Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI) FY 2025 Conference December 09, 2025 10:15 AM ET Company ParticipantsDax Sanders - EVPKim Dang - CEOConference Call ParticipantsMichael Blum - Managing Director and Senior Equity AnalystMichael BlumThank you all for being here. Appreciate it.Kim DangYeah. Good to be here, Michael.Michael BlumFirst of all, if you don't mind, could we just close the door in the back? Thank you. So, you put out the guidance last night, so I figured maybe just start with that, just talk through it, and ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Comparable EBITDA increased by 10% year over year, reaching $2.7 billion in the third quarter [34] - The company expects 2025 net capital expenditures to be at the low end of the $5.5 billion-$6 billion range, with a long-term target of 4.75 times debt to EBITDA [7][36] - The company reaffirmed its 2025 outlook for comparable EBITDA growth of 7%-9% from 2024 to 2025 [36] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The natural gas pipelines segment saw a 13% increase in EBITDA, while the power and energy solutions segment experienced an 18% reduction [34] - Bruce Power achieved 94% availability, aligning with the expected annual availability in the low 90% range for full year 2025 [34] - The U.S. natural gas business recorded a 15% increase in LNG flows, setting a new peak delivery record of 4 bcf per day [32] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Canada, natural gas demand from power generation has increased by 80% over the past five years [15] - The Mexican government plans to add 8 gigawatts of new installed natural gas capacity by 2030, with TC Energy's assets positioned to support this growth [9] - The natural gas forecast has been revised 5 bcf a day higher, anticipating a 45 bcf a day increase in demand by 2035 [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on low-risk, high-return growth, emphasizing brownfield in-corridor expansions [11][41] - A disciplined approach to capital allocation is maintained, ensuring investments maximize returns and long-term value for shareholders [12][41] - The company is leveraging technological innovations and operational excellence to enhance project execution and capital efficiency [21][23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management expressed confidence in the supportive regulatory environment across North America, which is expected to facilitate project delivery [8] - The company anticipates continued strong performance driven by increasing demand for natural gas and power generation [36][41] - Management highlighted the importance of human capital and execution excellence in maintaining growth momentum [46][70] Other Important Information - The company sanctioned $5.1 billion in new projects over the last 12 months, with a weighted average build multiple of 5.9 times [6][12] - The company is the only midstream operator with significant interest in nuclear power generation, positioning it uniquely in the energy market [10][14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Long-term EBITDA growth trajectory - Management indicated that if current return levels are maintained, mid-single-digit CAGR growth could continue beyond 2028 [44] Question: Potential for increased capital expenditure - Management stated that while the current target is $6 billion, there may be opportunities to exceed this level depending on project execution and market conditions [46] Question: Size and complexity of projects - Management noted that projects are becoming larger but remain straightforward, with average project sizes around $500 million [52] Question: Project backlog and capacity - Management confirmed that they have not turned down any projects due to capital constraints and expect to maintain a robust project backlog [55] Question: Strategic decision to focus on transmission - Management explained that focusing on transmission allows for lower-risk, compelling returns while meeting the needs of utility customers [59]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Comparable EBITDA increased by 10% year-over-year, reaching $2.7 billion in the third quarter [31] - The company expects 2025 net capital expenditures to be at the low end of the $5.5 billion-$6 billion range, with a long-term target of 4.75x debt to EBITDA [7][39] - The company generated over $5 billion in new high-quality executable projects sanctioned over the last 12 months [10][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. natural gas business saw LNG flows increase by 15% this quarter, setting a new peak delivery record of 4 bcf per day [30] - Bruce Power achieved 94% availability, contributing to the overall performance of the power and energy solutions segment [31] - EBITDA from the natural gas pipelines network increased by 13%, while the power and energy solutions segment saw an 18% reduction [31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Natural gas demand from power generation in Alberta increased by 80% over the past five years [14] - The company is positioned to supply 20% of Mexico's gas-to-power plants and will feed 80% of new public tender natural gas generation projects entering service over the next five years [15] - The natural gas forecast has been revised 5 bcf a day higher, now calling for a 45 bcf a day increase in natural gas demand by 2035 [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maximizing asset value through safety and operational excellence while leveraging commercial and technological innovation [39] - The strategy includes prioritizing low-risk, high-return growth and maintaining financial strength and agility [39] - The company aims to capitalize on the growing demand for power generation and data centers, with a pipeline of origination opportunities exceeding 7 billion cu ft per day [17] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the supportive regulatory environment in Canada and the U.S., which is expected to streamline project delivery [8] - The company anticipates continued strong performance with year-over-year growth of 6%-8% expected in 2026 [33] - Management highlighted the importance of human capital and execution excellence in maintaining project performance [44][66] Other Important Information - The company has sanctioned an additional $5.1 billion of primarily brownfield projects, predominantly in the U.S. natural gas pipeline business unit [35] - The company is leveraging AI and technology to enhance operational efficiency and reduce emissions [20][21] - The Bruce Power Major Component Replacement program is expected to extend reactor life until at least 2064, improving availability and financial results [24][28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Long-term EBITDA growth trajectory - Management indicated that if current return levels remain, mid-single-digit CAGR growth could be sustained beyond 2028 [41][42] Question: Potential for increased capital expenditure - Management stated that while the current target is $6 billion, there may be opportunities to scale up if project execution remains strong and human capital is sufficient [43][44] Question: Size and complexity of projects - Management clarified that while projects are becoming larger, they remain straightforward in execution, with an average project size around $500 million [49][50] Question: Project backlog and capacity - Management confirmed that they have not turned down any projects due to capital constraints and expect to grow their backlog alongside EBITDA growth [51][53] Question: Strategic decision to focus on transmission - Management explained that focusing on transmission allows for lower-risk, compelling returns while meeting the needs of utility customers [57] Question: Status of Bruce C project - Management reported progress towards FID for Bruce C, with ongoing assessments and funding discussions [58][60] Question: Rate cases and potential toll increases - Management confirmed that several rate cases are in process, with conservative estimates included in forecasts [63] Question: Challenges with contractors and market pressures - Management noted that while industry backlogs are building, they have not faced material impacts yet and are actively monitoring suppliers [64][66]

