美元在全球央行外汇储备中的占比正在逐渐下降，当前已降至三十年来最低水平。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）日前发布的全球外汇储备货币构成数据（COFER）显示，今年二季度末，美元在全球外汇储备中占比56.32%，较一季度末下 降了1.47个百分点。这一比例已跌至1995年以来最低水平。 对于美元占比降低这一现象，IMF同步发布文章称，汇率变动是主要因素。"如果不考虑汇率变动的因素，第二季度美元在全球外汇储备中的占比保持稳 定。" 回顾上半年，美元指数跌幅超过10%，创下1973年以来最大跌幅。其中，第二季度，美元兑欧元贬值7.9%，上半年贬值10.6%；美元兑瑞士法郎贬值 9.6%，上半年贬值超过11%。IMF报告称，这是美元兑瑞士法郎十多年来上半年表现最差的一次。 "这意味着，即便各国央行未对其投资组合做出任何调整，以美元计价的非美元资产价值也有所上升，从而导致美元资产所占份额相应减少。"IMF认为， 今年4月至6月，美元在全球央行储备中份额约92%的降幅由汇率因素引起。 欧元也是一个典型案例。IMF认为，在某些情形下，货币升值能够抵消其在全球央行储备中整体持有量的下降。比如，尽管今年第二季度欧元在全球央行 官方 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential for Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting that while the feasibility is high, economic constraints and pressure from Gulf countries may limit this possibility [3][13][77] - Following the ceasefire announcement between Israel and Iran on June 24, market concerns regarding the blockade have significantly decreased, with the implied probability of Iran blocking the Strait dropping from 53% to 17% [3][20][77] - Historical data shows that Iran's threats to block the Strait have typically resulted in short-term price increases for oil, with significant supply disruptions potentially pushing prices above $130 per barrel if a blockade were to occur [4][28][47] Group 2 - The article outlines that approximately 20% of global oil consumption is transported through the Strait of Hormuz, and a blockade could create a supply gap of 8.56 million barrels per day, even with alternative pipeline routes [4][37][47] - The impact of oil price fluctuations on inflation is discussed, indicating that a $10 per barrel change in oil prices could affect the annual CPI inflation by about 0.2 percentage points in the U.S. [5][51][78] - The relationship between rising oil prices and the U.S. dollar is explored, suggesting that a significant increase in oil prices could strengthen the dollar, as it has historically shown a correlation with oil price movements [5][61][78] Group 3 - The article notes that the influence of rising oil prices on gold prices is ambiguous, as increases in oil prices can lead to higher inflation expectations while also pushing nominal interest rates up, creating conflicting effects on gold [6][68][78] - Historical analysis indicates that during previous oil supply shocks, gold prices have reacted variably, often driven by geopolitical tensions rather than oil price movements alone [6][68][78]

Group 1 - The potential non-farm employment growth in the U.S. is expected to decline significantly from over 100,000 jobs per month to less than 10,000 by the end of next year, leading to a reduction in the potential economic growth rate from slightly above 2% to 1.4-1.6% [1] - The average monthly job creation in the private sector over the past two years has been approximately 172,000, indicating a stark contrast with the anticipated future potential growth [1] - The Bank of Japan's bond purchase plan lacks long-term guidance, creating ongoing market uncertainty regarding the scale of bond purchases post-April 2027 [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's economic projections reveal the highest level of divergence in interest rate paths for 2025 in the past decade, with a median expectation of two rate cuts (50 basis points) but a range from no cuts to a 75 basis point reduction [2] - The disparity between the most common and second most common predictions for interest rate changes has reached 50 basis points, the largest difference in ten years, indicating fundamental disagreements among policymakers on balancing inflation control and economic growth [2] - Despite downgrades in the U.S. credit rating by major agencies, foreign investment in U.S. Treasury bonds remains strong due to the lack of reliable alternatives and the relatively high yields offered [2] Group 3 - Key factors influencing the global market include the potential for tariff agreements among countries, fluctuations in the dollar's exchange rate, and rising risks associated with the U.S. deficit [3] - There is an expectation that major countries may reach partial consensus on tariff issues and extend grace periods while implementing specific industry tariff measures [3] - The U.S. deficit risk is anticipated to rise, which may keep U.S. Treasury yields between 4% and 5% [3]