美国，传来大消息！ 当地时间周三（2025年12月31日），美国总统特朗普签署一项公告，将软体家具、橱柜和浴室柜的关税上调措 施再推迟一年。 彭博社评论此事称，在美国民众对物价水平不满情绪持续升温背景下，特朗普推迟上述上调计划，放缓了其征 税步伐。 据总台环球资讯广播消息，美国《华盛顿邮报》日前刊文指出，尽管美国联邦政府为美国农民推出了规模为 120亿美元的救助计划，但美国农民仍继续在通货膨胀和关税政策的影响下苦苦挣扎。 美国政府日前宣布，将为美国农民提供巨额资金的救助，以应对美关税政策对其农业的"反噬"。文章说，对于 农民、行业协会而言，这项救助计划默认了政府过去一年的政策已经彻底改变了农业，并威胁到他们的生计。 目前尚不清楚的是，这些损害农民利益的政策是否也会破坏总统与他最忠实的选民群体之间的关系。 文章援引美国爱荷华州立大学农业经济学教授查德·哈特（Chad Hart）的话表示，由于拜登政府执政期间通货 膨胀加剧，农民们曾希望现任政府能带来更为有利的经济环境。但美国政府对外国进口商品实施的广泛关税措 施——以及部分国家对进口美国产品的反制措施——都粉碎了这些希望。 文章还表示，对一些农民来说，政府的救助 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court will begin hearing a case on November 5 regarding the legality of tariffs imposed by Trump on global trade partners, which is central to his "America First" trade policy. The ruling is expected to have significant implications but may take months to reach a conclusion [1] Group 1: Legal and Political Context - The Supreme Court's decision will not directly affect tariffs on specific industries such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles [1] - Trump claims that the final ruling will be one of the most important decisions in U.S. history, emphasizing the link between tariffs and national security [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - Although Trump's tariffs have not led to widespread inflation, U.S. businesses, particularly small enterprises, are experiencing additional cost pressures [1] - A significant portion (40%) of U.S. imported goods consists of intermediate products, which are not directly sold to retail consumers, indicating that maintaining tariffs could reduce the competitiveness of U.S. businesses [1]

Group 1 - The recent executive order signed by Trump allows countries that reach trade agreements with the U.S. to benefit from zero tariffs on certain exports to the U.S. [1] - The zero tariff incentive is primarily aimed at goods that the U.S. cannot produce or has insufficient domestic supply, including specific agricultural products, aircraft and parts, and non-patented pharmaceutical ingredients [1] - This approach reflects a "carrot and stick" negotiation strategy, where zero tariffs serve as an incentive while maintaining the threat of high tariffs to ensure compliance from trade partners [5][7] Group 2 - The U.S. manufacturing sector is experiencing a prolonged downturn, with the latest PMI data at 48.7, indicating contraction for six consecutive months [7] - The labor market shows concerning trends, with only 22,000 non-farm jobs added in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, and an unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years [10] - The uncertainty and rising costs from tariff policies are identified as key factors affecting manufacturing, with significant job losses reported in the sector [10][12] Group 3 - Frequent changes in trade policy have led to increased economic uncertainty, resulting in a 6.7% year-over-year decline in factory construction spending in July [12] - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's actions are shifting, with a higher probability of interest rate cuts in September due to economic pressures, despite concerns about inflation [12] - Recent revisions to economic data have been substantial, highlighting the need for caution when interpreting economic indicators, as they may be subject to significant adjustments [12]

Group 1 - The White House announced a plan to build a new banquet hall at a cost of $200 million, which is seen as a long-desired space for large events by past presidents and officials [2][4] - The new banquet hall will cover 90,000 square feet and accommodate 650 people, located in the East Wing of the White House [4] - The funding for the project has raised questions, with Trump suggesting that part of the costs could come from "Chinese payments" related to trade [10][12] Group 2 - Trump's previous trade policies aimed at reducing reliance on China included plans to impose tariffs, which he claimed would fund American projects, but these costs ultimately fell on American consumers [12][14] - The announcement of the banquet hall comes amid criticism from Democrats, who argue that Trump is prioritizing luxury projects over pressing issues like healthcare for millions of Americans [20][22] - The timing of the announcement is notable, as it follows Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve's renovation budget of $2.5 billion, highlighting a perceived double standard in his approach to government spending [24][26]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the imminent implementation of Trump's tariff policies in early April, focusing on the implications for various industries and the potential impact on U.S.-China trade relations [1][2]. Tariff Policy Implementation - Key tariff-related developments set to take effect in early April include the "America First Trade Policy" memorandum investigation, reciprocal tariffs, secondary tariffs on Venezuelan oil imports, and automobile tariffs [1][2]. - The "America First Trade Policy" memorandum, released on January 20, 2025, indicates a shift in Trump's negotiation strategy regarding trade relations with China, moving away from border security as the primary justification for tariffs [2]. Reciprocal Tariffs - The imposition of reciprocal tariffs will consider tariffs, turnover taxes, regulations, and non-tariff trade barriers [3]. - Targeted economies for these tariffs may include India, Brazil, Vietnam, South Korea, and certain sectors in the EU and Japan, as they have higher average tariff rates compared to the U.S. [3][4]. Industry Impact Analysis - The impact of tariffs on exports is non-linear, with industries facing higher cumulative tariff rates experiencing more significant declines in exports to the U.S. in the first two months of the year [5]. - Industries with cumulative tariff rates between 40% and 50%, such as leather goods, automobiles, and wooden products, saw an average export growth decline of 46.2 percentage points compared to the previous year [5]. Labor-Intensive Industries - Labor-intensive industries in China, such as toys, furniture, and footwear, have a high proportion of revenue from U.S. exports, making them more vulnerable to additional cost pressures from tariffs [6]. - The revenue share from U.S. exports for these labor-intensive sectors is notably high, with toys at 32.6%, furniture at 25.0%, and footwear at 24.3% [6]. Macro Economic Trends - The macroeconomic environment shows a decline in industrial enterprise revenue and profit growth in early 2025, with profit margins shifting towards lower-end industries [7]. - The decrease in profit margins is primarily attributed to falling profitability in the upstream mining sector, likely linked to declining coal prices [7].