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美银:美政府停摆结束后数据“洪流”来袭 美元波动性将上升
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-14 00:05
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the end of the U.S. government shutdown and the resumption of economic data releases are expected to increase volatility in the foreign exchange market, particularly for the U.S. dollar [1][2] - Bank of America strategists noted that the sensitivity of the dollar to global interest rates has reached its highest level since the first quarter of this year, indicating potential fluctuations in the dollar as economic data is released [1] - The resumption of data releases is deemed critical, as it may lead to increased volatility in U.S. interest rate differentials, which are significant for foreign exchange traders [1] Group 2 - Recent months have seen a significant decline in measures of currency volatility, attributed to cautious investor assessments of global tariffs and central bank monetary policies [2] - The narrowing of yield differentials, particularly as several central banks, including the European Central Bank, approach the end of their easing cycles, has contributed to a calmer foreign exchange market [2] - The dollar's performance has shifted to reflect growth rather than inflation, as there has been a lack of data to validate economic resilience, leading to a more neutral positioning among investors regarding the dollar [2]