警惕反 V — 2026 年沪铜年报 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 有色小组 研究员: 钟远 从业资格号：F0303681 投资咨询号：Z0011824 初审：张莎 从业资格号：F03088817 投资咨询号：Z0019577 复审：赵肖肖 从业资格号：F0303938 投资咨询号：Z0022015 警惕反 V —— 2026 年沪铜年报 摘要： 1.中国十五五开局之年+海外货币温和/财政宽松预期，叠加全球库存周期底部温 和上升，2026 年全球宏观预期总体或略好于 2025 年（底部+蓄势为主），但依 旧以结构化波动为主。 2.供应扰动或继续，矿产和冶炼的错配矛盾爆发，长鞭效应传导达到极致，而需 求端的宏大叙事在市场情绪热议后或将面临现实考验，供应端依旧为铜价波动的 主要矛盾之一。 3.全球库存延续累库。2024 年全球库存开启了累库周期，2025-2026 年库存趋势 延续，有望对铜价高位的行情性质带来了定性-泡沐。 4.铜价处在康波泡沫阶段，一切以突破 2006/08+2011 年或 2021-2022 年高点的价 格上涨全部定义成泡沫，即：铜价处在多空转换的战略多头尾部和战 ...

截至2026年1月6日 09:36，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)强势上涨1.94%，成分股华友钴业(603799)上 涨5.35%，中矿资源(002738)上涨4.73%，华锡有色(600301)上涨3.31%，东阳光(600673)，电投能源 (002128)等个股跟涨。有色ETF基金(159880)上涨1.65%， 冲击4连涨。最新价报2.03元。 消息面上，华友钴业预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润58.5亿元至64.5亿元，与上年同期 （法定披露数据）相比，同比增长40.8%至55.24%。伴随区域局势升温和流动性宽松，有色金属年内整 体上行，伦铜期货历史首次触及每吨13000美元的整数关口，铝价逾三年来首次突破每吨3,000美元。镍 价在12月录得2024年4月以来最大单月涨幅后，再度上涨1%。 方正证券指出，铜：预计短期全球铜库存流向持续调整、铜矿端供给短缺逻辑持续强化、美联储中期宽 松预期维持，铜价有望继续向上突破。铝：氧化铝低位运行支撑单吨利润走扩，供给约束确定行业供给 紧平衡，美联储降息周期中铝价有望持续突破。黄金：权益市场PE（NTM）处于历史低位，关注黄金 股的估值弹 ...

12月24日，伦敦现货黄金有史以来首次站上4500美元/盎司。今年以来，国际金价累计涨幅超70%。在外盘带动下，国内金价同步突破关键大关，上海黄金 交易所现货黄金（Au99.99）价格在12月23日突破1000元/克后继续走高。 花旗集团表示，在牛市情境下，随着美元走软和美联储降息进一步提振铜的吸引力，促使投资者更积极地涌入，铜价可能触及1.5万美元。 值得关注的是，相比单一黄金或铜，有色金属板块涉及的面更广，投资策略更多元——不仅有黄金等贵金属作为保值和避险工具，还有稀土、锂等战略金属 能跟随科技发展（比如"锂"受益于新能源车的发展，"稀土"在高端先进制造中不可或缺），更有铜、铝等工业金属受益于经济复苏，制造业与基建兴起。 中信建投证券认为，在四季度全球宏观经济波动加剧与地缘局势冲突升级的背景下，有色金属凭借供需刚性、"反内卷"政策红利及避险属性，成为中长期资 产配置的核心标的。 展望后市，机构普遍认为，有色金属板块有望延续牛市行情：中泰证券看好有色全面牛市行情，中信建投认为有色牛市有望再进阶，中信证券认为大宗商品 的投资热度有望延续。 盘面上，12月24日，有色金属板块冲高回落，同标的指数规模最大的有色E ...

