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广发期货日报-20250827
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 11:46
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held this week. The direction of monetary policy in the second half of the year is crucial for the equity market. A - shares have risen significantly in the past month and are expected to enter a high - level shock waiting for a direction decision [2]. - The bond market sentiment is expected to continue to stabilize. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may face resistance at 1.78% - 1.8%, corresponding to support for the T2512 contract at 107.4 - 107.6 [2]. - Gold is oscillating strongly, while silver long positions above $38 should be held. The shipping index is weakly oscillating, and short positions in the 10 - contract should be continued [2]. - Steel product demand has stopped falling and rebounded, and can be bought. Iron ore follows steel prices, and should be bought at low levels. Due to a coal mine accident, coking coal, coke futures are expected to rebound and should be bought at low levels [2]. - For non - ferrous metals, copper inventory is decreasing near the peak season, while alumina has a supply surplus. Aluminum alloy consumption shows a marginal improvement trend [2]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil is under pressure from the macro - level, and short - term unilateral trading should be on the sidelines. Urea has a clear supply increase, and short - term trading should be in a band. PX and PTA are still recommended for long - positions [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, soybean meal and rapeseed meal have long - term bullish expectations. Palm oil is running strongly, while sugar should be short - held [2]. - For special commodities, the impact of the coking coal incident has weakened, and glass and soda ash should be short - sold. Natural rubber should be short - sold if raw material supply increases smoothly [2]. - In the new energy sector, polysilicon has falling prices and should be observed, while lithium carbonate has weak sentiment and should also be observed [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares are expected to enter high - level shock. It is recommended to buy put options to protect long positions or partially take profit on previous positions [2]. - **Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment is expected to stabilize. Long positions can be lightly tried on pullbacks [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is oscillating strongly. A bullish spread strategy can be constructed, and silver long positions above $38 should be held [2]. Commodity Futures - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: It is weakly oscillating, and short positions in the 10 - contract should be continued [2]. - **Steel Products**: Demand has stopped falling and rebounded. Long positions can be tried for hot - rolled coils and rebar at reference prices of 3140 and 3380 yuan respectively [2]. - **Iron Ore**: It follows steel prices. Long positions can be taken at low levels in the range of 770 - 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Due to a coal mine accident, long positions can be taken at low levels [2]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increases has been implemented, and long positions can be taken at low levels [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Copper inventory is decreasing near the peak season. Alumina has a supply surplus, and aluminum alloy consumption is improving [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil should be on the sidelines in the short - term. Urea should be traded in a band. PX, PTA, and short - fiber are recommended for long - positions [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal should have long - term long positions. Palm oil is running strongly, and sugar should be short - held [2]. - **Special Commodities**: Glass and soda ash should be short - sold. Natural rubber should be short - sold if raw material supply increases smoothly [2]. - **New Energy**: Polysilicon and lithium carbonate should be observed [2].