Group 1 - Financial markets are often seen as the "weather vane" of the economy, but recent macro data has deviated from expectations, leading to market "numbness" or even opposite trends [2][3] - The current AI wave differs from the last internet revolution, as major overseas tech companies show a relatively solid profit foundation, supported by macro liquidity and regulatory environments [4] - Recent trends show both risk assets, represented by stocks, and safe-haven assets, primarily gold, rising simultaneously, which historically corresponds to a phase of dollar depreciation [7] Group 2 - The macro narrative surrounding supply is not over and will continue to run parallel with traditional domestic demand trends, influencing market risk preferences [9] - The pressure to achieve economic growth targets by the end of the year may increase the weight of traditional fundamentals on market influences [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is moving away from "populism" and is more closely aligned with Silicon Valley capital, industrial capital, and the "wealthy class," although internal contradictions remain [1][4]. Group 1: Personnel Appointments - The background of financial officials appointed by Trump is complex, showcasing intense competition among his campaign partners for key positions like Secretary of Commerce and Secretary of the Treasury [2]. - Despite the close relationships of Trump's key nominees, significant internal contradictions are evident, which may hinder policy advancement [3]. - The current administration has seen a significant reduction in populist influence, with the wealthy class gaining more power and key positions [4]. Group 2: Economic Policies - The tariff policies of the Trump administration may serve more as negotiation tools and "populist slogans" rather than achieving balanced trade [6]. - The expected fiscal deficit under Trump 2.0 is projected to grow moderately, at a slower pace compared to the Biden administration, with interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve being the most feasible method to reduce the deficit [7]. - The impact of tariff policies during Trump's first term was limited, and similar expectations are held for the current term [8]. Group 3: Inflation and Trade Balance - Reducing inflation remains a key focus, with the administration relying on lowering energy prices as a primary strategy, though practical execution is uncertain [9]. - Achieving trade balance may require a long-term revaluation of the dollar, akin to historical agreements, but current conditions make such arrangements difficult [9]. Group 4: Market Outlook - By 2025, gold prices are expected to have upward momentum, and the certainty of investing in U.S. Treasury bonds is considered higher than that of U.S. stocks [10].