Group 1 - Trump's recent shift in attitude towards China is aimed at encouraging China to commit to a $200 billion purchase of U.S. goods, rather than a sign of weakness [1][5] - The U.S. administration's tariff policies appear increasingly chaotic, with Trump adopting a softer stance towards China compared to his hardline approach with other countries [1][3] - There is speculation that Trump may plan a visit to China to negotiate a new agreement similar to the one signed during his first term, which included a commitment from China to purchase $200 billion in U.S. products [5][6] Group 2 - The internal confusion within the White House reflects Trump's unpredictable style, leaving officials uncertain about his true objectives regarding China [3] - The previous trade negotiations during Trump's first term saw China agreeing to significant purchases, but the current context suggests that China is less likely to concede to similar demands again [5][6] - Recent developments indicate that the U.S. is recognizing China's desire for a more equitable trade relationship, as evidenced by the easing of trade restrictions and tariff reductions [6]

Group 1 - Japan's economic revitalization minister, Akizawa Ryozo, has made seven trips to the U.S. in two months but has failed to secure a meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, indicating stalled negotiations [1] - U.S. President Trump criticized Japan for being "spoiled" and suggested that the U.S. would prioritize negotiations with other countries like India over Japan [1] - The U.S. is facing internal contradictions regarding trade negotiations, with conflicting statements from officials about deadlines and agreements, leading to market uncertainty [4] Group 2 - The deadline for the U.S. to establish "reciprocal tariffs" is approaching on July 9, with various countries like the UK and Canada struggling to reach substantial agreements [2][3] - Experts predict that any agreements reached may only be symbolic and lack detailed commitments, raising concerns about the effectiveness of the negotiations [3] - The uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations has already impacted the U.S. markets, with increased volatility in the stock market and pressure on the bond market [4] Group 3 - The U.S. trade policy, framed as "fair trade," is perceived as protectionist and unilateral, with the U.S. attempting to dominate the negotiation process [5] - The reliance on pressure tactics in trade negotiations is leading to a loss of trust and market fragmentation, diminishing the U.S.'s international influence [6]

