美国产业链近岸化

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兴业证券王涵 | 美国制造业近岸化?——从数据看进展
王涵论宏观· 2025-09-05 01:33
Group 1: Core Insights - The "nearshoring" of the U.S. supply chain has occurred primarily in Mexico, with significant increases in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) but limited growth in greenfield investments [1][10][11] - Mexico's exports have increased by 18% compared to 2019, while industrial production has only grown by 7%, indicating a lag behind other emerging economies [17][20] - Political uncertainty in Mexico has led to a slowdown in domestic investment, with a notable decline in new investments by 25% in 2024 [11][25] Group 2: Future Outlook - Mexico retains advantages for "nearshoring," including geographical proximity to the U.S., lower labor costs, and favorable tariff rates, despite a 37% increase in wages since 2021 [22][25] - The upcoming review of the USMCA in 2026 is a critical observation point, as U.S. interest in enhancing its semiconductor supply chain may lead to more favorable terms for Mexico's electronic industry [26][27] - Mexico's ability to attract foreign investment is hindered by political uncertainties and infrastructure challenges, with approximately $35 billion in investment projects currently on hold due to judicial reforms [25][26]
美国制造业近岸化?——从数据看进展
王涵论宏观· 2025-09-04 05:49
Group 1: Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article is that while the "nearshoring" of the U.S. supply chain has progressed, it is primarily concentrated in Mexico, with significant improvements in trade performance but limited growth in investment and production [1][2][5]. Group 2: Trade Performance - From a trade perspective, the U.S. supply chain "nearshoring" has occurred, particularly in Mexico, where the share of imports from Mexico has been increasing since 2018, averaging an annual increase of 1% from 2020 to 2024, and a 3% increase in the first half of 2025 [7][10]. - Mexico's FDI has seen a notable increase, with greenfield investment announcements exceeding the previous average by 45% from 2022 to 2024, but actual FDI inflows only exceeded the previous average by 10% [10][11]. Group 3: Manufacturing and Economic Challenges - Despite the growth in exports, Mexico's manufacturing production has not shown strong growth, with industrial production increasing only 7% compared to an 18% increase in exports from 2019 to May 2025 [17][20]. - Political uncertainty in Mexico has led to a slowdown in investment, with a significant rise in the economic policy uncertainty index and a 25% decline in new investments in 2024 [11][25]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Mexico retains advantages for "nearshoring," including geographical proximity to the U.S., lower labor costs (with wages about one-fifth of U.S. levels), and favorable tariff rates [22][25]. - However, Mexico's capacity to absorb more investment is limited due to its smaller labor force compared to countries like China and India, and ongoing political uncertainties may hinder its ability to attract U.S. capital [25][26]. - The upcoming review of the USMCA in 2026 is a critical observation point, as U.S. interests in enhancing its semiconductor supply chain may lead to more favorable terms for Mexico's electronic industry [26].