周四，里夫斯反击了对其政府支出计划的批评，该计划将通过把英国的税收负担提高至二战后最高水平 来为额外的福利支出提供资金。政府表示，计划增税260亿英镑(约合340亿美元)。 英镑兑美元最新下跌0.2%，至1.3202，但本周迄今为止已上涨约0.85%，有望创下自8月初以来的最大单 周涨幅。 Convera 首席外汇和宏观策略师乔治·维西在给客户的一份报告中表示："英镑在预算案后的上涨，更像 是释然性反弹的特征，而非持续趋势的开端。""英镑/美元突破了1.32美元，因为投资者普遍欢迎预算案 中发出的、关于更有纪律借贷路径的信号，但整体市场反应平淡，表明大部分财政方案已被市场消化， 英镑的涨幅可能也反映了事件发生前对冲头寸的解除。" 智通财经APP获悉，英镑本周有望创下三个多月以来最佳单周表现，这表明在英国财政大臣雷切尔·里 夫斯公布预算案后，投资者松了一口气。 与此同时，欧元兑英镑汇率保持稳定，约为87.58便士，低于近期高点。 新预算案的隐忧 分析师对预算案的评价褒贬不一。德意志银行分析师Sanjay Raja评价称，此次预算"好于预期"，财政缓 冲的翻倍可能降低通胀，从而为英国央行降息创造条件。 英国智库财 ...

法国兴业银行的策略师在一份报告中称，英国定于未来几年生效的税收措施可能会无法兑现并令投资者 失望。这些策略师称，如果计划中的增税措施未能兑现，长期英国国债收益率有上升风险，英镑有下跌 风险。30年期英国国债收益率下跌1个基点，最新报5.199%。英镑下跌0.2%，至1.3209美元。 ...

Core Viewpoints - The evolution of the international monetary system has consistently exhibited a stable "center-periphery" structure, where a few currencies dominate while the majority remain peripheral [2][3][4] - The stability of the monetary order is rooted in the nature of money as a "high-order belief," where individuals accept currency based on mutual trust in its value and acceptance by others [2][28] - The transition from one dominant currency to another is rare and often requires a combination of economic shifts and institutional reforms to facilitate the emergence of a new center [3][4] Historical Evolution of the International Monetary System - The historical perspective shows that the monetary order has maintained internal stability, with dominant currencies typically lasting one to two centuries [5][6] - The shift from the Spanish dollar to the Dutch guilder marked a transition from metal-based currency to credit-based systems, emphasizing the importance of financial innovation and institutional credibility [9][11] - The establishment of the classical gold standard in the 19th century created a more structured international monetary order, driven by the need for exchange rate stability and transaction efficiency [12][13] The Role of Trust and Institutional Frameworks - The essence of money is a social contract based on trust, where its value is derived from the issuer's commitment to honor debts [27][28] - Sovereign currencies differ from commodity or cryptocurrency due to state backing and legal tender status, ensuring their acceptance and circulation [28][29] - The natural monopoly of money arises from network effects, where increased usage enhances liquidity and reduces transaction costs, leading to a self-reinforcing cycle [29][30] Current Trends and Future Outlook - The current dollar-centric system is facing challenges as global trade and capital flows diversify, with potential for the renminbi to rise as a reserve currency through reforms and market-driven mechanisms [5][26] - The international monetary system is undergoing structural changes, with emerging economies seeking greater independence in currency management and exchange rate flexibility [25][26] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and financial sanctions have prompted a reassessment of the dollar's safety as an asset, leading to increased diversification in the global monetary landscape [26][39]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts the Federal Reserve will initiate rate cuts in December, reversing their previous forecast