Group 1 - The "North Gas South Down" energy corridor is China's first natural gas pipeline project using a 1422mm ultra-large diameter, X80 high steel grade, and 12 MPa high pressure level, making it a world-class pipeline project [1] - The project spans 5111 kilometers and passes through 9 provinces, with the northern section completed in December 2019, the middle section in December 2020, and the southern section starting construction in January 2021 [1] - The project has initiated a national leading labor and skills competition to promote safety, environmental protection, engineering quality, innovation, and project progress [1] Group 2 - The West-to-East Gas Transmission Line 4 is another major energy corridor connecting Central Asia and China, with a total length of approximately 3340 kilometers, passing through Xinjiang, Gansu, and Ningxia [2] - The core section from Turpan to Zhongwei is 1745 kilometers long and began construction in September 2022, with a national labor and skills competition launched to enhance project quality and progress [2] - Over 100 participating units and more than 20,000 builders have engaged in the competition, fostering a strong atmosphere for skill improvement and ensuring that the competition follows the pipeline construction [2] Group 3 - The "North Gas South Down" project is expected to achieve full pipeline connectivity 7 months ahead of schedule by December 2, 2024, with an annual gas transmission capacity of 38 billion cubic meters [3] - The West-to-East Gas Transmission Line 4 is scheduled to be operational by June 26, 2025, with an annual gas transmission volume exceeding 15 billion cubic meters, enhancing the reliability and flexibility of energy supply [3] - During the event, a joint activity titled "Model Workers and Craftsmen Enter Campus" was held to inspire youth and promote craftsmanship [3]

Group 1: Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article is that while the "nearshoring" of the U.S. supply chain has progressed, it is primarily concentrated in Mexico, with significant improvements in trade performance but limited growth in investment and production [1][2][5]. Group 2: Trade Performance - From a trade perspective, the U.S. supply chain "nearshoring" has occurred, particularly in Mexico, where the share of imports from Mexico has been increasing since 2018, averaging an annual increase of 1% from 2020 to 2024, and a 3% increase in the first half of 2025 [7][10]. - Mexico's FDI has seen a notable increase, with greenfield investment announcements exceeding the previous average by 45% from 2022 to 2024, but actual FDI inflows only exceeded the previous average by 10% [10][11]. Group 3: Manufacturing and Economic Challenges - Despite the growth in exports, Mexico's manufacturing production has not shown strong growth, with industrial production increasing only 7% compared to an 18% increase in exports from 2019 to May 2025 [17][20]. - Political uncertainty in Mexico has led to a slowdown in investment, with a significant rise in the economic policy uncertainty index and a 25% decline in new investments in 2024 [11][25]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Mexico retains advantages for "nearshoring," including geographical proximity to the U.S., lower labor costs (with wages about one-fifth of U.S. levels), and favorable tariff rates [22][25]. - However, Mexico's capacity to absorb more investment is limited due to its smaller labor force compared to countries like China and India, and ongoing political uncertainties may hinder its ability to attract U.S. capital [25][26]. - The upcoming review of the USMCA in 2026 is a critical observation point, as U.S. interests in enhancing its semiconductor supply chain may lead to more favorable terms for Mexico's electronic industry [26].

