凛冬已至，日本经济的寒意愈发浓烈。曾经人声鼎沸的大阪关西机场，如今却透着一股令人不安的冷清。免税店门可罗雀，酒店入住率暴跌，这萧条景象远 比冰冷的数据更具冲击力，如同一面镜子，映照着日本经济的窘境。而这一切的根源，都指向了那场始于高市早苗的政治豪赌。 时间回溯到2025年11月7日，在高市早苗在国会辩论中公然发表涉台言论，声称"台海冲突可能触发日本存亡危机事态"，甚至暗示自卫队可能介入。这番言 论如同在干柴上点燃了一把火，瞬间激怒了中方。更令人担忧的是，这并非深思熟虑的战略，而是一场为了迎合右翼势力的即兴表演。 然而，高市早苗或许并未料到，她强硬表态的背后，却隐藏着一场经济风暴。12月，中日航线骤然遇冷，近2200个航班瞬间蒸发，连接中日26座城市与18座 机场的46条航线陷入一片沉寂。昔日繁忙的空中走廊，如今只剩下一串串触目惊心的红色取消代码。 航班骤减，犹如一把利刃，直插日本经济的要害。每减少一班航班，都意味着无数商业机会的流失，无数家庭收入的缩水。这种具体的、可感知的痛楚，正 在日本社会蔓延，并转化为对政府无能的愤怒。数据不会撒谎，航班的消失，不仅是数量的减少，更是信心的崩塌。 然而，更令人玩味的是，就 ...

对于日本制造业而言，稀土不仅仅是矿石，更是悬在头顶的达摩克利斯之剑。虽然日本方面曾试图对此 轻描淡写，甚至有一位官员硬着头皮对外宣称"断定这是中方施压还为时尚早"，但这种外交辞令掩盖不 了其实际的战略窘境。 早在今年10月，中国就已经进一步加强了稀土出口管制，而在上个月的中美互动中，尽管双方就供应链 达成某种共识，但这个豁免权并不自动适用于所有跟风起舞的第三方。现在的日本，显然就是那个撞在 枪口上的"第三方"。 全球稀土版图中，中国不仅握有七成的产量，更关键的是掌握着高达92%的冶炼分离产能。这意味着， 即便日本费尽心机满世界找矿，从澳大利亚跑到越南甚至拉拢印度搞"进口替代"，那些挖出来的矿土最 终都要送到中国来走一遍提炼流程。 12月7日，日本列岛被一份来自《读卖新闻》的报道搅动得人心惶惶。这篇援引多名政府内部人士消息 的文章透露了一个令日本政府行政中心深感寒意的信号，日本企业向中国提交的稀土出口审批申请，通 过审批的速度出现了非同寻常的"停滞"。 日本官员敏锐的嗅到了其中的不对劲，紧急复盘这是否是中国给出的警告。12月4日，中国商务部刚严 厉敲打了高市早苗涉台的疯话，警告日方再任性就采取"必要措施"。话音 ...

Core Insights - The Thai Economic Policy Committee has approved three significant measures promoted by the Board of Investment (BOI) to boost economic momentum by the end of the year and accelerate major investment projects [1] - The "Thailand FastPass" initiative will be the core measure, selecting 80 pilot projects with a total investment of approximately 480 billion THB, focusing on key sectors such as data centers, industrial park development, clean energy, and electronics [1] - The government aims to reform key processes such as approval efficiency, energy assurance, land planning, and visa and permit issuance, targeting a 20% to 50% improvement in approval efficiency, with a formal launch in December [1] Group 1 - The government plans to train 100,000 high-skilled workers in modern industries through enhanced training, online courses, and practical training, with applications closing in January 2026 [1] - A 5 billion THB competitiveness enhancement fund will support Thai companies in transitioning to new technologies, green industries, or upgrading new businesses, providing subsidies of 30% to 50% of actual expenses, with a maximum support of 10 million THB per company, also requiring applications by January 2026 [1] Group 2 - Out of the 80 large projects, 40 have already entered the investment implementation stage, while the remaining projects are addressing practical obstacles related to electricity, land, and permits [2] - Related departments are accelerating efforts in expanding the power grid, publishing green pricing mechanisms, adjusting industrial planning, and upgrading visa and work permit systems [2] - This policy is not only a short-term economic stimulus but also aims to drive systemic reforms, establish a modern investment ecosystem, and enhance labor competitiveness, laying the foundation for long-term industrial development and economic growth in Thailand [2]

