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美国制造业近岸化?——从数据看进展
王涵论宏观· 2025-09-04 05:49
美国产业链" 近岸 化"的实际进展——贸易表现的改善幅度大于其投资、生产。 从贸易角度来看,美国产业链的"近岸化"已发生,但只集中在墨西哥。墨西 哥的FDI投资有明显增长,但是没有企业"公告"的绿地投资规模增长幅度大。而且,自2024年以来,受国内政治不确定性影响,墨西哥企业的投资有明显放 缓。更重要的是,相较于墨西哥的出口增长,其制造业生产并未展现出强劲增长的势头。相比2019年,2025年5月墨西哥出口量增长18%,但其同期的工业 生产量仅增长7%,落后于其他新兴经济体。 展望未来,墨西哥作为"近岸外包"的优势仍在,但局限性也很明显。 墨西哥作为美国近岸外包的地理优势、人力成本优势及关税优势依然存在。但墨西哥自 身的经济体量决定着其能承接的产业链规模有限。同时,墨西哥的制造能力能否进一步提升可能有赖于美墨产业规划能否相互协调、墨西哥能否从外部获得 足够的资本补充提升其基建水平。而当前墨西哥自身政治的不确定性,正导致其对部分(尤其是美国)资本的吸引力下降。 往后看,墨西哥"近岸外包"是否会再次加速?2026年《美墨加协定》的审查谈判是一个重要的观察点。 一方面,如前所述,墨西哥当前的司法改革有可能扰 动美国 ...
“蓝色火苗”背后的合作与信赖(上合大家庭 生活新变化②)
Core Viewpoint - The China-Central Asia Gas Pipeline serves as a vital energy corridor, enhancing cooperation between China and Central Asian countries while improving the living standards of local populations [9][17]. Group 1: Project Overview - The China-Central Asia Gas Pipeline is referred to as the "Silk Road" of modern energy, transporting natural gas from Central Asia to eastern coastal regions of China [9]. - The pipeline significantly benefits over 500 million people across 27 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in China, as well as supplying over 3 billion cubic meters of gas annually to Almaty region in Kazakhstan [16]. Group 2: Employee Experiences - Employees like Rustam Ganiev and Liu Yingji have transformed their careers through the pipeline project, with Rustam evolving from a novice to a skilled deputy station manager, while Liu has taken on a leadership role in a remote management office [10][11]. - The working environment is challenging, with extreme weather conditions, yet employees find meaning in their roles as guardians of an energy artery that provides warmth and light to families [11]. Group 3: Cultural Exchange and Teamwork - The collaboration between Chinese and Central Asian employees fosters deep friendships and cultural understanding, with shared experiences in both work and personal life [13][14]. - The project promotes a "respect, tolerance, unity, and harmony" culture, enhancing operational efficiency and employee relations [14]. Group 4: Future Aspirations - Employees express hopes for the project's continued development, aiming to create more job opportunities, train young talent, and improve local infrastructure in Uzbekistan [16]. - The project exemplifies the potential for energy cooperation to deepen political trust and economic integration between China and Central Asian nations, aligning with the Belt and Road Initiative [17].
巴菲特退休“带崩”!伯克希尔遭遇35年来最严重“滑铁卢”
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-08-06 09:31
Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, has experienced its largest underperformance against the S&P 500 in decades, attributed to Buffett's impending retirement and investor sell-offs [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Since May 2, when Buffett announced the transfer of control to Greg Abel, Berkshire's Class A shares have dropped by 14%, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500's 11% increase [2]. - The gap in performance is one of the largest since 1990, with only the early pandemic period showing worse quarterly results for Berkshire [3]. - Berkshire's Class A shares reached a record price of $812,855 in May, but there is uncertainty about who is selling these high-vote shares [3]. Group 2: Business Operations - Despite the stock sell-off, Berkshire's subsidiaries, including BNSF Railway and several utility companies, reported profit growth in Q2, with overall operating profit increasing by 8% year-over-year when excluding currency fluctuations [3]. - Berkshire's market valuation has risen to a price-to-book ratio of nearly 1.8, the highest since October 2008 [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Buffett has ceased stock buybacks since May 2024, only repurchasing shares when he believes the price is below intrinsic value [5]. - Recent comments from shareholders suggest that the stock may be overvalued, with expectations that a market correction could prompt Buffett to resume buybacks [6]. - Berkshire has been a net seller of stocks for 11 consecutive quarters, with cash levels reaching 30% of total assets by the end of June [6].
西气东输四线全线贯通投产
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-06-26 01:37
Core Points - The successful commissioning of the Ganning section of the West-to-East Gas Pipeline Phase IV marks a significant milestone in enhancing China's energy security and international oil and gas resource allocation efficiency [1] - The pipeline has an annual gas transmission capacity of 15 billion cubic meters, equivalent to replacing over 27 million tons of standard coal and reducing carbon emissions by approximately 50 million tons [1] - The total gas transmission capacity of the West-to-East Gas Pipeline system will reach "100 billion cubic meters," significantly improving the cross-regional allocation capability of natural gas [1] Group 1 - The West-to-East Gas Pipeline Phase IV is a strategic energy corridor connecting Central Asia and China, following the previous three phases [1] - The Ganning section of the pipeline is 1,162 kilometers long and runs through complex geological conditions and harsh natural environments, including a national nature reserve [1] - The pipeline's construction faced multiple challenges due to the fragile ecosystem and the presence of various protected species along its route [1] Group 2 - After the full commissioning of Phase IV, it will operate in conjunction with Phase II and III, enhancing the reliability and flexibility of China's natural gas transmission system [2] - The pipeline will facilitate the transportation of more gas from Central Asia, Tarim Basin, and coal-to-gas projects in Xinjiang to the Bohai Rim, central, and southeastern coastal regions [2] - This development is expected to have a profound impact on optimizing regional energy structure, improving air quality, and promoting high-quality economic and social development along the pipeline [2]