Core Viewpoint - The China-Central Asia Gas Pipeline serves as a vital energy corridor, enhancing cooperation between China and Central Asian countries while improving the living standards of local populations [9][17]. Group 1: Project Overview - The China-Central Asia Gas Pipeline is referred to as the "Silk Road" of modern energy, transporting natural gas from Central Asia to eastern coastal regions of China [9]. - The pipeline significantly benefits over 500 million people across 27 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in China, as well as supplying over 3 billion cubic meters of gas annually to Almaty region in Kazakhstan [16]. Group 2: Employee Experiences - Employees like Rustam Ganiev and Liu Yingji have transformed their careers through the pipeline project, with Rustam evolving from a novice to a skilled deputy station manager, while Liu has taken on a leadership role in a remote management office [10][11]. - The working environment is challenging, with extreme weather conditions, yet employees find meaning in their roles as guardians of an energy artery that provides warmth and light to families [11]. Group 3: Cultural Exchange and Teamwork - The collaboration between Chinese and Central Asian employees fosters deep friendships and cultural understanding, with shared experiences in both work and personal life [13][14]. - The project promotes a "respect, tolerance, unity, and harmony" culture, enhancing operational efficiency and employee relations [14]. Group 4: Future Aspirations - Employees express hopes for the project's continued development, aiming to create more job opportunities, train young talent, and improve local infrastructure in Uzbekistan [16]. - The project exemplifies the potential for energy cooperation to deepen political trust and economic integration between China and Central Asian nations, aligning with the Belt and Road Initiative [17].

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, has experienced its largest underperformance against the S&P 500 in decades, attributed to Buffett's impending retirement and investor sell-offs [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Since May 2, when Buffett announced the transfer of control to Greg Abel, Berkshire's Class A shares have dropped by 14%, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500's 11% increase [2]. - The gap in performance is one of the largest since 1990, with only the early pandemic period showing worse quarterly results for Berkshire [3]. - Berkshire's Class A shares reached a record price of $812,855 in May, but there is uncertainty about who is selling these high-vote shares [3]. Group 2: Business Operations - Despite the stock sell-off, Berkshire's subsidiaries, including BNSF Railway and several utility companies, reported profit growth in Q2, with overall operating profit increasing by 8% year-over-year when excluding currency fluctuations [3]. - Berkshire's market valuation has risen to a price-to-book ratio of nearly 1.8, the highest since October 2008 [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Buffett has ceased stock buybacks since May 2024, only repurchasing shares when he believes the price is below intrinsic value [5]. - Recent comments from shareholders suggest that the stock may be overvalued, with expectations that a market correction could prompt Buffett to resume buybacks [6]. - Berkshire has been a net seller of stocks for 11 consecutive quarters, with cash levels reaching 30% of total assets by the end of June [6].

Core Points - The successful commissioning of the Ganning section of the West-to-East Gas Pipeline Phase IV marks a significant milestone in enhancing China's energy security and international oil and gas resource allocation efficiency [1] - The pipeline has an annual gas transmission capacity of 15 billion cubic meters, equivalent to replacing over 27 million tons of standard coal and reducing carbon emissions by approximately 50 million tons [1] - The total gas transmission capacity of the West-to-East Gas Pipeline system will reach "100 billion cubic meters," significantly improving the cross-regional allocation capability of natural gas [1] Group 1 - The West-to-East Gas Pipeline Phase IV is a strategic energy corridor connecting Central Asia and China, following the previous three phases [1] - The Ganning section of the pipeline is 1,162 kilometers long and runs through complex geological conditions and harsh natural environments, including a national nature reserve [1] - The pipeline's construction faced multiple challenges due to the fragile ecosystem and the presence of various protected species along its route [1] Group 2 - After the full commissioning of Phase IV, it will operate in conjunction with Phase II and III, enhancing the reliability and flexibility of China's natural gas transmission system [2] - The pipeline will facilitate the transportation of more gas from Central Asia, Tarim Basin, and coal-to-gas projects in Xinjiang to the Bohai Rim, central, and southeastern coastal regions [2] - This development is expected to have a profound impact on optimizing regional energy structure, improving air quality, and promoting high-quality economic and social development along the pipeline [2]