近日，海关总署公布今年前10个月外贸数据。一组让人有些"意外"的数据引发网友关注和讨论。 据海关统计，2025年前10个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值37.31万亿元，同比增长3.6%。其中，出口22.12万亿元，增长6.2%；进口15.19万亿元，与去年同 期基本持平。进出口连续9个月保持增长，且规模再创同期历史新高。前10个月累计出口规模亦保持同期历史新高。 恰恰是在今年二季度，当地时间4月9日，美国政府所谓"对等关税"政策正式生效，对贸易伙伴实施10%的"最低基准关税"，并针对中国、欧盟、越南等主 要经济体加征更高税率。此后，中国对美出口连续7个月出现两位数下滑。拉长时间维度，从出口规模来看，我国对美出口水平已经回到7年前的水平。 面对美国政府关税威胁等不确定因素，缘何我国外贸出口不降反升，保持强大韧性？支撑外贸稳步增长的动能是什么？哪些因素对关税形成了对冲效应？ 带着一系列疑问，《每日经济新闻》记者详细梳理了近10年外贸数据，并采访了多位专家和企业，详解中国对美出口大幅下滑，但出口总量依旧保持强劲 增长势头背后的秘密。 | 我国外贸"此消彼长" | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Core Insights - Recent consensus between China and the U.S. to expand agricultural trade has led to a significant increase in U.S. soybean futures prices, reaching a 15-month high at over 1100 cents per bushel [1][2] - Despite the positive outlook for potential Chinese purchases, U.S. soybeans remain less competitive compared to Brazilian soybeans due to a 13% tariff [3][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - U.S. soybean futures have surged by 7.26% since October 25, following U.S.-China trade discussions [2] - The main January contract for CBOT soybeans was quoted around 1123 cents per bushel during Asian trading hours on November 6 [2] - Domestic soybean futures in China also saw a rise, with the main contract reaching a five-month high [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - U.S. soybeans face a 13% tariff, while Brazilian and Argentine soybeans only incur a 3% tariff, making U.S. soybeans less competitive [3] - China has shifted its soybean imports towards Brazil due to previous tariffs on U.S. soybeans, leading to a price premium for Brazilian soybeans [3][6] - Current CNF pricing for U.S. soybeans is $500 per ton, slightly higher than Brazilian soybeans, resulting in a higher landed cost in South China [3] Group 3: Future Prospects - Analysts suggest that if China proceeds with soybean purchases, it could significantly reduce U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 2025/2026 season [4] - The nature of future purchases (policy vs. commercial) will determine the competitiveness of U.S. soybeans and the pressure on Brazilian soybeans [4] - Historical data indicates that China has consistently imported over 20 million tons of U.S. soybeans annually, highlighting the importance of the Chinese market for U.S. soybean exports [6]

Market Performance - The market experienced a rebound on November 5, with all three major indices closing in the green: Shanghai Composite Index up 0.23%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.37%, and ChiNext Index up 1.03% [3] - Nearly 3,400 stocks rose, with a total trading volume of 1.87 trillion yuan, a decrease of 45.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [3] Market Resilience - Despite external market fears, A-shares showed resilience, with a low opening leading to a recovery throughout the day [4][6] - Historical patterns indicate that significant low openings often lead to rebounds, supporting the notion that many investors are willing to buy on dips [11] External Influences - Recent external market fluctuations, particularly related to U.S. liquidity issues and government shutdowns, have had a limited direct impact on A-shares [13] - Analysts suggest that the narrative around the U.S. liquidity crisis may be exaggerated, and a potential easing of liquidity pressures could occur once the government reopens [13] Sector Performance - Key sectors contributing to the market's strength included computing hardware, semiconductors, and photovoltaic industries, indicating a broad-based recovery [15] - The brokerage sector, often seen as a barometer for market sentiment, also rebounded after a period of decline, suggesting potential for value re-evaluation as firms adapt to changing market conditions [17] Notable Trends - The electric grid equipment sector showed significant gains, with a year-to-date increase of 47.13%, driven by both speculative and institutional investments [19] - The upcoming launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port is expected to provide substantial policy benefits, further stimulating market interest in related sectors [21] Industry Insights - The energy storage sector is experiencing a boom, with strong demand and supply dynamics, particularly in new energy storage technologies [22] - The photovoltaic industry is reportedly seeing a reduction in losses in upstream segments, indicating a potential turnaround in performance [22]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed resilience despite external market panic, with significant buying activity leading to a recovery in major indices and a notable increase in the number of rising stocks from 330 to nearly 3400 by the close [1] Market Performance - A-shares experienced a low opening but rebounded strongly, demonstrating a pattern of recovery following significant dips [4][5] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 46.67 points, or 1.19%, closing at 3969.25, while the ChiNext Index increased by 97.28 points, or 3.17%, closing at 3166.23 [10] Market Sentiment - The recent market dip was primarily driven by external factors, including a significant drop in U.S. stocks and concerns over liquidity due to the U.S. government shutdown [8] - The panic in the market was largely emotional, with the actual impact on A-shares being relatively minor [7] Sector Performance - Key sectors contributing to the market's recovery included computing hardware, semiconductors, and photovoltaic industries, indicating strong institutional and speculative interest [9][13] - The brokerage sector, often seen as a market bellwether, also rebounded, with analysts noting a potential for value re-evaluation due to structural changes in the industry [11] Policy and Economic Factors - The upcoming launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18 is expected to bring significant policy benefits, including an expansion of zero-tariff goods from 1900 to approximately 6600 items, covering about 74% of products [15] - The energy sector, particularly in electric grid equipment and storage, is gaining traction due to increasing demand for power to support AI technologies and a positive outlook for the photovoltaic and storage industries [16]