of a delay until January [1] - The research team led by Michael Feroli noted support for recent rate cuts from several Federal Reserve officials, particularly from New York Fed President Williams [1] - Morgan Stanley now expects two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in December and January [1] Group 2: UK Economic Outlook - Berenberg Bank indicates that the UK's fiscal space has increased, which supports the possibility of rate cuts by the Bank of England [2] - Deutsche Bank reports that the UK budget is better than expected, with fiscal buffers increasing from £10 billion to just below £22 billion, and public borrowing expected to decline [3] - BlackRock analysts believe the UK budget will boost market confidence and alleviate political concerns, with the government expanding fiscal space to £22 billion [2] Group 3: Currency and Market Reactions - Morgan Stanley has ended its bullish stance on the British pound, suggesting that the recent budget may have provided the last positive catalyst for the currency [3] - Analysts noted that the correlation between the pound and the stock market has dropped to zero, diminishing the currency's appeal [3] Group 4: Japan's Economic Policy - Fitch Ratings warns that Japan's new stimulus plan could pose risks to its credit rating if it leads to prolonged monetary easing and increased government debt [4] - The stimulus plan, amounting to approximately 3.4% of GDP, has uncertain fiscal impacts due to its reliance on non-fiscal measures and potential implementation risks [4] - Analysts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia suggest that political factors may delay the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike until January [4] Group 5: Industry Insights - China Galaxy Securities forecasts a "bumpy" trend for the computer industry in 2025, with a focus on AI applications and the acceleration of model parity by 2026 [5] - CITIC Securities anticipates downward pressure on beef supply by 2026, with a cumulative reduction in stock exceeding 10% since 2024 [6] - CITIC Securities has raised its lithium price forecast upper limit to 120,000 yuan per ton, driven by strong demand in the energy storage battery sector [6]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has closed its bullish stance on the British pound, indicating that the currency may have reached its last favorable catalyst recently [1] - Following the UK budget announcement, the pound briefly rebounded against the dollar, but this upward trend is likely to fade [1][4] - The attractiveness of the pound against the dollar has diminished, with its correlation to the stock market dropping to zero and a lack of positive local drivers in the short term [1] Group 2 - The pound rose above 1.32 against the dollar after the budget announcement, signaling a more restrained government borrowing approach [4] - Morgan Stanley suggests that if the Bank of England implements sufficient rate cuts, it could alleviate negative factors affecting the pound, potentially creating more fiscal space [4] - Jefferies also anticipates that the pound's upward momentum is unlikely to persist, citing ongoing fiscal vulnerabilities as a reason for further potential weakness [4]