Group 1: Gold Market - London spot gold has reached an all-time high of $4500 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of over 70% this year [1][6] - Domestic gold prices in China have also surged, with Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au99.99 price surpassing 1000 yuan per gram [1][6] - Factors driving gold prices include geopolitical tensions, a weakening dollar, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][6] Group 2: Copper Market - LME copper futures have broken through $12,000 per ton for the first time, reaching a historical high of $12,133 per ton on December 24, with a year-to-date increase of over 38% [1][7] - Citigroup predicts that copper prices could reach $15,000 in a bullish scenario due to a weaker dollar and further interest rate cuts [7] - The copper market is influenced by supply disruptions, industrial demand, and concerns over potential copper tariffs [1][7] Group 3: Broader Non-Ferrous Metals Market - The non-ferrous metals sector is seen as a diversified investment opportunity, encompassing precious metals like gold, strategic metals like lithium and rare earths, and industrial metals like copper and aluminum [7] - Institutions believe that the non-ferrous metals sector will continue its bullish trend, with various firms expressing optimism about the ongoing market conditions [7][8] - The Huabao non-ferrous ETF (159876) has shown positive performance, reflecting investor confidence in the sector, with a daily inflow of 9.81 million yuan [8][10] Group 4: Investment Strategies - A comprehensive investment approach through ETFs covering various non-ferrous metals can help mitigate risks associated with investing in single metals [10] - The Huabao ETF and its linked funds provide exposure to a wide range of metals, making them suitable for portfolio diversification [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals sector, with the industry index rising by 1.24% and individual stocks like Chihong Zn & Ge (up 5.19%) and Baotai Co. (up 4.31%) showing significant gains [1] - The recent surge in copper futures, reaching new highs, is attributed to ongoing risks related to U.S. import tariffs on copper, which are expected to support prices [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for the average copper price in 2026 from $10,650 per ton to $11,400 per ton, citing persistent risks that will sustain copper prices [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities believes that as long as the Federal Reserve remains in a rate-cutting cycle, there will be upward momentum for non-ferrous metal prices [2] - Dongfang Securities points out that during the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, even small supply-demand gaps in physical assets can lead to significant price elasticity, indicating a potential super cycle for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [2] - The non-ferrous ETF fund closely tracks the industry index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metals sector [2] Group 3 - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metals industry index account for 52.34% of the index, with companies like Zijin Mining and China Molybdenum leading the list [2]

Core Viewpoint - Recent surge in copper prices driven by strong demand from emerging sectors such as AI, energy storage, photovoltaics, wind power, and electric vehicles, alongside supply constraints and structural inventory issues [3][4][10] Market Dynamics - LME copper futures reached a historical high of $11,540 per ton, marking a 31% increase since 2025 [3][4] - Shanghai copper futures surpassed 90,000 yuan per ton for the first time, closing at 90,780 yuan, with a daily increase of 2% [3] - The market sentiment is influenced by a macro environment of loose monetary policy and a tight balance in copper supply and demand [3][10] Supply Constraints - Major copper mines in Indonesia, Chile, and the Democratic Republic of Congo have reduced output due to various disruptions, leading to a negative growth rate in copper production [5] - The processing fees for copper concentrate have dropped to negative values, forcing reductions in smelting output [5] - LME registered warehouse stocks decreased by 32.3% year-on-year, indicating a significant reduction in available copper for delivery [5][6] Demand Growth - Global copper consumption is expected to grow by nearly 800,000 tons annually, driven by both traditional and emerging sectors [4][7] - Asian demand contributes over 60% of the increase, primarily through aggressive purchasing rather than a sudden spike in absolute consumption [8] - The demand for copper in the domestic market remains resilient, particularly in the real estate and appliance sectors [7][10] Investment Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current copper price trend is supported by long-term structural factors, including the rise of new industries and persistent supply shortages [9][10] - The expectation of continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve is likely to sustain high copper prices [10] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the recent surge in copper prices may be temporary, as supply is expected to meet global demand in the long run [11]

Core Viewpoint - Recent strong upward movement in copper futures prices, with LME three-month copper reaching a historical high of $11,540 per ton on December 3, reflecting a cumulative increase of 31% since 2025 [2][12] Market Dynamics - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a loose monetary policy, a tight balance in fundamentals, and structural inventory issues, which have created a positive feedback loop for price increases [2][12] - The first-time breach of 90,000 yuan per ton for Shanghai copper futures, with a peak of 91,450 yuan per ton on December 4, indicates strong market sentiment [2][12] Supply and Demand Factors - The rise in copper prices is driven by increased consumption from emerging sectors such as AI computing power, energy storage, photovoltaics, wind power, and electric vehicles, with an annual increase in global copper demand of nearly 800,000 tons [3][14] - Supply bottlenecks have been exacerbated by production disruptions at major mines in