Core Viewpoint - In November, the domestic wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel are expected to remain weak due to ongoing supply surplus expectations and the easing of China-U.S. tariff tensions, with macro sentiment supporting a continued weak trend in international oil prices [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The market is anticipated to experience a weak trend in international oil prices as supply surplus expectations persist [1] - The easing of China-U.S. trade tensions is contributing to a recovery in macro sentiment, which may influence oil price movements [1] Group 2: Demand Analysis - As the outdoor infrastructure projects enter the year-end rush, there may be a short-term improvement in oil demand from the logistics transportation sector [1] - However, limited demand for diesel is expected due to declining temperatures in northern regions, which may restrict terminal demand [1] - Gasoline demand is projected to remain stable and subdued, lacking support from holiday travel, with public driving primarily for daily commuting [1] Group 3: Price Forecast - Diesel wholesale prices are expected to face downward pressure, while gasoline wholesale prices may experience fluctuations leading to a potential decline [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on multiple factors including the domestic economic situation, Sino - US tariff frictions, the US government shutdown, and commodity market trends. It suggests a wait - and - see approach for commodities in the short - term, and points out potential opportunities and risks in different commodity sectors [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, the gap between strong expectations and weak reality has widened. In August, economic data showed signs of weakness with characteristics such as slow industrial growth, weak investment, and sluggish consumption. In September, exports were resilient, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. The government has proposed measures to stabilize growth, with new policy - based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan. China's Q3 GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, September's retail sales growth slowed to 3% compared to August, and industrial value - added growth accelerated to 6.5%. Housing prices in 70 cities declined in September, with second - and third - tier cities' second - hand housing prices falling by 0.7% and 0.6% respectively [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have intensified. As the extension of Sino - US tariffs is about to expire on November 10, the US has taken multiple measures such as adding Chinese companies to the entity list and imposing tariffs on various products. China has responded with measures like export controls on rare - earth technology and charging special port fees on US ships. Both sides have agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations [2] - As of October 22, the US government shutdown has entered its 22nd day, becoming the second - longest in history. Economic data releases have been delayed, and the market may have underestimated the severity of the shutdown. Japan's Prime Minister is preparing economic stimulus measures expected to exceed 13.9 trillion yen from last year [3] Commodity Market - For commodities, a wait - and - see approach is recommended in the short - term due to high volatility in previously bullish sectors. The black sector is still affected by downstream demand expectations, and the "anti - involution" situation should be noted. The non - ferrous sector has long - term supply constraints and is boosted by global easing expectations. The energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium - term, with OPEC+ planning to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 2.981 million barrels last week. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of products like methanol, caustic soda, and urea is worth attention. Agricultural products are driven by tariff and inflation expectations but need fundamental signals and are affected by Sino - US negotiations. For precious metals, short - term price fluctuations are risky, but there are long - term buying opportunities at low prices. On October 22, spot gold fell below $4,070 per ounce, with a decline of over $70 per ounce in 30 minutes [4] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Important News - On October 21, Chinese Minister Wang Wentao had a video call with the EU Commissioner, discussing key economic and trade issues. China's rare - earth export control is a normal measure to improve the export control system [7] - The US government shutdown may last until November and exceed the 35 - day record of Trump's first term [7] - Japan's Prime Minister is preparing economic stimulus measures centered around three pillars: anti - inflation measures, investment in growth industries, and national security [7] - US API crude oil inventory decreased last week, along with changes in other oil product inventories [7] - Russian President Putin will not attend the G20 summit in South Africa in person [7] - Spot gold prices dropped sharply on October 22 [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic economic expectations are strong but the reality is weak. In August, China's economic data showed signs of weakness, and in September, exports were resilient. The M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. To address external pressure, China has proposed policies to stabilize growth, with new policy - based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan. The GDP in Q3 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in September slowed to 3% compared to August, while the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year. The housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities declined month - on - month in September [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have intensified. As the extension of Sino - US tariffs is about to expire on November 10, the US has taken multiple measures such as adding Chinese companies to the entity list and imposing tariffs on various imported products. China has responded with measures like export controls on rare earth technology and imposing special port fees on US ships. The two sides agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [2] - The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data. The US 9 - month Markit manufacturing and service PMI decreased slightly. The market has underestimated the severity of the shutdown, and attention should be paid to its development [3] - For commodities, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The black