Core Insights - The narrative of "decoupling from China" promoted by Western media has not yielded significant results, as evidenced by the 2024 export data showing a different reality [1] - The rise of China's central and western regions is notable, with foreign investment in manufacturing in these areas increasing by 23% year-on-year in Q1 [1] Investment Trends - Cities like Chongqing, Chengdu, and Zhengzhou are experiencing a surge in orders for electronic manufacturing, with some orders extending into the next year [1] - The cost-effectiveness and stable power supply in China's western regions are attracting companies to establish factories there, offering better value than relocating abroad [1] Comparative Analysis - In contrast, Vietnam's manufacturing PMI fell below the growth line in Q4 of last year, and India's manufacturing faced significant losses due to power outages, amounting to $18 billion [3][5] - Apple's supplier, Luxshare Precision, has struggled with product quality in Vietnam, leading to a return of high-end production lines to Anhui [3] Cost Considerations - While labor costs in India are lower, the overall cost advantage diminishes when considering logistics and supply chain inefficiencies, such as shipping delays and port congestion [5] - China's western regions offer lower industrial electricity prices and better infrastructure, making them more attractive for manufacturing compared to India and Vietnam [6] Supply Chain Dynamics - China's complete industrial system allows for efficient production within short distances, contrasting with India and Vietnam's reliance on imported components [6] - The opening of the Chengdu-Chongqing high-speed rail has reduced logistics costs by 20%, further enhancing the competitiveness of western regions [6] Future Outlook - By 2025, foreign investment projects in regions like Chongqing, Sichuan, and Anhui are expected to increase, as companies prefer to expand production domestically rather than relocate [8] - The return of foreign enterprises is driven by the reliability of China's supply chain and the ability to meet domestic market demands [8] Competitive Landscape - The future competition will focus on creating smarter and more resilient supply chains, with China's dual strategy of high-end R&D in coastal areas and large-scale production in the interior [12] - Companies are adopting a "China 1" strategy, retaining core production in China while selectively outsourcing non-core activities [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic performance of various cities in China during the first three quarters of 2025, highlighting GDP growth rates and the emergence of new economic powerhouses among both traditional and non-traditional cities [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Performance of Major Cities - Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen are leading in GDP growth, supported by high-tech industries, particularly in artificial intelligence and new energy vehicles [2][3]. - Guangzhou's economy is stabilizing with significant improvements in industrial output and foreign trade, which increased by 12.5% [2]. - Ningbo has surpassed Tianjin in GDP, while Qingdao is closing in on Tianjin, indicating a potential shift in economic rankings among northern cities [3]. Group 2: Emerging Cities and Economic Clubs - The number of trillion-yuan GDP cities is expected to increase, with cities like Wenzhou, Xuzhou, and Dalian vying for entry into the trillion-yuan club [11][12]. - Wenzhou has shown consistent GDP growth exceeding 6% for ten consecutive quarters, driven by industrial contributions, particularly in electronics and automotive manufacturing [15]. - Xuzhou is recognized for its engineering machinery industry, benefiting from major domestic and international projects, while Dalian's strengths lie in its port and shipping capabilities [15][16]. Group 3: Non-Capital City Dynamics - The competition for the title of the leading non-capital city in Central and Western China is intensifying, with cities like Luoyang, Xiangyang, and Yichang emerging as contenders [20][21]. - Yichang has the highest GDP growth rate among the top 50 cities, driven by industrial diversification and emerging sectors like lithium batteries and biomedicine [22]. - The success of non-capital cities heavily relies on their industrial base and the development of new industries, as they lack the administrative advantages of capital cities [23][24].