1. Report Investment Rating for the Industry No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tariff disturbances and the resulting trade re - balancing were the main themes in the H1 2025 LPG market. In H2 2025, with the concentrated launch of new production capacities in the Middle East and the US, and the weak growth of domestic chemical demand, the supply - demand balance will turn to looseness [2][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 H1 LPG Market Review - **Analysis of Different Stages**: - In Q1 2025, the domestic civil gas market was in a seasonal peak. The lowest deliverable domestic LPG was Shandong civil gas with a spot price around 4,800 - 4,900 yuan/ton. The LPG market fluctuated widely with costs under the pressure of cancellation [9]. - The 04 - contract LPG showed strength. Against the backdrop of weakening global crude oil and FEI prices, the domestic LPG price was strong, and the basis once shrank to around 100 yuan/ton. The contract mainly traded on the squeeze - out of the futures market and the expected tariff counter - measures due to Trump's potential global taxation [9]. - After Trump's global equal - tariff policy and high - tariff measures against China, China imposed a 125% counter - tariff on US imports. The global crude oil and FEI prices tumbled. The domestic LPG market was initially strong but then followed the decline of civil gas prices, while the internal - external price spread rebounded rapidly and fluctuated until early May [9]. - After the Sino - US phased tariff suspension agreement on May 12, the FEI market reversed, and the domestic LPG price fell sharply under the weakening civil gas and large - scale warehouse receipts, with the basis widening [9]. 3.2 2025 H2 LPG Operating Logic 3.2.1 LPG Import Pattern Outlook - **Historical Growth**: In the past 5 years, with the rapid expansion of domestic PDH and other capacities, the chemical demand for LPG increased significantly, and the average annual growth rate of the total imports of propane and butane was 14.10% [11]. - **2025 H1 Import Situation**: From January to March, the cumulative imports of LPG were 8.514 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.44%. However, from April to May, under the impact of Trump's 125% tariff on China, the imports dropped to 5.0209 million tons, a 11.54% decrease from the Q1 average. Even after the tariff suspension in May, the procurement of US propane did not increase significantly due to policy uncertainty and supply - chain substitution [14]. - **Import Source Changes**: The share of US propane in China's imports dropped sharply. In May, it accounted for only 21.17% (310,000 tons). The shortfall was mainly filled by the Middle East (increasing to 55.12% in May 2025 from 23.96% in 2024) and non - traditional sources such as Canada, Australia, and North Africa [15]. 3.2.1.1 Tariff 1.0 - **2018 - 2020 Trade War Impact**: In 2018, after the US imposed a 25% tariff on Chinese goods, China counter - imposed tariffs on US LPG. The US LPG imports dropped by about 290,000 tons/month on average. China supplemented imports through increasing Middle East imports, seeking non - traditional sources, and exchanging goods with Japan and South Korea. However, there was still a shortfall of about 40,000 tons/month [19]. - **2025 Situation**: By 2024, US propane accounted for 59% of China's imports, over 17 million tons annually. If US imports were to stop, it would be difficult to reshape the trade logistics, and the arrival cost of LPG would likely increase. Chinese PDH enterprises might face production cuts or shutdowns [21]. 3.2.1.2 Middle East LPG Supply - **H1 2025 Supply**: Since 2023, the average annual growth rate of Middle East LPG exports has been between 2.5 - 3%. From January to May 2025, it increased by 2.88% year - on - year. The supply from Saudi Arabia and Qatar decreased, while the increments mainly came from Iran and Kuwait [23]. - **H2 2025 New Capacity**: From 2025 - 2026, the new LPG capacity in the Middle East is estimated to be between 14 - 16 million tons, mainly contributed by Qatar and Saudi Arabia. This expansion will add nearly 10% to the global LPG supply, intensify market competition, and may put downward pressure on international prices [27]. - **Change in Export Direction**: Due to the slowdown in Indian demand and the change in the North Asian import pattern, the Middle East's LPG exports will be more focused on China, Southeast Asia, and Europe [27]. 3.2.1.3 US LPG Supply - **Historical Growth**: In the past 5 years, the average annual growth rate of US propane exports was 10.69%. From January to May 2025, the exports increased by 6.51% year - on - year. Affected by the North American cold wave, exports in February decreased by 9.34% year - on - year and recovered to about 7% in March [33]. - **H2 2025 Outlook**: In H2 2025, US LPG production is expected to increase with expanding exports. The Permian Basin's associated LPG supply will remain high, and with the launch of the Enterprise14 fractionation project and terminal expansion, the export capacity is expected to increase from 2.2 million barrels per day in H1 to 2.4 million barrels per day [35]. - **Logistics Pattern Change**: After Trump's "global equal - tariff" policy, the total US propane exports were not significantly affected, but the logistics pattern changed. China's procurement of US propane decreased significantly, while Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia, India, and Latin America increased their imports [37]. - **Export Capacity Constraints**: US LPG exports are highly concentrated in a few major terminals. Without considering terminal expansions, if the 1 - 5 month's 5% export growth rate is maintained, the average capacity utilization rate of the four major terminals in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to reach 91%. If calculated based on the average 10% growth rate in the past 5 years, it will rise to 98%, indicating a bottleneck in export capacity [42]. 3.2.2 Domestic LPG Supply Outlook - **H1 2025 Supply**: From January to May 2025, the domestic crude oil processing volume decreased by 4.12% year - on - year, dragging the LPG production into negative growth. The total LPG production was 22.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.56% [47]. - **Refinery Operations**: In H1 2025, the overall refinery operations were sluggish. The main refineries had a peak - and - trough pattern during the spring maintenance from March to May, while Shandong independent refineries started the year with a sharp decline and then stagnated at a low level [50]. - **H2 2025 New Capacity**: In H2 2025, new refinery capacities of 27 million tons/year will be gradually released, which is expected to increase the crude oil processing capacity by 2.5 - 3% and theoretically drive the marginal increase of LPG production by 3,500 - 4,500 tons/day [54]. 3.2.3 Domestic LPG Demand Outlook 3.2.3.1 PDH - **Profit and Operation in H1 2025**: In Q1 2025, the average profit of domestic PDH plants was 290 yuan/ton, a 71% year - on - year increase, mainly due to the falling import propane price and relatively stable propylene price. The average operating rate was 71.73%, a 1.59% increase from the previous quarter and an 8.47% increase year - on - year [58]. - **Impact of Tariffs**: After the Sino - US tariff increase in April, the import cost of US propane soared, and the theoretical profit of PDH plants once fell below - 5,500 yuan/ton. Enterprises turned to the Middle East for procurement, making profit recovery difficult. The operating rate dropped from 70% in March to 60% in mid - May and then rebounded to 70% after the tariff suspension in May but fell again later. As of June 12, the theoretical profit was - 357 yuan/ton [59]. - **Capacity Expansion**: In H1 2025, 2.46 million tons/year of new PDH capacities were put into operation, and another 1.45 million tons/year are expected to be launched in H2. The total new capacity in 2025 will reach 3.91 million tons, increasing the propane demand by about 2 million tons. With the concentrated release of propylene capacity in H2 and weak downstream demand, the PDH operating rate may decline [62]. 3.2.3.2 C4 Demand - **MTBE**: In H1 2025, MTBE first rose and then declined. In Q1, it was supported by costs and policies, but in Q2, the market turned sluggish due to increased supply and weak gasoline - blending demand. In H2, the situation may improve slightly during the summer peak season. The expected new production capacity in 2025 is 2.742 million tons/year, with a growth rate of 12% [64][67]. - **Maleic Anhydride**: In H1 2025, maleic anhydride showed a one - way downward trend due to over - capacity. The expected new production capacity in 2025 will exceed 1.5 million tons/year, with a growth rate of over 40% [67].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade war has not definitively proven that tariffs can achieve trade rebalancing, but it has clearly triggered signs of global capital rebalancing, which has invigorated the Hong Kong market [1] Group 1: Market Activity - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has purchased over $17 billion to maintain the currency peg [1] - India experienced its first net inflow of foreign capital in May-June this year [1] Group 2: Currency Valuation - The current value of the US dollar is widely considered to be overvalued by 15%-20%, primarily due to significant capital inflows that have driven up the exchange rate [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - In the context of global capital flows and the search for diversified allocations, China's offshore market and A-shares are expected to continue benefiting from capital rebalancing [1]