sector is affected by downstream demand expectations, the non - ferrous sector is constrained by long - term supply, the energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium term, the "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector is worthy of attention, agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations, and short - term risks in precious metals should be guarded against [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic economic situation: In August, China's economic data weakened, with characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption". In September, exports were resilient, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. The GDP in Q3 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in September slowed to 3% compared to August, and the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year. Housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities declined month - on - month in September. The government has proposed policies to stabilize growth, with new policy - based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan. On October 21, the A - share market strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3900 points and the ChiNext Index rising more than 3%. The AI computing hardware sector soared, while sectors such as coal, gas, and precious metals declined [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions: As the extension of Sino - US tariffs is about to expire on November 10, the US has taken multiple measures such as adding Chinese companies to the entity list and imposing tariffs on various imported products. China has responded with measures like export controls on rare earth technology and imposing special port fees on US ships. The two sides agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [2] - US government shutdown: On October 15, the US Republican Party's temporary appropriation bill failed to advance in the Senate. The release of multiple economic data has been delayed. The US 9 - month Markit manufacturing and service PMI decreased slightly. The market has underestimated the severity of the shutdown, and attention should be paid to its development [3] Commodity Market - Overall strategy: It is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The volatility of previously bullish sectors is high, and the risk of price fluctuations is large [4] - Black sector: Still affected by downstream demand expectations, attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" situation [4] - Non - ferrous sector: Long - term supply constraints remain unrelieved, and it has been boosted by global easing expectations recently [4] - Energy sector: The medium - term supply is considered relatively loose. OPEC + announced that eight oil - producing countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November [4] - Chemical sector: The "anti - involution" space of products such as methanol, caustic soda, and urea is worthy of attention [4] - Agricultural products: Driven by tariffs and inflation expectations in the short term, but need to wait for fundamental signals and pay attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiations [4] - Precious metals: The market has overreacted in the short term, and the lease rates of gold and silver are relatively high. Short - term price fluctuations should be guarded against, and opportunities to buy on dips can be grasped in the long term [4] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Important News - Stock market: On October 21, the market strengthened throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3900 points and the ChiNext Index rising more than 3%. More stocks rose than fell, with over 4,600 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets rising, and the trading volume reached 1.89 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.36%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.06%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.02% [6] - International news: On October 21, the Japanese cabinet led by Ishiba Shigeru resigned, and Takamachi Sanae was elected as the new prime minister. European leaders signed a joint statement supporting an immediate cease - fire and peace talks, while the Russian foreign minister said the "immediate cease - fire" plan violated previous agreements [3][6] - Commodity news: On October 21, spot gold fell below $4,200 per ounce, with an intraday decline of 3.8%, the largest decline in four years [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - China's economic growth slowed in September, with a widening gap between domestic and external demand. Domestic economic data in August showed signs of weakness, while exports in September were resilient. The M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. Amid increasing external tariff pressure, China has introduced frequent growth - stabilizing policies [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have intensified, and there is a risk of tariff escalation before the APEC Summit in South Korea from October 28th to November 1st [2] - Attention should be paid to the duration of the US government shutdown, as the market has not fully priced in the severity of the issue [3] - In the commodity market, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach in the near term. Each commodity sector has its own characteristics and risks [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, the gap between strong expectations and weak reality has widened. In August, economic data showed "slow industry, weak investment, and tepid consumption." In September, exports were resilient, and the M2 - M1 gap hit a new low for the year. External tariff pressure increased, and China introduced growth - stabilizing policies. The Third Quarter GDP increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and 5.2% for the first three quarters. Industrial added value in September increased by 6.5% year - on - year, while social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 3%. Fixed - asset investment continued to decline [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have escalated. The delay in Sino - US tariff implementation will expire on November 10th. The US has taken a series of measures such as adding Chinese enterprises to the entity list and imposing tariffs on imports, and China has responded with counter - measures. There is a risk of tariff escalation before the APEC Summit in South Korea [2] - The US