Core Insights - The UNCTAD report indicates that global trade is expected to maintain strong growth in the first half of 2025, with an increase of over $500 billion, driven primarily by trade expansion among developing countries and a rebound in manufacturing exports [1][2] Group 1: South-South Trade - South-South trade is showing strong growth, significantly contributing to global trade expansion, particularly in East Asia, where trade among developing countries is active [1][2] - The growth in South-South trade is attributed to increasing complementarity among developing countries, which possess abundant natural and labor resources, allowing for mutual learning and technology sharing [2] - However, the growth is uneven, with East Asia leading while other regions lag behind; excluding East Asia, South-South trade contracted in Q2 2025, highlighting challenges such as inadequate infrastructure and trade barriers [2] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing is a key driver of global trade growth, with a quarterly growth rate of 3%, outperforming agriculture and natural resources sectors [3] - The electronics and automotive industries are particularly strong, with electronic products, especially AI-related devices, seeing a quarterly trade increase of 7%, while electric and hybrid vehicles grew by 17% and 10%, respectively [2][3] - The report anticipates continued growth in manufacturing driven by green and technological transitions, particularly in renewable energy equipment and AI-related products [3] Group 3: China's Role - As the world's largest goods trader, China significantly influences global trade dynamics, contributing notably to trade growth in the first half of 2025 [4] - China's robust manufacturing base and complete industrial chain have propelled global manufacturing trade, with strong performance in electronics and green transportation sectors [4] - China's investments in the new energy vehicle sector have boosted its manufacturing exports and increased its share in global automotive trade, while also enhancing trade ties with developing countries through initiatives like the Belt and Road [4]

Core Insights - The UNCTAD report indicates that global trade is expected to maintain strong growth in the first half of 2025, with an increase of over $500 billion, driven primarily by trade expansion among developing countries and a rebound in manufacturing exports [1][2] Group 1: South-South Trade - South-South trade is showing strong growth, significantly contributing to global trade expansion, particularly in East Asia, where trade among developing countries is active [1][2] - The growth in South-South trade is driven by increasing complementarity among developing countries, which possess abundant natural and labor resources, allowing for mutual learning and technology sharing [2] - However, the growth is uneven, with East Asia leading while other regions lag behind; excluding East Asia, global South-South trade contracted in Q2 2025, highlighting challenges such as inadequate infrastructure and trade barriers [2] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing is a key driver of global trade growth, with a quarterly growth rate of 3%, outperforming agriculture and natural resources sectors [3] - The electronics and automotive industries are particularly strong, with electronic product trade increasing by 7% quarter-on-quarter, and electric and hybrid vehicles seeing trade growth of 17% and 10%, respectively [2][3] - The report anticipates continued growth in manufacturing, especially in renewable energy equipment and AI-related electronics, supported by ongoing green and technological transitions [3] Group 3: China's Role - China, as the largest goods trader globally, plays a crucial role in shaping global trade dynamics, contributing significantly to trade growth in the first half of 2025 [4] - China's robust manufacturing base and complete industrial chain have bolstered global manufacturing trade, with strong performance in electronics and green transportation sectors [4] - Investments in the new energy vehicle sector have enhanced China's manufacturing exports, increasing its share in global automotive trade, while also diversifying trade markets through initiatives like the Belt and Road [4]

Industry Overview - The trade tensions between the US and China have escalated, with the US considering an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods, which has led to significant declines in US stock markets and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index. This situation is expected to cause a notable pullback in the A-share market, which has reached a 10-year high. However, the impact may be less severe than previous tensions in April due to the timing of policy implementations [2]. Company Performance - Taiwan's leading PCB manufacturer, Zhen Ding Technology, reported a consolidated revenue of NT$47.366 billion for Q3, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.98%. The company anticipates record performance in Q4 due to ongoing demand from IC substrates and various customer orders [3]. - ASUS announced a revenue of NT$82.6 billion for September, reflecting a 31% quarter-on-quarter and 33% year-on-year growth. The Q3 revenue reached NT$200.3 billion, marking a 7% quarter-on-quarter and 20% year-on-year increase, driven by demand for servers, graphics cards, and commercial PCs [3]. - Hengdian East Magnetic (002056.SZ) expects a net profit of between RMB 1.39 billion and RMB 1.53 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50.1% to 652%. The company benefits from strong demand in the new energy vehicle and AI server sectors, as well as effective cost control in the photovoltaic market [4]. - Jihong Co. anticipates a net profit of between RMB 257 million and RMB 270 million for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a year-on-year increase of 95.07% to 105.31%. The growth is attributed to the expansion of cross-border e-commerce and strategic partnerships in the packaging sector [7].