Core Insights - The most significant event affecting international trade and investment is the tariff issue, with the U.S. government implementing tariff policies aimed at reducing trade deficits, increasing fiscal revenue, and restructuring the international trade and investment system [3] Group 1: Cost-Benefit Rebalancing - The cost-benefit analysis in trade and investment is evolving, incorporating traditional factors like labor, land, and resources, as well as new elements such as innovation, institutional frameworks, and green development [3] - Geopolitical and ideological factors have also become critical considerations, leading to greater uncertainty for entrepreneurs while they still pursue maximum efficiency and effectiveness [3] - This situation presents opportunities for global South and emerging market countries to attract more trade and investment [3] Group 2: Economic Structure Adjustment - The rebalancing of global trade will lead to profound adjustments in the internal economic structures of major economies, addressing the imbalances created by globalization, such as the significant trade deficit in the U.S. and trade surpluses in the EU and China [3] - Historical experience suggests that effective resolution of trade imbalances requires countries to promote internal economic adjustments, ensuring coordination among savings, consumption, imports, exports, and investments [3] Group 3: Currency Rebalancing - Currency rebalancing is expected to guide the world monetary system towards a more diverse and inclusive framework, as the dominance of the U.S. dollar faces challenges from currency weaponization and the "Triffin dilemma" [4] - The international monetary system may evolve in three directions: the inclusion of more currencies, increased exploration of cryptocurrencies in cross-border trade and investment, and enhanced functionality of the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) [4] Group 4: China's Response - China remains confident in navigating the current complex landscape, with its foreign direct investment stock exceeding $3 trillion from 2014 to 2024, tripling over the past two decades [4] - Chinese enterprises are rapidly developing in the international investment arena, characterized by resilient private enterprises, leading technology firms, and the transfer of domestic industrial park experiences to foreign markets [4] - Chinese companies are actively participating in local infrastructure development, contributing to economic growth in host countries while adapting to changes in the international trade and investment landscape [4]

Core Points - The recent high-level economic talks between China and the U.S. resulted in an agreement to suspend tariff measures for 90 days and reduce tax rates by 115%, which is expected to boost trade and shipping demand [1] - Political and economic pressures have led President Trump to reconsider his stance on tariffs, as dissatisfaction among blue-collar workers and large corporations has increased [2][4] - The Trump administration's attempts to leverage tariffs to force concessions from China have faced backlash from U.S. businesses, which warn of significant economic costs [4][5] Group 1 - The agreement reached in Geneva is seen as a positive development, with analysts predicting increased orders from U.S. importers and a subsequent rise in shipping demand [1] - Trump's initial reluctance to lower tariffs was influenced by growing discontent among his political base, particularly blue-collar workers, prompting his aides to warn of potential voter loss [2] - The rapid changes in U.S. trade policy under Trump, including over 50 new or modified tariff policies since his inauguration, reflect the administration's struggle to balance economic goals with political realities [5][6] Group 2 - Despite the recent agreement, the average tariff rate on imported goods remains high at 17.8%, significantly above pre-Trump levels, indicating ongoing economic strain for American households [6] - Analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of Trump's tariff policies, given the potential negative impact on the U.S. economy and market growth [6][7] - The political implications of tariff adjustments are significant, as Trump's approval ratings are closely tied to economic performance, making further tariff increases unlikely [7]

文 ｜ 明明 余经纬 我们认为特朗普政府正在摆脱"民粹"，与硅谷资本、产业资本和"富豪阶层"联系更紧密，并且其内 部矛盾仍存；加征关税及减税更多是"民粹式口号"。各国与美国关税谈判的空间可能更大，预计美 国财政赤字仍将温和增长。但通过降低能源价格推动通胀走低的实操方式及效果有待观察。美元汇 率的重估可能才是推动美国贸易再平衡的最有效方式，但实施的困难较大，落地可能较晚。考虑到 特朗普政府的影响，2 0 2 5年，黄金价格上涨的确定性仍较高，做多美债的确定性好于做多美股。 ▍ 特朗普任命的财经官员背景复杂，且人事任命过程中，展现出复杂的博弈和内部的矛盾。 特朗普的财经官员提名普遍较晚，且在商务部长、财政部长等重要职位上，来自特朗普不同关系 的竞选伙伴竞争激烈。 ▍ 尽管特朗普提名的重要官员都与其关系密切或有利益往来，但其内部矛盾仍然明显，后续政策 推进仍然可能不顺。 除了商务部长、财政部长任命中候选人之间的激烈竞争，近期特朗普在推进关税政策时反复无常 可能与政府内部矛盾相关。 ▍ 本届特朗普政府"民粹"色彩大幅减淡，建制派的话语权更低，"富豪阶级"优势更加明显。 建制派失去了副总统等关键位置，莱特希泽这样的民粹 ...