government shutdown issue persists. The Republican temporary appropriation bill failed to advance in the Senate, and economic data releases have been delayed. The market has not fully priced in the severity of the shutdown [3] Commodity Market - In the commodity market, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The black sector is dragged down by downstream demand expectations; the non - ferrous sector has long - term supply constraints but is boosted by global easing expectations; the energy sector has a relatively loose medium - term supply; the "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector is worthy of attention; agricultural products are driven by tariff and inflation expectations but need fundamental signals; precious metals have short - term price volatility risks but long - term buying opportunities [4] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Key News - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in Beijing. The central bank kept the one - year and five - year LPR unchanged. China's GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and 4.8% in the third quarter. Social consumer goods retail总额 in September increased by 3% year - on - year. The national urban survey unemployment rate in September was 5.2%. The stock market showed mixed trends, with coal and gas sectors rising and precious metals sector falling. Sino - US officials agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations soon. The US will impose tariffs on trucks and buses starting from November 1st. Japan's Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party reached an agreement on coalition government [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View of the Report - The crude oil end still exerts pressure, and the fuel oil market shows a differentiated structure. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively stronger than the low - sulfur fuel oil market, but both face certain uncertainties and resistance [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Contents Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 0.08% at 2,646 yuan/ton, while the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.55% at 3,079 yuan/ton [1]. - Due to the loosening fundamentals and potential tariff frictions, the crude oil price has been weak recently, suppressing the overall energy sector. There are many uncertainties in the macro and geopolitical aspects, so caution is needed regarding the short - term trend of the crude oil end [1]. - In terms of fuel oil fundamentals, there is a differentiation with high - sulfur fuel oil being stronger than low - sulfur fuel oil. The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is relatively firm. Russia's supply is restricted, and the continuous drone attacks in Ukraine have led to more unexpected refinery overhauls. New sanctions from the UK on October 15 and the US's intensified sanctions on Iran have also affected their oil trade. However, the upward drivers of the high - sulfur oil market are also limited based on current valuation and supply - demand expectations [1]. - The low - sulfur fuel oil market has been weak. Supply from Africa, South America, etc. has increased, and the market supply is abundant. In the context of intensified trade disputes, the shipping and marine fuel demand face potential risks, and the actual marine fuel consumption has been weak. The latest September sales volume in Singapore decreased by 4% month - on - month. The low - sulfur fuel oil downstream demand is more concentrated and more sensitive to tariff frictions. With the restart of Dangote refinery's RFCC unit, the local supply pressure is expected to ease [2]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, mainly on short - term wait - and - see [3]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, mainly on short - term wait - and - see [3]. - Cross - variety: No recommended strategy [3]. - Cross - period: No recommended strategy [3]. - Spot - futures: No recommended strategy [3]. - Options: No recommended strategy [3].

Core Insights - High levels of debt and rising financing costs are eroding policy space and may lead to cross-border spillover risks [1][10] - Despite escalating trade protectionism, the global economy is expected to show resilience in 2025, supported by factors such as preemptive consumption and investment by businesses and households, as well as a weaker dollar [1][7] - Expansionary fiscal policies in major developed economies may boost short-term economic growth but increase medium- to long-term risks due to high debt levels and rising financing costs [1][9] Trade Tensions and Global Adaptation - The IMF is closely monitoring trade tensions, emphasizing the need for constructive solutions to maintain an open and fair competitive environment [3] - Global businesses and investors are adapting to ongoing trade policy uncertainties, with trade flows shifting towards third countries as a response to U.S.-China trade dynamics [4][5] - The current high tariff environment is nearly universal, complicating corporate decision-making beyond just tariffs [5][6] Impact of Tariffs - The impact of trade protectionism on economic activity and prices has been limited so far, with effective U.S. tariff rates around 18%, lower than previous estimates [7][8] - A weaker dollar has supported global trade flows and eased inflationary pressures in emerging markets, allowing for more accommodative monetary policies [7][8] - As the initial effects of preemptive consumption fade, cost pressures may eventually be passed on to consumers, leading to persistent inflation rather than a one-time shock [8] Spillover Effects of Fiscal Policies - Expansionary fiscal policies in major economies are observed to have short-term positive effects on economic activity, partially offsetting the negative impacts of tariffs [9][11] - High sovereign debt levels are raising concerns about public finance sustainability, leading to increased borrowing costs and potential cross-border impacts [11] - The rapid rise of stablecoins may introduce new vulnerabilities in cross-border finance, potentially leading to systemic risks [11] Government Shutdown and Monetary Policy - The IMF is monitoring the economic impact of the recent U.S. government shutdown, which historically has had limited long-term effects [12][13] - The Federal Reserve has various methods to assess economic conditions and will base its policy decisions on available information [13][14]