12月16日，现货黄金在本周一（10月15日）经历了冲高回落的剧烈波动，由于市场对美联储降息的预期 以及美元汇率的变动，现货黄金一度逼近4350美元关口的心理高位，这几乎触及了上周五创下的逾七周 新高。然而乌克兰和谈的进展为全球金市带来了短期压力，避险需求的减弱导致金价涨幅收窄，但美国 就业数据的公布将成为下一个关键转折点。如果数据强劲，可能进一步提振美元并压制金价；反之，若 数据疲弱，则可能重燃降息预期，推动金价反弹。投资者需密切关注地缘政治动态与经济指标的互动， 以把握市场机会。在当前不确定性环境下，黄金作为避险资产的角色仍将持续发挥作用，但短期波动性 不可忽视。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 责任编辑：陈平 责任编辑：陈平 12月16日，现货黄金在本周一（10月15日）经历了冲高回落的剧烈波动，由于市场对美联储降息的预期 以及美元汇率的变动，现货黄金一度逼近4350美元关口的心理高位，这几乎触及了上周五创下的逾七周 新高。 ...

前言： 能力不在脸上，本事不在嘴上！在投资的路上我不敢保证能带你赚多少，因为只要你配合，盈利从来没 有上限，每一位学员我都用自己最大的能力为其谋取利润，如果你还沉迷亏损，那我无话可说，但是若 想盈利，请找我金晟富，有实力才能这么自信！（有缘认识是一种缘分，多一个朋友也不会让你损失什 么，先看实力再谈合作，你赢我陪你君临天下，你输我陪你东山再起！)需要带单的朋友，可在博主个 人简介寻找联系！ 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周二（12月16日）亚市早盘，现货黄金震荡微涨，目前交投于4308.64美元/盎司。现货黄金在本周一经 历了冲高回落的剧烈波动，由于市场对美联储降息的预期以及美元汇率的变动，现货黄金一度逼近4350 美元关口的心理高位，这几乎触及了上周五创下的逾七周新高。然而，随着避险情绪的迅速冷却，金价 很快回吐了大部分涨幅，最终收报4304.91美元/盎司，仅微涨约0.1%。这一变化的主要驱动力来自于美 国官员与乌克兰总统泽连斯基围绕结束战争的重要会谈取得的进展，这显著降低了市场的避险需求。与 此同时，全球交易商的目光正转向即将公布的关键美国就业数据，这些数据将进一步揭示美联 ...

Core Viewpoint - The share of the US dollar in global central bank foreign exchange reserves is gradually declining, reaching its lowest level in 30 years at 56.32% by the end of Q2 2023, a decrease of 1.47 percentage points from the end of Q1 2023 [1][3]. Group 1: Dollar's Decline in Reserves - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that the decline in the dollar's share is primarily due to exchange rate fluctuations, with the dollar index dropping over 10% in the first half of the year, marking the largest decline since 1973 [3][6]. - Despite the decline in the dollar's share, if exchange rate changes are excluded, the dollar's share in global reserves remained stable in Q2 2023 [3][6]. - The dollar's performance against other currencies, such as a 7.9% depreciation against the euro and over 11% against the Swiss franc in the first half of the year, contributed significantly to the reduction in its reserve share [3][6]. Group 2: Other Currencies' Performance - The euro's share in global central bank reserves increased to over 21%, the highest since 2021, despite a decrease in its total holdings, attributed to its significant appreciation in Q2 2023 [3][6]. - The IMF noted that the dollar's share in global reserves fell by approximately 92% due to exchange rate factors from April to June 2023 [3][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook on the Dollar - Analysts from UBS predict that the dollar may weaken further in the coming months due to the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, large unhedged dollar-denominated overseas investments, and high US twin deficits [6]. - Noted economist Hong Hao anticipates a significant depreciation of the dollar over the next 5 to 7 years due to worsening US fiscal and trade deficits and credit deterioration [6].

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential for Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting that while the feasibility is high, economic constraints and pressure from Gulf countries may limit this possibility [3][13][77] - Following the ceasefire announcement between Israel and Iran on June 24, market concerns regarding the blockade have significantly decreased, with the implied probability of Iran blocking the Strait dropping from 53% to 17% [3][20][77] - Historical data shows that Iran's threats to block the Strait have typically resulted in short-term price increases for oil, with significant supply disruptions potentially pushing prices above $130 per barrel if a blockade were to occur [4][28][47] Group 2 - The article outlines that approximately 20% of global oil consumption is transported through the Strait of Hormuz, and a blockade could create a supply gap of 8.56 million barrels per day, even with alternative pipeline routes [4][37][47] - The impact of oil price fluctuations on inflation is discussed, indicating that a $10 per barrel change in oil prices could affect the annual CPI inflation by about 0.2 percentage points in the U.S. [5][51][78] - The relationship between rising oil prices and the U.S. dollar is explored, suggesting that a significant increase in oil prices could strengthen the dollar, as it has historically shown a correlation with oil price movements [5][61][78] Group 3 - The article notes that the influence of rising oil prices on gold prices is ambiguous, as increases in oil prices can lead to higher inflation expectations while also pushing nominal interest rates up, creating conflicting effects on gold [6][68][78] - Historical analysis indicates that during previous oil supply shocks, gold prices have reacted variably, often driven by geopolitical tensions rather than oil price movements alone [6][68][78]

Group 1 - The potential non-farm employment growth in the U.S. is expected to decline significantly from over 100,000 jobs per month to less than 10,000 by the end of next year, leading to a reduction in the potential economic growth rate from slightly above 2% to 1.4-1.6% [1] - The average monthly job creation in the private sector over the past two years has been approximately 172,000, indicating a stark contrast with the anticipated future potential growth [1] - The Bank of Japan's bond purchase plan lacks long-term guidance, creating ongoing market uncertainty regarding the scale of bond purchases post-April 2027 [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's economic projections reveal the highest level of divergence in interest rate paths for 2025 in the past decade, with a median expectation of two rate cuts (50 basis points) but a range from no cuts to a 75 basis point reduction [2] - The disparity between the most common and second most common predictions for interest rate changes has reached 50 basis points, the largest difference in ten years, indicating fundamental disagreements among policymakers on balancing inflation control and economic growth [2] - Despite downgrades in the U.S. credit rating by major agencies, foreign investment in U.S. Treasury bonds remains strong due to the lack of reliable alternatives and the relatively high yields offered [2] Group 3 - Key factors influencing the global market include the potential for tariff agreements among countries, fluctuations in the dollar's exchange rate, and rising risks associated with the U.S. deficit [3] - There is an expectation that major countries may reach partial consensus on tariff issues and extend grace periods while implementing specific industry tariff measures [3] - The U.S. deficit risk is anticipated to rise, which may keep U.S. Treasury yields between 4% and 5% [3]