Group 1 - Foreign manufacturing in China is viewed as a "gym" for enhancing competitiveness through local adaptation and product strategy refinement [2][3] - Schneider Electric's industrial automation business has significantly benefited from the "China-centric" strategy, emphasizing controllable costs and high performance in new product solutions [2][4] - The localization of foreign companies' R&D teams in China has evolved from simple adjustments to comprehensive development based on local and global demands, presenting both challenges and satisfaction [2][3] Group 2 - The concept of "involution" in the industry is driving a focus on extreme cost-effectiveness, prompting foreign companies to adapt their traditional approaches to meet market demands for "good enough" products [3][4] - Schneider Electric has seen a notable increase in vitality within industrial smart manufacturing due to supportive supply chain policies, leading to the launch of numerous locally developed products [3][4] - The integration of century-old multinational experience with insights into local market demands and competitive Chinese supply chains is seen as a pathway to delivering better value products [4] Group 3 - Foreign companies are increasing investments in software, digitalization, and sustainability to provide integrated smart solutions, responding to the rise of local competitors in hardware development [5][6] - Schneider Electric's commitment to software and digital R&D in China reflects confidence in the market, with new industrial automation products and solutions being showcased at the China International Industry Fair [6] - The Chinese machine tool and laser manufacturing sectors have advanced significantly, with local supply chains now competitive with Western counterparts, although foreign firms still hold technological advantages [6] Group 4 - The demand for reliable electricity is increasing as industrial production scales up, with Schneider Electric emphasizing the need for innovative power solutions to meet the strict standards of smart manufacturing [7] - The trend towards sustainable development is being supported by multinational companies, with Veolia focusing on economically viable environmental solutions aligned with China's dual carbon goals [8] - Chinese innovations in digitalization, intelligence, and green technology are gaining global recognition, accelerating integration into global industrial and value chains [9] Group 5 - The global electronics industry relies heavily on China, which contributes approximately one-third of the global electronic production capacity, highlighting the importance of foreign investment in the "China-centric" strategy [10][11] - The evolving dynamics between foreign companies and the Chinese market reflect a shift towards mutual respect and collaboration, with both sides now viewing each other on equal footing [11]

Group 1: Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article is that while the "nearshoring" of the U.S. supply chain has progressed, it is primarily concentrated in Mexico, with significant improvements in trade performance but limited growth in investment and production [1][2][5]. Group 2: Trade Performance - From a trade perspective, the U.S. supply chain "nearshoring" has occurred, particularly in Mexico, where the share of imports from Mexico has been increasing since 2018, averaging an annual increase of 1% from 2020 to 2024, and a 3% increase in the first half of 2025 [7][10]. - Mexico's FDI has seen a notable increase, with greenfield investment announcements exceeding the previous average by 45% from 2022 to 2024, but actual FDI inflows only exceeded the previous average by 10% [10][11]. Group 3: Manufacturing and Economic Challenges - Despite the growth in exports, Mexico's manufacturing production has not shown strong growth, with industrial production increasing only 7% compared to an 18% increase in exports from 2019 to May 2025 [17][20]. - Political uncertainty in Mexico has led to a slowdown in investment, with a significant rise in the economic policy uncertainty index and a 25% decline in new investments in 2024 [11][25]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Mexico retains advantages for "nearshoring," including geographical proximity to the U.S., lower labor costs (with wages about one-fifth of U.S. levels), and favorable tariff rates [22][25]. - However, Mexico's capacity to absorb more investment is limited due to its smaller labor force compared to countries like China and India, and ongoing political uncertainties may hinder its ability to attract U.S. capital [25][26]. - The upcoming review of the USMCA in 2026 is a critical observation point, as U.S. interests in enhancing its semiconductor supply chain may lead to more favorable terms for Mexico's electronic industry [26].