Group 1 - The global stock market is recovering as expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut rise, and concerns over an AI bubble have subsided [1] - The UK budget report revealed a fiscal buffer increase to £22 billion and a significant GDP growth downgrade to 1.4% for 2026, causing volatility in the GBP [1] - Morgan Stanley has ended its bullish stance on the GBP, suggesting that the currency's appeal is diminishing due to a lack of local economic drivers and a near-zero correlation with the stock market [1] Group 2 - The Nikkei 225 index closed up 1.2% at 50,167.10 points, while the Korean Composite Index rose 0.7% [5] - The GBP/USD exchange rate remained stable at 1.3245, and the US dollar index was flat at 99.596 [5] - Silver prices increased by nearly 0.7% to $53.69 per ounce, while gold prices fell by 0.05% to $4,151.69 per ounce [5] Group 3 - The Japanese yen remains weak despite verbal intervention from Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, trading at 156.22 against the US dollar [8] - Oil prices have slightly declined as the market awaits developments regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting [10]

"你最近有没有这种感觉？每次看到汇率跳来跳去，心里总有点犯嘀咕：到底是涨是跌？是该换一点，还是继续观望？"朋友前两天跟我吐槽，我听完只笑了 笑，因为这种纠结，应该不少人都有。 其实汇率每天都在波动，但我们普通人真正关心的，无非就是两个问题：现在的走势稳不稳？未来几天有没有大变动的可能？既然大家都想看得更明白，那 今天就用轻松点的方式，把最近的整体情况梳理清楚。 人民币最近挺稳，主要货币就在窄幅来回晃 最近外汇市场的整体节奏，可以用四个字概括：不慌不忙。主要货币对人民币基本上处于小范围上下波动，没有大跳水，也没有大冲高。 像美元，当前大概在七点零八上下。对普通人来说，它没出现什么明显的大涨大跌。如果你最近换过美元，大概率能感觉到：比前阵子略微贵一点，但也没 贵到离谱的程度。 欧元呢？因为那边经济还没完全缓过劲来，所以对人民币的走势有点弱弱的，没有太大力量往上冲。 日元最近显得比之前硬气一些，跟市场避险情绪有点关系。一有风吹草动，大家就喜欢把资金挪到相对安全的地方，日元因此稍微稳住一点。 英镑就比较佛系，退欧后的影响还在消化，它属于那种你不去关注，它自己也不会给你什么惊喜的类型。 新兴市场那边的表现就不太一样了， ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 摩根士丹利表示，从长远来看，英国央行充分的降息可能有助于缓解对英镑的不利因素，因为政策宽松可能会创造更多的财政空间。该行补充道，此外，借 贷成本降低可以提振家庭消费和企业活动。 "也许当我们接近英国央行降息周期的尾声时，增长将取代套利交易，成为英镑的关键货币催化剂，"策略师们写道。"如果降息有助于刺激增长前景，那么 原本可能对英镑不利的市场情绪将有很大的转变空间。" 同样，杰富瑞预计英镑的涨势将是短暂的，并认为还有进一步走弱的空间。该行经济学家Modupe Adegbembo在一份报告中写道： "展望未来，我们认为持续的财政脆弱性使得收益率曲线陡峭化交易具有吸引力，因为市场继续计入财政滑坡和结构性失衡的风险。" 音频由扣子空间生成 摩根士丹利已结束其看涨英镑的建议，并指出该货币可能已经见证了短期内最后一个利好催化剂。 David Adams等策略师在周四的一份报告中写道，尽管周三英国预算案公布后英镑有快速反弹的空间，但涨势可能会消退。他们补充称，英镑兑美元的吸引 力已受到打击，因为其与股市的关联度已降至零，且眼下缺乏积极的本土驱动因素。 策略师们写道，"随着预算案已成过去 ...

来源：金融界AI电报 摩根士丹利已结束其看涨英镑的建议，指出该货币很可能已经见证了近期最后一个积极催化剂。包括戴 维·亚当斯在内的策略师写道，尽管在周三英国预算案公布后英镑可能出现短暂的快速上涨，但涨幅可 能会消退。他们补充说，由于英镑兑美元汇率与股市的相关性已降至零，且短期内缺乏积极的本土驱动 因素，该货币对的吸引力已受到打击。策略师们写道："随着预算案的落地，我们认为英镑可能充其量 只有最后一次欢腾——即预算案对冲的平仓——但最终，继续持有英镑/美元多头的理由太少了。" ...

就在刚刚（英国时间11月26日中午12:30），英国财政大臣瑞秋·里夫斯（Rachel Reeves）在下议院正式发布了2025年英国《秋季预算案》，概述政府的开 支计划并发布新政（具体新政细节见下文）。 里夫斯在本次《预算案》中提出增税260亿英镑，在对豪宅、博彩加税的同时，继续提高养老金与最低工资，英媒称其政策方向为"向富人加税、为工薪减 负"。 她在下议院表示："今天的预算案，建立在工党自2024年7月执政以来所作选择的基础上： 削减NHS候诊名单，降低生活成本，并削减债务和借款。" 里夫斯指出，今天公布的举措无疑将再度面临反对，但尚未看到对工薪阶层更可信、或更公平的替代方案；她表示，这些举措是 为建设一个"更公平、更 强大、更安全的英国"所做出的正确选择。 里夫斯还坚称"不会回归财政紧缩"，同时表示，预算案将"降低通胀并为家庭提供即时缓解"。 在《预算案》公布之后，英镑兑美元汇率小幅上涨至1.318。 英镑兑人民币的汇率也小幅上涨至9.333。 截至发文（11月26日），英镑最新汇率如下： | 58 Last updated: 26 Nov 2025 21:05 | | | | --- | --- | ...