Indonesia, Chile, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to a negative growth rate in annual mineral output [3][15] - The COMEX-LME premium remains significant, with an average of $330 per ton, despite a drop in the third and fourth quarters [3][14] Inventory Changes - As of December 3, registered LME copper warehouse receipts decreased by 32.3% year-on-year, while canceled receipts surged by 802.78%, indicating a sharp reduction in available spot copper [4][15] - The shift in market structure from contango to backwardation has amplified price elasticity, driven by concerns over local inventory shortages in Asia [4][16] Future Outlook - The ongoing demand growth in sectors such as electric vehicles and renewable energy is expected to continue driving copper consumption, with potential supply shortages anticipated post-2025 [5][17] - Analysts suggest that the current copper price trends are influenced by macroeconomic factors, fundamental supply-demand dynamics, and market sentiment, particularly in light of Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [7][20] - Investment strategies should focus on trend-following approaches, given the long-term nature of supply constraints and emerging industry growth [8][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Last week, Shanghai copper increased in volume and price, mainly due to the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the weakening of the US dollar index. On Friday night, copper prices continued to rise, with LME copper breaking through the $11,000 mark and hitting a new high, while Shanghai copper approached the 89,000 mark. Technically, the open interest of Shanghai copper increased from 510,000 contracts to 560,000 contracts last week, showing strong short - term upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the end - October high. If it breaks through, it may maintain a strong trend in the short term [6][63]. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices rebounded with a decrease in positions, and there was a trend of increasing positions and rising prices on Friday night. This rebound was mainly driven by macro factors, such as the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The decline in the Shanghai - LME ratio indicated that the rise was mainly led by the external market. Globally, the low inventory of electrolytic aluminum supported the price. However, as aluminum prices rebounded, domestic downstream demand decreased, and the spot discount widened. Technically, attention can be paid to the pressure at the 22,000 mark [7][63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - Last week, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut continued to rise, with the probability of a December rate cut increasing from 70% to nearly 90%. Correspondingly, the US dollar index weakened from the 100 mark, which was beneficial to non - ferrous metals and precious metals [11]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Quantity - Price Trend - Last week, Shanghai copper increased in volume and price. On Friday night, copper prices continued to rise, with LME copper breaking through the $11,000 mark and Shanghai copper approaching the 89,000 mark. The open interest of Shanghai copper increased from 510,000 contracts to 560,000 contracts, indicating increased capital attention and strong short - term upward momentum [6][63]. 3.2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - Last week, the port inventory of copper ore continued to rise from a low level and was close to the same - period level in previous years. On November 28, Mysteel's port inventory of copper ore was 674,000 tons, an increase of 78,000 tons from the previous week. In November, with the rise in sulfuric acid prices, the upstream smelting profit also rebounded [25]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Copper Stockpiling - On November 27, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic copper was 171,600 tons, a weekly decrease of 20,500 tons, while the inventory in COMEX + LME was 574,800 tons, a weekly increase of 18,400 tons [27]. 3.2.4 Downstream Primary Sector - As copper prices rose, the downstream market showed a situation of "not prosperous in the peak season", and the copper product start - up rate declined month - on - month in October. In November, the overall downstream entered the off - season, and copper prices remained high. It is expected that the downstream capacity utilization rate will remain at a low level in November [29]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Quantity - Price Trend - Last week, aluminum prices rebounded with a decrease in positions, and there was a trend of increasing positions and rising prices on Friday night. The decline in the Shanghai - LME ratio indicated that the rise was mainly led by the external market. Technically, attention can be paid to the pressure at the 22,000 mark [7][63]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - On November 21, the port inventory of bauxite was 28.0705 million tons, an increase of 46,900 tons from the previous week and an increase of 9.7005 million tons compared with the same period in 2024. Last week, alumina was weak, with the main contract price falling below the 2700 mark, while aluminum prices rose with the non - ferrous metal sector, and the profit of upstream electrolytic aluminum widened [45][47]. 3.3.3 Slowing Depletion of Electrolytic Aluminum - In November, as aluminum prices continued to rise, overseas electrolytic aluminum showed a stockpiling trend, and the depletion of domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory slowed down. On November 27, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 590,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous week, and the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 544,700 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous week [50]. 3.3.4 Downstream Primary Sector - Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods generally declined from a high level, mainly due to the rebound of aluminum prices, which led to a decrease in downstream demand. The inventory of aluminum rods remained at a low level, with the in - factory inventory at 91,400 tons, a slight increase of 2,900 tons from the previous week [56][59].

Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Shanghai copper first rose to a record high of 89,270 but then fell. After the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP and Chairman Powell hinted it might be the last cut this year, and due to the Sino - US meeting in Busan, the market's selling sentiment increased. The spot price rose 300 to 88,065, the spot discount narrowed to 55, the social inventory decreased by 0.19 tons this week, and the spot import loss was 880 with the import window closed [10]. - Strategy: The short - term market has priced in the positive news of Sino - US relations and Fed rate cuts. Considering the tight copper supply at the end of the year and the initiative of the CSPT group, investors can still buy on dips [10]. Group 3: Industry News - Anglo American's Collahuasi Mine: The mine in Chile is facing ore quality decline, which will limit next year's production. It is expected to return to normal production in 2027 with an output of about 600,000 tons [11]. - ENAMI's New Copper Smelter: ENAMI has obtained environmental approval for a new $1.7 billion copper smelter. It will process up to 850,000 tons of copper concentrate and produce up to 240,000 tons of cathode copper annually [11]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: In the afternoon of the day, the macro - atmosphere warmed up, and the copper price increased with rising positions. The main contract price broke through the high on Monday and approached the 89,000 mark. LME copper also broke through the high in May 2024 during the session. The warming of both domestic and foreign macro - environments, combined with the expected supply contraction, led to the continuous increase in copper price with rising positions [4]. - **沪铝**: In the afternoon, the macro - atmosphere warmed up, and the aluminum price increased with rising positions. As the macro - environment improved and the copper price rose strongly, the aluminum price followed. At the industrial level, the inventory of downstream aluminum rods decreased, while the inventory reduction of intermediate electrolytic aluminum slowed down due to the high aluminum price. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [5]. - **沪镍**: In the afternoon, the position of Shanghai nickel decreased while the price rebounded, especially at the end of the session. Previously, when the macro - environment improved and non - ferrous metals prices rose, nickel rebounded with a decreasing position but lacked strength. With the improvement of the macro - environment today, the nickel price rebounded again with a decreasing position. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the high on Monday [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: The Trump administration in the United States on Friday overturned an air - pollution regulation of the previous administration, which imposed stricter restrictions on the emissions of copper smelters. The copper rule finalized in May 2024 required smelters to control pollutants such as lead, arsenic, mercury, benzene, and dioxins according to the latest US federal air standards. The US announcement provided a two - year exemption for affected fixed sources, aiming to promote US mineral security by reducing the regulatory burden on domestic copper producers [8]. - **Nickel**: On October 29, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,400 - 123,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,300 - 2,500 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowinning nickel was - 300 - 100 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report presents multiple charts related to copper, including domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, copper monthly spread, etc. These charts show the inventory and price spread trends of copper from different aspects [10][11][12]. - **Aluminum**: The charts for aluminum include the aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina inventory, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and aluminum rod inventory, which reflect the market situation of aluminum [20][22][24]. - **Nickel**: The nickel - related charts cover the nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel price trend, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, and nickel monthly spread, providing information on the nickel market [32][34][36].