and this trend is expected to continue in 2026 [28][29] 3.4.2消费端 - **Power sector**: Traditional power consumption remains stable, but the rapid growth in the green - power field has slowed down. New industries will provide long - term demand growth, but currently cannot replace traditional demand [36][37] - **Real estate and auto sectors**: In 2025, the auto industry was booming, while the real estate market continued to be weak. The real - estate market is in the downward phase of its cycle, providing limited support for copper demand [38][39][40] 3.4.3小结 - Supply disturbances are a core feature, and the contradiction between raw material supply and smelting capacity expansion will not change fundamentally in 2026. Demand is insufficient, and new demand cannot become the dominant factor in the short term [49] 3.5技术分析研究 - From the monthly K - line of LME copper, the bull market during the period of global prosperity - recession ended in 2011. The current bull market during the period of global recession - depression may end, and the nominal high may appear in the current upward cycle. The market in the depression period features extreme and volatile price movements [51] 3.6结论和建议 - **Research conclusion**: Similar to the core views of the report, including better global macro - expectations in 2026, continued supply disturbances, inventory accumulation, and copper prices in the bubble stage [54] - **Operation suggestions**: The high point in 2021 is the end of the strategic long - position. In the bubble stage, investors should focus on defense during the upward phase and seize opportunities during the downward phase, with key price levels of around $10,000/ton for LME copper and 80,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper [55]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals sector, with the industry index rising by 1.94% and individual stocks like Huayou Cobalt and Zhongkuang Resources showing significant gains [1] - Huayou Cobalt is expected to achieve a net profit of 5.85 billion to 6.45 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.8% to 55.24% [1] - The overall upward trend in non-ferrous metals is attributed to rising geopolitical tensions and loose liquidity, with copper futures reaching a historic high of $13,000 per ton and aluminum prices surpassing $3,000 per ton for the first time in over three years [1] Group 2 - According to Fangzheng Securities, the short-term global copper inventory is expected to continue adjusting, with supply shortages in copper mines reinforcing the upward price trend [2] - The aluminum sector is anticipated to benefit from low alumina prices, leading to an expansion in profit margins, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may further support aluminum prices [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-driven factors in cobalt pricing, particularly in relation to the Democratic Republic of Congo's efforts to secure pricing power [2] Group 3 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metals industry index account for 51.65% of the index, with major companies including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have reached an all-time high of $4500 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of over 70% this year [1] - Factors driving gold prices include geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela, potential conflicts involving Iran and Israel, uncertainties from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a weakening dollar, and rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Analysts from Dongfang Jincheng believe gold prices will remain in an upward trend due to rising US debt risks, strong global central bank demand for gold, and ongoing interest rate cuts in the US [1] Group 2: Copper Market Dynamics - Copper futures have surpassed $12,000 per ton for the first time, driven by supply disruptions from mine shutdowns, surging industrial demand, concerns over potential copper tariffs, and expectations of monetary easing from the Federal Reserve [1] - The price of copper has increased by over 38% this year, potentially marking the largest annual gain since 2009 [1] - Citigroup forecasts that in a bullish scenario, copper prices could reach $15,000 per ton as a result of a weaker dollar and further interest rate cuts, attracting more investors [2] Group 3: Broader Non-Ferrous Metals Outlook - The non-ferrous metals sector offers diverse investment strategies, including precious metals like gold for hedging, and strategic metals like lithium and rare earths benefiting from technological advancements [2] - Analysts from CITIC Securities and Zhongtai Securities expect the non-ferrous metals sector to continue its bullish trend, driven by rigid supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical tensions [2] - The Huabao ETF, which covers a wide range of non-ferrous metals, has seen significant inflows, indicating investor confidence in the sector's future performance [2][4]

Group 1: Gold Market - London spot gold has reached an all-time high of $4500 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of over 70% this year [1][6] - Domestic gold prices in China have also surged, with Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au99.99 price surpassing 1000 yuan per gram [1][6] - Factors driving gold prices include geopolitical tensions, a weakening dollar, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][6] Group 2: Copper Market - LME copper futures have broken through $12,000 per ton for the first time, reaching a historical high of $12,133 per ton on December 24, with a year-to-date increase of over 38% [1][7] - Citigroup predicts that copper prices could reach $15,000 in a bullish scenario due to a weaker dollar and further interest rate cuts [7] - The copper market is influenced by supply disruptions, industrial demand, and concerns over potential copper tariffs [1][7] Group 3: Broader Non-Ferrous Metals Market - The non-ferrous metals sector is seen as a diversified investment opportunity, encompassing precious metals like gold, strategic metals like lithium and rare earths, and industrial metals like copper and aluminum [7] - Institutions believe that the non-ferrous metals sector will continue its bullish trend, with various firms expressing optimism about the ongoing market conditions [7][8] - The Huabao non-ferrous ETF (159876) has shown positive performance, reflecting investor confidence in the sector, with a daily inflow of 9.81 million yuan [8][10] Group 4: Investment Strategies - A comprehensive investment approach through ETFs covering various non-ferrous metals can help mitigate risks associated with investing in single metals [10] - The Huabao ETF and its linked funds provide exposure to a wide range of metals, making them suitable for portfolio diversification [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals sector, with the industry index rising by 1.24% and individual stocks like Chihong Zn & Ge (up 5.19%) and Baotai Co. (up 4.31%) showing significant gains [1] - The recent surge in copper futures, reaching new highs, is attributed to ongoing risks related to U.S. import tariffs on copper, which are expected to support prices [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for the average copper price in 2026 from $10,650 per ton to $11,400 per ton, citing persistent risks that will sustain copper prices [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities believes that as long as the Federal Reserve remains in a rate-cutting cycle, there will be upward momentum for non-ferrous metal prices [2] - Dongfang Securities points out that during the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, even small supply-demand gaps in physical assets can lead to significant price elasticity, indicating a potential super cycle for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [2] - The non-ferrous ETF fund closely tracks the industry index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metals sector [2] Group 3 - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metals industry index account for 52.34% of the index, with companies like Zijin Mining and China Molybdenum leading the list [2]